#1 seed Done. Fini. Ain't gonna happen. With LA and San Jose's wins tonight, both have 45 points, five ahead of the Burn's 40. Even with the Burn winning against New England and DC, there is no combination of results in the two games remaining between LA and San Jose where the Burn can finish in front of both. #2 seed East champ #3 seed Not too likely, but can be done. First, the Burn need to win both their remaining games. Second, either LA needs to sweep San Jose or San Jose needs to sweep LA. This would leave Dallas with 46 points and the unlucky two-time loser between San Jose and LA with 45. An alternative is if LA and San Jose tie one game, and San Jose really slobberknocks LA while the Burn is really slobberknocking New England and DC. This would leave San Jose with 49 points, LA with 46 and Dallas with 46. The first tiebreaker, head-to-head, doesn't break the tie, since each team has won a game and drawn two this season. If all the slobberknocking is good enough to drop LA's +9 goal differential and raise Dallas' +1, then Dallas could possibly win the second tiebreaker. I wouldn't count on this, however. #4 seed All the following scenarios get Dallas there: Dallas wins both of their final two games, and it doesn't matter what anyone else does. Dallas wins one and draws one. Colorado loses or draws at least one of their final two games. Dallas wins one and loses one. Colorado loses at least one of their final two games. MetroStars lose or draw at least one of their final three games. Dallas draws both of their final two games. Colorado loses at least one of their final two games. MetroStars lose or draw at least one of their final three games. (Dallas owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against both teams.) Dallas draws one and loses one. Colorado either draws both their final two games or draws one and loses one. MetroStars lose at least one of their final three games. (Since both of Colorado's remaining games are with Kansas City, this would leave Kansas City with either 37 or 39 points.) Dallas loses both. Colorado draws one game and loses the other. MetroStars get maximum of four points in remaining three games. Chicago loses or draws one of its remaining two games.
So Colorado didn't play today after all. I thought they had the game in hand on us. Looks like we do control our own destiny for a home field series. Thanks for the rundown Jefe.
With all this bad news I thought I'd get everyone to cheer up a little and think of the fact that Shitcago might not even make the playoffs. Sure it doesn't help that the Revs are playing us next, but Chicago have a game against Columbus in Columbus next and then vice versa, just think with the way Columbus is playing (almost held San Jose to a draw in San Jose last night) and the way Chicagos playing (gave up a 1-0 lead late in the game AT HOME for a much needed win), we might get to laugh at the goons even harder by the end of the season. Just something to ponder while your miserable as of what happened last week.
With a playoff matchup vs. San Jose looming in their future, Dallas needs to forget about what's happened to them this year at Spartan Stadium (an 4-0 loss in July; a 3-1 loss in August) and realize that the Quakes have, for the most part, not been playing dominant soccer at home the last few months. Last night with any luck, Columbus could've very easily beaten the Quakes in San Jose, or at least left with a tie. And in July and August, other than in their victories over the Burn, San Jose hasn't been particularly impressive at home: 1-0 over LA, 1-0 over Chicago, and a 2-2 tie with DC. Should Dallas end up facing San Jose in the playoffs, they need to be positive and confident to have any chance. And that means putting past losses out of their thoughts, and instead focusing on what they've done right against the Quakes: their 1-0 victory at Spartan last year, their 2-1 win in the Cotton Bowl this July, etc, etc
they had luck to get as far as they did You mean, with MORE luck. Crew should have played the second half with 10 men, down 3-1, after Clark's takedown of Landon on a breakaway into the box right before the half. Clark got yellow instead of red. If it weren't for the lousy ref, Columbus probably wouldn't have been in the second half at all. DougO
With the MetroStars' loss last night, it got slightly easier for the Burn to clinch the #4 seed. Not a whole lot, but it pretty much reduced the race for #4 to a race between the Burn and Rapids. Here's the scenarios that clinch the #4 seed for the Burn: Dallas wins both of their final two games, and it doesn't matter what anyone else does. Dallas wins one and draws one. Colorado loses or draws at least one of their final two games. Dallas wins one and loses one. Colorado loses at least one of their final two games. Dallas draws both of their final two games. Colorado loses at least one of their final two games. (Dallas owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Rapids.) Dallas draws one and loses one. Colorado either draws both their final two games or draws one and loses one. (Since both of Colorado's remaining games are with Kansas City, this would leave Kansas City with either 37 or 39 points.) Dallas loses both. Colorado draws one game and loses the other. MetroStars get maximum of four points in remaining three games. Chicago loses or draws one of its remaining two games.
I think it's reasonably possible -- it probably has a 25% or so chance of happening, I'd guess. For the Burn to earn anything less than 6pts in its final 2 games will be a big disappointment, and I'd put the probability that Dallas finishes with 46 pts at 60%. For the Burn to earn the 3rd seed, they'll also need for either LA to sweep San Jose, or for San Jose to sweep LA. I'd put the odds of an LA sweep over SJ at 20%, and a SJ sweep over LA at 15%. So we see the probability of Dallas earning the 3rd seed is approximately: P(Burn sweep & LA sweep) + P (Burn sweep & SJ sweep) = (0.6)*(0.2) + (0.6)*(0.15) = 0.12 + 0.09 = 0.21 i.e., the Burn have about a 21% chance of ending up in the 3rd spot.
Well, we'd have to win bother our remaining and either San Jose or LA would have to get two wins off the other. Now, I can envision getting two victories off of New England and DC. The other part is a bit dicier. But LA's playing well right now, and San Jose has looked a bit shaky, so I could see LA winning both those games. I'm not counting on it, but it's not the most far-fetched scenario out there. If we take care of business at home on Saturday night, and LA can beat San Jose at the Rose Bowl, we've got a fighting chance.