Boston Globe Below the breaking news that DC won MLS cup, there's a bit of Rev's content Boston Herald There will be an expansion draft and the Revs have some moderately difficult decisions to make. Brown might be protected and Pepe might not be protected. How about some real speculation/inside info. C'mon guys, give us something to talk about!!!
Protecting Steve Howey or Felix Brillant instead of Jose Cancela would make protecting Paul Keegain instead of Francis Okaroh look like the work of a Rhodes Scholar.
IF that happens, then it's clear that it's ALL about the cap. I really think it would be pretty likely that Cancela, with his salary, would not be picked up. There is a risk, but I don't think Cancela is seen as irreplaceable by Nicol.
Assuming for a second that you're right, and the Revs don't really want Cancela on the team next season. Why wouldn't they... a. Try to trade him and get something in return. b. Try to sell his contract to another club in another country. c. THEN waive him if you can't get a. or b. done. I don't get it. Losing a good player like Cancela for nothing is not exactly maximizing your assets.
Personally, I think Gus is just talking out his a$s on this one. As Mike points out, Cancela is simply too good to not get anything in return for his departure. And the fact that there are some much clearer choices on which SI you might leave unprotected makes this idea doubly rediculous.
IMHO, it seems more that FDA and Gus are putting forth suggestions and speculation, rather than offering up any solid conlcusions here. I'm also getting the sense that the Revs are keeping things really quiet: very little information, if any, is working its way out of Foxboro, this in marked contrast to previous years, and in contrast to other clubs at present.
Mike, Try and look at it this way: Cancela is a good center-midfield player, who when on his game, is one of the best in the league. However, he's not especially a two-way player, and he doesn't offer much from a goal-scoring standpoint, he's thought to be making somewhere around $125,000 or so, and is heading towards the club-held option year in his contract. The Revs could try and trade him, but chances are all they'd be offered would be some combination of draft picks and perhaps a utility player. Now, with rosters being expanded, no firm understanding how much the salary cap will be increased (as has long been rumored), and with no word as to whether the Superdraft will be extended to help provide more opportunity to fill out rosters, I'd suspect that clubs are going to be a bit more protective of draft picks, rather than practically giving them away in years past. Maybe then the odds would be more the addition of a utility player, but the problem with that is two-fold: one, you're immediately taking up cap space again that would be freed-up by Cancela's move, and second, you'd be taking on a player who in all likelihood, would not be a solid case for starting in 2005. So that really only leaves two options to move him, making him available in the expansion draft, or not picking up his contract for 2005 and waiving him... and what foreign club would pay MLS a transfer fee for a player who'll be out-of-contract in a little over a month? If he ends up in the expansion draft, and is picked up by a club like Chivas, it's good for Cancela and good for the Revs, in that, Cancela ends up in a good situation without havnig to scramble for a new club, while the Revs free up an S.I. slot, get a decent chunk of cap space to play with, and have an open roster spot. Then again, the Revs could protect him, knowing they're not going to sign him (this is all hypothetical by the way), then if not able to transfer him, waive him, and leave Cancela free to do what he wants. If you ask me, that would be a pretty cheap way to handle things. Anyway... if we couldn't get something for Cancela, his departure would bring some benefit to the Revs: an S.I. slot, cap space, and a roster spot. The Magpie
Well, IF Cancela gets taken in the expansion draft, AND we are allowed to have four SIs next year AND Howey and Baker are gone AND Llamos and JMM are both gone we would be in a VERY interesting position: we would have lots of cap room, multiple open SI slots AND only need to replace probably one starter from the run at the end of the year. If they take Cancela then we can protect Heaps or Franchino depending on which is exposed. That would put us in the best offseason position ever in the history of the Revs I would guess..... P.S. I like Cancel and would love to keep him, but it is an interesting position for the Revs to be in. We will know all in a few hours as to who is exposed....
