Points For The Title

Discussion in 'Manchester United' started by prk166, Nov 1, 2004.

  1. prk166

    prk166 BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 8, 2000
    Med City
    No time to put together a fancy pants web tool for doing these calculations, at least not yet. Just to give us all an idea of what it will take with 21 games left this year to win it all.

    If ManU go 21-0-0, Arse/Chelski both need to go at least 18-0-3 or 17-3-1 to keep it tied at 80pts at the end of the season. Anything less by "them", like 16-3-2 and the title is Manchester United's again.

    If ManU go 20-1-1, they could go 17-2-2 or better and keep it out of reach. 17-1-3 would lead to a tie. Anything less like 17-0-4 or 16-3-2 lead to them falling short.

    The problem at hand isn't so much the likelihood of Arsenal or Chelsea going 17-0-04 or 16-3-2. That can happen. The problem is the likelihood of this squad going 21-0-0 or 20-1-0 to close out the season. And history show's that's need. IIRC no team has won the premiership title with 75 points. In fact, there have only been 3 times when the premiership's gone to a team finishing the season with less than 80 points. Given the current record for the boys, the most they can finish the season is with 80 points. Doing this would require perfection.
  2. prk166

    prk166 BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 8, 2000
    Med City
    Someone put crack in my coffee this morning.

    This is more like it since there are 27 games left, not 21. Still, it's going to tough to stay above that 80 point mark.


    W D L pts Current Total
    US 27 0 0 81 17 98
    24 2 1 74 26 100
    24 1 2 73 26 99
    24 0 3 72 26 98
    23 3 1 72 26 98
    23 2 2 71 26 97
    22 3 2 69 26 95

    US 26 1 0 79 17 96
    23 2 2 71 26 97
    23 1 3 70 26 96
    23 0 4 69 26 95
    22 2 3 68 26 94
    22 1 4 67 26 93
    22 0 5 66 26 92

    US 21 4 2 67 17 84
    21 3 3 66 26 92
    20 2 5 62 26 88
    19 4 4 61 26 87
    18 6 3 60 26 86
    19 2 6 59 26 85
    17 7 3 58 26 84
    17 6 4 57 26 83
    15 9 3 54 26 80
    15 7 5 52 26 78

    US 20 4 3 64 17 81
    23 7 2 76 26 102
    23 1 3 70 26 96
    16 8 3 56 26 82
    17 5 5 56 26 82
    16 7 4 55 26 81
    15 8 4 53 26 79
    14 10 3 52 26 78
    15 8 4 53 26 79
    14 8 5 50 26 76
  3. Achtung

    Achtung Member

    Jul 19, 2002
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks for the look ahead, prk. I'm a numbers guy, so I like seeing things in this "what-if" scenario, even if its damn near impossible to predict what will happen.*

    Here's the way I am currently looking at things. First of all, Arsenal won the league last year with 90 points--a total that looks unlikely (though certainly not impossible) for them to attain again this year. And I'm not just talking about the last two weeks of them looking slightly worse, I'm saying its unlikely they'll find that same combination of good form and lack of injuries. Moving on, Chelsea look quite a bit stronger now that they're scoring, albeit against relegation-threatened Blackburn and West Brom. If they really start to come together, people will see them as being more than capable of putting together a second-half run to distance themselves from the rest of the league. I haven't seen anything from them that really makes me feel they will drop off too much.

    And now we come to Manchester United. It's obvious that just like two years ago, if we're going to get back into things, we need to put together a very solid run where we take close to maximum points--say 19 of a possible 21. That would not only vault us over the "pretenders" in front of us, but get us back on the heels of Arsenal and Chelsea, putting pressure on them and putting confidence into our squad. But of course, the problem is getting into form at that level. We would need everything to be clicking to do that, and so far it hasn't happened for us this season.

    Let's look at it this way. Just for example, shoot for the 83 points it took us to win the title in 2003. Thus far we have 17 points from a possible 33--slightly more than half. To get to 83, we would need out 66 of a possible 81, or about 82% of the points. Thus far this season, Arsenal and Chelsea have taken 79% of their points, so we would need to perform as well for the rest of the reason as they have for this first part of it. I think its possible, but we need a few things to fall into place for us. Not getting full points against Portsmouth and failing to take advantage of momentum was a terrible letdown. Too many more of these and the hill we're climbing will get too steep to handle.

    *All points made in above post are, of course, purely hypothetical.
  4. AmericanGunner

    AmericanGunner New Member

    Sep 7, 2003
    Not a wind up but I simply don't see it happening. It could but there are fundamental problems with the club. Some of your fans say they need time to gel. You may gel but not in time for the kind of run you'll need. Asking both us and Chelsea to drop more points than you is asking a lot. Against similar opponents you guys are struggling.

    In fact I don't think you'll be in the running for the title at the return game at Highbury. If any thing playing spoiler for Chelsea. I don't think you can beat Chelsea either. Draw with them at best. It happens with some clubs. We have trouble beating you guys at OT and in the league, you have trouble with Chelsea, even before Abromovich. Its one of those things.

    '03 was more us having massive injuries to the defense. You had a good run in the 2nd half of the season but it was due to our injuries. If we get injuries again, then you have a chance to catch us but not Chelsea. They have a deep squad and can absorb injuries. You're looking at 2nd at best I think for this year if either us or Chelsea falter. Too many things has to happen, you need for two clubs to slip, you need to go on a massive run and you need to stay injury free in a squad that has aging players who are staying on the physio's table longer and longer (Keane, Giggs, Scholes).

    I'm more worried about Chelsea right now.
  5. tscboys

    tscboys Member+

    Sep 7, 2004
    damn...how long did that one take ya?
  6. johno

    johno Member+

    Jul 15, 2003
    in the wind
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    As a Fan... when its down to the last match where Arsenal have to lose all their matches afterward and we have to win all our matches afterward to win the title there is somewhere inside me that knows we will win. However, that's just my heart - my head gave up belief after the Pompey match. The defficit is not the problem... United is the problem... we only get up for the big games and we cannot get it done against the so called lesser teams... right now, we must face things, based on our results we are not the team we used to be - before we lost the occasional match or got the occasional draw or almost lost or drew a close match when our opponents played their lives out and played up to our level.

    However, now we have become the team that is playing up to the level of those who are ahead of us. Arsenal and Chelsea have both looked like great teams and gotten good results since the start of last season. United however, have only played the brilliant games a few times in that period while they have been stellar on most matchdays.

    I have no doubt that we will get back to our winning ways and on our day we are better than any team in England and Europe too, however we don't have right now what it takes to win a league away from two elite teams and that's what Chlesea and Arsenal are right now.

    We can still win a Cup, FA perhaps even the Champions League as well - but the most important thing that can happen in this season is the team growing into a unit and finding form.

    I have no doubt that we will look like the best team in the league at some point in this season but i fear by the time we find that form we will be 10 games or so too late.

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