Are you speaking strictly about Colombia, or all friendlies in general because the Nigerian media is still talking of us playing somebody or at least having a training camp in europe.
The way for AFC to have three groups of four and playoffs without needing as many matchdays is to have two second place teams play each other and one go to the playoff. If you want to reward the best second place team, you could give them a choice between the other second place teams and the team from another confederation. The confederation would be known, and even if the team wasn't known, there would probably be four or fewer possibilities. Letting a team pick their opponent would be unprecedented, but having playoffs like that has happened. In WCQs for 2002, UEFA had 9 groups and 13.5 spots. 8 of the second place teams played another second place team, and Ireland beat Iran. Is there video of previous draws? That would prove that it was done by a draw rather than decided and then announced. There shouldn't be intentional rotation because the World Cups should be independent of each other. I think it was done by draws, but I'll stay give the probability that the rotation would happen randomly. Concacaf got a playoff spot for the first time in WCQs for 2006, and we're looking at four World Cups where the same four confederations were in playoffs. It can all be looked at from the point of view of one confederation because once you know what confederation the first one plays, there are two left. Concacaf played AFC for 2006, CONMEBOL for 2010, OFC for 2014, and AFC for 2018. A rotation can start at any point, so 2006 doesn't matter. For 2010, a rotation would let Concacaf play CONMEBOL or OFC, so that was a 2/3rds chance. In 2014, OFC was the confederation that hadn't played Concacaf, so that was a 1/3rd probability. A rotation made 2018 match 2006, so that was a 1/3rd probability. Multiplying makes a 2/27ths probability, which is 7.4 percent.
When they did a draw it was done with the qualification draw. Since the 4 way playoffs we haven't had that many draws. 2006 - No draw. Original allocation had a playoff between CONCACAF and AFC and OFC had a full spot. This was converted to a playoff with CONMEBOL after the 2003 confed cup. 2010 - no draw. Part of the deal for Australia moving to AFC was a playoff between OFC and AFC. 2014 - a draw was conducted at the preliminary group draw which conveniently finished the cycle with CONCACAF playing OFC and AFC v CONMEBOL. 2018 - a draw was conducted at the preliminary group draw which conveniently restarted the cycle. 2022 - There doesn't seem to be a preliminary group draw date. AFC and COMNEBOL have normally started the process beforehand anyway and it seems only UEFA, CONCACAF and OFC still have to draw preliminary groups with CAF already having drawn teams for the group stage.
That makes sense since it would save a lot of time. But I wouldn't let teams choose who they want to play. Its a bit amateurish and sort of derogatory. But more importantly this situation doesn't really call for anything like that since all 3 teams achieved the same thing (i.e. finished second). I'd just put 3 balls in a bowl and have a random draw.
So a note in USSoccer's press release on its new schedule for this WC cycle is throwing me off: @EvanJ if this is accurate, this would be the first time ever that FIFA conducts a WC finals draw before all the participants have been decided...right?
Yes, after the ;ast FIFA Council meeting Infantino said the WC final draw will be held in April 2022, as was originally planned. I was suprised too.
Last time the draw was based entirely on the FIFA rankings (except for the hosts as always). Not knowing all the teams is going to mess that up. I suppose it probably wouldn’t matter if they moved back to the old system with only the top 7 teams actually being seeded and the rest being placed according to confederation in the other three pots (the new FIFA formula will probably keep any team in the playoffs out of the top 7, mainly applicable to CONMEBOL). (I’m not a fan of that system because it screws unseeded non-UEFA teams.) Alternately, you could use the system from last time and just put the playoff teams in Pot 4. This would probably not be too bad, but expect some complaints from whatever poor Pot 3 side gets the CONMEBOL #5 from the bottom pot. (Imagine Australia or somebody sneaking into Pot 3 only to draw Colombia from Pot 4 )
Another option is seeding based on the assumption that the higher ranked team qualifies from each playoff. Most likely this is what will happen anyway, and if it somehow doesn’t happen and some minnow actually beats what would have been a pot 2 side, can you really begrudge them at that point?
