Stock-picker Thread (2006!)

IN the right direction? It looks like it's creeping back down to where it had gapped up to a couple months ago.

You mean that stock that is trading around $80 right now, hit $85+ recently, and that doubled in value in the last 6 months may now be overvalued? Impossible.

Ya, I hope some folks around here have enjoyed the apple ride but I'd be setting those stops to get out at a good price. Apple was trading around $10 a share back in 04. This one isn't going to last much longer.

 

They're up 75% in the last year, they're P/E is over 70, and the mainstream grocery stores are stepping up their "organic" offerings. How much more growth is possible for the company? I don't see how the ride will last much longer when this one.

 

Ill take this chance to see what everyone thinks of Ameritrade. The purchase of TD Waterhouse along with a so called cash dividend that is due this week?
Its part of Cramer's portfolio too so it has some fan base, along with great numbers to back it up.
I bought in at 24 and am looking forward to the 30s.

 

On the other hand, communities are lining up to beg Whole Foods to open stores in their area, unlike, say, most other food-tailers.

Sachin

 

I thought that this was a stock discussion? What I read was a pretty brief, though fundamental point-of-view on a stock. I realize that most of the discussion so far has focused on technical indicators, but rapidly expanding PE's and increased competition are relevant to many.

I appreciate hearing a stock's "story." If I can't find something bad about an investment it usually means that I don't know the risks associated that opportunity.

If a pick is necessary, mine would be WMT. From a historical perspective its a good value. I like its competitive position as being the undisputed leader at distribution. Also, I like their market position in a "soft" economy. Right now, they have labor issues, but I think that ultimately, WMT's willingness to close stores instead of allowing organized labor wins out.

 

Yes, but that P/E is completely insane. I'm not sure what company out there other than goolge has that kind of P/E. That's 5 times what others in it's industry feetch. And I'm not sure how much opportunity for growth they have. This is for a company that is looking to add a dozen stores this year. That's not even a 10% increase in size. Which is probably good cuz they're going after the high end of the market. But in the short run, for the stock, I don't see how they're going to grow fast enough to justify their current stock price.

Oh, sorry. I'm just poo-pooing things, aren't I? I do that a lot by nature. I don't mean to do it in a way that comes across as putt people thoughts down so much as simply disagreeing. The way I see it, time is money. We know that when we alk about opportunity costs. Find something that's going up, set your stops, and ride it until it loses it's momentum. LIke Whole Foods. I'm not sure I'd buy into it now. I think to get where it is now, it's had some great momentum. But it's time for thiings to sort themselves out. There are tools and logic you can use in figuring these things out so you're not eyeballing a stock. But even looking at a stock like Whole Foods, ideally you would've sold in August and when the idicators made it look likely it was ready to climng again, buy back in.

As for a stock I would recomend right now, Burlington Northern Santa Fe.

 

Railroads have traditionally been heavily regulated and probably didn't start to grow out of that until the the 90s even though the laws were loosened up earlier. They're obviously not a growth stock but they've been putting up nice growth for their size. More importantly, their stock is going up. Afterall, a stock is only worth as much as someone will pay for it.

 

http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/26/lifecell-celgene-winnerslosers-cz_pm_0127sf.html?partner=yahootix

my wife works for LIFC and bought the stock at $7...

 

Another good pick. They're in an old school indstry that's seeing good growth and they're going to cotinue to benefit a lot as railrodas sink even more money back into their operations.

 

made out pretty good if he sold at the open today.

 

In case you're keeping score at home, this closed at 3.26 on the 30th. It's at 3.68 now. Not too shabby for a couple of weeks. Looking for more gains to come.

 

apparently according to cnn's front page univision is going to profit from this years world cup

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/01/commentary/mediabiz/index.htm?cnn=yes

 

Not such if I should start another thread but: I am considering a Bear fund for diversity, anybody know a good one?

 

My version of a 'Bear fund' and Im assuming one that shorts a lot? or is betting on the economy to weaken, is Gold.

 

After doing the research, no Bear fund for me.

 

Invested in four Mutual Funds today. The first three got 5 stars by Morning Star TREMX an International Equity Em. Markets fund, VWINX, Income fund,"not sexy but a stable diversifying fund" and MPGFX, Growth. The next fund got four stars, USAGX, Precious Metal Fund. I also a few weeks back up my holdings in HRSVX, a Growth Income fund that has treated me very well over the last four years. It's managed by Heartland Fund, a small company but I have gotten good returns.