I've seen a few posts here worrying that the Union's recent dip in form would result in them missing the playoffs. So I decided to start this thread to keep tabs on exactly how the playoff race was shaking out based on the numbers, not the highs and lows of post-match emotion. I also hope UdiHrant will post Road to Glory updates here. As of 8/8, the Union have 33 points (2nd in the east, 7th in a single table). They are pulling 1.5 points per match (1st in the east, 5th in single table). If everyone stays at their 2011 pace, the top 6 in the East will end like this: Union - 48 points Columbus - 47.23 Sporting - 42.51 DCU - 42.18 RBNY - 40 Houston - 38.98 If all our eastern conference opponents suddenly went on a tear and started playing at a Supporters Shield pace (the Galaxy pulling 1.92 ppg), they would finish like this: Columbus - 51.28 DCU - 48.12 Sporting - 47.28 RBNY - 45.36 Houston - 45.28 So, I'd argue that at this moment the playoff safe zone starts at 47 points. The Union are 14 points away from the safe zone with 10 matches to go. And if the Union suddenly went in the tank and started playing like the worst team in the league (Vancouver, .78 ppg), they'd finish at 40.8 pts. That'd be in front of RBNY's current pace, but about 1.5 points behind Sporting and DC for a guaranteed playoff spot. If the Union can avoid playing like the worst team in the league for the next 10 matches, they'll likely make the playoffs. If they can continue at their season pace, they'll win the east. PlayoffStatus.com has us at 35% to win the east (1 percentage point behind Columbus), 74% to finish top 3, and 88% to make the playoffs. http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/mlsstandings.html
Re: Playoff Picture Here we are. The graph doesn't lie. Current playoff opponents are now the Goats in the Western Conference. (I'm thinking of dropping off the Supporters Shield line from now on since that seems out of reach and it would compress the graph some...)
Re: Playoff Picture It's a good news bad news thing. The bad news is that the U have been downright underwhelming for the last month. The good news is that we banked points at the beginning of the season that's made up for the shortfall to date. But now that the pack has caught the U, it's time to put up or be buried. As far as the schedule goes, Sporting KC has probably had the easiest to date, only having played 8 games against the top tier (IMO, SKC and above in Points Per Game, which includes Crew, U, Rapids, Sounders, RSL, Dallas and LAG) and having played all 8 games against the "Craptastic 4" (Revs, Fire, Toronto, Vancouver, all of who are avg'ing under 1 ppg). However the U has had the second easiest, only playing the top teams 8 times and having played 6 of their 8 games already against the Craptastic 4. If the season to date means anything, then it looks like the Crew and the U will be fighting for the Eastern Conference crown. Yes the U have a game in hand, but it's a road game, as the U have played an even number of road and home games and the Crew have played one more home game then road game. Anyone expecting more than a point out of that is probably being foolish. So I think we can call it a virtual tie between the U and Crew right now, with two games against each other still to play. The Crew has the easier schedule remaining. Outside of the two games against the U they only have one other game against a top team, while the U has 4 others. With the U seemingly slipping currently, I think the Crew needs to be considered a decent sized favorite right now. Those games against each other will be HUGE. Both teams should see the playoffs tho IMO, unless the U really crumbles against the harsh late season schedule.
Re: Playoff Picture Since we're in an analytical mode here - consider this when you lookk at the rest of the schedule. The MLS is unique (in a bad way as far as I'm concerned) since we do not have a relegation system. What that means is that you can catch some late season 'zombie' teams who have absolutely nothing to play for and might even be fooling around and giving some time to bench warmers. Unfortunately for the U we may only have Toronto in that category this year but it's different then the EPL or anywhere else where you can catch a lowly team in a desperate strugle to 'stay up'.
Re: Playoff Picture And to be honest, this year I think 2nd in the East is a better playoff spot than 1st. The 1st place team is likely going to get a strong West wildcard opponent (someone in the Seattle/RSL/Colorado tier), while 2nd place gets the 3rd place East team. I'll take my chances with the Sporks (for argument's sake) against a trip out west. Plus, if that West team were to knock off the Crew (again, for argument's sake) and the Union were to beat SKC, the Eastern championship game is at PPL. I'm not saying the U shouldn't try to finish 1st, just that coming in 2nd isn't the worst thing in the world.
Re: Playoff Picture You figure there wont be any teams out there trying to "stick it to us" for the fun of it?
