Superdraft Thread

Discussion in 'Statistics and Analysis' started by ChrisE, Feb 3, 2004.

  1. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Well, it's been days since there was a new post here. I think there's a lot of interesting possibilities to research from the superdraft; unfortunately, nothing I've done has really seemed interesting enough to put up here. So I'm going to start by simply trying to compile a list of the P-40's drafted, but will try to use this thread for a number of things.


    Code:
    [size=1]
    2004			             Club	Number	Round	Age	Min.
    Adu, Freddy	F	P-40	D.C.	1	1	14.62	
    Marshall, Chad	D	Stanford	Columbus	2	1	19.40	
    Cochrane, Ryan	D	S. Clara	San Jose	5	1	20.44	
    Nunez, Ramon	M	SMU	Dallas	6	1	18.17	
    Goodson, Clarence	D	Maryland	Dallas	7	1	21.66	
    Dempsey, Clint	M	Furman	New Eng.	8	1	20.85	
    Cronin, Steve	GK	S. Clara	San Jose	10	1	20.63	
    Gardner, Josh	M	Cincinnati	L.A.	13	2	21.34	
    Grabavoy, Ned	M	Indiana	L.A.	14	2	20.54	
    Bradley, Michael	M	P-40	Metrostars	36	4	16.46	
    							
    2003							
    Eskandarian, Alecko	F	Virginia	D.C.	1	1	20.52	728
    Clark, Ricardo	M	Furman	Metrostars	2	1	19.93	2590
    Jaqua, Nate	F	Portland	Chicago	3	1	21.22	712
    Magee, Mike	F	P-40	Metrostars	4	1	18.37	1709
    Stokes, David	D	UNC	D.C.	5	1	20.63	0
    Gonzalez, Guillermo	M	P-40	L.A.	8	1	17.03	129
    Carroll, Brian	M	Wake	D.C.	11	2	21.49	0
    Gaven, Eddie	M	P-40	Metrostars	12	2	16.23	691
    Alvarez, Arturo	M	P-40	San Jose	13	2	17.55	655
    Thompson, Jason	F	E. Ill.	Dallas	15	2	21.15	0
    Lewis, Ricky	D	Clemson	L.A.	20	2	20.63	798
    Pause, Logan	M	UNC	Chicago	24	3	21.40	1354
    LeBlanc, Jacob	M	Virginia	Metrostars	42	5	21.96	225
    							
    2002							
    Davis, Brad	M	St. Louis	Metrostars	3	1	20.19	1246
    Mapp, Justin	M	P-40	D.C.	4	1	17.24	28
    Gray, Kelly	M	Portland	Chicago	5	1	20.77	1780
    Martino, Kyle	M	Virginia	Columbus	8	1	20.91	1455
    Stone, Jordan	M	P-40	Dallas	15	2	17.83	91
    Capano, Craig	M	P-40	Chicago	17	2	16.52	92
    							
    2001							
    Carrieri, Chris	F	UNC	San Jose	1	1	20.72	1081
    Quaranta, Santino	F	P-40	D.C.	8	1	16.26	949
    Bardales, Isaias	F	S.J. St.	L.A.	11	1	21.41	270
    Burciaga, Jose	D	P-40	K.C.	12	1	19.17	93
    Barclay, Devin	F	P-40	Tampa Bay	14	2	17.77	1324
    Johnson, Edward	F	P-40	Dallas	19	2	16.79	263
    Downing, Nick	D	Maryland	New Eng.	21	2	20.98	279
    Buddle, Edson	F	L. Island	Columbus	27	3	19.65	556
    Saavedra, Miguel	M	P-40	Dallas	67	6	17.54	0
    							
    2000							
    Garcia, Nick	D	Indiana	K.C.	2	1	20.77	2916
    Bocanegra, Carlos	D	UCLA	Chicago	4	1	20.64	2402
    Califf, Danny	D	Maryland	L.A.	6	1	19.83	1518
    Convey, Bobby	M	P-40	D.C.	12	1	16.64	1614
    Pierce, Rusty	D	UNC-G'b.	New Eng.	14	2	20.48	2600
    Salas, Sergio	F	P-40	D.C.	27	3	18.82	18
    Asad, Shaker	M	N.C. State	New Eng.	31	3	20.41	246
    Cooks, Micah	M	P-40	D.C.	60	5	18.54	165
    [/b][/size]
    (Age refers to their age as of 1/16, whatever year they were drafted; minutes refers to minutes played as a rookie)

    (P.S. Is this chart legible to everyone? I did my best to line up the rows, but I'm always suspicious.)
     
