Playoff Nuts and Bolts

Discussion in 'D.C. United' started by shawn12011, Sep 1, 2002.

  1. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Playoff Table

    Team GP W L T Pts

    SJ 25 13 9 3 42
    CLB 25 10 10 5 35
    LA 25 13 9 3 42
    DAL 24 11 6 7 40
    COL 25 11 11 3 36
    KC 26 9 9 8 35
    CHI 25 10 11 4 34
    MET 24 10 12 2 32
    ======================================
    NE 25 9 14 2 29
    DC 24 7 12 5 26



    Metro's Schedule
    Thursday, September 5th MetroStars at Dallas
    Thursday, September 12th D.C. United at MetroStars
    Saturday, September 14th MetroStars at D.C. United
    Saturday, September 21st MetroStars at New England

    Rev's Schedule
    Saturday, September 7th D.C. United at New England
    Saturday, September 14th New England at Dallas
    Saturday, September 21st MetroStars at New England

    United Schedule
    Saturday, September 7th D.C. United at New England
    Thursday, September 12th D.C. United at MetroStars
    Saturday, September 14th MetroStars at D.C. United
    Thursday, September 19th Dallas at D.C. United


    DC Max points 38
    NE Max Points 38
    NY/NJ Max Points 44

    The first thing I find interesting is that DC,NE, NY/NJ and Dallas are all tied to each other here. With everyone playing each other their is not as much scoreboard watching. Wins are what couns in this race. Bottom line is we are looking for NY/NJ vs NE tie in their match and for Dallas to beat both of them but not us.
     
  2. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia
    I just woke up thinking about this! Thanks for starting the thread.

    United doesn't have to run the table. But it would make it much easier. That loss to the metros last week sure made things more complicated.

    1) We have to win @ NE next week. That would tie us with the Revs, with both of us three points behind the metros who most likely will continue their downward swoon @ Dallas. If we beat NE then we don't have to win out. See below.

    For NE, they really HAVE to beat us. They have one fewer game than the metros or us and with the next game @ Dallas they MUST get points form us or they might be eliminated before they play the metros on the last day.

    If we tie NE then we probably have to win out and again we are dependent on other things happening.

    If we lose to NE it gets very complicated; it's possible we make the playoffs but we are dependent on a combination of several unlikely things- and I'm talking more unlikely then us winning two road games. Oi.

    2) Then comes the pivotal home and away series vs the metros while NE most likely loses @ Dallas on the same weekend. We can survive with four points from the two games. Four points would tie us with the metros and if NE loses they would be four points behind both teams and thus eliminated. (I'm counting on a United win vs NE the week before for this scenerio.) Four points would also clinch the series for us vs. the metros which is important not because of that lame Atlantic Cup but because it's the first tiebreaker if we are tied with them at the end of the season.

    Six points from the two games would put us three points ahead of the metros with one game to play and eliminates the metros from being able to edge us out for the playoffs because again we win the tiebreaker.

    Three points (or two ties for two points) from the two metros games puts the metros three points ahead with a game to go. Obviously then we need to win the last game and the metros to lose to have a chance, and then we have to win the head-to-head tiebreaker with the metros to slip into the playoffs. Since if we split these two metros games and the tiebreaker then becomes goal differential between the two teams, we have to be aware of that. Right now we lead in GD with the metros at +1.

    3) So the final game is important especially if we get four points from the metros games. On the last day the metros are @ probably already eliminated NE while we host Dallas. We are lucky to play Dallas at home but on the other hand Dallas will be in a dogfight to get home field advantage in the playoffs so they will have incentive.


    Regardless of what I wrote above, beating NE next week is so important.....
     
  3. Th4119

    Th4119 Member

    Jul 26, 2001
    Annandale, VA
    I think I posted something along these lines last night in the Post Match Thread. Mods can feel free to move or copy that post into this thread, but I believe that it basically says the same thing.

    For the first time in years, we control our own destiny.
     
  4. Cweedchop

    Cweedchop Member+

    Mar 6, 2000
    Ellicott City, Md
    This is the key game to the season..

    It's pretty simple to me.. We either win that game or kiss the playoffs goodbye..

    It being a road game certainly doesn't strenghten our cause but this will be only the 2nd road game this season (San Jose the 1st) that we should have our full squad available (except Quaranta - though a little birdie told me that it is not inconceivable that he could be available)..

    Based on our last games result the lineup should look the same except for one critical factor - Steve Ralston..

    There is a couple of different options here..

    1) Put Reyes on Ralston like the last time we played them at RFK.. Ralston was damn near invisible that match..

    2) If this does happen, look for ITT to take a seat and Prideaux will come into the right back slot and Reyes will join Williams in midfield but will concentrate solely on Ralston..

