I agree with many that, unless a lot changes, almost any Republican nominee starts as the underdog to almost any Democratic nominee next Spring. However, amongst some, it's starting to become conventional wisdom that a Democratic win next November is almost guaranteed. In the course of my normal work, I came across the below quote, which I think is very interesting. I'm personally shocked that Bush had this much of a lead in a hypothetical match-up during the summer of 1999. Now, I know there was historical context that needs to be considered (it was in the aftermath of impeachment) and that Republicans were definitely more energized in the summer of 1999 than Democrats. But that's kind of my point. Right now, a lot of the hypothetical head-to-heads are dead heats or show only small leads either way and this comes at a time when a sitting Republican President is hugely unpopular and Democrats are more energized politically. If Al Gore can make up 18 points in 15 months, it just reminds us that there is a long way to go in the the next 18 months. It also might remind us that national polls matter very little right now.