Red-State Dems: Jeff Bingaman '82 NM Robert Byrd '58 WV Kent Conrad '86 ND Ben Nelson '00 NE Bill Nelson '00 FL Blue-State Reeps: Lincoln Chafee '00 RI Rick Santorum '94 PA Olympia Snow '94 ME And then you've got Jeffords who is basically a democrat from VT. So the Red-State dems are a little more numerous, but also more senior than their Blue-State Reep counterparts. I'd say it's probably a wash because the senior Senators will probably have an easier time getting re-elected.
I personally don't count Lincoln Chafee as a Republican. Maybe Byrd will retire. here's a complete list of all senators up for reelection in '06 Dems: Daniel Akaka (HI) Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM) Byrd, Robert - (D - WV) Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA) Carper, Thomas - (D - DE) Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY) Conrad, Kent - (D - ND) Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA) Jeffords, James - (I - VT) (caucases with Dems) Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA) Kohl, Herb - (D - WI) Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT) Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) GOP: Allen, George - (R - VA) Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) (may retire) Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI) DeWine, Mike - (R - OH) Ensign, John - (R - NV) Frist, Bill - (R - TN) Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT) Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX) Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ) Lott, Trent - (R - MS) Lugar, Richard - (R - IN) Santorum, Rick - (R - PA) Snowe, Olympia - (R - ME Talent, James - (R - MO) Thomas, Craig - (R - WY) 33 seats up for grabs , 18 Dems and 15 Republican.
On the Republican side, Santorum won't lose his seat, Snowe probably won't lose hers either. Not sure about Chafee. As for Democrats, Bill Nelson should have a fight on his hands, depending on who the GOP sends up against him; I'd like to think Bingaman, Conrad, and Ben Nelson will as well simply based on which states they're from, but I've never heard of any of them so I can't say. As for Byrd, he should win easily if he runs again, but if he doesn't I'd say the Republicans have a very good chance to pick up his seat.
I would actually put Rick "Man on Dog Sex" Santorum as the most endangered of the Republicans. As a Reep who is bat-sh$t crazy right in a marginally blue state his extreme positions on Abortion and Gays is going to hurt him. All depends who runs against him. If Ed Rendell does then Spreading Santorum is done. Did I mention there is a website dedicated to Santorum? http://www.spreadingsantorum.com/
I'm hearing through friends high up in the Dems and Greens here in Maine that Olympia Snowe will not run again in 2006. Her senate seat will likely be taken by US Representative (and hugely Democrat) Tom Allen, who is hugely popular and just won his house seat back by a wide margin. So there's one. On anothernote, the Greens are HUGE in Maine right now, in Portland, the Greens all ran a close second to the Dems for state seats, with the Repugs a distant third in every race. Maine is more and more headed left....at least the Portland are is, and like 1/3 the population of the state lives in the Portland area....Tom Allen's district.
But he's very unpopular outside of PA, which may cause lots of people to contribute money to his opponent. Which may make it a fight. (Or maybe, as was evidenced in the Oklahoma race that Segroves mentioned, outside money being spent for his opponent would cause the Pennsylvanians to band together to support "their guy" 'cause not much pisses people off like being told what to do by outsiders. I think this is probably more likely -- DNC money goes down the drain and Santorum gains support.)
You guys can have Snow and Chafee. They are worthless Republicans. Glad to see Debbie Stabenow is up for re-election in Michigan. She's dumb as a box of rocks and is sure to get ousted.
I think Snowe and Chafee will be taken down, but I have heard rumors that Chafee will leave the Republicans, but if he doesn't, I thin khe will face a tough challenge. As for Snowe, regardless of if she runs or not, I think she might lose, the Democrats are going to be on teh warpath and will do anything in their power to take it back. The same can be said for Santorum. I think that George Allen from Virginia is in trouble if currnet Govenor Mark Warner decides to pursue that Senate seat (VA govenors can't serve consecutive terms). Warner is hugely popular, a moderate Dem who has worked with both parties in the past and I think many Virginians feel Allen is a weak Senator. Also, Frist said he won't run again in 2006, I imagine the GOP would keep that no problem, but you can never be sure.
Santorum should win in '06, barring Rendell running (I don't think his ambitions spread to the Senate.) or perhaps Bob Casey, Jr. (might split the pro-life vote). Bingaman seems to be one of the most anonymous members of the Senate, but he keeps getting re-elected. How are Nelson's chances in NE? I'm figuring the GOP would pick up that seat if they can convince Osborne to run. I don't know enough about the other states to comment.
Santorum isn't going anywhere. He's extremely popular not only amongst Pennsylvanians, but also conservative around the country. Santorum will have no problem raising tons of money and is also on a fast track to the national political stage. Santorum is my odds on favorite for the 2008 Republican VP slot and will make a strong run for the presidency in 2012 or 2016.
