The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]

Re: ... Burnt Tortilla Edition ...

Everyone can look at CHV (and SJE and CHI) and point to FCD's amazing late season run in 2009 and say they're not dead yet, they just need to make a great run like FCD's. But these teams all need over 2.00 PPG to remain playoff competitive precisely because they're teams that don't seem to have what it takes to make a great run.

That's why, to me, when your despair numbers start edging over 2.00 PPG, you are, effectively, toast. Maybe not technically dead, but the grim reaper is approaching. Perhaps something crazy will happen, but usually it doesn't.

Plus, let us not forget what happened to FCD in the 2009 playoffs ... oh, that's right: they didn't ultimately make the playoffs.

I'd like to be wrong about all this. I'd love to see CHV (or SJE or CHI) make some crazy run and maybe even get themselves into the playoffs. How cool would that be! But realistically, I just don't think it's going to happen. So that's what I go with here when I try to characterize the playoff picture.

 

Just for reference, I think this was pretty much the summation of our fairly exhaustive MLS tie-breaker discussion in last year's version of this thread:

MLS Tie Breaking Procedures

We have on good authority that that's how it all works.

 

... Houston 1836ed Edition ...

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  LAG  28  06  15  10  03  55  1.96  67  73  19  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
02  RSL  26  08  13  06  07  45  1.73  59  69  15  36  10  --  ----  ----  W
03  SEA  28  06  13  09  06  48  1.71  58  66  12  33  07  --  ----  ----  W
04  FCD  28  06  13  07  08  46  1.64  56  64  10  31  09  --  ----  ----  W
05  CMB  28  06  11  08  09  41  1.46  50  59  05  26  14  02  0.67  0.37  E
06  SKC  28  06  10  10  08  40  1.43  49  58  04  25  15  03  0.83  0.53  E
07  COL  29  05  10  11  08  41  1.41  48  56  02  23  14  02  0.80  0.44  W
08  DCU  25  09  08  10  07  34  1.36  46  61  07  28  21  09  1.22  1.02  E
09  PHI  27  07  08  12  07  36  1.33  45  57  03  24  19  07  1.29  1.03  E
10  HOU  29  05  08  12  09  36  1.24  42  51  --  18  19  07  1.80  1.44  E
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  POR  27  07  09  06  12  33  1.22  42  54  --  21  22  10  1.71  1.46  W
12  NYR  27  07  06  15  06  33  1.22  42  54  --  21  22  10  1.71  1.46  E
13  CHV  28  06  07  10  11  31  1.11  38  49  --  16  24  12  2.33  2.03  W
14  SJE  27  07  06  11  10  29  1.07  37  50  --  17  26  14  2.29  2.03  W
15  CHI  27  07  04  15  08  27  1.00  34  48  --  15  28  16  2.57  2.32  E
16  NER  28  06  05  12  11  27  0.96  33  45  --  12  28  16  3.00  2.70  E
17  TFC  29  05  05  12  12  27  0.93  32  42  --  09  28  16  ----  ----  E
18  VAN  27  07  04  10  13  22  0.81  28  43  --  10  33  21  ----  ----  W

Current AD-Baseline: 43^ (Down 1 since the last update.)[/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (PPG x GR)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]

- Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then REVERSE alphabetical.*
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
- Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
- Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]

Asterisks

* In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

^ Set by HOU’s current 42 point (1.25 PPG) pace.

Notes

Way to blow what little advantage you had, HOU. The door just opened a little wider for POR and NYR.

 

... Counter-Revolution Edition ...

