Points For The Title

Thanks for the look ahead, prk. I'm a numbers guy, so I like seeing things in this "what-if" scenario, even if its damn near impossible to predict what will happen.*

Here's the way I am currently looking at things. First of all, Arsenal won the league last year with 90 points--a total that looks unlikely (though certainly not impossible) for them to attain again this year. And I'm not just talking about the last two weeks of them looking slightly worse, I'm saying its unlikely they'll find that same combination of good form and lack of injuries. Moving on, Chelsea look quite a bit stronger now that they're scoring, albeit against relegation-threatened Blackburn and West Brom. If they really start to come together, people will see them as being more than capable of putting together a second-half run to distance themselves from the rest of the league. I haven't seen anything from them that really makes me feel they will drop off too much.

And now we come to Manchester United. It's obvious that just like two years ago, if we're going to get back into things, we need to put together a very solid run where we take close to maximum points--say 19 of a possible 21. That would not only vault us over the "pretenders" in front of us, but get us back on the heels of Arsenal and Chelsea, putting pressure on them and putting confidence into our squad. But of course, the problem is getting into form at that level. We would need everything to be clicking to do that, and so far it hasn't happened for us this season.

Let's look at it this way. Just for example, shoot for the 83 points it took us to win the title in 2003. Thus far we have 17 points from a possible 33--slightly more than half. To get to 83, we would need out 66 of a possible 81, or about 82% of the points. Thus far this season, Arsenal and Chelsea have taken 79% of their points, so we would need to perform as well for the rest of the reason as they have for this first part of it. I think its possible, but we need a few things to fall into place for us. Not getting full points against Portsmouth and failing to take advantage of momentum was a terrible letdown. Too many more of these and the hill we're climbing will get too steep to handle.



*All points made in above post are, of course, purely hypothetical.

 

Not a wind up but I simply don't see it happening. It could but there are fundamental problems with the club. Some of your fans say they need time to gel. You may gel but not in time for the kind of run you'll need. Asking both us and Chelsea to drop more points than you is asking a lot. Against similar opponents you guys are struggling.

In fact I don't think you'll be in the running for the title at the return game at Highbury. If any thing playing spoiler for Chelsea. I don't think you can beat Chelsea either. Draw with them at best. It happens with some clubs. We have trouble beating you guys at OT and in the league, you have trouble with Chelsea, even before Abromovich. Its one of those things.

'03 was more us having massive injuries to the defense. You had a good run in the 2nd half of the season but it was due to our injuries. If we get injuries again, then you have a chance to catch us but not Chelsea. They have a deep squad and can absorb injuries. You're looking at 2nd at best I think for this year if either us or Chelsea falter. Too many things has to happen, you need for two clubs to slip, you need to go on a massive run and you need to stay injury free in a squad that has aging players who are staying on the physio's table longer and longer (Keane, Giggs, Scholes).

I'm more worried about Chelsea right now.

 

damn...how long did that one take ya?

 

As a Fan... when its down to the last match where Arsenal have to lose all their matches afterward and we have to win all our matches afterward to win the title there is somewhere inside me that knows we will win. However, that's just my heart - my head gave up belief after the Pompey match. The defficit is not the problem... United is the problem... we only get up for the big games and we cannot get it done against the so called lesser teams... right now, we must face things, based on our results we are not the team we used to be - before we lost the occasional match or got the occasional draw or almost lost or drew a close match when our opponents played their lives out and played up to our level.

However, now we have become the team that is playing up to the level of those who are ahead of us. Arsenal and Chelsea have both looked like great teams and gotten good results since the start of last season. United however, have only played the brilliant games a few times in that period while they have been stellar on most matchdays.

I have no doubt that we will get back to our winning ways and on our day we are better than any team in England and Europe too, however we don't have right now what it takes to win a league away from two elite teams and that's what Chlesea and Arsenal are right now.

We can still win a Cup, FA perhaps even the Champions League as well - but the most important thing that can happen in this season is the team growing into a unit and finding form.

I have no doubt that we will look like the best team in the league at some point in this season but i fear by the time we find that form we will be 10 games or so too late.