So let's assume that none of our 5 SIs will be dropped from the team before the draft, so we would protect four of them, plus 8 American players. The thought of leaving Cancela available for Chivas only makes sense if you are willing to give him up so you can keep the 9th American on your list. Leaving, say, Steve Howie unprotected (an un-drafted) means that the 9th American player on the depth chart has a greater chance of being selected. So who might the Revs have on their list of Americans? 1) Reis 2) Dempsey 3) Pierce A) Kamler B) Heaps C) Franchino D) Moore 4) Noonan 5) Ralston E) Llamosa 6) Twellman 7) Joseph F) Leonard G) Brown The first 7 seem like no-brainers, although Gus suggests that Pierce may be available because he's out of contract (don't know what that has to do with it), but I would definitely keep him. So the 8th and 9th spots seem to be between Kamler, Heaps, Franchino, Moore, Llamosa, Leonard, and Brown. If it were up to me, I would protect Leonard, and leave Moore, Llamosa and Brown exposed. The choice comes down to Heaps, Franchino and Kamler, all useful players with both pros and cons. Who would you rather have, Pepe Cancela or one of those three? Keep Cancela, and take your chances with the possibility of losing a decent, yet replacable player. Tom
IF Nicol is really through with Pepe...then I think he's too good a player to not try to trade first (how about for Mark Chung +). If you're concerned about the "being nice" factor, then take a trade that is somewhat less than you percieve his value as and make sure he ends up somewhere. If nothing works out, then he's waived and the Revs get the same benefits you list above regardless. To just give him away would be insane.
We can trade Cancela, but what would the Revs want from a trade, and what would opposing clubs be willing to give up? I'd take draft picks over a player, and pretty much only that, since I don't expect we'd get any player who'd be an improvement on Cancela. Anything less, then it's roster space and cap room wasted.
Let's find out!! sure, I agree you'd want somebody to step in that can be one of the top starters. But is the point to get somebody for central mid who's better than Cancela or to get somebody that will be a significant upgrade to some position on the field (left-mid, defense)? Isn't whole premise of trades built on the idea of "this guy's not working for us, that guy's not working for you, but they are both good players so let's swap and see what happens"? Given that Cancela has shown he can be one of the best players in the league, isn't it likely that somebody would be willing to take a shot?
Would you take Mark Chung for Cancela? With Chung and Ralston on the wings, TnT and Noonan up front and Dempsey in the middle with Joseph behind him, that's a pretty strong lineup! Then if we can use some of our newfound cap room to pick up a first-rate defender with speed, we should be OK. Tom
If Nicol is done with Pepe and has some plan in mind for the center/attacking mid spot then I would love to trade for a healthy Mark Chung. Just assuming we drop JMM and Llamosa, that's easily more than $350k free for shopping around/raises. If we sign Chung for less than Pepe's salary and/or don't have Adin Brown around, then that's even more money.
Nope.... would be nice if that really were the case, but it's not entirely true. An opposing team is willing to offer "fair compensation" (relative term) for a player they may want, but do they genuinely want to give them someone who can significantly make them more competitive? No. If an opposing team knows the Revs are in a position where Cancela's on the table, and that the Revs are more willing to take something for him than nothing, then why give them equal value in a straight trade? They'll give the Revs what they think they'll take, the value of which (see above) is relative. You can trade Cancela for Mark Chung, or Cancela for Joey DiGiamarino and a draft pick? The Rapids might suggest that Joey D and a draft pick are similar in value to Mark Chung, and perhaps even a deal the Revs would accept, but would that be in the best interests of the Revs? IMHO, no. The Revolution should never settle.... but I'd take Chung in a heart-beat.
But Cancela's a great player and could reasonably be expected to make any team more competitive. Does this mean that the Revs would not ever want to trade Cancela? If you want to get a top player, then "fair compensation" would mean giving up a good player (or equivalent package). right, if it's known that the Revs want to deal then maybe they lose some bargaining leverage. If somebody offers up crap then the Revs don't make the trade, simple as that. But I still say that the answer to "what to do with Cancela?" lies somewhere down the road of try to trade him this offseason, or next season. It does not lie down the road of giving him away for free. You're exactly right, the Revolution should never settle. Looking at our SIs, knowing that ONLY ONE can be left unprotected, and then choosing Cancela as that player would be lunacy.
Nicol just has to protect Howey, so he can have someone to knock back the cold ones with and that he can have at least one player that he can still beat in a foot race. They also need to protect Pierce, because who else would coach that madcap Mansfield JV team?