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  28  06  15  10  03  55  1.96  67  73  19  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
02  RSL  26  08  13  06  07  45  1.73  59  69  15  34  10  --  ----  ----  W
03  SEA  28  06  13  09  06  48  1.71  58  66  12  31  07  --  ----  ----  W
04  FCD  28  06  13  07  08  46  1.64  56  64  10  29  09  --  ----  ----  W
05  CMB  28  06  11  08  09  41  1.46  50  59  05  24  14  02  0.67  0.62  E
06  SKC  28  06  10  10  08  40  1.43  49  58  04  23  15  03  0.83  0.79  E
07  COL  29  05  10  11  08  41  1.41  48  56  02  21  14  02  0.80  0.74  W
08  DCU  25  09  08  10  07  34  1.36  46  61  07  26  21  09  1.22  1.19  E
09  PHI  27  07  08  12  07  36  1.33  45  57  03  22  19  07  1.29  1.24  E
10  POR  28  06  10  06  12  36  1.29  44  54  --  19  19  07  1.50  1.45  W
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  HOU  29  05  08  12  09  36  1.24  42  51  --  16  19  07  1.80  1.74  E
12  NYR  27  07  06  15  06  33  1.22  42  54  --  19  22  10  1.71  1.67  E
13  CHV  28  06  07  10  11  31  1.11  38  49  --  14  24  12  2.33  2.29  W
14  SJE  27  07  06  11  10  29  1.07  37  50  --  15  26  14  2.29  2.24  W
15  CHI  27  07  04  15  08  27  1.00  34  48  --  13  28  16  2.57  2.53  E
16  NER  29  05  05  12  12  27  0.93  32  42  --  07  28  16  ----  ----  E
17  TFC  29  05  05  12  12  27  0.93  32  42  --  07  28  16  ----  ----  E
18  VAN  27  07  04  10  13  22  0.81  28  43  --  08  33  21  ----  ----  W

Current AD-Baseline: 45^ (Up 2 since the last update.)[/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (PPG x GR)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]

- Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.*
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
- Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
- Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]

Asterisks

* In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

^ Set by POR’s current 44 point (1.29 PPG) pace.

Notes

And that's how NER's season ended. Their despair numbers are now both well above 3.00 PPG. See you next year!

Huge, huge win for POR. They've clawed their way into the top ten, and in the process raised the AD-Baseline by 2 points. If HOU and NYR want to remain playoff competitive, they need to win on Saturday. Especially HOU, who having played one more game than either POR or NYR, has zero margin for error. Indeed, they're already relying on another team making an error.

 

Beyond that, however, at first glance I don't think the COL loss really made all that much difference. But if they can't get 4 or more points out of SJE, FCD, RSL and @VAN then that'll make a big difference.

 

... Unmoved Table Edition ...

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  29  05  16  10  03  58  2.00  68  73  16  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
02  RSL  27  07  14  06  07  48  1.78  60  69  12  34  06  --  ----  ----  W
03  SEA  29  05  14  09  06  51  1.76  60  66  09  31  03  --  ----  ----  W
04  FCD  29  05  13  07  09  46  1.59  54  61  04  26  08  --  ----  ----  W
05  CMB  29  05  11  08  10  41  1.41  48  56  --  21  13  --  0.80  0.84  E
06  PHI  28  06  09  12  07  39  1.39  47  57  --  22  15  02  1.00  1.03  E
07  SKC  29  05  10  10  09  40  1.38  47  55  --  20  14  01% 1.00  1.04  E
08  COL  30  04  10  11  09  41  1.37  46  53  --  18  13  --  1.00  1.05  W
09  DCU  26  08  08  10  08  34  1.31  44  58  01  23  20  07  1.38  1.40  E
10  HOU  30  04  09  12  09  39  1.30  44  51  --  16  15  02  1.50  1.55  E
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  POR  28  06  10  06  12  36  1.29  44  54  --  19  18  05  1.50  1.53  W
12  NYR  28  06  07  15  06  36  1.29  44  54  --  19  18  05  1.50  1.53  E
13  CHI  28  06  05  15  08  30  1.07  36  48  --  13  24  11  2.50  2.53  E
14  CHV  29  05  07  10  12  31  1.07  36  46  --  11  23  10  2.80  2.84  W
15  SJE  28  06  06  11  11  29  1.04  35  47  --  12  25  12  2.67  2.70  W
16  TFC  30  04  06  12  12  30  1.00  34  42  --  07  24  11  ----  ----  E
17  NER  29  05  05  12  12  27  0.93  32  42  --  07  27  14  ----  ----  E
18  VAN  28  06  04  10  14  22  0.79  27  40  --  05  32  19  ----  ----  W

Current AD-Baseline: 45^ (Unchanged since the last update.) [/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]

- Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then REVERSE alphabetical.*
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
- Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
- Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]

Asterisks

* In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

^ Set by HOU’s current 44 point (1.30 PPG) pace.

% SKC holds the first tie-breaker over VAN. Therefore, despite a WS# of 1, they have escaped WS contention.