Re: Playoff Picture Yup - it all depends what we want imo. If we are not thinking of MLS cup - then winning the East is the aim. If we are thinking MLS cup - then i would be happy coming in 2nd for that "easier" run of games. Not that it would be easy - i'd guess that NY will improve and get in the top 3, and the Crew are a decent team too.
Re: Playoff Picture Nowak is clearly an evil genius.... sabotage the team just enough to make us finish in 2nd to give us an easier path to MLS cup... BRILLIANT!
Re: Playoff Picture 'splain this to me please. Why does 2nd place give us an easier path to the MLS final?
Re: Playoff Picture To be honest, where we end up with easy paths fully depends on where other teams fall...
Re: Playoff Picture First - you have to assume that the West Division will have supporters shield winner. That way, coming 1st in the East will get you the "best" wild card winner. If you look at the positions in the WC right now (this is assuming it all finishes "where is" - the WC games will be:- 1) Colorado vs 4) Chivas USA 2) Real Salt Lake vs 3) SKC. However, with RSL likely to "improve" it will probably be:- 1) Seattle vs 4) Chivas/DC/Houston 2) Colorado vs 3) SKC You would have to bet that the 1) seed will win no matter the opponent, as there is a huge difference in the quality there. Therefore, since the winners of the East would play that 1) seed (or 2 seed if the 4 seed get the shock result - it is unlikely both 3 and 4 would win) - then you are looking at the East winners playing one of:- RSL Dallas Colorado Seattle which is a far more difficult game than one of SKC/Columbus/RBNY (going on current form). It also adds a west coast flight into the mix, which is horrid (and not nice for the rest of playoffs if you can win that).
Re: Playoff Picture The way I understand it, the 2 and 3 seeds in each conference playoff in a home-and-home conference semi-final. The 1 seeds each play the winner of the 1st round matchups, which are played between the teams with the highest points not to finish in the top 3 in each conference. The supporter's shield winner (likely to be the West winner) would face the lowest seeded wildcard winner, with the other 1 seed facing the higher seeded wildcard winner. I pulled this off the playoff rankings thread in General. Rankings are based on PPG: Look at the 1 and 2 seeds in the East (Philly/Columbus) and assume chalk winners in round 1 (Seattle/Colorado). In round 2, would you rather face Seattle as the 1 seed or Sporting as the 2 seed? I'd personally rather play Sporting in a two-legged playoff and risk playing at Columbus for the conference final, rather then play a superior opponent (to SKC that is, not necessarily to us) plus have to travel cross-country for one of the legs. The flip side is the 1 seed is guaranteed the conference final at home if they make it there, but if you believe that Seattle and Colorado would beat Columbus (which I do), then Philly gets that one game final at home anyway. ETA: Bluetooner beat me to it
Gah. I just realized my first post was done on the assumption of a 32 game season rather than a 34 game season. I'll repost sometime later, but I'd imagine the conclusions will be somewhat similar. I also would like to do a strength of schedule comparison based on metsox's post. CORRECTED VERSION As of 8/8, the Union have 33 points (2nd in the east, 7th in a single table). They are pulling 1.5 points per match (1st in the east, 5th in single table). If everyone stays at their general 2011 pace, the top 6 in the East will end like this: Union - 51 points Columbus - 50.28 Sporting - 44.3 DCU - 43.64 RBNY - 42.5 Houston - 41.42 If all our eastern conference opponents suddenly went on a tear and started playing at a Supporters Shield pace (the Galaxy pulling 1.92 ppg), they would finish like this: Columbus - 55.12 DCU - 51.96 Sporting - 51.12 RBNY - 49.2 Houston - 49.12 So, I'd argue that at this moment the playoff safe zone starts at 52 points. That number will come down as a) The U banks points and b) their opponents drop points, as they can't all play at a SS pace. Last year 51 points was enough to win the east, and my guess is that the 2 added games will make 54-55 points the benchmark for winning it this year. There's definitely more sophisticated math that can be done here but I'm not the person to do it. So let's just say that right now the Union are 19 points away from the safe zone with 12 matches to go. And if the Union suddenly went in the tank and started playing like the worst team in the league (Vancouver, .78 ppg), they'd finish at 42.36 pts. That'd be about 1.5 points behind Sporting and DC for a guaranteed playoff spot. If the Union can avoid playing like the worst team in the league for the next 12 matches, they'll likely make the playoffs. If they can continue at their season pace, they'll win the east.
