Portugal UEFA Competitions Thread 2021-22

Interesting year shaping up for Portugal in European competition. With the addition of a third competition--the Europa Conference League--there's more to keep track of and at least in theory more chances for Portuguese teams to enjoy success in a Europe-wide setting. Here's a quick sense of where things are at:

1. Champions League (CL)
Porto and Sporting are already into the group stage. Benfica thumped Spartak Moskva 4-0 on aggregate in the initial qualifier stage, but still has to beat PSV Eindhoven in a final playoff to reach the group stage as well. First leg went all right for Benfica, they won at home 2-1. But that away goal may hurt them (though I heard a rumor that UEFA is not using away goals as tiebreakers--anyone know anything about this?) in Holland. 1-0 win would do it for PSV. If Benfica fails to qualify for the CL though they'll be in the Europa League group stages.

2. Europa League (EL)
Braga is in. Benfica may join them, see above.

3. Europa Conference League (ECL)
This has been a really interesting new addition. It's basically a third competition for teams that don't make the EL or who fail out at the qualifying stage of the EL. Portugal has two teams seeking to qualify for the ECL group stage: Sta Clara and Pacos de Ferreira. Both did great in their initial qualifiers, going undefeated to reach the final playoff before the group stage.
But both teams got rough draws. Sta Clara got Partizan Belgrade, a good but not elite team from Serbia. But Pacos de Ferreira got Tottenham Hotspur, possibly the strongest team in the ECL. First legs were yesterday and both teams won. Sta Clara won 2-1 at home v Partizan Belgrade, which puts them in a good but not great position to advance. But Pacos de Ferreira won 1-0 at home v Tottenham, which is a fantastic result and very admirable. With no away goals conceded, who knows? Maybe they can pull of the miracle and qualify for the group stage vs the team that was sixth in the EPL last year.

Owing to the teams' strong performance in early qualifiers, Portugal is now ranked 4th this year in Europe, but it's way too early for that to be meaningful, since the top countries haven't really gotten into the action yet. Still, it's a good start, and three big qualifiers--Benfica, Sta Clara, and Pacos de Ferreira--to watch out for next week.

 

Holy crap this is right for all competitions:

https://www.uefa.com/returntoplay/n...way-goals-rule-in-all-uefa-club-competitions/

I guess the idea was that there's far less home field advantage now than when the rule was created decades ago, so it no longer makes sense to place such a premium on away goals. Really major change, should be interesting to see how it unfolds in Europe this year.

 

Gutsy 0-0 draw in Holland down a man most of the way puts benfica into the main draw of the CL. Also gives Portugal 5 big uefa points and into temporary (and meaningless) second position overall in Europe.

 

Bummer outcomes in the final state of ECL qualifying. P de F lost to Tottenham 0-3, for an aggregate loss of 1-3. Still a decent result to get a win against probably the strongest team in the tourney.

Worse though Sta Clara lost 0-2 in Belgrade to Partizan, for a 2-3 aggregate loss. This was their first loss in ECL qualifying and a real drag since they had a solid shot to qualify to the group stage.

These outcomes end Portuguese interest in the new ECL tournament short of the group stage.

 

Champions league draws are rough:

Group B: Atletico Madrid; Liverpool FC; FC Porto; AC Milan
--This is the group of death. How Milan was in Pot D I'll never know but ouch. If Porto can qualify even to the Europa League in 3d that would be a good outcome.

Group C: Sporting CP; Borussia Dortmund; AFC Ajax; Besiktas
--Tough draw for Portugal's one Pot A team, Sporting. But not a death group like B so qualification seems plausible if Sporting is on their game. Given their variable European form it's hard to say.

Group E: Bayern Munich; FC Barcelona; SL Benfica; FC Dynamo Kyiv
--Ouch here too to get Barca as the Pot B team. Bayern and Barca are the clear faves to advance. Maybe Benfica can get some upsets but at the very least need to do well against Dynamo Kyiv to secure a place in the EL.

These are some tough groups but it's the Champions League so that's expected. All three Portuguese teams will be underdogs but we'll see if they can rise to the occasion and pull some upsets.

 

Europa League Group F: SC Braga; FK Crvena Zvezda; PFC Ludogorets; FC Midtytlland.

One of the hardest groups to spell in the entire EL. On the serious, this doesn't seem like an unreasonably hard group. Braga avoided teams like Napoli, Leverkusen, or Leicester in part thanks to its Pot A status. Failing to qualify, possibly even first, would be a disappointment.

 

Rough week overall. On the good side, both Porto and Benfica got tough away draws (vs Atletico and Dynamo Kyiv, respectively). On the bad side, Sporting got just humiliated at home, 1-5 to Ajax--a game that I thought would be at least competitive, if not a win for Sporting. Also, Braga dropped a 1-2 decision away to Red Star Belgrade, having equalized late and then given up a later winner.

So with three away games and one home game, a reasonable expectation would have been three draws and a win for six points. Portugal got two. That's not great. Hope matchday 2 is better.

 

Hey this week coulda been worse. As @fdasilva pointed out, with this slate of opponents, Portugal could have gone 0-3 in the CL. But after a rough first day with both Porto and Sporting losing at home, including a truly humiliating curb-stomp of FCP by Liverpool, we turned it around. Great win by Benfica, 3-0 over Barcelona. And then Braga came from behind after a poor first half to beat Midytlland 2-1. So 2-0-2 is not a spectacular result but it's not terrible either.

Portugal now sits tied for 7 with France on 4.75 points. This is not a great or terrible place to be. Still time to turn it around and secure advancement to the next round of either competition.

 

I'm generally supportive of and interested in Portuguese teams in Europe, hence my focus on this thread. I don't have a loyalty to any one team to the exclusion of another.