    The bottom line here is 3 points from this match and we are stuck in the middle of a classic struggle to get that last playoff spot..
     
  5. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia

    That makes sense to me. In addition I could see ITT starting over Williams as the center of the field is a Revs weak point and ITT could add more offense from the d-mid than ABMOD. If we get a lead then I could see Williams subbing in either for ITT or an offensive player, basically doing what Prideaux did vs SJ.
     
  6. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia

    Just imagine if we had won vs the metros last week. We'd be tied with them now. Christ I hate how Hudson just punted that game...
     
  7. Th4119

    Th4119 Member

    Jul 26, 2001
    Annandale, VA
    DC United vs. New England Revolution this Saturday will be the MLS game of the year. Whoever loses is all but out of the playoffs, and if they tie they are almost in as much trouble.

    Both teams will fight, scrap, and claw their way for any result possible.

    Good time for our first road win, isn't it?
     
  8. nick

    nick Member+

    Nov 23, 1998
    Potomac Falls, Va
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I had not realized until this thread how favorable the last four games are for United to make the playoffs. The key is clearly New England.

    I don't really want to look downstream but what a turn of events if United makes the 8th playoff spot and then faces San Jose in the first round. Wow....
     
  9. DigitalTron

    DigitalTron New Member

    Apr 4, 2001
    Arlington, VA
    HalaMadrid's Playoffs Race Breakdown

    Very well done analysis guys. HalaMadrid also has a nice tread about the playoff race (with very cool graphics and an easy to read format) over at the MLS: News & Analysis forum. Here's a link. The first post is as of August 29, so there have been results since then, but it lists all of the games remaining in order for each team, the exact order of all tiebreakers, etc.

    https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=10598

    -Tron
     
  10. 1MADDOG

    1MADDOG New Member

    Aug 15, 2000
    DC
    Truthfully, Im expecting to lose against New England, tie Metro Stars and win the remainder of our matches (total of 7 points). Metro stars only have one home game left and that is against us. I dont think they can beat us, tie mabey but not win.

    New England has gelled nicely and have more home games then we do. They have only gotten stronger.

    The metro stars have one home game left and a weak defense. They basically suck right now.

    If we beat New England this weekend, then Im pretty sure were going to qualify.
     
  11. DigitalTron

    DigitalTron New Member

    Apr 4, 2001
    Arlington, VA
  12. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here is another interesting twist:
    GP W T L PTS Schedule
    Columbus (E) 25 10 5 10 35 @SJ, @CHI, vCHI
    Chicago 25 10 4 11 34 vLA, vCLB, @CLB
    Metrostars 24 10 2 12 32 @DAL, vDC, DC, @NE
    New England 25 9 2 14 29 vDC, @DAL, vMET
    DC United 24 7 5 12 26 @NE, @MET, vMET, vDAL


    - Scenario: Columbus loses at San Jose and Chicago loses to LA. Then they both draw their matches against each other = Columbus and Chicago finish with 37 and 36 points respectively.

    Next Metrostars lose at Dallas and both matches to United. New England loses to both United and Dallas. Metros and New England tie each other = Metrostars and New England finish with 33 and 30 points respectively.

    If United then wins it remaining matches it would finish with the Max 38 points. That would result in United winning the East and gaining the #2 seed. Bit of a stretch but based on the matchups not impossible. Think about it.......... :confused:
     
  13. GUTuna

    GUTuna Member

    Mar 23, 2000
    Washington, DC USA
    Well if we do squeak into the 8 spot, one way or another, it looks as though we'd be playing either LA or SJ in the first round.

    This is good news for all of us out on the West Coast. We can meet up again and give them vital road support.

    I'm so dissapointed that I was back east for the SJ game, ya'll sounded great.
     
  14. DigitalTron

    DigitalTron New Member

    Apr 4, 2001
    Arlington, VA
    Heh, yeah, great minds think alike. I posted the same thing (slightly less complicated) earlier today as well. Basicly if we win out that means the Metros can only achieve 38 points, and we'd win the tiebreakers against them regardless of whether they beat New England and Dallas. So we don't need to worry about them at all.

    If we beat New England, the best they can do is 35 points, so we don't need to worry about what they do either. The only ones we need to worry about are Columbus and Chicago. The scenario we need is essentially only these three things:
    1) United wins out
    2) Chicago beats Columbus 1 time
    3) Chicago and Columbus tie in the other game

    That's it, if those 3 things happen we win the East and have the 2nd playoff spot. Of course, numbers 1 and 3 are rather unlikely.

