Roster 2023

re this simply shouldn't be this bad, (a) RSL has the same paltry GF and is one win shy of the playoffs again based on -13 GA compared to us. the difference is the team we tied scoreless opening night kept doing that while we started shipping them. (b) MIA and OHAR have basically the same basic statistical look as us, GF, GA, GD, and they are in 9th and 10th in their (other) conference and still close. why? not their road form, they are no better than us. they simply win most of their home games. people obsess about the road thing -- and it doesn't help -- but teams are above the red line right now with the same number road wins we have. it's the road draws and the home wins we are missing.

fwiw RSL's formation lately has been a 442 which doubles up the wing defense. the obsession with the 433 is the ruin of this place.

 

“can’t play the teenagers” blah blah blah

https://www.espn.com/soccer/arsenal...nwaneri-premier-leagues-youngest-player-at-15

more players on their upswing, fewer players slowly swaying on the front porch swing of the retirement home.

 

obviously personnel is an issue but what i am hinting at is a team with our numbers, as meh as they are, doesn't belong down the standings with teams with even worse numbers. teams with our numbers in the east rank much higher. a team with similar GF that we tied opening day is T-8 in our conference.

the common theme is RSL is primarily 442, charlotte is a mix of 4312 and 4231, miami is 4231 or 532. lot of numbers back, 1 or 2 forward schemes.

i mean for some reason it has not occurred to this team that, if we have poor wings pat hasn't fixed, or underwhelming mids, maybe don't play a 433. if you don't have 3 good forwards......maybe don't bother with a 3 forward line. maybe play as many formation forwards as we have decent candidates for the job. 1? 2?

brian and others tend to talk up the "shift" ideas employed between offense and defense, as though they resolve my concerns, but if you've ever played soccer at a decent level, it's asking a lot to make me run back and forth between a couple different places in the alignment depending who has the ball. and it means you are never quite where you are supposed to be for the other function. the wing you want for the outlet is tracked back standing by dorsey on defense, and then when you want him tracking back he may be starting from all the way downfield. we try to have your wing creators doubling as track back wing mid defenders, endline to endline, or to have say your 10 push up and chase. that running exhausts and that concept leaves you vulnerable, because on paper you may be supposed to be back with the mids, but maybe you were just at the endline making a cross, and are tired. and beyond that, the sheer amount of goals starting from the gap in front of the wingbacks speaks for themselves.

eg, elis wasn't the same player in terms of attacking threat when he was told to track back as opposed to sitting on the offsides line in his track spikes waiting on the outlet ball. sometimes you want your key attacking players unburdened by other than modest defensive effort, waiting in a danger spot to go sting the other team.

if our 3 mids can't hold the line, maybe give them numbers help. and long term, yeah, personnel is the primary solution, but like what we do doesn't make sense.

similarly, all the open crosses and header and back door goals. even if this team is a little slow and short there are tactical fixes for that. same goals over and over all season. that's coaching.

i also feel like this team has been most dangerous falling back then sending players into space behind the backs rather than the long buildups or attempted pressing.

 

to be clear, it's not even that i am preaching we have to play any "way" next season. i am kind of hoping this heads the direction of pragmatism. i do think the 433 the way we play it lately isn't practical but that's more trying to push this off the abstract into consideration of the concrete. as in, what works with the personnel, what works period. it will hopefully be different personnel next year. that's when to worry about those tactics.

personally i am concerned we either hire coaches to execute a "way," or hire them for ideas they have before they have a roster to play with. the tail wags the dog. hire a winner and tell them to get to winning. ideally someone flexible.

 

a month and a half is plenty. i see zero value in our large scale low stakes corporate search approach. USMNT used to hire good coaches in a week. you pick who you want, you lay a big check in front of them. you give them whatever power they want, in exchange for trusting they will bring success.

this search is pointless CYA resulting in ever worse candidates. last thing i would want to be doing is layered turning over of rocks trying to find some random guy who is magically going to lead this someplace. we keep getting precisely what we pay for from that process. GIGO. maybe if you keep sucking and having to hire new coaches every 1-2 years, do something different. new tactics. new hiring process. new results.

i presume half the point to the exercise is ferreting out who will agree to some predestined tactical concept chosen by the suits, interference from the GM and analytics department, etc. in short, will you play ball with the top down nonsense that got us down in this hole we dug in the first place. if your reaction is, this is stupid, here's how i'd change it, that probably earns you the circular file. exact opposite of what this needs, which is a thorough clean out and shaking of the container afterwards to get the last bad grains out too.

