We're officially in the last stretch of the playoff race. What are your picks for the top 6? Who's going to be the one that barely loses out to the top 6 and who do you think will win the shield this year? Plus discussion of the many matches we'll be seeing in the next couple of weeks. Enjoy!
Angel City have been consitently 7th-placed for weeks, now. What do they need, in your opinion, to make that last step leading them into top 6? Also: North Carolina Courage's transformation in the last month has been impressive! They went from 12th place to 8th: one would say that, with more time and matches available, who knows? They could even make it! But I am not sure they will manage to keep this impressive pace. Chicago Red Stars dropped to 6th place. They were in the top positions, but they look in crisis right now: I wonder if they can comeback to their previous self or if they're going to crash out of top 6...
Angel City FC has been inching closer and closer but the teams above them have also been winning so it's been a bit of a long distance chase for them this last part of the season. We used to be around 4-6 points away from the top 6, but now these next couple of weeks get interesting. We are now 1-3 points away from our next competitors. We win or tie our next games and we FINALLY start breaking into the top 6. That's just it though, we have to get hopefully 2-4 points out of our two next away games and then totally get 3 points with Washington Spirit and Louisville during our final home games and then it comes down to the very last away match with Chicago on October 2. I think that's the match that will determine whether we go into the playoffs or not. I have to accept Gilles and Leroux are not playing for the rest of this season. I don't know exactly what they are dealing with but apparently Leroux was injured at the beginning of the season with Orlando and re aggravated the injury when she played for us 2-3 times in July. Gilles has been out since the CONCACAF World Cup/Olympics qualifiers and never came back for us this season. I think we have to work with who we have right now which is Charley, Emslie, Endo at the top and McCaskill and Roccaro making something happen in the midfield. We seem to have a solid defense despite not having Sarah Gorden or Julie Ertz and substituting Lussi and Jazmyne Spencer in outside back roles. North Carolina Courage kinda came out of nowhere going from dead last to now a playoff contender so that's definitely the amazing story of the season. Washington Spirit never caught up and they risk getting eliminated from playoff contention this week if Angel City or Chicago wins their match. I think it's between Portland and Kansas City Current on who takes the shield this season, they are just too good and next level compared to the other teams beneath them. San Diego maybe if they stayed more consistent. I'm still waiting for Jun Endo to score a banger on our team, I think she's not selfish enough to take the shot herself but I think she can put it in the back of the net if she just said ******** it, I'm taking the shot once in a while. Can't wait to go to Snapdragon stadium on Saturday to see Angel City take on San Diego to a sold out crowd of 32,000.
Here's my prediction of the top six in the final standings: 1. Portland 2. Kansas City 3. OL Reign 4. San Diego 5. Houston 6. North Carolina NC is a bit of a stretch. They have to win all 5 of their upcoming matches to ensure they are in the top 6, although 4 out of 5 wins might get them into 6th place. But, they're played very well recently and have a lot of talent. If NC doesn't make it, Chicago is my choice for 6th. OL Reign have underperformed on offense all season -- but they seem to be coming together now and I expect them to move up a position or two. Rookie of the year: Diana Ordonez, NC, (narrowly beating out Savannah DeMelo) Golden Boot: Alex Morgan, SD, (a no brainer) MVP: Here's a speculative pick. Lo'eau Labonta, KC. A Fishlock type player with 6 goals and 4 assists. Add another couple of goals or assists during wins in the final stretch and she's my MVP, although realistically she probably doesn't have the name recognition to win. If Chicago makes the playoffs, maybe Pugh is MVP. Or S. Smith of Portland. Or, or course, Morgan.
"knock on wood" - I think CRS has winnable games at home tonight vs. KC and Saturday vs. Houston. If so, they should be okay. I hope Morgan Gautrat is back to being able to play and the former (and maybe future) USWNT player can add another spark to the midfield.
CRS nice 4-0 win last night vs. KC! A couple of breakaways by Mal Pugh reminded me of former CRS players Kerr and Press when they did it - outran the other team defense straight to goal. Brilliant! CRS defense also played well when KC was attacking. Beautiful weather, too! Houston here on Saturday night - go CRS!
No clue how the top 8 pan out this year - seems like everything is an will be up for grabs still. CRS winning - emphatically - last night made it that much harder for LA or NC to sneak into the top 6, especially for LA losing to NC, but I'm not calling anything yet. Heck, even with last night's results, LA is still above NC and KC is still in Shield position. Here are each team's games down the stretch, including opponent's average PPG. (If I was being more thorough, I'd actually factor home & away PPG separately, but I'm just being quick right now) KC [1] 1.13 : vPOR, vWAS, @ LOU POR[2] 1.22 : @KC, vLOU, vCHI, @NJY SD [3] 1.33 : vLA, @ORL, vNC HOU[4] 1.34 : @CHI, vRGN, @WAS CHI [5] 1.58 : vHOU, @POR, vLA RGN[6] 1.20 : @NC, @NJY, @HOU, vORL LA [7] 1.22 : @SD, vWAS, vLOU, @CHI NC [8] 1.26 : vRGN, @ORL, vNJY, @SD ORL [9] 1.34 : @ LOU, vNC, vSD, @RGN WAS[10] 1.34 : vNJY, @LA, @KC, vHOU LOU [11] 1.48 : vORL, @POR, @LA, vKC NJY [12] 1.43 : @WAS, vRGN, @NC, vPOR RGN have the second-easiest schedule by overall PPG but also have three tough away games in that stretch, so IDK how it plays out.... Though if they avoid a loss at NC this weekend, that will go a long way to clearing up the playoff picture. Right behind RGN is LA, with a schedule that looks similar in PPG but is much more accessible in the home/away analysis. Possible that CHI, with their insanely tough schedule, drop out - but I'd say that everyone from HOU on up is a lock for the playoffs, barring an epic collapse.