    -Tron
     
  15. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Now of course as a Red Sox fan I have to believe that it won't happen but hey as Tom Cruise said, "Sometimes you've just gotta say, what the F&*#."
     
  16. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia
    Geez these scenarios are wacky. We haven't even mentioned the possibility still of catching KC, unlikely but possible. They have only two games left- a home and home vs Colorado and this Colorado team is so hot and cold it's possible that the Rapids get three or four points from those games. So then if we win out, we are ahead of KC also. Weird.

    As an aside the first thing that struck me about the standings today was the fact that Colorado is only three points out of the best league record. Talk about parity.
     
  17. slacker

    slacker Member

    Nov 20, 2001
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The East is least

    This outcome would be hilarious. The East would truly suck in comparison to the West, as the champion DC United would be below 500!! (Best we can do is 11-12-5 - 38 pts)

    But look at the current East Division leader - Columbus - only a 500 record (10-10-5).
     
  18. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It would be wacky but think about how dangerous United could be with homefield advantage throught the playoffs. Since the 1 and 2 seeds cannot meet until MLS Cup in New England the East and West champs would have that in their favor.
     
  19. DigitalTron

    DigitalTron New Member

    Apr 4, 2001
    Arlington, VA
    Delusions of Grandeur

    Spot on!

    If United were to pull a miracle out of it's hat and win the East, there would be a very real chance of winning the MLS Cup. Think about it, we have one of the best home records in MLS. If we managed to win the east, it would be even better. We'd finally be healthy (including Santino), have gelled, and be on a major roll.

    With home field advantage I think we'd match up well with most teams. Columbus, Dallas and Los Angeles still might give us problems. The Crew and Burn seem to have our number, and LA has a lot of size which could expose us in the air. But, we'd likely only have to play one of those teams. If we met San Jose on a neutral field, I like our chances. ;)

    It's pretty much a pipe-dream, but if it did happen, wow.

    -Tron
     
  20. ursula

    ursula Member

    Feb 21, 1999
    Republic of Cascadia
    Re: Delusions of Grandeur

    I'd say that if we make the playoffs at all we will be on a major roll and that home field advantage or nno, we'd be quite dangerous to anyone.
     
  21. shawn12011

    shawn12011 Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Reisterstown, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  22. eldiablito

    eldiablito New Member

    Jun 8, 2000
    in Sagy's shadow
    Keep in mind that every time the MLS Cup has been played in Foxboro, it's DCU beating LA.

    Hey, all these wacky scenarios, it could happen.
     
  23. Victory

    Victory Member

    Sep 20, 2000
    RFK LOT 8
    Here is the latest bracket for your pleasure

    Team Points Head 2 GD Remaining Games
    ------------------(1st) (2nd)
    -------------------tiebreackers

    NY 35 Points 1-1-x -1 DC DC NE
    CL 35 Points 0-3-1 +1 SJ CH CH
    KC 35 Points 1-2-1 -7 CO CO
    CH 34 Points 1-1-2 +7 LA CL CL
    NE 29 Points 1-2-x -7 DC DL NY
    DC 26 Points -7 NE NY NY DL
    Best senerio is that NE loses out and Chicago also loses out That means that DC would be in with 9 points.

    Also keep in mind that the most point DCU can get is 38 so once a team gets either 38 (depending on tiebreakers) or 39 points we can not move ahead of them.
     
  24. revelation

    revelation Member+

    Dec 17, 1998
    FC St. Pauli
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    The way I see it, DC United needs to do what no other team has done this year - win five games in a row! If they don't get 12 points from these last 4 games, there is NO realistic chance of making the playoffs! And even if the team finishes on 38 points, they need some help...
     
  25. MarioKempes

    MarioKempes Member+

    Real Madrid, DC United
    Aug 3, 2000
    Raleigh, NC
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Playoff Situation

    Wide open my friends, wide open.
    6 teams, 4 slots.

    NY Donkeys: 3 games left, 35 pts, max points=44
    Colum Cows: 3 games left, 35 pts, max points=44
    Chi Freaks: 3 games left, 34 pts, max points=43
    KC Wizzz: 2 games left, 35 pts, max points=41
    NE Constipation:3 games left, 29 pts, max points=38
    DCU: 4 games left, 26 pts, max points=38

    Donkeys: DCU, DCU, @NE
    Cows: @SJ, Freaks, freaks
    Freaks: LA, @Cows, Cows
    Wizz: Colorado, Colorado
    DCU: @NE, @Donkeys, Donkeys, Dallas
    NE: DCU, Dallas, Donkeys

    If DCU wins its next 3 games, then we would be ahead of both New England and the MetroMutts. Then we would need to do just as well against Dallas as the MetroDonkeys do @NE.
     

Share This Page