I thought this was a very good interview dealing with trading psychology and getting over emotional pitfalls that exist with many traders... http://www.4shared.com/dir/6465636/9a01d279/sharing.html]MARK DOUGLAS AUDIO
If anyone is interested in a short term trade, statistics show that CEPH (when it gaps) fills the gap 88% of the time on an intraday basis.. Of course you still have to time it and trade it, but if you see it gap, and begin to fall off, odds are strong you can make money on that move.
I think we've all made a nice chunk of change the past 4 weeks. I took some profits on Friday. The bad news is that it's tougher to find bargains out there. Anybody have a good buy?
So who's still making money? I'm up about 15% on the year, despite jumping out of a couple of things too early.
I've done very well with Apple calls-currently holding one that is up 185%- and I just sold out of a BIDU call today that I made over 200% on. I do mostly options, so I have a lot of volatility. I have had a great run the last couple of months though and I am up close to 60% over that time. I've almost made up for last year!
I'm confused. How can you be up 185% on Apple when the stock is "only" up 65 points (or about 80%) from its 52-week low. But yeah, I'm doing well this year (hard not to) despite some selling off in early April. But I held on to my full position with YGE solar (share price has tripled in 2009) and SQM (up 50%) as well as emerging-country ETFs (FXI China, ILF Latin America and EZA South Africa). Only Verizon has gone down, but maybe that makes it a good buy now(?). Learnt my lesson though. Not doing any more selling regardless what happens. If its a "W-shaped" recovery I'll just buy more when the market drops.
These (along with M tops) are powerful points in the market, and are good to notice. However how it behaves along the "neckline" (holds or fails) usually has a nice move that follows.. Whats important is realizing that these are often precursors to a short term volatile move.. My point is dont predict "oh its a W bottom, therefore its GOING to go up (they often fail) use the bounce or failure along that point, and play off the support or resistance of it..
Exactly. They are not for the faint of heart, but I have a pretty good run going for the past couple of months.
I agree it's cheap. I have no idea how it is possible to be so cheap. What do you think is the reason?
Thanks for the tip. Been researching ZSTN since I read your post and I also have no clue why its so cheap. I know China is a bit iffy right now, but that's the only worry I have. Of course I was glad to see that it went even cheaper while doing this research so I bought some at $6.41 just now.
Now I feel responsible. Don't thank me please because it was not meant to be a tip. And I hope you make money on your trade. I probably shouldn't have posted the trade. But this thread is just too tempting. As cheap as it seems, probably not going to be a home run trade. As cheap as FUQI at one point which was a home run, the climate for "undervalued" Chinese stocks is much different now. Sometimes it's not a good thing to have such a low PE. The market may be telling you something is terribly wrong. China is a bit iffy right now, as you said. The reported numbers may not be straight. A huge revenues or earnings downside surprise may be pending. A surprise bankruptcy may be imminent. Or sometimes the lack of sponsorship alone can keep a stock down for an extensive period of time. I can go on. That said, I'm buying more here.
Well, yeah they did make an accounting error in their first filing with the SEC back in March 31st I believe. They understated their common stock which I guess would overstate their EPS. So that was a bit dodgy and might be why people are hesitant to buy. Things like that don't inspire confidence in the market but the latest earnings report was too good to ignore.
I should also add, the chart looks a bit heavy here. Probably it's going to get even cheaper. Net net people have been buying though. http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings....bol=BRLC&selected=ZSTN&FormType=Institutional If the GPS story plays out according to plan, given how much cash the company has, I think upside far out-weights downside, so it's probably not a terrible bet right here, even though it's more of a bet than anything else.
I want to say something but whatever I say will inevitably have some influence on your decision so I don't think I should say anything more than "blame the thread starter". Trust me, I'm enjoying the view of the fall as much as you are.
Well usually a good sign when a company re-purchases its own shares so honestly I'm not that worried.
When I look at a chart like this, I notice it has been gradually filling its gap from 8/11. what you want to eventually see is some "enthusiasm" for the stock (increased trading volume) around the original gap point. if there isnt a nice bounce there, you might be stuck holding for a longer period than you anticipated.