Re: Playoff Picture Inspired by the metrosox post above, I took a look athome/road form. I'll update these as we go along. The best home and road teams, by PPG, are: Code: ****HOME PPG**** 1 GALAXY 2.17 2 FCD 2.08 3 RSL 2.08 4 CREW 2 5 SOUNDERS 1.91 6 UNION 1.82 7 SPORTING 1.78 8 DYNAMO 1.75 9 NYRB 1.73 10 TIMBERS 1.67 11 RAPIDS 1.62 12 CHIVAS 1.33 13 WHITECAPS 1.27 14 EARTHQUAKES 1.23 15 NE REVS 1.18 16 TFC 1.17 17 DC UNITED 1.09 18 FIRE 1 ****ROAD PPG**** 1 GALAXY 1.69 2 SOUNDERS 1.54 3 DCU 1.5 4 FCD 1.36 5 RAPIDS 1.33 6 UNION 1.18 7 CHIVAS 1.18 8 RSL 1.13 9 CREW 1 10 SPORTING 1 11 SJ QUAKES 0.9 12 NYRB 0.85 13 FIRE 0.75 14 NE REVS 0.67 15 DYNAMO 0.64 16 TIMBERS 0.6 17 TFC 0.46 18 WHITECAPS 0.33 I used the home/road form numbers to generate new pace predictions: 1) LA Galaxy (SS, W1): 65.6 2) Seattle (W2): 58.61 3) FC Dallas (W3): 58.49 4) Real Salt Lake (WC1): 54.43 5&6) Columbus Crew and Philadelphia Union (E1&2): 51 7) Colorado Rapids (WC2): 50.13 8) Sporting KC (E3): 47.22 9) DC United (WC3): 44.05 10) NYRB (WC4): 43.75 ------- 11) Chivas USA: 42.76 12) Houston: 40.57 I think this is probably how things are going to shake out, though Salt Lake is the tricky one, as they haven't played very many road games yet and I imagine their road record will improve. I also don't know if DCU is going to continue its unusual road form (1.5 ppg on the road as opposed to 1.09 at home) Next I decided to have a look at strength of schedule, including home/road form, and turns out metsox is right: The U have one of the more difficult schedules in the league (3rd hardest, in fact). This is largely because they have RSL, Columbus, Seattle, RBNY and SKC on the road, 5 of the top 7 toughest places to play this season. Columbus, DCU, Sporting and RBNY are all among the most fortunate for strength of schedule. So it is important for the Union to take at least 6-7 points from those big 5 road games. Here's a list of strength of schedule, ranked by opponents' PPG. The list goes from toughest schedule to easiest. Code: 1 SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES 1.45 2 VANCOUVER WHITECAPS 1.41 3 HOUSTON DYNAMO 1.37 3 PHILADELPHIA UNION 1.37 5 REAL SALT LAKE 1.35 5 LA GALAXY 1.35 7 CHIVAS USA 1.34 8 CHICAGO FIRE 1.28 8 SEATTLE SOUNDERS 1.28 10 COLORADO RAPIDS 1.27 10 NEW ENGLAND REVS 1.27 10 PORTLAND TIMBERS 1.27 13 COLUMBUS CREW 1.23 13 DC UNITED 1.23 15 TORONTO FC 1.22 16 SPORTING KC 1.2 17 FC DALLAS 1.19 17 NY RED BULLS 1.19 Again, I think this will change once a) RSL's road numbers beef up, and b) when DCU fails to keep up its road form. I also wouldn't be surprised if Dallas dropped some points (with CCL fixtures), and Chivas & Houston struggle. This will impact everybody's scores who has them on the schedule. For example, I think by the time Columbus plays RSL, RSL will have way more than 1.13 ppag.
Re: Playoff Picture What it all comes down to is that while it is true that the Union have a tough schedule, they have their destiny in their own hands. Magic number is 19.
Re: Playoff Picture Columbus' win and the Union's tie means that Columbus jumps up in the pace prediction (including home field advantage) to 52.42 points. The Union are in 2nd in the east with a pace prediction of 49.84 points. Sporting and DC follow with 47.22 and 46.75 points, respectively. Code: LA GALAXY 65.6 FC DALLAS 57.97 SOUNDERS 57.32 CREW 52.42 RAPIDS 52.31 SALT LAKE 52.31 UNION 49.84 SPORTING 47.22 DCU 46.75 RED BULL 42.72 CHIVAS 42.5 DYNAMO 40.57 TIMBERS 38.53 QUAKES 34.73 NE REVS 30.55 TORONTO 30.08 FIRE 30.08 WHITECAPS 26.87 With DC winning and Sporting staying idle this weekend, the safe zone stays at 52 points. The Union are 18 points out with 11 games remaining. The Union's strength of schedule stays pretty much the same, with opponents averaging 1.36 ppg from here on out. Columbus and DC's numbers both jump a bit, with DCU going up to 1.29 and Columbus to 1.28. Code: SJ QUAKES 1.46 WHITECAPS 1.44 DYNAMO 1.37 RSL 1.37 UNION 1.36 LA GALAXY 1.35 CHIVAS 1.29 SOUNDERS 1.29 DC UNITED 1.29 CREW 1.28 TIMBERS 1.27 RAPIDS 1.27 TORONTO 1.25 CHICAGO 1.25 RED BULL 1.24 SPORTING 1.21 NE REVS 1.2 FC DALLAS 1.11 Stating the obvious, the next match is a huge one. If they want to win the conference, 1 point is a must and a win would put the U back in the driver's seat. Magic number is now 18.
