I’m pretty sure the data I quoted is from the nasal swab tests which were the standard sampling method until FDA recently began approving new products. At least that’s my understanding. The test you reference is more comprehensive.
In a separate text he said that there are virtually no false positives. Both texts were March 20, so 6 days ago.
Here you go. In the Results section, p.6. All of the patients tested had COVID-19. For the nasal pharyngeal testing method the false negative rate was 26.7% (severe cases) and 27.9% (mild cases). So, a tad below the 30% I posted earlier. Nasal pharyngeal swabbing constitutes almost all of the tests done in the USA to his knowledge. The full report is 17 pages, but almost half of them are references and the such. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.11.20021493v2.full.pdf
Thx. I know that China was having so many problems that they switched to CT scans to analyze lung damage to certify CV19. In particular, the test’s sensitivity was poor, so an early or mild infection could easily pass detection. I think the newer tests are more accurate, and most error is in sampling and processing. As things settle down and procedures are better standardized and practiced, this will go way down. I just worry about throwing around 30% wrong will discourage people from bothering with testing or taking it seriously. If anything, false negatives should make us even more on guard. Plus, our known cases have eclipsed all other countries and deaths are starting to spike (doubling per day). April will terrifying.
From various readings 30% false negatives are within the realm of reason (and to be clear we're referencing the rapid test version). Similar rates actually exist with flu tests as well (some claim as high as 50% with rapid tests). There are 3 main reasons - 1) the technique of the tester, 2) timing of when tested - the testing only picks up the virus during a certain portion of the disease life cycle, too early can lead to a false negative, 3) the lab work can have contamination, poor handling or improper interpretation. It's for this reason that some countries are isolating individuals that have had suspected exposure even if they initially test negative. Read a bit, and you'll find numerous examples of individuals with significant impacts of covid despite initially testing negative. I'm not sure the reason, but false positives are viewed as less of an issue.
Things I learned today ITT: there are some damn knowledgeable people here about things other than the beautiful game. I’m honored to be associated with y’all.
I'm not sure it's people bothering with testing, but places just not having a test to go on. I've read several accounts where a patient with symptoms is just not tested for it. Although in some cases they were basically tested for everything else, so it kind of gives a soft positive for COVID-19. It just sucks knowing we could've been in a better position to be having more widespread testing, but due to politics, many places still can't test everyone. I fear these next few months are really going to suck. Between an admin that seems hell bent on getting people back to work, and people just not taking it seriously, I really worry that some areas of the nation are going to be worse than what Italy is experiencing.
We are on the same page. My 40 year career was in public health. I am saddened by all of this. We used to be a nation that invested in preparation for epidemics and pandemics. Remember the old tome, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure”? America has a gloried public health history. A system that was the envy of the world. For well over a century every Administration made sure of it. Republican or Democratic, it didn’t matter. More recently we absolutely blew H1N1 out of the water in mortality terms. Some tweet that “12,000 died and we failed”. The truth is that 60 MILLION Americans survived. There will always be deaths when a strong virus hits a vulnerable population. America not only minimized those deaths, we kept it from ravaging the globe. It was one of the great public health achievements in mankind’s history. Later, we guided the globe in preventing a devastating Ebola pandemic. The people who did these things? Well, they were fired in 2016 and called “Do nothings” by the guy who fired them. Today...here we are. Over 3 Million laid off. We have more cases of COVID -19 than any other country, including China and Italy. The economy is cucking the drain. We had to pump $2 TRILLION (think about that, 2 TRILLION!) of taxpayer (me and you) dollars to stimulate the economy. What in the hell has happened to us? So, I am fairly tied into the health care and public health leadership in Utah. I can proudly say that Utah State/local government and our health care system have been marvelous in their response to the crisis. The USA phase of the pandemic will impact Utah less than it does most of the country imo. Yet, that impact will be awful. It has been estimated that Utah will need 6,000 ventilators. We have 600 statewide. The Feds have a small stockpile, but those will go to the swing states that the President carried in 2016. That’s the political reality. The surge should hit our hospitals mid-April. The peak will be in late May to early June. One major local SLC hospital is forecasting a patient population twice it’s capacity. I’ll assume the others will be the same. What does that mean? It means that hundreds of Utahns who need critical care will be turned away. Will be told to go back home. And we are are the lucky ones! Locally, the Church’s early decision to suspend services and meetings was huge! They were able to analyze their global network of information and take action that our Federal government, with better information, was unable to take. This opened many eyes locally. Then, the Utah Jazz’s positive cases opened other eyes. To make this more personal. I am in the most at risk group. Male, over 60, history of asthma during my life. Mrs. RSLer is a nurse at a major local hospital. We have established an isolation area within our home. We have come to acknowledge the reality that she will be infected. With that comes the acknowledgment that I stand a high chance of infection. The home isolation area might help. It might not. If I become infected, which is likely, I will have little chance of survival. It is what it is. The flip side is that y’all won’t have to read my “devil’s advocate” perspective in all things RSL. I purchased front row, East side, mid-stripe tickets for the NER game for my son’s birthday. I really regret that I probably won’t get to celebrate with him. I am, after all, RSL Till I die!