we're about to spend millions going tinker toys with the stadium then pay bottom dollar for the coach, and carry bad player contracts. we are owned by a real estate guy with no soccer connection and it kind of looks like it.

you wanna solve this in a few seconds, ole is out of work, low, pocchetino, fernandez, de boer, zidane, dunga, rafa benitez, bielsa, klinsmann, ferretti. i don't think a lot of the really good US managers are available right now. maybe wait and see if arena gets fired. that's about it.

a serious coaching hire then sends a signal to prospective players that we are, well, serious, and here is someplace to sign. i want to play for that coach. that team looks like it is trying and will be more coherent next year.

a bigger name coach given more personnel power if not a dual GM job can then improve and discipline this horrifying personnel work. the quality is inconsistent and the fit to system is nonexistent.

this league has a lenient postseason and the amount of time this should take to fix is exaggerated. 1-2 years tops.

 

i don't see a bunch of point to nuance on the roster thread. decline options, cut, sell, trade everyone except raines. blow it up and start over. as many as you can get rid of. not just to change the team but also to liberate the salary structures and tools where we can take this anyplace we want.

in particular, none of these loan guys, they aren't up to spec. quinones is better than thiago but neither is part of a winning franchise future IMO. we need to quit being attracted to "ok." players who can fly downfield then lose the ball to the first defender are actually not that hard to find. gitau could do better than that for a fraction of the price. i don't see quinones as "better" than baird or fafa or others who disappoint. the idea is to upgrade. he is a weaker lassiter. we are moving backward, not forward. we owe him nothing, it's a loan. end it.

none of the old guard. the reflex around here is hug onto sentimental items and limit turnover. or try and get the same player back cheaper. the team is then no better next year.

the team isn't going to improve until the attitude changes from players being supposedly "good" in some abstracted sense gives way to them being better than the other team's guys, and helping us win soccer games. that is the normal, objective definition of "good," ie, better than the other guy. not just vaguely "impressive," which about everyone in pro sports is usually in some facet. we seem to adore what is actually replacement value.

the table says this team is actually "bad." act like it.

 

i know we have plenty of contracts not expiring or optioned right now, but i am going to judge pat and the team by how efficiently they engage in demolition work. if they want me watching next season they will go the extra mile to clear roster space. act like they get it.

if they want me assuming this will continue to be trash, they can passively mope about budgets and expirations while they spend several million on the stadium. hire another no-name coach, nibble around the roster edges.

trade, decline, loan, sell, etc. if bajamich and corona can be loaned, everything can go. just a matter of work and ingenuity. if this is instead about saving a (previously spent) buck -- but i have money invested in quinones, but i spent money on coco and ferreira and hadebe, but HH is our most expensive player and public face -- well, have fun with your unjustified optimism and sunk cost fallacy, i will watch something else. to me, if they need to "buy" a second player for the same roster slot to replace the last guy they bought who sucked or was ok, that's soccer. you eat the old spend. even AEG did that, if nothing else.

history is DQ will be back for a pay cut and we will keep a bunch of junquas and dorseys to be next season's weakest links. we tend to only cut the ones who you almost forget we have, which doesn't change the field product one bit. some point this needs to be treated like a barrel bottom roster.

there is little room for nuance here. it's about hiring a good coach, creating big roster holes, then signing actual upgrades.

 

at the last "chalk talk" where Pat was supposed to speak but backed out at the last minute (don't know why...could be good reason) and Asher Mendelshon spoke, he said this about the roster when asked (paraphrasing here)---

---We do indeed need to score more and the problem isn't Sebas, is that he needs more help and the team is prioritizing those positions. The other priority is on defense. (there was a push back question from the crowd about how statistically terrible we are at scoring in the league and the response was "yeah, but we can't let goals in either so that's were we are looking")
They want to have a HC hired prior to the holidays so that everything can be well in place prior to preseason.
Well over 100 applicants for HC came in within two days of the announcement with some having coached in the Premier league and some others having won championships.---

There was other pablum about how "we have a right to be disappointed" and if the team doesn't make the playoffs next year "we have a right to be angry" and other weird feeling validation corporate speak. There was no other talk about the roster.

 

I like hearing this, there is a lot of men that want to live here and coach the MLS club in Houston Texas U.S.A.
Recall, Canetti used to always moan about no big name player wants to come play/live in Houston type of talk. Why it was so trying for him and Jordan to sign talented players to Houston. Yeah right.