Re: Playoff Picture Despite the bad news this weekend, the Union actually moved a point closer to the safe zone, which dropped down to 51 points after DCU's loss.* They currently sit 17 points off the safe zone with 10 matches left to go. Any combination of Philly wins and losses from DC, KC, and Houston will drop that number more. The current pace predictions still have the Union making the playoffs, though they've slipped behind Sporting, who bump ahead because of their extremely high home ppg numbers. Code: [B]TEAM[/B]---------[B]PACE[/B]----- GALAXY---------66.69 SOUNDERS-----59.1 FC DALLAS-----55.45 CREW-----------53.62 RAPIDS---------51.56 SPORTING------51 SALT LAKE------50.61 UNION----------48.17 DYNAMO--------44.12 DC UNITED-----43.92 RED BULL-------42.9 CHIVAS---------42.28 TIMBERS--------38.58 QUAKES---------34.73 FIRE-------------32.91 NE REVS--------30.08 TFC--------------29.52 WHITECAPS----26.49 With games vs Dallas and at Columbus behind them, Philly's strength of schedule eases a bit, down to a three way tie for tenth hardest league wide (along with DCU). Columbus and Houston all have tougher schedules the rest of the way. Only KC has an easier ride, what with all their home matches. Code: [B]TEAM[/B]------[B]OPPONENTS' PPG[/B] DYNAMO-----1.55 GALAXY------1.45 QUAKES------1.41 WHITECAPS-1.38 NE REVS-----1.35 FIRE----------1.33 RSL-----------1.32 CREW--------1.29 RAPIDS------1.29 UNITED------1.28 UNION-------1.28 TFC-----------1.28 TIMBERS-----1.26 CHIVAS-------1.25 SPORTING----1.23 RED BULL-----1.21 SOUNDERS---1.13 DALLAS-------1.09 *Reminder: I'm calculating the "safe zone" based on the number of points a team would finish the season with if they played the rest of the season at the same level as the Supporters' Shield leaders (LAG with 1.96 ppg). The idea is that while teams like San Jose may not yet be mathematically eliminated, it's practically impossible to get 3ppg from here to the end of the season).
Re: Playoff Picture Not coming out of the east would be considered a failure for me. It's better than no playoffs I suppose, but I think the U would have a very good shot at a CCL berth and an MLS Cup appearance coming out of the east.
Re: Playoff Picture [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE"]Jim Mora Playoffs! - YouTube[/ame]
Re: Playoff Picture If I'm interpereting the standings correctly, and if the season ended today, we'd play...RSL!! Oh goody goody!
Re: Playoff Picture Well, if the season ended today it would be extraordinarily unfair, since teams haven't played the same amount of matches. One of the reasons I made this thread is to pay less attention to the standings *today* and pay more attention to the PPG and projected pace. Right now Sporting projects to finish ahead of the Union when you factor in home field advantage, but I'd argue that Sporting's home numbers are inflated because they've played a bunch of games at home vs subpar opponents. Since Livestrong opened, they've played the following games at home: Chicago (0-0 draw) San Jose (1-0 win) Vancouver (2-1 win) Colorado (1-1 draw) Chivas (1-1 draw) Toronto (4-2 win) New England (1-1 draw) RSL (2-0 win) Seattle (1-2 loss) Portland (3-1 win) DCU (1-0 win) So in other words, since opening the park they've beaten the 6th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th and 18th best teams in the league. They tied the 4th, 11th, and 16th best, and lost to the only top 5 team they played. For the rest of the season Sporting has to play LA, Dallas, Columbus, Philly, Redbull and Houston at home. If you're a betting man, I'd wager that their home form (2+ppg) is going to take a downturn.