It's a big weekend for the NWSL. If Angel City and North Carolina don't win, their chances of making the playoffs become slim. The loser of the Chicago vs Houston game will be in danger of falling out of playoff contention, as will the Reign if they lose to North Carolina. No team in the league has a playoff spot wrapped up. Lots of drama to come.
Well, for all of the possibilities coming into the weekend, yesterday's matches clarified a lot. On the bubble, LA and NC both lost while RGN won, meaning we're almost certain now of which six clubs will be in the playoffs. That said, NC has an easy schedule until their last match, while we also get LA v CHI in the last weekend as well, so there's definitely the possibility for things to still be interesting yet. Really glad that all three of WAS, HOU, and SD won yesterday (even if RGN's win made WAS's win irrelevant). Currently doing my best to manifest HOU v SD at Audi next month. I do find it quite humorous that, immediately after the WAS result was final, both the then-#1 team (KC) and the #10 team (WAS) both had a -2 GD
Well we've got teams 7-10 all facing each other tomorrow night, though 9+10 are already eliminated - so we're really gonna see if they can play spoilers or not. Lots of playoff possibilities could be sealed up tomorrow, especially if RGN and POR win their respective matches against the bottom two. I should do some scenario-playing if I get more free time between now and kickoffs...
What does "negative Nancy's" refer to? Anyway, this week-end Chicago Red Stars could easily stumble vs Portland Thorns, and Angel City, who are just one point behind, could take advantage of their, at least on paper, easier match vs Racing Louisville. What's the rest of the schedule for the teams fighting for 6th place? Also, not even the leaders of Portland Thorns have secured a play-off spot, by now? Did I miss anything?
I think Portland has clinched a playoff spot. They have 35 pts. The best SD can have is 35 pts but they lose on tie break.
And, Louisville may have lost Nadim, who suffered an injury in the Louisville-Portland game last night.
SD isn't the issue, it's LA/NC/CHI that are the issues. But yes, POR is in. This is the worst-case scenario for Portland, where as many teams get above them as possible. It still breaks down to only 5 teams passing them no matter what the Red Stars-Angel City result is. #NWSL #BAONPDX pic.twitter.com/uYzuYCQCtc— Jason Anderson (@JasonDCsoccer) September 22, 2022
Oh, ok. I hadn't seen it mentioned on the NWSL website, so I was wondering if there still was any combination that could have seen them out.
To be fair, the Thorns had to tweet at the league saying they were in before the league recognized it. X-D So it's on the official league Twitter, if not the official site.
No. SD isn't the issue, LA/NC/CHI are NOT the issues either.. Portland is guaranteed a playoff spot , does not matter any of those teams can do. You are overthinking the problem. There are 6 playoff spots, if the 7th placed team (SD) can not catch you (Port), then you are in, period.
San Diego (I assume SD stands for them) are currently 2nd-placed, not 7th-placed. You maybe confuse San Diego and Angel City because they're both in Calif?
First off, as blissett pointed out, you are clearly confusing SD and LA. Second, as a general rule, it's not just the 7th place team. It's moot by now since everyone is even on this, but games in hand matter when applicable, as do tiebreaks, so it's entirely possible for 1st to get caught by 8th or lower even if they can't be caught by 7th Third, you're confusing tiebreak procedures. (They changed this year; H2H is down to fourth tiebreak.) The only reason POR are in right now is because CHI and LA cannot both reach 35pts. If they didn't play each other, then they could both catch POR, leaving POR not yet clinched in that situation
I did confuse SD with LA( 7th place team). That was my bad. The rest of what you said was nonsense. They did change the tie break this year and the first tie break, total Goal difference makes it so LA cannot catch Port. hence Port. clinches. You said the 7th place team may not catch Port yet the 8th place or lower can? Are you insane? And of course games in hand matter, they all have 2 games in hand, hence the claim that Port. clinched .
No matter how large a goal difference currently is, there is no mathematical reason to prevent GDs from being overcome. That's true no matter what a specific table looks like - whether it's a difference of just 2 or as big as 32, GD can always be overcome. Any one game could be so insane as to break the international club goal scoring record. For NWSL currently, if POR loses its last two games by 0-6 and LA wins their last two by 6-0, LA passes POR with room to spare. Simple as that. You clearly missed my points entirely. You made a sweeping statement about 1st clinching if they can't be caught by 7th, which was false for the current table specifically (because LA can mathematically catch and pass POR) and false in general because it's not always the case that an 8th or lower team is guaranteed to finish below a 7th place depending on how many games each team has left and if 8th has a more favorable tiebreak situation than 7th. I said in my previous post, and I quote, "It's moot by now since everyone is even on this" because in the current NWSL table, everyone has the same number of games remaining and there are no tiebreak situations left for 8th or below - but you tried to make a general statement about 7th catching 1st because you relegated the specifics to parentheticals, implying the current specifics were just examples of a general rule that was not, in fact, a rule. And to correct you more, I very clearly opened that point by saying I was addressing the "general rule" - I did not mention POR specifically in that bullet at all. And as another terminology side note: "games in hand" is a totally different thing than "games remaining". You might want to refresh your general lingo on top of reviewing NWSL team names a bit more.
It's looking like a photo finish in the NWSL. Here's my interpretation of things. It's likely a three team race for the last spot in the playoffs. If Chicago wins its last two matches, it's in the playoffs no matter what Angel City and North Carolina do. If Chicago doesn't win both matches, Chicago could lose its play off spot to either Angel City or North Carolina if one or both of them win their 2 remaining matches. Portland is already in the playoffs. The next four teams in the standings -- OL Reign, KC, Houston, and San Diego -- are ensured of making the playoffs if they win one of their last two matches.