  2. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Chart looks good to me.

    By the way, do you have a list of P-40's by year of birth handy? There seem to have been few born in 1980, and I'm wondering how pronounced that pattern is.

    Thx.
     
  3. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Here's what I came up with. From 2000 on, there really were very few P-40's born in 1980. I don't think there were many '80s who came into the league before 2000, either ... maybe one from Trinidad?

    Code:
    [size=1]
    Year  Drafted  Name
    89     1-04    Adu, Freddy
    
    87    36-04    Bradley, Michael
    
    86     8-03    Gonzalez, Memo
          12-03    Gaven, Eddie
    
    85     6-04    Nunez, Ramon
          13-03    Alvarez, Arturo
          17-02    Capano, Craig
    
    84     2-04    Marshall, Chad
           4-03    Magee, Mike
           4-02    Mapp, Justin
          15-02    Stone, Jordan
           8-01    Quaranta, Santino
          19-01    Johnson, Eddie
    
    83     5-04    Cochrane, Ryan
           8-04    Dempsey, Clint
          10-04    Cronin, Steve
          14-04    Grabavoy, Ned
           2-03    Clark, Ricardo
          ND-03    Baumstark, Clint?
          14-01    Barclay, Devin
          67-01    Saavedra, Miguel
          12-00    Convey, Bobby
    
    82     7-04    Goodson, Clarence
          13-04    Gardner, Josh
           1-03    Eskandarian, Alecko
           5-03    Stokes, David
          20-03    Lewis, Ricky
          ND-02    Akwari, Nelson
          ND-01    Countess, D.J.
          ND-99    Trembly,  Seth
          ND-99    Beckerman, Kyle
          ND-99    Beasley, Damarcus
    
    81     3-03    Jaqua, Nate
          11-03    Carroll, Brian
          15-03    Thompson, Jason
          24-03    Pause, Logan
          42-03    LeBlanc, Jacob
           3-02    Davis, Brad
           5-02    Gray, Kelly
           8-02    Martino, Kyle
          12-01    Burciaga, Jose
          27-01    Buddle, Edson
          27-01    Salas, Sergio
          60-00    Cooks, Micah
    
    80     1-01    Carrieri, Chris
          21-01    Downing, Nick
           6-00    Califf, Dan
    
    79    11-01    Bardales, Isaias
           2-00    Garcia, Nick
           4-00    Bocanegra, Carlos
          14-00    Pierce, Rusty
          31-00    Asad, Shaker
    [/b][/size]
     
  4. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    Re: Re: Superdraft Thread

    With some help from ussoccer.com, this should be a full list. Prior to Bradenton, there wasn't much even-year P-40 talent ... this is probably because the U-20 and U-23 youth events both have odd-year cut-off dates.

    Code:
    [size=1]
    Year  Drafted  Name
    89     1-04    Adu, Freddy
    
    87    36-04    Bradley, Michael
    
    86     8-03    Gonzalez, Memo
          12-03    Gaven, Eddie
    
    85     6-04    Nunez, Ramon
          13-03    Alvarez, Arturo
          17-02    Capano, Craig
    
    84     2-04    Marshall, Chad
           4-03    Magee, Mike
           4-02    Mapp, Justin
          15-02    Stone, Jordan
           8-01    Quaranta, Santino
          19-01    Johnson, Eddie
    
    83     5-04    Cochrane, Ryan
           8-04    Dempsey, Clint
          10-04    Cronin, Steve
          14-04    Grabavoy, Ned
           2-03    Clark, Ricardo
          ND-03    Baumstark, Clint?
          14-01    Barclay, Devin
          67-01    Saavedra, Miguel
          12-00    Convey, Bobby
    