Although he's in a blue state, Mark Dayton is probably the most vulnerable of the Democratic incumbents. He has an undistinguished record and has been lackluster with fundraising, although he can probably fund his own campaign like he did last time. There are several democratic incumbents who are safe if they re-run, but may retire. These include Feinstein, Bingaman, Byrd, Kennedy and Kohl. Kohl, even if he runs again, could face a tough challenge if Tommy Thompson runs. On the Republican side, Frist has indicated that he will retire, but run for President in 2008. I don't quite understand the logic in that move, but it's apparently what he has said. Most likely, Harold Ford, Jr. will run against Zach Wamp. That will be a campaign to watch, with an edge to the Reep because of the way Tennessee has been leaning. Possible retirees for the Reeps are Burns and Lugar. Hatch is getting pretty old, and now that he has to step aside as judiciary chair may get bored. But I have heard no other indications that he would retire. Corzine is a lock to win re-election if he runs, but is one of the Northeast Dems who is considering a run for Governor. On the reep side, Hutchinson may run for Governor. Both states would still lean strongly toward keeping the same party in that seat. Hillary may face Rudy Giuliani in the matchup we all expected in 2000. That would be a barn burner. Pataki would be a good matchup to, but I think he's pretty set on running for President in 2008. Hillary creams anyone else who runs. Santorum is definitely a prime target for the dems. Talent is also a possible target. And if Ohio's economy continues to go down the toilet, DeWine may face a stiff challenge as well. As for the moderate northeast Reeps, I think they're pretty safe. Chafee may face a CFG primary challenge, and conceivably a tough challenge in the general. Snowe is very popular and should be fine. All in all, although some "Red Dems" and "Blue Reeps" may face challenges, that's probably not where the action will be. These people have been elected despite party affiliation for a reason. Oh yeah, there are some rumors that Lott is not particularly happy after his demotion and may call it quits. This would normally be a Republican gimme, but there is some Democratic official in Mississippi, I think the Attorney General, who is very popular.
If Santorum is nominated as a VP candidate in 2008 then to expect to hear ad infinitum tapes of Rick babbling on about how being gay is actually one step away from beastility and engaging in man on dog sex. Red state America may be going bat-sh$t religious crazy but they are not THAT crazy. And the same thing that makes Santorum popular with extreme social conservatives around the country makes him just as un-popular (although it is fun to use Santorum in it's new definition) with those of us who oppose his ilk so expect oodles of outside money from both sides. And PA is not OK in the sense of "outsider backlash". But make no mistake about it Santorum will be tough to defeat and it will take a candidate like Ed Rendell to acheive it. Also make no mistake about it if a religious whack job like Santorum is ever our President (as opposed to a fake one we have now) then this nation has ceased to be what our founding fathers imagined.
This is almost as bad for the dems as last week. Right now, Reeps would probably win another seat or two in the Senate. When the ******** will the Reeps have more seats on the line. It ain't fair, I tell ya.
Hillary may not be as safe as it seems in NY, especially if the Reeps persuade Giuliani to run against her.
The Class II Senators are overwhelmingly republican, in '08 there'll be 12 Dems and 21 Reeps up for Re-election.
I have a feeling that Giuliani is still in the running for SecState if Powell steps down. Bush still owes him huge for this election, and Giuliani has aspirations for the White House in '08.
Wouldn't taking a Senate seat in NY be an even bigger prize for the Reeps? Besides, this wouldn't preclude him from running in '08.
There is a good chance Jeffords will retire and not run in 2006 for the VT seat. If he runs, he'll win in a walk. If he retires, there is a chance the seat could go to the Republicans. Gov. Douglas (R), who was just re-elected with 60% of the vote, would likely run for the senate seat. I thought Dean would be the Dem candidate but if he takes the DNC chair, he wouldn't be available to run. Therefore, it's possible Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) would run for the seat as an independent. Sanders is very popular in VT but well to the left of the national Dem party. So, Dems would be in a difficult spot...run someone strong against Sanders and Douglas and split the lefty vote ensuring a Douglas win or take a backseat and let Sanders run his best against Douglas. Regardless, if Jeffords retires, it'll be a hotly contested race. I heard a reporter say the other day that she was putting off retiring until she learned whether Jeffords would retire or not. If so, she wants to be around to closely follow the circus the election would create.
I would be very surprised if an open seat in VT went to a Reep, I suppose if Gov. Douglas ran against a relatively weak opponent he could win.
Sanders gave serious consideration to running against Jeffords in 2000 (I actually got a fund raising letter from him). So it wouldn't surprise me if he went for an open seat.