Why do you think that Freddy's MLS contract will be big? To an informed amateur like me, I can't imagine why he'd have a base salary above the league max. at the MOST. I mean, I would think MLS could outbid Accra Hearts of Oak without breaking the bank.
Maybe his contract will be league max, but he will be making a ton more than that. The league could make a ton of the kid. horrible to say, but he is a pretty big asset for DC and MLS's pocketbook through promotions etc...
DCU averaged 17 or 18,000 when they were winning so projecting a return to those levels with the signing of Freddy isn't unreasonable. Freddy certainly isn't going to hurt attendance, but its doubtful we are going to see 25,000 very often.
While not unreasonable I also think it's going to take becoming a winning team again to get those numbers consistently, I don't think Freddy can do it all on his own.
Yes...the comparison to anything we've seen yet is not fair. The concept of Freddy Adu to the average American will trancend interest in MLS itself. But overall interest in the game will follow. What I mean is, people who don't religiously follow a sport usually use a star to identify with it. The media will never cover soccer like we want it to without a true American star like Freddy. But with a superstar, you will get more TV games and more media coverage. With more TV and press, you get more interest from non-soccer fanatics and higher attendances. Hockey is not necessarily an "American" sport. In fact, I only knew 1 kid growing up who played on a team. But look where it has gone because of superstars like Gretzky...and TV.
of course freddy isn't going to be able to make DC a winner on his own. he's just a kid. we do have some nice players on this squad ........ if only they could remain healthy (Quaranta, Olsen, Rimando). And then it would also be nice if Huddy would actually play guys like Stokes and Carrol during the season so that when injuries occur, they could reasonably fit in.
So why hasn't this happened already with our current poster boy Landon Donovan? Is he not a true American star, a superstar in his own right with World Cup credentials. Tons of press has been devoted to him and he had a great stage at the World Cup, which drew record ratings, to show everyone why they should follow the game. Yet it hasn't happened. Without ratings there won't be more tv and until any MLS game, not just one with Freddy in it, can draw higher ratings than bass fishing or pro bowling on a cosistent basis this just isn't going to happen. So I know everyone is thinking I'm so down on the sport and don't think it can succeed. Au contraire. I see MLS gradually increasing attendance over the next decade and with the construction of SSS, I see a league wide average of around 20-22,000 fans per game. We will have a healthy sized salary cap, maybe $5 million or so and will be an exporter and importer of talented players. I don't think we will ever get a big TV contract like the big four sports, but I don't think MLS will be a time buy anymore. Ratings will be decent, better than bass fishing or pro bowling, but nothing spectacular. More importantly the league will be established and in good financial standing which will help to ensure it's long time success of the league. The long term success of this league hinges more on SSS than Freddy Adu.
Nobody argues that point. However the Freddy factor could bring in more casual fans, some of whom will become regular fans. That influx of fans brings more money; hence investors see it as a better opportunity, which means more private investors, who will buy teams meaning we can move away from the single entity while at the same time moving the league into more and more SSS. Cities see the value of having SSS so they will be more willing to have one in their city (partial public financing, amenable stadium authorities), meaning more private investors, which means greater expansion. Meanwhile having SSS means teams are operating at a profit so salaries can go up, meaning talent goes up, meaning the game goes up, which leads to bigger TV ratings which will lead to TV contracts that add to the already increasing revenue. So yes MLS needs SSS to become self sustaining, but having a star like Freddy for 3 years would be a huge step in getting the money needed for the SSS. He could be the straw that breaks the camels back, but in a good way.
All of this because a 14 year old decides to play in MLS? I wouldn't bet the house on this one. BTW I've got some orange groves in Alaska for sale, you interested?
As has been mentioned in this thread, That 14 year old could very well become the next Tiger/Gretzky/Jordan in the eyes of the media. Now im not going to bet the house on it, but i wouldnt be surprised if it happens to be that way. America loves stars, Freddy Adu could very well become one.
Yes, I would agree with that. I believe also that slow steady growth will result from SSS's. I guess I see Freddy as a way to give US soccer a quick shot in the arm. Soccer in America needs to improve on all fronts, and the one thing that its missing is a superstar. I do see your point about Landon Donovan, but from what I've seen of Freddy (and I'll admit, it hasn't been much) I gotta think he's gonna be better than Donovan in 5 years.
No kidding?!?!?!?!? I think I can see the point you are trying to make: That hockey's biggest and brightest stars are not necessarily American. Right...but...my impression is that US soccer has more of an uphill battle to wage against the stereotypes of being a sport that only foreigners know and are good at. Canada seems less foreign than say Italy, Brazil, etc. It doesn't seem to me that hockey has the same problem. I'm just pointing out that for soccer popularity to really take off, we (Americans) are gonna need to have a player of our own that we can argue is one of the best in the world.
This is the one part of this whole discussion I'm having trouble taking seriously. Not Revs007's post in particular, but the whole idea that the sports media and casual sports fans in the US are going to give a rats ass about this kid. Yes, he's supposedly a fantastic soccer player; but he's a fantastic soccer player. Our favourite sport ranks somewhere on the national radar between high-speed car-washing and the National Iron-Man Paint-Drying Championships, way behind crowd-pleasers like televised billiards and darts. I think curling is about the only sport that is less likely than soccer to draw an extra 5K-10K fans per paid event because a new young phenom has come along. If it happens, I'll be pleased as Punch, but I can't help wondering if people haven't been breaking into the emergency stores of Calvados.