you really don't need to apologize. Tell your wife thank you and please let this community know how we can help. I don't care where you stand on the devil's advocate thing, nobody deserves to die or go through the hell that this virus brings. And please, all of you, when things get rough, use this forum to vent. There is no reward for ignoring your anxiety and depression that this current situation brings on. If you haven't had a meltdown yet, I am very impressed (if not also a bit concerned). If any of you need help, with anything, please DM me.
You might be interested in this. It’s part of a story about how Bergamo, IT has been devastated. Check out the middle paragraph. “But Ms. Vallati said they had no choice with the gravest cases. The authors of the paper work at Bergamo’s Papa Giovanni XXIII, where Ms. Vallati’s crew have taken many of the sick. Dr. Ivano Riva, an anesthesiologist there, said the hospital was still admitting up to 60 new coronavirus patients a day. They are tested for the virus he said, but at this point the clinical evidence — the coughs, the low oxygen levels, the fevers — is a better indicator, especially since 30 percent of the tests produced false negatives. The hospital had 500 coronavirus patients, who occupied all 90 I.C.U. beds. About a month ago, the hospital had seven such beds.”
We’ve been in lockdown the last two weeks. A coworker was #5 or 6 confirmed case in Utah. I didn’t work the Monday he and his wife were in, but did the next day. I got sick two days later, but never had a fever or breathing issues. We decided not to test then. However, after my wife got the same thing I had, and maybe our 3 year old, the baby just got sick too. This is after 2 weeks of laying low and washing hands every 30min-1hr. Everyone is fine, but I’m most worried about my 8/9 month baby. We’ll be watching her closely, but today was really disheartening. I panicked and made the family get tested at 5pm today. I was planning to go back to work Monday. We will await the results of the test, 24-48hrs. If all 4 of us test negative, I’m guessing we just had some other bug. If one of us tests positive, I’ll be working 1/3rd time from home like I have been. All the medical professionals were saying that a positive diagnosis doesn’t change treatment. However, it will change my behavior, which is infinitely more important, and the whole point.
I worry a bit since I have asthma myself. I'm hopefully still young enough that it won't affect me too badly. I'm fairly certain I'll catch it at some point, since I'm an essential employee and don't have the ability to work from home. I'm good about avoiding people at least.
This conclusion is very fatalistic and I hope inaccurate. I have almost the same conditions - age (although I'm a few years younger), asthma, nurse wife. But in addition, I am significantly immuno-compromised based on medication I take. My wife feels very guilty working at a hospital and knowing the consequences that could have for me. The only option - for all of us - is to remain as safe as possible. Although unlikely, I'm hoping that treatment conditions improve in the near future, and somehow we can "flatten the curve" soon.
As I frequently admit in my BS posting, I tend to be cynical. Utah has done as much as any community (yes, it’s a community) to flatten the curve. A flattened curve still means that 40-50% of the pop gets infected. We just spread out the rate in order to keep our health care system viable. Today we begin our internal separation of living spaces. Only the kitchen and family room will be shared. We can avoid being in the kitchen at the same time. We can maintain a healthy distance in the family room. My projection indicates we will probably need to maintain this arrangement until July 7 or so. There are several factors that could either shorten or lengthen that timetable.
I hope you're right. I see a lot of people out there not taking this seriously, especially at trailheads in the canyons. It's encouraging for me to read stories like these here. My (extended and immediate) family's been on lockdown since the 12th, when my brother tested positive a few days after a family dinner, and it's easier to keep my kids inside when I know there are real people who can benefit from our isolation. Even though, as far as I know, nobody in my household has been infected yet.