    82     7-04    Goodson, Clarence
          13-04    Gardner, Josh
           1-03    Eskandarian, Alecko
           5-03    Stokes, David
          20-03    Lewis, Ricky
          ND-02    Akwari, Nelson
          ND-01    Countess, D.J.
          ND-99    Trembly,  Seth
          ND-99    Beckerman, Kyle
          ND-99    Beasley, Damarcus
    
    81     3-03    Jaqua, Nate
          11-03    Carroll, Brian
          15-03    Thompson, Jason
          24-03    Pause, Logan
          42-03    LeBlanc, Jacob
           3-02    Davis, Brad
           5-02    Gray, Kelly
           8-02    Martino, Kyle
          12-01    Burciaga, Jose
          27-01    Buddle, Edson
          27-01    Salas, Sergio
          60-00    Cooks, Micah
    
    80     1-01    Carrieri, Chris
          21-01    Downing, Nick
           6-00    Califf, Dan
          ND       Klinger, Martin
          ND       Longo, Mario
    
    79    11-01    Bardales, Isaias
           2-00    Garcia, Nick
           4-00    Bocanegra, Carlos
          14-00    Pierce, Rusty
          31-00    Asad, Shaker
          ND       Albright, Chris
          ND       Beasley, Jamar
          ND       Da Silva, Nino
          ND       Gomez, Francisco
          ND       Howard, Tim
          ND       Quijano, Marvin
          ND       Rimando, Nick
    
    78    ND       Bower, Scott
                   Green, Michael
                   Quill, Eric
                   West, Brian
    
    77    ND       Abukusumo, Ubusuku
                   DiGiamarino, Joey
                   Dunseth, Brian
                   Kirk, Andy
                   Kovalenko, Dema
                   McCarty, Chad
                   Napoleon, Matt
                   Olsen, Ben
                   Otero, Antonio
                   Parra, Carlos
                   Rodriguez, Esmundo
                   Sahaydak, Tim
                   Sastoque, Juan
                   Vallow, Scott
                   Wolff, Josh
    
    76    ND       Botello, Jose
          ND       Cooks, Judah
          ND       Kozic, Alen
          ND       Nyman, Matt
          ND       Rocha, Maurizio
          ND       Swift, Barry
          ND       Vermillion, Scott
    
    75    ND       Daniv, Sergi
    [/b][/size]
     
  5. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Great job, beineke, thanks a lot. What would be interesting to look at, I think, would be the players that could potentially have been P-40's but were overlooked because of this odd year bias (if possible).

    On a different note, I'm interested in where and how different positions get drafted in the Superdraft. To begin with, here is how the various positions broke down, by year:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	Total	Average
    F	18	22	15	17	9	81	0.25
    M	24	26	25	22	27	124	0.38
    D	22	16	20	13	19	90	0.28
    GK	6	7	4	6	5	28	0.09
    Total	70	71	64	58	60	323	
    [/b][/size]
    I don't think the various years are particularly important. Most interesting, here, is that forwards seem to be a little bit overrepresented, and defenders a little bit underrepresented (if you assume most teams play a 4-4-2 or a 3-5-2).

    This may, however, simply be a result of the players being listed by their college positions, which would presumably be more offensively-oriented...
     
  6. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Now, positions broken down by round:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    	1	2	3	4	5	6
    F	15	10	18	17	12	9
    M	20	25	19	18	26	16
    D	19	15	13	17	12	14
    GK	2	6	6	4	2	8
    Total	56	56	56	56	52	47
    [/b][/size]
    And broken down proportionally:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    Round	1	2	3	4	5	6
    F	0.27	0.18	0.32	0.30	0.23	0.19
    M	0.36	0.45	0.34	0.32	0.50	0.34
    D	0.34	0.27	0.23	0.30	0.23	0.30
    GK	0.04	0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.17
    
    [/b][/size]
    What I found most surprising here is the fact that there doesn't seem to be much of a bias by position. I would have suspected that the 'glamour' players, forwards and midfielders, would have been picked more often in early rounds, while defenders went heavily in the later rounds. This doesn't seem to be the case, though; forwards are picked slightly more often in later rounds than in earlier, defenders slightly more early than late, and midfielders very much constant. The only hard and fast rule seems to be don't pick goalies in the first round.
     