Nah, we're used to tough draws. We usually get one of the top three ranked teams from whatever the other pots are.
I suspect it has more to do with the need for teams and travelling fans to plan, and for FIFA to have a good amount of time to conduct the various phases of ticket sales. This is totally normal as the draw is typically 6-7 months before a WC kicks-off and even that is too late for organizing some things (e.g. NTs often reserve their hotel before they know which cities they are playing in).
What is there to organize though? There's not going to be many Hotels to choose from and all the games are going to be in a handful of cities that are a stone's throw away from each other anyway.
True, I guess that one example I gave doesn't really apply in this case. There is still the need to allow time to conduct the various stages of ticket sales though. There are usually 2 phases before the draw and about 3 phases after the draw ("lottery", "first-come, first-served" and, if anything remains unsold, the "last minute" phase). I don't think it would be a good idea to reduce the time available for selling tickets. They could probably get away with a shorter sales campaign in 2026 and still sell every ticket but not for this unappealing WC. lol
I'm guessing it's the first time, but if a World Cup draw happened before qualifying finished in the many World Cups before I followed soccer, I wouldn't know. I rooted for USA in World Cup 1994, I watched the Hexagonal for World Cup 1998, and starting with World Cup 2002 I followed qualifying in every confederation. Having the draw before finishing qualifying makes it harder to have four pots of eight based on merit. The OFC winner will have a much worse FIFA Ranking than the other three playoff teams. They could do the draw as if the better team will win the playoffs, which is what UEFA does in Champions League and Europa League Qualifying Rounds played in consecutive weeks.
In 1954 Spain was seeded on the assumption that it would qualify but in fact proceeded to lose its de facto playoff (technically it was a two-team round robin) against Turkey. Spain actually had the higher aggregate score, but they didn’t bother using that in those days, so they played a third game on neutral ground in Rome to settle the tie. The game finished in a draw, so they had a young local boy pick one name out of a hat and he picked Turkey. Turkey qualified and took Spain’s position as first seed in its group (which produced the two finalists of that World Cup, West Germany and Hungary).
"WM 1974" The draw was held on January 5 when 15 of the 16 qualified teams were known. In UEFA Group 7 Yugoslavia and Spain had finished level on points and goal difference so a playoff in Frankfurt was set up to determine which nation qualified for the '74 finals. The playoff was played on February 13, over a month after the draw had been conducted. (Yugoslavia defeated Spain 1-0) Interestingly, In UEFA Group 1 Sweden and Austria also finished level on points and goal difference and had a playoff in neutral Gelsenkirchen to determine which team qualified for the finals. But that playoff was played on November 27, well before the draw took place. So why was the Yugoslavia-Spain playoff delayed until after the draw? Back then qualifying matches weren't as smoothly scheduled as they are today.with FIFA Calendar dates and internationals being played during a 'window' throughout Europe (let alone the world). Group 7 finished up its regular schedule on December 13. We can only assume the two countries couldn't agree on a date for the playoff leading up to the draw (?)
unless I've made a mistake (possible), this is the USMNT schedule JUN-21 (1): AvF Winner v USA JUN-21 (1): USA v BvE Winner JUN-21 (2): Honduras v USA JUN-21 (2): USA v Jamaica SEP-21: CvD Winner v USA SEP-21: USA v Costa Rica OCT-21: USA v Mexico OCT-21: Jamaica v USA NOV-21: USA v AvF Winner NOV-21: BvE Winner v USA JAN-22: USA v Honduras JAN-22: Mexico v USA MAR-22: USA v CvD Winner MAR-22: Costa Rica v USA
So USA - Mexico in October? Columbus could get quite Cold during that time assuming we still will play there. It would probably be even colder in my new proposed Venue (Minnesota.)
we can probably rule out any NFL turf stadiums for USA v Mexico as the NFL will be playing and not enough time for the overlaid grass to set. I was thinking Seattle.
So not only do the #1 seeds host the #2 seeds in the second round, they also host the #3 seeds! Crazy format. But hey... that's CONCACAF.