The whole topic seems a little surreal to me since Cancella, is along with Ralston, Dempsey, Twellman, Noonan, and Pierce, one of the anchors of this team. While, you might say the team didn't look exceptionally well anchored this year, it seems a little silly to start moving your better players when there's so many other borderline players on this team. Chung IMO is a very good player, but simply not of Cancella's caliber. I just can't see him "replacing" one of the few players on this team with the skill and vision to hold possesion in the middle of the field and set up long-range assists. Bad year for Cancella? He still finished the year tied for second in MLS in assists with 10. Cancella played 25 games and finished with 3 goals and 10 assists. Chung played 22 games and finished with 3 goals and 4 assists - not exactly All-Star numbers. Let Cancella go and the very real question is, where do the assists come from? Well they're not all going to come from Dempsey and the left wing. So the way I look at things, it seems silly to even consider letting Cancella go unless the Revs had in mind an equal or better replacement.
Keep in mind that next year Dempsey will be on the payroll. He made $45,000 this past season with P40 and should get a substantial raise (maybe around the 90-120 area). As for Chung, it will be hard for the Rapids to get rid of him. Hankinson never wanted him, but he's gone now. If Hanki was still in town I'd say this deal could be pulled off in a heartbeat. In regards to Pierce and Brown, and even Cancela, if Nicol doesn't want them, he should protect them during the draft to a certain extent. I'd protect Pierce and Cancela because they are positional players, but expose Brown until a player has been chosen and then protect him. Why? Trade bait. Why let these players get away without anything in return when you can let players with lesser value get drafted. But there is always the oppurtunity of this idea backfiring.
I completely agree with all of the above. I think the questions arise because there are different ways to interpret the fact that Cancela was benched for a period of games in the second half of the season. Here are some possibilities: a) Bench top player who is having some poor form to help motivate him for the playoff push b) Coach doesn't like the style of play in the center of the field so benches Cancela to see what someone else can do c) Coach thinks that the service to the forwards should be predominantly via crosses from the wings. Cancela's style of play doesn't fit this model so coach replaces him etc. etc. Gus Martins says today that Cancela might be left unprotected because he "fell out of favor" with Nicol. So IF Nicol doesn't want Cancela back, what is the best thing to do?
Mosler. Perhaps I wasn't clear. Yes, Cancela is a good enough player to make any team competitive, but I was talking in the context of what te other team is willing to offer the Revs. I.e, an opposing team would much rather give up as little as possible to get Cancela, and if they feel they have bargaining leverage with the Revs, then perhaps they'll low-ball them somewhat with an offer they think the Revs will bite at. So what I'm saying is this: if the Revs were to trade Cancela, they better damn well do so for a Mark Chung, and not some average player and a late rond pick; that doesn't help the Revs. That being understood, and assuming we can't trade him before January 1st, then the Revs would do best to let him go. I mean, why sign a player to a contract extension if they're only going to try to get rid of him next season? That ties up cap space, a S.I. slot, and there's no guarantee he'd get picked up, especialy as an S.I., and one carrying a relatively high cap number. That puts the Revs in an awkward position, that puts Cancela in an awkward position, and few people are happy. That being said, if he can't be traded (again, I can't stress enough that this is all hypothetical), then we should let him leave on a free transfer: that gives Cancela the flexibility to find a new club, and gives the Revs the flexibilty of cap space, roster space, an S.I. slot, and the time to find someone to fill it. So why expose him in the draft: I just don't see anyone willing to trade for him, and if someone actually does, I don't have faith the Revs will get equal value for him. The Magpie
It doesn't matter how "out of favor" he may be. The only question is whether the unprotected foreigner is worth more than the 9th American on the list. As I said in another thread, you might be able to make a case for leaving Brillant or Baker exposed, thinking that they are more appealing than Franchino, Heaps or Kamler, but really, it's a toss-up. All five players are serviceable and have both pros and cons, but at the end of the day, if we were to lose any one of those guys, it wouldn't kill me. On the other hand, why would you even think about lumping in Cancela with that group? Tom