  7. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Unfortunately, any sort of analysis of the superdraft is seriously hampered by the fact that it's only existed for five years now, and we've only got four years worth of information from it. Nevertheless, I tried to come up with a little bit of an analysis based on what we've seen.

    First, a lit of rookie minutes by position by round, from 2000 to 2003:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    R. Minutes	1	2	3	4	5	6           Total	
    F	13028	5760	2219	1304	2323	0	24634
    M	18245	10156	1711	2368	513	1719	34712
    D	17540	8742	5921	4207	149	0	36559
    GK	1146	1640	2561	90	0	0	5437
    [/b][/size]
    And Sophomore minutes, 2000-2002:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    S minutes	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
    F	7458	2932	3258	422	3034	0	17104
    M	15391	10818	2917	1948	28	0	31102
    D	12787	6832	7090	2902	0	729	30340
    GK	2018	2194	2480	938	0	0	7630
    [/b][/size]
    More useful are the minutes per draftee numbers, so first, rookie minutes/draftee, through 2003:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    R m/ind.  1	2	3	4	5	6	Average
    F	1086	576	139	82	211	0	342
    M	1073	484	132	182	26	132	358
    D	1096	795	493	324	17	0	515
    GK	1146	410	512	23	0	0	236
    [/b][/size]
    And sophomore minutes per draftee:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    S m/ind.  1	2	3	4	5	6	Average
    F	932	367	272	35	303	0	311
    M	1099	636	265	195	2	0	415
    D	984	854	709	264	0	81	523
    GK	2018	731	827	313	0	0	449
    [/b][/size]
    Not much to say here, really. Regardless of what position you play, you seem to get about the same amount of minutes if you're drafted in the first round. However, as you get further into the draft, especially into the 3rd and 4th rounds, defenders (and, to a lesser extent, goalkeepers) are getting a much larger proportion of minutes than are forwards and midfielders. So it seems, although my feelings about where players are getting drafted may have been wrong, they may have been informed by the fact that late-round defenders tend to do a good deal better than late-round attacking players.
     
  8. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Beineke brought up the fact that not a lot of P-40's in the early years were from even year numbers; the other side of this argument is that players born early in the year, particularly January and February, are advantaged in the P-40 setup and talent identification, etc. I thought I'd take a look to see how this bled over into college; I broke things down by month, but since those are extremely small samples, I'm just going to present this in quarters, by year:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	Total
    1Q	0.333	0.279	0.381	0.224	0.183	0.282
    2Q	0.242	0.230	0.190	0.276	0.300	0.247
    3Q	0.227	0.246	0.222	0.276	0.250	0.244
    4Q	0.197	0.246	0.206	0.224	0.267	0.227
    [/b][/size]
    And the totals, by month are:
    Code:
    [size=1]
    1	0.107
    2	0.084
    3	0.091
    4	0.078
    5	0.075
    6	0.094
    7	0.094
    8	0.084
    9	0.065
    10	0.104
    11	0.062
    12	0.062
    [/b][/size]
    Where expected would have been .0825. So, clearly, we're seeing a little bit of a bias here towards the first quarter, and a little bit of a disadvantage toward the last; I was a little bit surprised, because I thought that the fact that college runs on a fall to spring schedule would (thus breaking up previous age groups, e.g. 82's) get rid of the advantage. Nevertheless, this doesn't seem to be a serious problem when it comes to college age players.

    Equally surprisingly, the P-40's drafted didn't exhibit any kind of earlier-birthdate trend. Dividided into quarters, they were:

    Code:
    Q	#	%
    1	10	0.217
    2	13	0.283
    3	15	0.326
    4	8	0.174
    [/b][/size]
     
  9. beineke

    beineke New Member

    Sep 13, 2000
    If we break the P-40's down by Bradenton alumni and others, we get:

    Bradenton
    Q1-6
    Q2-5
    Q3-5
    Q4-2

    Other
    Q1-4
    Q2-8
    Q3-10
    Q4-6

    The Bradenton kids do seem to exhibit a bit of a trend. BTW, at least in some regions, club soccer uses an August 1 cutoff date. That may help to favor Q3 players. (I'd also be interested in seeing data split out for the players who join P-40 after their junior year in college.)
     