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW  HD  HL  AW  AD  AL  PCE[/U]
01  LAG  29  58  15  14  10  05  00  06  05  03  -01
02  SEA  29  51  15  14  08  04  03  06  05  03  -08
03  RSL  27  48  15  12  10  03  02  04  03  05  -09
04  FCD  29  46  15  14  08  03  04  05  04  05  -13
05  DCU  26  34  12  14  03  06  03  05  04  05  -16
06  SKC  29  40  14  15  07  05  02  03  05  07  -17
07  COL  30  41  14  16  05  07  02  05  04  07  -17
08  NYR  28  36  13  15  05  06  02  02  09  04  -18
09  CMB  29  41  15  14  08  05  02  03  03  08  -18
10  PHI  28  39  15  13  06  08  01  03  04  06  -19
11  HOU  30  39  15  15  09  03  03  00  09  06  -21
12  POR  28  36  15  13  09  02  04  01  04  08  -22
13  CHI  28  30  14  14  04  08  02  01  07  06  -26
14  CHV  29  31  14  15  04  04  06  03  06  06  -26
15  SJE  28  29  15  13  04  07  04  02  04  07  -29
16  VAN  28  22  12  16  04  05  03  00  05  11  -30
17  NER  29  27  14  15  04  06  04  01  06  08  -30
18  TFC  30  30  15  15  05  06  04  01  06  08  -30

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]         HPPG             APPG[/U]
01  LAG  2.33    01  LAG  1.64
02  RSL  2.20    02  SEA  1.64
03  HOU  2.00    03  DCU  1.36
04  CMB  1.93    04  FCD  1.36
05  POR  1.93    05  RSL  1.25
06  SEA  1.87    06  COL  1.19
07  SKC  1.86    07  CHV  1.00
08  FCD  1.80    08  PHI  1.00
09  PHI  1.73    09  NYR  1.00
10  NYR  1.62    10  SKC  0.93
11  COL  1.57    11  CMB  0.86
12  CHI  1.43    12  SJE  0.77
13  VAN  1.42    13  CHI  0.71
14  TFC  1.40    14  NER  0.60
15  NER  1.29    15  TFC  0.60
16  SJE  1.27    16  HOU  0.60
17  DCU  1.25    17  POR  0.54
18  CHV  1.14    18  VAN  0.31 [/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]      WK28  WK29  WK30  WK31  WK32[/U]
CHI:   NER  @RSL  ----   FCD   CMB
      ----  @HOU  ----  @DCU  ----
CMB:   LAG  @SKC  ----  @NER  @CHI
      ----   DCU  ----  ----  ----
COL:   SJE   FCD  ----   RSL  @VAN
CHV:  @DCU   PHI  ----  @LAG   SEA
       TFC  ----  ----  ----  ----
DCU:   CHV  @PHI  ----  @VAN   POR
       RSL  @CMB  ----   CHI   SKC
FCD:   HOU  @COL  ----  @CHI  @SJE
      ----  ----  ----   VAN  ----
HOU:  @FCD   CHI  ----  @POR   LAG
LAG:  @CMB   RSL  @NYR   CHV  @HOU
NER:  @CHI   SEA   SJE   CMB  @TFC
NYR:   RSL  @TFC   LAG  @SKC   PHI
       POR  ----  ----  ----  ----
PHI:  @SKC   DCU  @SEA   TFC  @NYR
      ----  @CHV  ----  ----  ----
POR:   SJE  @VAN  ----   HOU  @DCU
      @NYR  ----  ----  ----  @RSL
RSL:  @NYR   CHI  @VAN  @COL   POR
      @DCU  @LAG  ----  ----  ----
SEA:  @VAN  @NER   PHI   SJE  @CHV
SJE:  @POR   SKC  @NER  @SEA   FCD
      @COL  ----  ----  ----  ----
SKC:   PHI   CMB  ----   NYR  @DCU
      ----  @SJE  ----  ----  ----
TFC:  @CHV   NYR  ----  @PHI   NER
VAN:   SEA   POR   RSL   DCU   COL
      ----  ----  ----  @FCD  ---- 
 [/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule[/U]
(Factoring Opponent Home and Away Performance)

01  LAG:  1.56
02  HOU:  1.52
03  CMB:  1.51
04  SJE:  1.49
06  PHI:  1.41
07  CHI:  1.38
05  CHV:  1.37
08  RSL:  1.35
09  POR:  1.31
10  VAN:  1.30
11  NYR:  1.28
12  NER:  1.22
13  COL:  1.20
15  DCU:  1.19
14  SEA:  1.12
16  TFC:  1.12
17  SKC:  1.07
18  FCD:  1.04 [/B]

Code:

[B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U]

[URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL] [URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL]
[URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL]
[URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoffstandings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/competition-rules-and-regulations"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL]
[URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] 

Please suggest others.[/B]

Notes

Amazingly little happened this weekend. A whole lot could have happened. All sorts of drama. But the way the results worked out, it didn’t. Nothing really happened.

