Rate of Ties in the MLS

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Gemmell, Oct 21, 2004.

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  1. Gemmell

    Gemmell New Member

    May 10, 2003
    Gaithersburg, MD
    I have read several threads commenting on how if the playoffs were limited to 4 or 6 teams that there would be less ties cause teams would be fighting it out more and more each week leading to more wins. While I was looking through the standings of the EPL I notcied that there was a lot of ties so far this season.

    After analyzing it MLS had ties in 30.4% of the games as opposed to 34.09% for the EPL.

    What does this mean, probably nothing, but at least compared to 1 league this year we are around the same % for now.

    While I agree with many assesments that less playoff spots would lead to more competition for points, that may not lead to more or less ties. As we area close to a normal rate, though if I have time I might check this out compared to other leagues and other years.

    Its also possible that I am just babbling on something only I care about or find interesting. Enjoy
  2. The Artist

    The Artist Member+

    Mar 22, 1999
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I see one major problem with your analysis:

    You are trying to use facts to debunk widely accepted BigSoccer mythology. Ridiculous.
  3. christhestud

    christhestud Member

    Jun 4, 2004
    I agree with you 100% here. There will still be probably about the same number of tie games if a change is made to the playoff structure. However, I think the intensity of play in most of the ties (and many of the other games as well) would increase significantly, and consequently the games would at least be more entertaining.
  4. prk166

    prk166 BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 8, 2000
    Med City
    So if the EPL had limited playoffs, they'd have less ties too? ;)

    The problem I have with the theory that making the playoffs more limited will reduce the number of ties is that it gets used as a silver bullet theory. That is, it's a silver bullet that will fix the problem; just one shot is needed. While it may reduce the number of ties down the strech, it's not the only factor. A tighter race for the playoffs would at times encourage some teams to play to avoid a loss. And teams play defensively for the tie because of injuries in their squad. Of course there's the whole parity debate and how much that results in ties over the season. Plus, ties just happen every now and then no matter anyone does.
  5. crusio

    crusio New Member

    May 10, 2004
    I understand lots of you live and die by the stats. But stats aside, isn't there a differnece between 2 teams fighting for a tie and 2 teams settleing for one? Atleast to me, soccer is a more subjective game. The percentage alone doesn't tell the whole story.
  6. crusio

    crusio New Member

    May 10, 2004
    Statistically speaking, this is 100% true.....
  7. aosthed

    aosthed Member

    Jul 16, 2004
    40º30' N 111º52' W
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    I'm not arguing one way or the other... BUT if you think about it -

    The fact that the EPL has the same rate of ties as MLS with NO PLAYOFFS, the stats may actually suggest that the MLS playoff system (8 out of 10) is as good as NO PLAYOFF system like the EPL. :eek: ... ;) It may only prove the argument that a playoff system (or maybe just it's current format) has no impact.
  8. Gemmell

    Gemmell New Member

    May 10, 2003
    Gaithersburg, MD
    I looked over the big 4 leagues in europe over the last few years (as far back as cnnsi went). And for the most part 30% was high with only Italy this year and EPL this year at higher rate. And they have played less games so far. By December they will have played more games than in an MLS season so I might try to compare it then and then at the end of the season. More than likely I will just forget entirely or cease to care about this.

    I do agree that limiting playoff spots would make ties more exciting.

    I also have a gut feeling that as the the european leagues get further along getting max points becomes more crucial for certain teams so I would expect that rate to drop, but who knows.
  9. crusio

    crusio New Member

    May 10, 2004
    Has no impact on what? The quality or the quantity of tie games? Just curious what you meant.
    Different leagues and different situations, so it might be hard to compare. For Crystal Palace to draw against Arsenal could be a dramatic game. In MLS, we dont have this kind of match-up, cause teams are more even matched. Just another thing to throw in the mix. In my opinion, its all about the context and and situation behind the draw......... not necessarily the amount of them.​
  10. Franchise

    Franchise New Member

    Aug 21, 2002
    JSC, Houston, TX
    One thing that I wonder about is how people claim there is no playoff system in Europe. Champs League and Champs Cup both seem like playoffs to me. Pro/Rel? Playoffs. While these myriad playoffs aren't exactly like the system American sports leagues use, it still seems to walk, swim, and quack like a duck. Maybe it's just not a mallard.