 

Very strong week:

Porto 1-1 AC Milan
Besiktas 1-4 Sporting CP
Benfica 0-4 Bayern Munich
Ludogorets 0-1 Braga

These outcomes put Portugal on 5.75 UEFA coefficient points, good for sixth overall in Europe. They also position all four teams to advance at least to the next stage of the Europa league, and in the case of the three CL teams, possibly even to the next round of the CL (despite the brutal competition).

In Group B, Porto is third but only due to goal difference, they have the same points as Atletico Madrid. AC Milan shockingly has zero points. In Group C, Sporting's win at Besiktas puts them third, and if they can repeat the feat at home they can pretty much confirm that they'll finish no worse than third. In Group E, Benfica is shockingly second despite getting whacked by Bayern this week, though if Barca beat Dynamo Kyiv again then they'll probably drop to third. But they are strong favorites to at least finish ahead of Dynamo and reach the EL.

In the EL, Braga's away win to Ludogorets puts them second in Group F on 6 points, one behind Red Star Belgrade with 7. There's real separation in this group--the third and fourth place teams have 2 and 1 points respectively, so if Braga can win again the could theoretically seal up qualification next round.

Given how rough the CL draws were, just surviving to the EL would be a decent outcome for those teams. If one could get to the CL knockout rounds that would be phenomenal. This week's results went a long way toward a good outcome.

 

Yeah major typo appreciate that. That’s what happens when you write a post early in the AM after getting shit sleep

 

Good week, though not a great one. Convincing wins from Sporting and Braga (v Besiktas and Ludogorets respectively); solid draw from Porto (at Milan); and another tough loss for Benfica (2-5 at Bayern Munich). All three teams are in strong position to advance to at least the Europa League; all three also have plausible pathways to qualifying for the UCL R16.

But we lost relative ground in Europe because there are other nations with more teams doing better. Recall, we had two teams fail to make the group stage of the new Europa Conference League. Those nations remain part of Portugal's UEFA points denominator but add nothing to its numerator. So now we sit a respectable seventh in Europe. The six countries above us all have all of their teams alive in Europe, most thanks to the ECL.

Netherlands is a great example: They have five teams all doing well, *three* of which would be out of Europe but for the ECL. And with Ajax having a dominant CL group stage, they're more than a full point in first place. To @fdasilva's point, yeah they'll probably take the lead against Portugal next year. The next year to drop out of the points calculation will be 17/18, which was great for us and bad for them. Plus they are way out ahead this year and have been doing well recently. The numbers tell the story better than my narrative: https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/crank2022.html.

If Portugal is to remain competitive at the same level in the UEFA rankings as in past years, a key factor will be getting teams into the new UCL group stage and accruing points there.

 

Yesterday: Barcelona 0-0 Benfica

A scoreless draw is not the most exciting result but this is actually a huge outcome for Benfica's chances of getting out of this group and into the knockout rounds. The result leaves Barcelona two points clear of Benfica (7 points to 5) and even on goal difference (at -4, a sign of Bayern's dominance).

The good news though is that Benfica remains within striking distance of the second spot. Specifically, if Benfica wins its next game and Barcelona doesn't (i.e., if they draw or lose), then Benfica is guaranteed to advance. If they win and Barca lose, they will be ahead on points. If they win and Barca draw, they would be ahead of Barca on goal difference and already hold the head to head advantage.

So how likely is is that Benfica will win and Barca will not? Well the matchups couldn't favor it more. Next game Benfica is at home against group bottom Dynamo Kyiv, a team already eliminated from Europe. But Barca is away to Bayern Munich, a team that has not dropped a point so far and beat Barca in Barcelona in the previous group matchup.

Nothing is guaranteed of course. Benfica still has to beat Dynamo Kyiv for any chance to advance, and that's not going to be easy since all CL teams are quality. It's possible that already-qualified Bayern will mail it in next game and/or that Barca will find their form and get a result. But Benfica is, despite their highly competitive group, in a sneakily good position to advance.

Worst case they go to the Europa League, which is not a terrible outcome anyway.

 

Also today Sporting could clinch a spot in the next round with a win by two or more goals against Borussia Dortmund. They are now tied with Dortmund on 6 points, and lost away to Dortmund 0-1. So if they win 2-0 they'll win the head to head with Dortmund on goal difference and will also be very likely to end up with more goal difference overall (they'd be at least +4 to Dortmund's -6, and making up that gap would be nearly unheard of in one game). Dortmund is a tough foe but they haven't been gangbusters in the CL this year and a result like that is totally plausible.

 

Tuesday was a bad day--thumping losses for both Porto and Sporting--but not a catastrophic one. Sporting had already confirmed its place in the last 16 with its win against Dortmund, so the result was irrelevant. And Porto was lucky that Liverpool beat Milan, which allowed FCP to get into the Europa League despite crashing out 1-3 at home to Atletico Madrid. No UEFA points on the day, but both teams remain in Europe.

Today by contrast was a great day: Benfica beat Dinamo Kyiv convincingly 2-0, while Bayern pummeled Barca 3-0. That combination of results sends Benfica through to the R16 as well.

When the CL draw came out I thought Portugal would be incredibly lucky to have a single team go through to the R16; to have two with Porto in the EL is an outstanding outcome.

As for Braga, their gut-wrenching stoppage time loss to Midgetland cost them dearly in terms of qualifying position. What would have been a point that confirmed a spot in the next round turned into zero, and now it's all to play for.

Just about anything could happen tomorrow, but the simplest formula is this: If Braga beats Red Star, Braga go through as group winners. If they draw Red Star, they go through in second if Midgetland draws or loses; and they're out if Midgetland wins. If Braga loses, they can still go through in second if Midgetland loses or draws. It'll be interesting!