R16 July 3 Colombia v. England [R]

Damn good coffee.

 

How does the quality of previous opponents count, exactly? Did Spain and Portugal face quality opponents (each other)? Now they are going home. How about Uruguay? Played 'poor' opponents and is still in it.

You can only beat who is put in front of you. It is all about how these 2 teams match up and who performs on the day.

 

The quality of previous opponents only helps viewers assess the strengths and weaknesses of a team. We have more idea of how good Colombia are at this tournament than we do of England. Simply because Colombia have been tested more.

What we know about England:
Have looked very calm and unruffled. For instance not getting riled by quite dirty fouls and getting the important injury time goal against Tunisia.
Appear very good at set plays with Trippier's delivery, some effective tall headers of the ball and plenty of work on the practice ground. Not tested against a quality defence.
Harry Kane can take a very good penalty.
The first team is very rested. Perhaps a little too much for this match but it would be very useful if they go further.
Goalkeeper is suspect.
Defence might lack concentration/organisation when hit on the break, although this hasn't been tested against a good side.
Plenty of pace on the break.

What we don't know about England:
How will they play against a good team? Sit back more then try and break?
That all the good points in the what we know list have not been tested against a good side.
How they will cope under the pressure of knock out football. They have been under near zero mental pressure so far.

What we know about Colombia:
Colombia had a much harder task to get through the group stage.
They're more experienced than England.
The attack is formidable but the defence may be suspect.
Ospina is a 2nd rank goalkeeper. 2nd choice at Arsenal and not very tall at 1.83 m (6 ft 0 in).
James is the most creative player either side have.
Falcao is capable of finishing anything.
Colombia will have more fans in the stadium although a lot more England fans have been travelling out over as the tournament has gone on. It won't be as one-sided in terms of support as the other matches Colombia have played.
They don't like people misspelling their name!

What we don't know about Colombia:
How will they defend set pieces against a team that is very good at them.
They've played much tougher matches than England, including one with 10 men for almost the whole game. Will their players be in as good a shape?
Will James play?

My conclusion
Colombia are slight favourites especially if James is fit. However, it is tight and you can make a good argument for either side. In common with much of this tournament attack looks better than the defence. It is very unlikely to be 0-0 after 90 minutes. Whoever wins will get very excited as the path forward is wide open.

Will be interested to read your responses. Especially from Colombians who will naturally have a greater understanding of their teams strengths and failings than I do.

 

I think that is a pretty good assessment of the match.

 

Only thing I will slightly disagree with is the fans in the stands estimation.
There is way more buzz coming from Colombian fans and there's simply more guys willing to pay big amounts of cash to get into this one.
I think it will feel like a Colombian home match.

 

Of course we will see. I do expect there to be more Colombians than English in the stands. However, there have been a lot more English travelling out since the first couple of games. There were quite a lot in the ground for England v Belgium than for Tunisia and Panama. More have travelled out over the weekend as all the hype over danger in Russia has turned to be just hype. It all depends on availability of tickets. It isn't one of the big grounds. The touts will be charging a lot.

I reckon 2:1 in Colombia's favour. BBC article would back that sort of ratio up: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44663009 that will not feel like a home match as our lads will be very loud. As of course will yours but a 2:1 ratio isn't the extent you'd get at a home match. Score 2 in the first 10 minutes and I'll have to eat this post!

 

I can see england winning 2-0 if they play well..if they start the game shaky i can see colombia winning 2-1

 

In theory, this is the R16 game for a ticket to the final.

In practice, I suspect it's going to be Croatia or the Swiss making it.

 

Swiss? England and colombia are both better than the swiss

 

Colombia and England play more watchable soccer. But the Swiss are formidable in their simple game. Underestimate them at your peril.

 

It looks like James won't play tomorrow.

"Bayern star doubtful for England match due to calf problem."

https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...ekerman-upbeat-despite-james-rodriguez-injury

 

In all honestly most Colombians are rolling their eyes because it's clear that Pekerman won't/shouldn't risk him; Pekerman knows that he has the players to pick up and fill that hole that James will leave even if he is capable of being on the bench.

 

Clearly many England fans have been spooked out by the Euro 2016 incidents and how Russians will treat them, which has been a myth up to this point. It's been a healthy atmosphere in Russia thus far.

 

England (with their first team) have come out firing against Tunisia and Panama. I expect they'll keep that up.

 

What makes me comfortable about this game is that England aren't afraid to attack and will make this an open game; Poland did the same and it was because they wanted to win.

