Another "tournament", another round of simulations. I did the last round here: http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/simulating-the-next-round-of-qualifying.2026029/ if you want some of the details on the process. Current Elo Ratings: Mexico - 1884 Costa Rica - 1800 United States - 1757 Panama - 1643 Honduras - 1543 Trinidad & Tobago - 1514 The results of one 10,000 simulation run - Team, Place: MEX - 1st (6,345), 2nd (2,412), 3rd (990), 4th (223), 5th (23), 6th (7) CR - 1st (2,263), 2nd (3,903), 3rd (2,742), 4th (879), 5th (184), 6th (29) USA - 1st (1,196), 2nd (2,849), 3rd (3,779), 4th (1,618), 5th (457), 6th (101) PAN - 1st (170), 2nd (695), 3rd (1,722), 4th (4,272), 5th (2,209), 6th (932) HON - 1st (18), 2nd (98), 3rd (493), 4th (1,748), 5th (3,910), 6th (3,733) T&T - 1st (8), 2nd (43), 3rd (274), 4th (1,260), 5th (3,217), 6th (5,198) The USA qualifies direct 78.24% of the time. Plays in the playoff, 16.18%. Eliminated, 5.58%. Something about that is not that reassuring. Here is the USA point scenarios for this run - Points, # of Occurrences, Top3%, 4th% 0-3 - Never 4 - 5, 0%, 0% 5 - 10, 0%, 0% 6 - 21, 0%, 0% 7 - 51, 0%, 2% 8 - 83, 0%, 4% 9 - 151, 1%, 25% 10 - 258, 4%, 51% 11 - 375, 15%, 64% 12 - 507, 31%, 58% 13 - 689, 50%, 46% 14 - 880, 66%, 33% 15 - 945, 82%, 18% (actually 1 out of 945 we were eliminated in 5th place) 16 - 1049, 91%, 9% 17 - 1032, 97%, 3% 18 - 916, 99.56%, 0.44% 19 - 886, 99.89%, 0.11% 20 - 750, 100% 21 - 443 22 - 417 23 - 236 24 - 134 25 - 100 26 - 28 27 - 25 28 - 8 29 - NA 30 - 1
You have the USA with a mean (when rounded to the nearest whole number), median, and mode of 16 points. The third place team in the five Hexagonals has had 14, 15, 16, or 17 points.
Thanks for starting the thread - I always enjoy this analysis. It seems crazy writing this, but the one I'm worried about this cycle is Panama. Yes, they are a level below us, Mexico, and Costa Rica...but that gap isn't as wide as it once was. My view is that they are a clear #4 team in the region. They've been on the rise since the 2014 qualifying cycle started: Gold Cup finalists in 2013; nearly made the 2014 World Cup; won the 3rd place game in Gold Cup 2015. They are good enough that I don't think us AND Mexico AND Costa Rica will take 6 points off of them.
Is Panama as good as they were though? I know Blas Perez is on his last legs and wonder if they have younger players ready to step up. The US does but they mat be just a tad young at the moment.
Fudging Blas Perez is like the El Pescadito of Panama. He always shows up against us. He'll pip a goal after coming on in the 75th minute and torment someone like Cameron into a silly red card in the 82nd when we are trying to equalize. Just wait. I do like the analysis, but I don't think we'll end up below CR in this hex. I think we may find ourselves with 2 points after 2 games, but will pick up ground steadily after that and end up in 2nd to Mexico, ahead of Honduras, CR, Panama and TandT in that order.
If he used the FIFA rank would it be much different? 15 Mexico (ELO 1884) 18 Costa Rica (ELO 1800) 22 USA (ELO 1757) 62 Panama (ELO 1643) 69 T & T (ELO 1514) 82 Honduras (ELO 1543) Honduras and T&T swap spots other then that the simulation would be very similar. Is there another ranking system besides these 2?