I've been MIA on these forums, pretty much, for several months. It started with my view that RSL is going to be very aggravating to watch this season, then the season was canceled. My habits of visiting here were somewhat broken. I come back and see, more or less what I worried about, my online community being hit by the pandemic by actual infection and the economic effects. I see folks who have spouses working in the hospitals and I know you have to be afraid every day. In that situation, I'd consider moving into a hotel room for the duration, if I could afford it. For those of you who have been infected and are here to tell us about it, I'm so happy to know that you are doing OK with this. I wonder about some regulars, and if they are so ill that we don't know how ill they are, or are caring for someone terribly ill... who's missing? It can be unbelievably bad, and still weather it at home: A poster from London on a Formula 1 Racing forum posted that he and his wife are suffering horribly, but still basically ambulatory, as long as they hold on to a wall from dizziness, and avoid aspirating on their vomit after coughing severely. Governors around the nation mostly appear to have been taking this seriously and making decent decisions. We know we can't say that about the White House. Myself, because I'm more vulnerable (age past 60 and heart disease) started wearing a badge on March 6 that said, "Say No to CoVid-19, No to handshake greetings, Yes to head nod greetings." Colleagues at work teased me a bit. A car salesman turned himself inside out at the fact that I refused to shake his hand (it was hilarious to watch), then he told me his girlfriend was a nurse and they had a coronavirus case at the hospital the prior week and it was no big deal (different coronavirus, they weren't testing at that West Virginia hospital yet, anyway). I doubt he feels that way now. He's probably worried if his girlfriend and he will live through it. My colleagues stopped teasing within the week when rumors of us switching to online instruction started to float. We've done that now. I've barely left the house for 2 weeks. My wife had to continue to work daily for a while, fortunately in a nearly empty building. She now is down to 2 days a week. I expect full closure any day. In my family, we are fortunate that no confirmed cases have showed up in our county yet. But, it's out there, just not detected. Someone might be too sick to get to help, too poor and worried that they can't pay, too isolated or mentally incompetent, or just simply asymptomatic or very weak symptoms. In any case, it's in the community, just undetected, yet. Any day now. We are well, visiting with folks via webcam streams and playing games that way to pass the time. I have tons of work converting my classes to online instruction, figuring out alternatives for students who have limited technological capabilities at home. And, hoping that others will act properly and social distance. This, to close from a poster on that Formula 1 Racing forum.
The next few days are very important for all of us. If the projections are right that the local surge will hit about April 10 and that symptoms typically show on days 5-7 (2-14 at the extremes) after exposure then the period April 3-5 will begin the accelerated person-to-person transmission phase. We know it’s out there circulating now. It just hasn’t reached the critical mass to take off yet...but it’s getting close.
I'm sorry that for all you who have contracted coronavirus or are without work and are locked down at home because of the virus. Unfortunately for me, my job is considered essential to the United States so I have to still go to work and because of the type of work I do, I can't work from home very easily, if at all. However, I would appreciate if we stop with the snarky criticism of our current president's response to the crisis. This is a soccer forum and there are other forums where you can vent your hatred of our current president if you so desire. I do not think we want supporters of the president to flood this forum with examples of how our previous president, Saint Obama of the Nobel Prize, and his vice-president, Joe "Hair Sniffer" Biden, did nothing during the swine flu epidemic of 2009. So let's leave the snarky political comments in other forums.
To this end I created a NSR thread a few days ago. No one but me has posted there. So, I post here instead. I guess I and everyone else will continue to do so until we are told not to by BS.
Any snarky criticism of our current presidents response to the crisis equates to more time spent on the crisis by the poster than by our current President. It's always the yea but what about Obama response by the current Presidents supporters. I wonder why. You would think he would take responsibility for what happens during his administration. Oh wait. I will not post anything further of a political nature.
I’m not making that promise, which should surprise no one. The entire crisis has political causes and ramifications. When we are past this the response we implement to better assure we are better prepared for future pandemics will be determined politically. As long as this is the COVID thread this is where I will go political if I feel the need. In the interest of transparency, if I end up dying of this my last words before saying to my family “I love y’all and I’ll see you again in a better place” will be “Trump killed me. He did this.”
Whew! I think? Two negatives. 9% chance they are both false negatives... I kinda wish we had had it, since everyone weathered what we had "fairly" well.