Since the start of the modern world cup era, the number of European teams that have progressed out of the group stage has been more or less distributed in this way: 1998 - France (Europe): 10/15 Scotland, Austria, Spain, Bulgaria and Belgium failed to make it out of the groups. 2002 - South Korea - Japan (Not Europe): 9/15 France, Slovenia, Portugal, Poland, Croatia, Russia failed to make it out of the groups. 2006 - Germany (Europe): 10/14 Poland, Serbia and Montenegro, Czech Republic and Croatia failed to make it out of the groups. 2010 - South Africa (Not Europe): 6/13 France, Greece, Slovenia, Serbia, Denmark, Italy and Switzerland failed to make it out of the groups. 2014 - Brazil (Not Europe): 6/13 Croatia, Spain, Italy, England, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal and Russia failed to make it out of the groups. 2018 - Russia (Europe): 10/14 Iceland, Serbia, Germany and Poland failed to make it out of the groups. 2018 - Qatar (Not Europe): ??/13 Let's say hypothetically you can only choose up to 7 or 8 European teams to advance out of the groups in this non-European World Cup, which teams would you choose? Which teams do you think are going to fail?
If I have a limit of 8 then NED, ENG, DEN, FRA, GER, ESP, BEL, POR will advance. But being honest I'm also expecting Croatia and Serbia/Switzerland to advance.
It's just a little exercise for fun, I mean on paper you can put all the Europeans as favorites to advance (Well only one of Serbia/Switzerland, but you get the point), however things never go as planned. Pretty sure you could pinpoint Spain, Portugal and at least one of Italy/England advancing in 2014 yet they failed. Also I forgot to put my picks: Netherlands England Denmark Spain Germany Croatia Serbia Portugal I'm expecting the Champions Curse to fall upon France, and I don't why, but I have a hunch that Belgium is going to disappoint.
Yeah, I could see Belgium disappointing, but I think they caught a break by playing Croatia last. So, even if they screw up one of the games against Morocco or Canada, they'd probably advance with a draw to Croatia. Croatia would likely also be happy with the draw; they might even rest some of their older players if they are safe - not much benefit to finishing first or second in that group. The worst France can do is six points. Still possible to get eliminated with 6 points - in fact, we are probably due for that happening by now. Don't think its ever happened (came close in 2010 with Chile, Spain and Swiss).
Belgium not only caught a break by playing Croatia last but also by playing Canada first. Canada haven't been at the World Cup in modern times and who knows how the players will handle the situation to be on the limelight. Statistically, teams who enter the World Cup after a 20 year or longer haitus have an abysmal record in their opening games. So, there's that. I stand by what I said before. There is now way both France and Belgium will advance. One of them will shit the bed, guaranteed. Every World Cup is producing at least one big European casualty. I wouldn't bet on this odd trend to get broken in Qatar.
Finaly someone else who doubts Belgium. You have a good hunch with France and Belgium. I think France might escape from the winners' curse as long Deshamps picks the right squad but Belgium are full steam heading towards disaster as far as I'm concerned. They might just get by with their nonchalant play in the Nations League but this will obviously not work at the World Cup.
Sure, one big European casualty but that doesn't mean France and/or Belgium. Mathematically speaking, the casualty is more likely to come from group E since it contains 2 big European countries. Or Group H because there seems to be a smaller gap in talent between the Euro team and the rest.
Statistically Belgium and France are the heavyweights at most at risk of getting grouped. Make of that whatever you want. Doesn't mean of course that it can't occur to another powerhouse.
Some folks predict Portugal to be the powerhouse that gets grouped. Probably because of Santos and Portugal having struggled in group play in recent major tournaments. Rafael Leao is hitting new heights. And they got a strong squad with many options anyway. I'm fairly certain that Portugal will advance.
Yeah but there’s too much quality on the team right now I don’t see them not getting first comfortably
I think on paper Portugal and Uruguay are both just too strong for Ghana and SK. I would also have to say on Paper Portugal is definitely above Uruguay. The difference isn't huge but definitely favors Portugal, but Alonso has Uruguay playing a better brand of football over Portugal and Santos. The main hope several us are clinging too is that after falling into the playoffs our level of play has slightly improved overall. Just hard to imagine Santos won't fall back into his old ways and we revert back to playing 2 levels below our quality.
The options are the same (or worse) as when they barely qualified. Half their squad is in poor form or injured atm . I am not predicting them not to advance but compared to France's chances v Australia and Tunisia....come on....
I think you may be confusing Portugal with another team. I seriously mean that, you may have officially lost touch with reality.
As long as Brazil don't slip up v Serbia and finish 2nd in their group. In that case it would be a Round of 16 encounter.
Yeah, same with us . Uruguay can top our group if we slip up and aren’t on our game. it will be Portugal and Uruguay, I’m confident Portugal will come first but if not Uruguay will,
Portugal - Brazil final is a decent possibilty. I thought about that final as well. But so did I about Brazil - Spain or Brazil - Germany..... But that's all under the condition Brazil finish 1st which isn't a given this time because Serbia can beat anyone on their day.
If I had to limit it to 8 teams — Netherlands — England — Poland — France — Spain — Germany — Croatia — Portugal Yeah, I'm listing Poland. Sonething nobody did. It's just the group in which they are in. I think it's a dream draw for Poland. If they don't get out of their group this time they will never do. I think Serbia and probably Denmark will advance as well. But there things look a little bit trickier to me.