Panama is a hard team to figure. In 2016 they won only 6 games. Every single one of them against a CONCACAF opponent or the lowest ranked CONMEBOL team (El Salvador, Cuba, Haiti, Martinique, Bolivia, and Jamaica). Jamaica is basically the only good win there. Panama will be Panama. A tough team, but one that we should beat at home. They just lost to Mexico, but it was a pretty close game. Honduras and T&T aren't exactly lighting the world on fire either. In order to advance we just need to do what we always do in CONCACAF WCQers. Win the home games. Pick up a point here or there on the road..............................and we're thru. This simulation says we have about an 80% chance of going thru, and I think that actually underestimates our chances. I imagine that if we win that first game against Mexico at home, then our chances skyrocket to almost certainty.
I see my "convo" with the one guy got deleted (probably rightly). Did find his one word response pretty funny though. The current Elo distribution suggests this is the 2nd toughest Hex for us to qualify from. According to Elo... The easiest was '06. We came in with our best Elo rating of the 5, 1808, trailing Mexico by 54 points. What made it easy was those two were far above the 3rd place team, Costa Rica. CR Elo was 1664. Guatemala, Panama, and T&T followed. Sim says USA top 3 was 96% going in. 4th place, 3% of the time with a matchup against AFC. Easy run. It turned out to be just the case. The US and Mex finished tied atop on 22 points, 9 points clear of 4th place T&T. Second easiest was probably 2002. We actually started with the #1 Elo ranking of the 6, but we weren't particularly impressive at 1776. Mexico trailed next at 1770. Honduras lurked at 1688, with T&T, CR, and Jamaica rounding it out. No 1/2 point, but we wouldn't need it. Sim said 88% in. In the end, Costa Rica surprised everyone with a great run, and we just squeaked in. A close 3rd was 2010. We were in good form at 1792, trailing Mexico by just 10 points. But Costa Rica (1712) and Honduras (1700) were dangerous. The other two teams were weak though. T&T at 1549 and El Salvador with an all time HEX low of 1451. Sim said Top 4 was 98%, but having to face CONMEBOL you really needed to be Top 3, and that was at 87%. It played out just as such, with T&T and ES doormats far off the pace. We ended up topping the group in a tight race, with Bornstein sending Honduras through at the final moment. 2nd toughest as I said is this one. It's actually the 1st time we come in as 3rd choice. Mexico is strong at 1884, and CR at 1800. We are middling at 1757, but over 100 clear of 4th place Panama. Honduras and T&T are pretty weak, so finishing Top 4 shouldn't be a problem (94%). Top 3 is tougher at 78%. According to Elo our toughest challenge was 2014. Mexico were far and away favorites at 1894. We came in struggling, our lowest entry point at 1741, 2nd choice. The other teams weren't particularly strong but it was balanced, Panama at 1682, CR at 1663, Hon at 1643. Jamaica wasn't great at 1543, but still the 2nd best 6th choice of the 5 Hexes. Sim has the USA top 3 only 75% of the time. 4th place 15%, with a 10% chance of being eliminated directly. Of course it didn't turn out that way. After the Honduras disaster which caused serious sphincteritis, we righted the ship in the Denver snow. Aided by the Mexican meltdown, we cruised in from there.
Also have another 16% chance of making the playoff, which if you consider that a coin flip brings our overall chances to around 85-90%. In reality, if the playoff opponent is anyone other than Japan (who is struggling at the moment), South Korea, or Australia then we (or Mexico or Costa Rica) would be very heavy favorites. If it is any of the top 3 from CONCACAF vs. any of the top 3 from Asia then a coin flip sounds about right.
Getting results across 10 games is a far more assured path than just the 2 games of a playoff and the pitfalls that could entail. Finishing Top3 should really be the target, and it really shouldn't be that difficult. Challenging at times, but not difficult across the 11 months of the Hex.
Depends on who the opponent is. If it's one of Japan/SK/Australia I'd say a coin flip is about right (probably dead even odds vs. Japan, very slight favorites vs. SK or Australia). Iran or Saudi Arabia we'd be favored, anyone other than those 5 we'd be very heavily favored. The most likely scenario is Panama or Honduras vs. one of Iran/Saudi Arabia/Uzbekistan...Syria is also doing pretty well right now and would probably be the most attractive opponent to face, they're the weakest of the Asian teams that's been doing well so far in this round plus you wouldn't have to play a true road leg (they've played their home games in the previous round in various Central Asian countries, and Malaysia so far in this round).