DCU could have taken a huge leap forward with a win against SEA, but the (predictable) loss had only the slightest negative effect on their playoff positioning. HOU could have taken a big drop with a loss, but they won. But because they have so few games left, their playoff hopes are just as iffy as they were last week. POR and NYR both won, so neither gained nor lost any advantage over each other.

The only thing that really changed since last week is that instead of being spread out very slightly over a small PPG range, this week DCU, HOU, POR, and NYR are all, effectively, stacked up in the middle of the table at about 1.30 PPG – which translates to 44 PTS in a season. (Some will want to put COL into this group. I don’t. COL has 4 games left. I think they need 1 win and 1 draw to be reasonably assured a playoff spot. That’s a pretty low bar – much lower than DCU, HOU, POR, and NYR. You see this clearly in the despair numbers.)

If one of these teams could just put together a decent run, even just a little unbeaten run, they’d probably be able to break out of the pack. But it may be that none of these teams are really capable of that.

Both DCU and HOU are primed to plummet. HOU is walking into a buzz saw. It cannot afford to drop points, and it’s looking at the second toughest schedule in the league.

DCU has the luxury of more games in hand than anyone else in the league (That is why they haven’t yet been eliminated from the SS race, though that’s only a 3-way tie-breaker technicality since they’d lose one the second tie-breaker in a 2-way scenario with LAG.) But having all those games in hand means that DCU doesn’t actually have a whole lot of points in the bank. Their PPG is right up there with NYR, HOU and POR, but they trail all those teams in PTS. If DCU doesn’t convert its games in hand into points, it will fall and fall fast. The question is whether DCU has the depth to convert those games into points. They may not.

Don’t bother looking toward next weekend yet. This Wednesday features three games with DCU, NYR and POR. Little was decided this weekend, much may be decided on Wednesday.

What else? If LAG continues on their current pace, they’d end the season at 68 PTS. To beat that sort of pace and claim the SS, RSL would have to win the rest of their games. Baring something crazy, the SS race is close to being effectively over.

 

Re: ... Burnt Tortilla Edition ...

CHI would likely need around 2.50 PPG in their remaining games to become even barely playoff competitive.

 

Well, although I think RapidStorm is right about this thread, I also think a bit of kvetching about the current rules is inevitable. (Just wait for my annual rant about the tie-breaking procedures! That's always awesome.) That said, the best way to deal with those flights away from what this thread is really supposed to be about, which is the on the ground realities of the table under the current rules, is just to move on from them.

So moving on ...

---

Thinking about it now, I gave NYR and POR short shrift above. Let me mention a couple things about their situation.

Despite their wins over the weekend, both of these teams remain in really precarious positions.

NYR hosts RSL on Wednesday. If they lose, which is not out of the realm of realistic results, their prospects start to looking horrible. If they win, things look great. Right now I'm saying they need about 1.50 PPG in their remaining games to stay playoff competitive. A loss to RSL would mean they'd need about 1.80 PPG in their final 4 games. 2W-1D-1L gets you close to that, but to pass that bar you'd need 2W-2D-0L. If NYR beats RSL, they start to look really good, requiring only about 1.20 PPG in this final 4 games to stay playoff competitive (which would be less than their season PPG average thus far). That's about 1W-2D-1L.

The numbers are exactly the same for POR, but POR is hosting SJE -- a big, big advantage for POR.

A draw for either team would wound both teams, but probably not fatally.

So bottom line on Wednesday for both POR and NYR:

Win: HD# drops from 1.50 PPG to 1.20 PPG
Lose: HD# rises from 1.50 PPG to 1.80 PPG
Draw: HD# rises from 1.50 PPG to 1.60 PPG