In this game, both teams will go for the win and not play defensive against one another.

 

England supporter here.

My brain and my gut tells me this will be a close match. Colombia must keep Harry Kane quiet and have a man in front of him at all times with Ospina in goal. I have a feeling England will have more of the possession, but will struggle to create chances if they don't score in the first 15-20 minutes. Another thing Colombia will have to deal with is England's pressing, which could cause plenty of mistakes if they're too careless or lack ability. Lastly, as mention before England has been decent at set-pieces and you wonder how Colombia will deal with them. We even have some set-piece set-plays that have worked to perfection a couple of times and forced saves.

England will be susceptable to counter-attacks, which might be. Colombia's best bet at nicking a goal. They got a handful of talented players to cause England problems.

I think this is a 50/50 match when you boil it down.

Prediction: 2-1 England.

Kinda biased, but I've been confident since the start of pre-tournament friendlies and usually guess correctly, however this World Cup has been so unpredictable, especially in the knockout stages.

 

Colombia use a 4-3-3 formation. England match up better facing four at the back.

 

Pekerman would change his style depending who he faces; I shit you not that he at times can come up with approaches that make ZERO sense on paper but takes both sides by surprise.


This guy...he's pretty unpredictable in more ways and it can be frustrating for the fans. :/

 

One thing that I've seen people right-off England for is that we've only beaten Tunisia and Panama. Definitely good reason for that, but the thing about England about this team is that they put away more of their chances and have created quite a few great opportunities, including some against Belgium. This is the most clinical England team in a major tournament since Euro 2004.

We beat Panama 6-1 and if we were ruthless it could've been double-digits. Against Belgium we had plenty of half-chances, but instead of Kane and Trippier we had Vardy only in the box and Alexander-Arnold who had a poor day the office supplying crosses. Poland had attackers, but were terrible at moving off the ball. England with Lingard, Sterling, and Dele are good at that, which should cause problems at the back for Colombia.

 

Late to the party, but ELO has these two as the two of the closest rated teams in the tournament:
England 1944
Colombia 1939
(oddly one team fits betwee them: Portugal at 1940)

That means the odds would be 51% England win, 49% Colombia do.

This should be one of the best matches of the R16. I'll be happy regardless of the outcome.

 

This is a 50/50 game to me but I give England a slight edge.

Truth be told, I will be rooting for them because England has been embarrassed enough at the World Cup and other tournaments. Their fans and media used to be insufferable but a country that hosts the EPL and has enough talent, skill and experience to do better than England have done, deserves it more than Colombia.

That said, I shudder to think what will happen if England makes the final! All the English hooligans and trolls who have been quiet after their repeated failures are surely (or maybe not?) going to return and make me regret wanting to see England do well.

 

They overhype themselves; it's football politics 101 when you consider how much backing they get and praise for their league and domestic football overall since it's the most popular in the world.

They put unrealistic expectations on their national team just because these players do well in their own league.

It's unfair how the fans do this to their players and don't just appreciate the fact that they qualify more than a lot of countries can brag about...

 

I think England will dominate. I don't expect a close game at all. Colombia has looked uneven and undisciplined, with only intermittent bursts of offensive brilliance, most of which came against a lowly Poland squad. In a World Cup defined in part by set pieces, England has shown a particular deftness at employing them.

I'm also one who firmly believes England will win it all this World Cup. I don't necessarily believe they're the best team, or the most talented. But I feel like the stars have aligned for them. Between the talent they do have, a favorable group draw, and a relatively open road straight to the final (with the understanding that, yes, nothing is guaranteed), I think things will fall into place rather cleanly for them. Colombia will be the first piece on their road to glory.

 

I still recall being a young boy (7-8 years of age), who had just found my interest in football, on the school bus returning home with two older kids (12 years old) debating intensely who was the best team in the world: England or Brazil? The only thing I still remember from that debate, which was taking place sometime after Wc1970, was Pele on the one hand, and Gordon Bank and England being the birthplace of football on the other hand...

Since their 1966 title at home, England have done nothing which would come close to matching their real worth and pedigree. They gave away the long ball tactics they used to be famous for and which didn't win them many fans, but they still couldn't come up with a side that won anything worthwhile. They may have had some decent, even good teams, along the way. But frankly, for a side like England (and their insufferable fans and media aside), just qualifying more regularly than many other countries is hardly a boast.

I think they are due making it to the final, but I hope they meet Brazil and still discover that nothing beat juga bonito!