    [This was not directed solely at aosthed, who often makes insightful and useful comments.]
  11. GutBomb

    GutBomb Red Card

    Aug 28, 2003
    Outside Boston
    MLS Regular Season = EPL Regular Season
    MLS Playoffs = Carling Cup
    US Open Cup = FA Cup

    not EXACTLY, but close enough. the main difference there is that the carling cup is played parallell to the season and MLS playoffs are played post-season. All teams in the top flight make the carling cup. i guess it's a bit different since lower division sides also make the competition (unless I am mistaken) and almost all MLS teams make the playoffs.
  12. feuerfex

    feuerfex Member

    Apr 21, 2001
    Here's some numbers to chew on:

    % ties in MLS by year

    96 - 21.3
    97 - 20.6
    98 - 17.2
    99 - 29.7
    00 - 17.7
    01 - 17.7
    02 - 15.7
    03 - 27.3
    04 - 30.7

    first 4 years includes all games that went to shootout


    % ties in MFL (Mexican Futbol League) by season

    v 99 - 21.6
    i 99 - 24.2
    v 00 - 30.1
    i 00 - 29.4
    v 01 - 30.7
    i 01 - 35.1
    v 02 - 28.1
    a 02 - 28.4
    c 03 - 29.5
    a 03 - 26.3
    c 04 - 31.6

    FWIW (not much) the MFL has a post season playoff similar to what MLS employs


    I think the only conclusion that anyone can draw is that the number of ties/draws varies widely (up to 15%) from any season to any other.
    henryo repped this.
  13. SJJ

    SJJ Member

    Sep 20, 1999
    Royal Oak, MI, USA
    Michigan Bucks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I was trying to find or compile statistics on the number of ties in MLS seasons by the part of the season that you are in. (I mean: percentage of ties in the first 10% of the season, from 10%-to-20% of the season, from 20%-to-30%, etc.) There's the thought that MLS has a big percentage of its ties to start seasons, then it becomes more wins/losses later in the year.
  14. feuerfex

    feuerfex Member

    Apr 21, 2001
    Just for you (and just for this year):

    10th percentile of season - number of ties

    1 - 5
    2 - 7
    3 - 3
    4 - 4
    5 - 3
    6 - 8
    7 - 3
    8 - 5
    9 - 1
    10 - 7

    Looks pretty random to me.
  15. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Upon closer look, have noticed a pattern here, other than '96-98, the % of Ties have generally increased over seasons, until new scheduling / playoffs formats were introduced, and the cycles continued.

    It seemed that teams were more aggressive with new schedule / playoffs formats, but became more settled down the road, until another reset.

    Let's see what's going to happen in this season...

    (My gut feel? The Ties % should be higher than the last season. ;))
  16. IlliniOne82

    IlliniOne82 Member

    Sep 8, 2004
    Plainfield, IL
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't have a huge issue with draws when there are some goals scored, because usually when one team scores the game opens up. If it ends up a draw well that's just the nature of the sport. This year there seems to be a very high rate of 0-0 draws. Out of 36 MLS matches played this season, there have been 7 that ended 0-0. It's a small sample size but if 20% of the games are ending with no goals that's not going to draw in the casual fan.
    henryo repped this.
  17. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Seriously? Thread necro of a over 10 year old thread?
  18. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Sporting Kansas City
    It's Henry, what else do you expect?
    GreatGonzo and JasonMa repped this.
  19. shoeless

    shoeless Member

    Jun 28, 2011
    Houston Dynamo
    Is this worse than 5 new threads from vevo5 about the same topic? Should I start a poll?
    JasonMa repped this.
  20. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    As long as 30% appears in the thread title, yes you can start a poll.
    JasonMa repped this.
  21. footballfantatic

    Mar 27, 2008
    Ontario, California
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The unique thing MLS has which causes an increase in ties is the fact that each team plays each other 4 times within your conference. This gives each team multiple chances to figure out the other teams tactics and match-ups. I think this fact makes our comparison to other leagues of little significance IMO.

    If you only take the head to head match-ups into account, then it would be much more of an accurate representation across leagues.
    henryo repped this.
  22. Inca Roads

    Inca Roads Member+

    Nov 22, 2012
    Sporting Kansas City
    That and the fact that the majority of the teams are on very level ground, financially and in player quality. Bayern Munich doesn't tie many games because Bayern Munich is way better than everybody. Without a gulf in class anywhere near as large, close scores and therefore ties are more likely.
    henryo repped this.
  23. bbsbt

    bbsbt Member+

    Feb 26, 2003
    Oh fer cryin' out loud... I thought this thread was about clothing style ratings of MLS coaches.

    Carry on...
    TheJoeGreene, henryo, GreatGonzo and 2 others repped this.
  24. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    Colorado Rapids
    The number of bowties in MLS is way too high.

    henryo and JasonMa repped this.
  25. footballfantatic

    Mar 27, 2008
    Ontario, California
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good point, so then if you took the middle level clubs from each league(say the middle 5) you could get a very accurate picture compared to MLS. My opinion is that MLS will have a lot less ties than the middle 5 clubs of each 'top' league.
    henryo repped this.

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