What is the minimum we have to do mathmatically to clinch the supporters shield and the division title. What are the scenarios? I know it helped that the Revs beat Colorado. Now if LA and Dallas lose this weekend it would really be nice. I just figuerd out that winning the west will almost guarantee the supporters shield, i think. Discuss.
10 points in 4 games would win the Shield regardless of other results. Dallas could tie at 52 points, but the Quakes would win the head-to-head tiebreaker. Going by the pattern of this season, the most likely results to finish the season would be for the Quakes to win the 2 home games and lose the 2 road games. This would give them 48 points, which would almost surely be enough to finish ahead of LA. In this scenario LA could do no better than also 48 points, and the head-to-head would be even, but the second tiebreaker is goal difference where the Quakes hold a big advantage (+13 to +5). Whether this would be good enough for the Shield depends on what Dallas does. They would need three wins out of four to get 49 points, since they would lose a tiebreaker at 48. I'd say that if the Quakes can win both home games and manage at least one point out of two away games, they should win the Shield. That would absolutely put them ahead of LA, and Dallas would need 10 points in their last 4 to finish first. 2 or 3 points in the away matches and 2 home wins would force Dallas to go 4-0. Dallas has an easy schedule, but the Rapids in Denver will not be a walkover, and with the Open Cup they have 3 games in 3 cities in 5 days next week, so they could be quite tired when they play the MetroStars next Thursday. Any faltering at home would be bad for the Quakes, unless it is offset by away wins.
Has there been a 3 game win streak in MLS yet this season? Theoretically if you go with the avgs, they lose to DC, beat Crew, lose to LA and Beat LA......which all goes hand in hand with the Quakes inability to win on the road and also put a 3 game win streak together. A win in DC and losses by LA and Dallas would be a big leap in the right direction. Those two come-from-behind victories in SJ (Crew,KC) sure are looking important now aren't they.
This morning, RadioGal reminded me that no team had won three games in a row this season, but that Columbus and New England were both taking two game win streaks into today's game. Since they were playing each other, odds looked pretty good that one of them would be the first team to put together a three game win streak. In 24 previous games, New England had only one game end in a tie. Since the thread title has an [R] in it, I can go ahead and point out that the Crew-Revs match ended in a 0-0 tie. All the teams that won today did not win their previous game. Dallas won their last game, though, so a win tomorrow would give them two in a row. The previous Dallas at Colorado match ended in a 2-2 tie.
Magic number vs LA: 10* Magic number vs Dallas: 7 Magic number vs anyone else: 3 where magic number is points gained by Quakes or dropped by opponent. *Quakes finish ahead of LA with only 9 points if they split their home-and-home and LA can't make up 3 goals in GD. (Likely scenario) Bottom line: beat Columbus at home, split with LA and the Quakes are all but home free.
...unless Dallas wins out the rest of the way. That would give them 49 to the Quakes' 48. Quakes must win both remaining home matches and hold the differential over LA. Any point(s) we get out of the road match at LA would be gravy. Dallas must simply not get the maximum 9 points out of their last 3 games.
What I'm thinking after looking at the win-loss-tie records is that Dallas will tie the Metrostars and beat the Revs and DC. Don't go after me or anything if I'm wrong but that's what I think MIGHT happen...
Sure, that's what the "all but" part is for. Since no team has won three straight this year it's a pretty reasonable bet. Getting points in LA is pretty unlikely, so we'll probably need help from the surging Revs or United or the floundering Metros. Note that Dallas' next two games are at home so it probably come down to the last weekend with Dallas in DC and us hosting LA. Drama! Magic number vs. Dallas stands at 7.