I don't know how old you are, but do you remember and did you follow other sports before they hit their stride? you don't remember the 1979 or 80 NBA finals that were broadcast on TAPE DELAY? Or the fact that hockey barely made the papers in NY even while the Islanders were winning 4 straight championships while i lived on Long Island in the early 80's? Or the fact that just 10 years ago, you couldn't find anyone who admitted to watching golf on tv or playing it, except for one particular group of people? all of this changed with the coming of Bird/Magic, Gretzky, and Tiger respectively. all of these sports had DREADFUL tv numbers (obviously so if the finals of the NBA were on tape delay, just like some of the soccer matches that are now aired). All of those sports were afterthoughts in american culture, but turned around in the blink of an eye because someone outstanding stepped on the scene. You make it sound like its an impossibility when history has quite clearly shown that it isn't.
My feelings exactly. Not knocking golf, but it is the perfect example. Someone look me in the eye and tell me that the popularity of golf would be where it is today without Tiger Woods.
If not in America, global interest will be high. This kid was being sought by big European clubs. Fans know this, as do coaches, agents, and other players. The interest will be whether he can perform on a professional level. It would not surprise me to hear of his games being televised in Europe. It has been done before and if Adu succeeds, there could be interest in him and American soccer by advertisers. There will be a lot of eyes on Adu and it's his space to shine. Success for him is success for the league and American soccer. How anyone sees that as a negative is beyond me. Even if he is subpar, he still has room to improve before he'll able to go overseas.
And with the exception of Tigermania, it still took another decade for those sports to really hit it big. Also Bird, Johnson and Gretzky all played during that decade and helped usher in a new generation of stars like Jordan, Barkley and Ewing. If Adu turns out to be as good as his hype, I'll be shocked if he plays more than three years in MLS. So he won't be around to usher in a new generation of stars, hell he'll still be part of that current generation, except playing abroad, out of sight, out of mind. Could what you say happen? Sure it could. But you seem to think that it's a lock to happen and I say that it takes a lot of things and planets aligning in the right way for it to happen and there are surer bets to place when it comes to the long term future of the league and none of them involve a single player. You have fallen for the hype because you believe that Freddy is going to be the savior of soccer and transcend the sport in such a way that droves of people who had maybe a passing interest in the sport will be come lifelong fans because of him. So what American has generated so much interest that his MLS games were shown abroad? The only player to have that kind of draw was Lothar, after a glorious career and had a hollywood star-like personality and lifestyle to garner such attention. He had a soccer-mad/paparazzi style press corp more interested in who he was boffing and where he was sunning himself than MLS.
one, you are plain wrong about hockey and basketball. it didn't take another decade for either basketball or hockey to hit it big. actually, quite the opposite has happened, especially with hockey. the hockey coffers are actually diminishing right now, and have been doing so for quite a while now, which as you might know, is about to lead to a devastating lockout at the end of the year. With basketball, Jordan, Barkley, etc, just continued the amazing up trend that had already happened due to Bird/Magic. It didn't take until 1990 for basketball to "hit it big" after Bird and Magic entered. that's just plain wrong. By 1990, the Bird/Magic rivalry was already over, as each of them had won all the titles they would ever win. To this day, that is seen as the turning point of the NBA, NOT Michael Jordan. Now getting to your hype issue. You are the one claiming that everyone is saying that Freddy is the savior of soccer. I haven't used those words, nor would I use those words in relation to a 14 or 15 year old in any sport. Unless I missed someone elses post, I haven't seen anyone else here say it either. I have simply stated before and will continue to state, that due to his age, talents, the feel good story of his immigration to the states, and the hype of his pending arrival, his story DOES transcend soccer, and that will result in more fannies in the seats when he actually arrives.
Damn right. MLS needs to increase it's base of core fans. SSS will do far more to reward fans, and teams, than a potential (POTENTIAL!!!) superstar, who in the slim chance he does pan out, will only play in the US for a few years. To use an example close to home, raise your hand if you think the Bullets are going to sell out every home game this year. According to Freddy Adu Hype Logic, they will, since all the fools who showed up to watch Jordan drag his tired ass around the court will come back although he's gone. The difference is the NBA has a far larger pool of core fans, built up over years, to rely on when the fair weather poseurs go back to wherever they came from. A potential couple thousand extra temporary fans who will stop showing up when Adu either sucks or leaves isn't going to do much financially for the league. New stadiums, in better locations with better leases, will. IMHO.
Well this is a yes and no issue. From 1979, the year Johnson (and I think Bird) entered the league, to 1990 attendance rose 45%, although the biggest increase in attendance were from 1985 to 1990 when Jordan entered the league. From 1990 to the present attendance has gone up another 13%. One limiting factor to attendance rise was the size of the arenas, However ratings and TV contracts received by the NBA reached their highest levels during the Jordan Era post 1991 when the Bulls won their first championship. Revenues, sponsorship, salaries and the global reach of the game really took off after Bird and Johnson had passed the torch to Jordan. So in a way we're both right but the league held their first championship in 1947. So it took 32 years for something really special to hit the league. You and others talk of Adu transcending the sport, increasing attendance 2 fold, and being the catalyst for the construction of SSS at least in the city he plays in if not for the entire league. Sounds like a saviour to me. Normal players don't transcend a sport, even superstars don't, only one player in a generation, maybe, can have the kind of impact that you and others think Adu will have on soccer, if that's not a saviour, I don't know what is. If you're so sure of the impact he will have, I'm still willing to put down money on his impact are you?