  10. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Dredging up another old thread, I thought, with the season approaching, it was time for some predictions. I don't purport to know how well any individual rookie is going to do, but I think it should be possible to discern some trends. There are some pretty clear trends that arise from the first four years of the superdraft. Among the simplest, first round picks play about twice as many minutes as second round picks, who play about twice as much as third round picks, down on the line.

    In the four years of the draft, rookies have always accounted for under 10% of available league minutes, but above 5%. By year:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    Year	Av. Min	Min.	Proportion
    2000	387215	36483	9.4
    2001	318993	26098	8.2
    2002	282540	17089	6.0
    2003	306758	21672	7.1
    
    [/size]

    The drop between 2001 and 2002 was almost certainly caused by contraction, but several sophomores got their first meaningful minutes in 2003, so I think we can expect a bit more recovery and rookies to play somewhere between 7 and 8% of available minutes this year. Since MLS has eliminated overtime, we can say that they'll play 7-8% of 30*90*10*11, or somewhere between 20790 and 23760 minutes.

    Here's how minutes have been distributed by round (I readjusted 2002's rounds into groups of 10):

    Code:
    [size=1]
    Round	2000	2001	2002	2003	Total
    1	3.92	4.34	2.82	3.96	3.76
    2	2.45	2.32	1.05	1.83	1.91
    3	1.51	1.07	1.20	0.47	1.06
    4	0.97	0.44	0.08	0.52	0.50
    5	0.53	0.02	0.38	0.21	0.29
    6	0.05	0.00	0.52	0.07	0.16
    Total	9.42	8.18	6.05	7.06	7.68
    
    [/size]

    If we take expect them to play 7.5% of minutes, using those distributions, that means we're looking at about 10903 minutes for 1st rounders, 5542 for 2nds, 3075 for 3rds, 1452 for 4ths, 834 for 5ths, and 466 for 6ths.

    You obviously can't just average out those numbers to get individual expectations, but I'm going to do that anyway. In reverse order:

    2 6th rounders, Jeff Parke and Chris Aloisi, made the opening day rosters.
    4 5th rounders (Dombrowski, Pilarski, Detter, Sullivan) made it.
    5 4th rounders (Clanton, Bradley, Gros, Sutton, Wagenfuhr)
    3 3rd rounders (Maurin, Ara, Wells; White and Occean poached)
    9 2nd rounders (Gregorio to Wigan)
    10 1st rounders

    I guess that's about it. I'd expect the high expectations for Wagenfuhr, Gros, Sutton, Dombrowski, Detter, and Parke are going to be at least largely unsatisfied, as in the last three years, all players from the 4th round onwards have totalled 6724 minutes, 2241 per season, although there should be more room than usual since the third round crop was terrible. If any of the late round picks are to succeed, I'd bet on Parke and Wagenfuhr continuing the tradition of late-round defenders doing disproportionately well.
     
  11. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    I think that both the drop in 2002 and the recovery in 2003 were caused by the large disparity in talent between the two classes. Both groups of players were entering a ten-team league, and IMO, the quality of established talent rose from 2002 to 2003, so it was even harder for a rookie to get minutes.

    As for this season's draftees, I'm betting that they'll be well under 7% again. The number of openings in this league continues to get smaller.

    Last season's draftees who debuted on opening day:
    Starters (7): Clark, Magee, LeBlanc, Dunivant, Crawford, Schmidt, Pause
    Sub appearances (3): Noonan, Ralph, Jaqua

    Will any 2004 draftees start tomorrow? (Marshall would, but I think he's hurt.)
     