I'm disappointed that our club got bypassed and is not competitive within our own State of Texas!
Then there is the concept of playoffs! You wanna talk about playoffs!!!
Our rights to being disappointed about the playoffs were lit on fire years back!!!

 

I can't believe you compared what Arsenal is doing to us. They've no worry about relegation, and with their budget are contenders for all the top prizes (including European action) and their Academy is slightly more established.

You've seriously lost the plot.

 

Glenn keeps insisting that DPs can be traded & intimates that Coco has the most promise to being moved.

I say get rid of all 3 DPs but that's not realistic. If Sebas & Coco go, I won't shed a single tear. We are gonna have a TON of money available so there is no reason to no offload these chumps and COMPLETELY revamp the roster.

PS

I was told I have a right to be upset if we don't make the playoffs next year so at least theres that

 

Same people would have turned on him had he not bought Coco. I hate MLS lack of transparency, but I think we an infer that mid-season the Dynamo used TAM to buy Hadebe out of his DP spot then executed the purchase option on Coco and the transfer fee, not the salary, made him a DP. Hence the statement from Onstad that next year (I believe he said), Coco won't be a DP anymore.

 

I need to take a listen but the Reddit Dynamo thread has a cliffs notes version. Sounds like we are locked into the 3 DPs we already have for all of 2023. So changes will need to be made around them

 

Focus on center backs please. They can be purchased for modest wages but fill a tremendous need as our MLS team goes heading into 2023.

 

the discussion re DPs is complete and utter passive nonsense. as previously explained re HH and others, i would not trust a darned thing coming from this FO on the roster rules. either for cynicism or incompetence reasons. they either WANT to do nothing -- because the money is into the building right now -- or they don't know what they are talking about -- like that HH couldn't have played earlier than he did.

a DP can be sold, traded, loaned, or mutually torn up. almiron was sold. zardes was traded from columbus. austin loaned then tore up with dominguez.

the least effective avenue of attack would be shopping for trade. "so let's talk trade." i guess. like a precision dumb idea missile. good luck shopping mediocre or bad DPs from a bottom dweller as a trade. "oh, you want me to take your white elephant? i was born but not yesterday."

vs i am sure sebas and hadebe have decent performance value -- they are just not good enough for what we need -- and HH likely has sentimental value throughout MX. and all else fails on at least the younger 2 you could try "this isn't working, can we just tear this up and let you pick your new home."

hadebe came from europe and could go back there. sebas has ok productivity numbers and i could see sebas having value in MX or europe. HH would have all sorts of value in MX. it would require a "come down" but we owe one. the alternative is do this another season or 2 chasing the wooden spoon and see if anyone wants tickets anymore.

dispatching the DPs indicates they get it and are listening to the fans and trying to make this work. passivity sounds like the old regime and we start to ask whether they are ignorant, incompetent, or just milking this for money.

i am disinterested in green coaching hires and more excuses about the roster. if it costs money to fix, get your credit card out.

 

i said fix the defense first, last winter, and was met with chuckles.

 

at least one aspect of the defense that needs to be reconsidered is picking defenders for offensive traits. i don't like it even at the NT level but they are picking from the whole national pool. i don't think a team this bad should be doing cutesy things. they need to get back to fundamentals. defenders who can defend. attackers who produce. get the numbers to competitive levels.

i say that because the endgame needs to drive the personnel decisions. hadebe and the wingbacks are all clearly picked for offense. if you want defense you need a different type of defender. and IMO we want defense.

 

it's common effing sense. people know we spent some money. so it's going to be less chasing the owners -- at least initially. it's shifted to "you spent the money.....on him?" that is pat. and as with jordan, you fired a coach and the cushion of falling on the coach when we get dropped starts to wear out.

 

austin got rid of 2 DPs in no time flat. sorry, don't believe it.

to me it comes down to the willingness to take an accounting loss on the in vs. out. we did this before on cubo. are we still willing to lose money to improve the team? that's what most sports teams do. you spend money when you "fire" a coach with time left. you may lose money when you sell a player for far less than you bought.

the question is, are we going to be so crippled by sunk costs we do nothing. our pattern of late is to eat mistakes for years rather than admit them or take the accounting loss. part of what i am getting at when i say every "loan" becomes a "buy." i get some of you love coco but he's very very very mediocre, produces little.

you cannot make the world series with a bunch of all glove no hit players. that's a generous read on the WHOLE FREAKING MIDFIELD and even a good chunk of the forwards. someone has to score goals. and, well, to be blunt, someone has to break up opposing attacks before it's a final line concern. we have a swiss cheese transition.