17 points essentially assures top 3. 4-0-1 at home and 1-2-2 on the road is 18. Really shouldn't be hard.
Expected wins: (4) Home Honduras Panama Trinidad and Tobago Away Trinidad and Tobago Expected draw (3) Home Costa Rica (although we always, did I say always, beat these guys at home, but times they are a changin) Away Panama Honduras Losses (3) Home Mexico (assuredly, let's hope this is not the case) Away Mexico Costa Rica This totals out to be 15 points. Would that be enough? Potential points gain would be most likely from beating Costa Rica at home or Panama/Honduras on the road. Should any of these three happen (or defeating Mexico in Columbus) the chances of qualifying with 17 points would be substantially increased.
You think the Top 3 in AFC are Japan, South Korea, and Australia, but Iran is the best AFC team in the FIFA Rankings and ELO Ratings.
PhillyandBCEagles probably hasn't watched a single AFC match, if he puts Iran in the same tier as Saudi Arabia and actually thinks South Korea who have lost to Iran 4 times in a row , and were totally dominated by Iran last week, are currently a better team than Iran who haven't officially lost a match in AFC in 4 years and have yet to concede a single goal this WCQ cycle. Watch the highlights of Iran-Korea match, South Korea did not even have a single shot on Iran's goal: Also, Iran will most likely qualify for the World Cup with 2 matches to spare. Your playoff opponent will either be Saudi Arabia/Japan or South Korea/Uzbekistan. And Panama will not favorites against any of those teams. Honduras will be favourites against KSA and Uzbekistan.
Yeah, I've been watching quite a few of the AFC qualifiers and Iran strikes me as a team who will have no problem qualifying. If we did end up playing Iran in a home/away I think we'd be very slight favorites, but it'd effectively be a coin flip. They're a legit team with real talent. Remind me a little of Algeria from the last couple cycles..maybe slightly better.
Here are the USMNT's Hexagonal record for home and away by opponent. Jamaica Away - D, D, W Jamaica at Home - D, W, W Canada Away - W Canada at Home - W Costa Rica Away - L, L, L, L, L Costa Rica at Home - W,W,W, D, W Mexico Away - D, L, L, L, D Mexico at Home - D, W, W, W, W El Salvador Away D, D El Salvador at Home - W, W Honduras Away - W, W, L Honduras at Home - L, W, W Panama Away - W, W Panama at Home - W, W T&T Away - D, W, W T&T at Home - W, W, W Guatemala Away - D Guetemala at Home - W
Taking the past average points from this (rounded to nearest tenth), per game of this edition of the Hex: 2.6 vs Mexico 0.0 @ Costa Rica 2.0 vs Honduras 3.0 @ Panama 3.0 vs T&T 0.4 @ Mexico 2.6 vs Costa Rica 2.0 @ Honduras 3.0 vs Panama 2.3 @ T&T --- 20.9 points
Panama is much better than Honduras right now. By the end of the Hex we'll see. According to Elo, Panama would be favored against KSA, but slight underdogs v. Uzbekistan. @Mani , what is your opinion of Uzbekistan? I've never seen them play, but they seem to be on the rise a bit (kinda similar to Panama actually). However, they almost never play out of AFC, so hard to make much of it. They lost to Canada recently, so that doesn't bode well for them around here.
Uzbekistan is a very good team with technical players, but they're notorious chokers and mentally weak, similar to how Iran was before Carlos Quiroz took over. Saudis are the exact opposite, they're not nearly as good as Uzbeks, but mentally strong. So I think Asia's fifth team will be Saudi Arabia or Japan both of whom should be able to take care of Uzbekistan, unless Uzbekistan manages to qualify over Korea which is very possible. In which case, Korea will have the upper hand against Saudis in the Asian play-off. By the way, it wasn't Uzbekistan's main squad that played Canada.