  12. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    You make good points, beineke, you can't ignore the difference in talent between years (like I did), and looking at opening-day players is about the best way to do it we have. 8% is probably too ambitious, I admit (even when trying to be smart and statistical, I can't resist being overly optimistic about all the new talent). However, I think your point, that (possibly) no rookies will start doesn't really hold up. Last year's first and second best rookies didn't start. The starters you listed ended up ranked 2nd, 4th, 1st, 9th, 19th, and 6th in minutes; the subs were 5th, 3rd, and 12th (averages of 6.8 and 6.7, respectively). I'd say what's more important than playing on opening day is having the opportunity to get on the field at all.


    I don't know who's starting Saturday, but I think you're a little pessimistic. Marshall will be starting when he gets back (which is really the point), Jeff Parke looks like a possibility for the Metrostars, some guy on the Metrostars board says Gary Sullivan (I believe) will be starting for Colorado, and a lot of D.C. fans think Josh Gros will be starting.

    Likely subs include: Adu, Ngwenya, Taylor, and Dempsey, with others certainly as possibilities.

    It's clearly not as good as last year (none of the starters are as promising as Clark was), but it's not a whole lot worse either.
     
  13. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Thx for all the info ... something tells me you're going to have some powerhouse fantasy teams this year.

    Anyway, I agree with the point above, though I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if close to 10 rookies do get onto the field tomorrow.
     
  14. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    If Denny Clanton, Jamal Sutton, and Ty Maurin pull through for me, absolutely.
     
  15. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Just for reference, numerista, I looked up who played on opening day in 2002; just six guys.

    Code:
    Gray, Kelly	sub	15
    Martino, Kyle	sub	3
    Twellman, T.	sub	33
    Forko, Sam	start	90
    Glinton, Gavin	sub	2
    Stewart, Jeff	start	100
    
    Using rookie minutes played for 2003 and 2002, there was a .46 correlation between minutes played total and minutes played opening day. I also tried a different tack: guys got a 1 if they played, a 0 if they didn't, and got a correlation of .62. I also tried giving players a 2 for starting, a 1 for coming on as a sub, and a 0 for not playing; correlation .55. You'll have to tell me if that means anything or not.
     
  16. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    The 2004 draft doesn't look as thin on talent as the lacklustre 2002 crop, but the opening day presence was very similar...
    Starters: Parke, Sullivan (both due to injury)
    Subs: Dempsey, Gros, Sutton, and Adu

    On the positive side, the class of 2003 continues to impress ...

    -- High-quality goals from Noonan, Magee, and Eskandarian
    -- Assists from Arturo Torres and Eddie Gaven (who looks ready for the national team)
    -- MLS debuts for Carroll (started to good reviews), Stokes, and Ritch

    In addition, David Testo started for Columbus, and his shot created Hejduk's rebound goal. Like Colorado starter Nat Borchers, he was undrafted last season.

    There's a cliche that the new players get better every year, but in practice, it's very sporadic. (This holds true with NBA drafts, as well.)
     
  17. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Yeah, last year's draft looked particularly good. Of the top 20 players selected, 10 started, and 4 others came on as subs.

    As for this year's class, I don't think you can make that 'due to injury' caveat unless you want to count Chad Marshall (and possibly Ryan Cochrane or others). A little bit disappointing, but certainly not terrible (although I'll harbor a grudge against Bob Gansler for a while for not substituting a forward in a 0-0 tie). I think what's encouraging for this class is that of the six guys who played, only two were from the first two rounds. That at least implies to me that the problem may be guys not being able to break into the lineup, not a simple lack of talent.

    (I think a significant factor in the difference in talent between last year and this might be the fact that MLS signed 13 P-40's last year, vs. 9 this year; specifically, in 2003 there were 8 juniors in the draft [in 2002 there was 1 sophomore], who would have been in 2004's draft otherwise.)
     
  18. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Agreed. In addition, there were only 6 P-40's in 2002, because players like Dunivant, Noonan, and Walsh all turned MLS down. That trio added to the 2003 group. (Also turning down MLS in 2002 were Akwari, Countess, Yi, and Onyewu; although the first two joined the league later that season.)

    Incidentally, I was surprised to count that the 2002 draft actually had 12 starters on Saturday, more than the 2003 crop. That list includes...
    4 P-40's (Gray, Martino, Davis, and Mapp)
    3 Players who went to Germany prior to MLS (Twellman, Gibbs, Joseph)
    1 A-Leaguer (Jon Busch)
    1 Player who had gone back to college for a year (Kante)
    3 Development Players (Leitch, Arnaud, and Behncke)

    That's a complete starting line-up of 2002 draftees, plus a sub, and none of them went through four years of college, then straight into an MLS playing rotation.
     
  19. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
     
  20. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Update:

    Code:
    2002	
    Gray, Kelly	sta
    Mapp, Justin	sub
    Selolwane, Dipsy	sub
    
    2003	
    Jaqua, Nate	sta
    Ralph, Damani	sta
    Carroll, Brian	sta
    Eskandarian, Alecko	sta
    Torres, Arturo	sta
    
    2004	
    Griffin, Leonard	sta
    Gros, Josh	sta
    Adu, Freddy	sub
    Ngwenya, Joseph	sub
    
    Quite good for 2004.
     
  21. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Another; players in parentheses were subs:

    Code:
    2002
    Gray
    Mapp
    Behncke
    Davis
    Martino
    Leonard
    Joseph
    Twellman
    Leitch
    (Selolwane)
    (Moreno)
    (Gbandi)
    (Capano)
    (Arnaud)
    
    2003
    Ralph
    Jaqua
    Pause
    Alecko
    Carroll
    Thomas
    Walsh
    Borchers
    Noonan
    Clark
    Gaven
    (Testo)
    (Torres)
    (Walker)
    
    2004
    Marshall
    Grabavoy
    Ngwenya
    Dempsey
    Parke
    (Gros)
    (Adu)
    (Taylor)
    (Sullivan)
    
     
  22. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Last season, my opinion was that Nat Borchers was an exception, a strong player with an excellent track record who had simply been overlooked. This year, it's getting harder to deny that draft depth has improved. It's remarkable how many late-round picks have earned appearances, and with more qualifiers up ahead, their minutes may increase further.

    The flipside is that minutes are way down for players picked in rounds 2 and 3.

    2004 Minutes by round (so far)
    1 -- 3325 Adu 541, Marshall 810, Ngwenya 536, Taylor 148, Cochrane 360, Nunez 5, Dempsey 907, Buete 18
    2 -- 500 Griffin 155, Wingert 43, Grabavoy 302
    3 -- 105 Wells 90, Ara 15
    4 -- 706 Sutton 5, Gros 699, Clanton 2
    5 -- 222 Vercollone 1, Sullivan 212, Dombrowski 9
    6 -- 1130 Brilliant 308, Aloisi 90, Dorman 123, Parke 609
    Und - Cila 13, Perkins 360
     
  23. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I did a thing for the Emerald City Gazette before the 2003 draft grading each team on their drafting over time, and picking the steals and busts from each year, but I only based it on games, not minutes (general audience - didn't want to get too technical). I have it somewhere, if anyone thinks it might add to the discussion in any way.
     
  24. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    I'm tempted to make the argument that this is a product of developmental rosters, but I think it's impossible to deny the fact that the draft's depth is significantly improved.


    I'm not sure there's a whole lot to be said about this - the second and third rounds are obviously down, but I think this is just a little bad luck combined with the fact that some guys haven't managed to break into their lineups yet - at the midpoint last year, Damani Ralph was the only 2nd rounder who was a consistent starter. These mid-round picks may be being drafted more for potential than for immediate ability to produce, while the more mature guys may be sliding. I don't think we've seen enough to make conclusions about these classes.
     
  25. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    I would definitely like to see that, Kenn - what I think would be a good companion to that, though, would be if we did a regression so that we could estimate the 'expected minutes' that a team should have gotten from draft picks x, y, and z.

    I'm not exactly sure what to include, though - draft position and year, presumably, but what about position, or age-when-drafted, etc. And what numbers to look at? Rookie minutes, career minutes, goals, etc.? So if you or anyone else has ideas...

    (sorry to hijack your suggestion)
     

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