You are arguing hypothetical situations (counterfactual scenarios) with assumptions and not with any objective facts. Regarding 1958, the objective fact is that Brazil were struggling without Pele and Garrincha. When they were brought in, there was immediate impact. Pele assisted against Russia, and him and Garrincha had a spell in that game that is known as the greatest 3 minutes in football (both Pele and Garrincha hitting the post in this time). Brazil needed some Pele magic to defeat Wales' parked bus in the quarter final. Without Pele's hat-trick, Brazil-France scoreline in the semi-final would be 2-2. In the final, when Brazil went down, Pele started taking over possession, smashed a pile driver from the midfield rattling the post, and assisted the first goal; Garrincha then literally served Vava on a plate for the second. Thereafter, Pele scored the best goal ever scored in a World Cup final (superseded in 1970). So, the objective facts suggest that Pele and Garrincha were vital to Brazil winning 1958. None of the data suggest Brazil would win without them (you only have names on paper). Similarly, with respect to 1970, the objective facts show that Brazil lost in 1966 and 1974 without Pele (players from these tournaments overlapped with the 1970 World Cup; also, the 1974 defence was better because they had one of the best goalkeepers [Leao], centre backs [Luis Pereira], and left and right backs in Brazil’s history; only Carlos Alberto was better than his counterpart in 1974; and Piazza [centre back] played in the 1970 team as well). It is almost unthinkable that the absence of leadership from a guy who had the greatest influence in football, whose influence caused a ceasefire in the Nigerian war a few months earlier (something diplomats the world over failed to achieve), would not matter to a team that heavily depended on him. Again, you have only names on paper, no objective data or context to support your argument of a hypothetical scenario). And thank goodness Pele played in 1970; without that magical display (first time seen in colour) and that story (winning the World Cup 3 times and making it their own), neither the World Cup nor the sport of football would be what it is today.
I think one should consider "decisive matches" and "not decisive matches" to get a clear picture. In WCs, the good teams usually qualify for the knock-out stages after only two games, and players may not be that motivated in a last group stage match. To give that game the same "weight" as a semi-final or final is a bit misleading of course, but that's the way we have to do it. At least, until someone finds another method. When it come to the Diego-Lio discussion, we must never forget the incredible pressure Messi has been living under. Diego was "free" back in the 80s: no one was comparing him to Argentinian players of the past or claiming that if he didn't win three World Cups he could never compare to Pelé etc etc. The entire GOAT discussion didn't exist back then and players could just think of their next game rather than how they'd go down in history.
Poet I was just going to post this It puts into context some things i wasn't previously aware of(ie reasons for the decline)and more importantly completely destroys the idea he didn't vary his FK technique He changed it all the back in 2011 Smh
How does it destroy the idea that he didn't adapt his technique once it began failing him? I know the video claims he used varying techniques, and he did, but he overwhelmingly used his knuckleball technique, especially in his unsuccesful FK period around the time he joined Juve. Go watch the video of his 100 freekick attempts I posted earlier. It is clear as day the vast majority of attempts were his trademark knuckleball attempts. If you want to deny what is right in front of your face, that's fine, but don't act so insolent about it. I'm not hating on Ronaldo, you simply can't accept the fact that he was unable to successfully adapt his technique once it stopped working for him. What the Tifo video proves was that Ronaldo "was" a good freekick taker earlier in his career, but failed to adapt to whatever conditions stifled his success, and became a not-so-good freekick taker in terms of efficiency in the latter half of his career. You already admitted this yourself.
You're going to hold against him his woeful freekick record after the age of 34 years old How many freekicks did Michel Platini score after the age of 34 years old? How many freekicks did Michel Platini attempt after 34 years old? How many professional football games did Michel Platini play after 34 years old? How many times was he on the bench at 34 years old? How many assists did Michel Platini provide after 34 years old? Zero Michel Platini himself admitted he wasn't even able to adapt to prolong his playing career beyond the age of 31 years old Forget about freekicks he was a joke at the end of the 1986/87 season and had to represent kuwait at the same age Cristiano won his fifth ballon dor Do you hold that against him? Longevity is really a gift and a curse
What does Platini have to do with this? I'm not holding anything against Ronaldo. I don't have an agenda to bring him down. It's OKAY if he wasn't perfect in this area of his game in a particular part of his career. He is an all-time great player, but lost his FK mojo after 2013/14 around age 29/30 and never managed to recover it.
Platini lost his playing ability MOJO at 31 years old to the point he had to RETIRE LMFAO Do you hold this against him? Is his inability to adapt to play professional football beyond the age of 31 years a sign he was less of a genuis(if he was even a football genuis to begin with)?
I find the Tifo chart of conversion rate interesting. It actually pretty clearly goes to the point I’ve made that not everyone has the same amount of free kick attempts. Carlito posted a La Liga ranking of free kicks scored in La Liga in the past 25 years, where Ronaldo is 2nd. But the conversion rate chart in the video indicates that Ronaldo’s conversion rate overall in La Liga was only, broadly speaking, around league average of 6%. So Ronaldo ending up near the very top of the list of free kicks scored in La Liga in the past 25 years is clearly largely a function of taking a lot of free kicks, rather than converting a high percent of them. Of course, I don’t really think this means Ronaldo was actually merely an average free kick taker during his time in La Liga. For one thing, he scored a lot of FK goals outside of La Liga, such that I’m virtually certain his conversion rate in all competitions in those years was higher than it was in just La Liga. For another thing, as the video points out, Ronaldo does attempt some really difficult free kicks, which puts downwards pressure on his conversion rate. And finally, that chart doesn’t include his final two years at Manchester United, which were two of his very prime FK-taking years, where his conversion rate was surely good. But the La Liga conversion rate chart does I think aptly demonstrate the fact that the number of free kicks scored is not the best measure. Conversion rate is a better measure, but the point about taking really difficult FK’s indicates that conversion rate isn’t really a perfect measure either. Ultimately, the best way to evaluate FK-takers is probably to look at their FK conversion rate compared to the xG of their FK attempts. ___________________ EDIT: Just to stop some people from making false accusations of having an agenda, I’ll note that, as far as I can tell, in the era of his career where he was a FK-taker (i.e. about 2012 onwards), Messi generally had even more direct FK attempts than Ronaldo. Of course, he himself was the one getting fouled for quite a lot of them, but the point remains that just looking at raw totals of free kicks scored (rather than conversion rate) is overly favorable to Messi, since Messi had a huge number of FK attempts in those years.
Players probably have a tendency to regress to the mean with higher volume. You are likelier to maintain a high conversion rate with a low sample size than a decent conversion rate at a high one. Judging FKs it is also important to judge context (high pressure vs not) and difficulty. Ronaldo took a lot of direct FKs that no player would dream of attempting. The 6 peecwnt rate is actually highly impressive. Carlito is right. He was the best FK taker at one time. And he did fail to innovate he just lost his ability.
That's fair Shame it took a tifo video and 100 posts to get to this Cristiano Ronaldo isn't a la liga product like some other guys He did his damage across Europe
https://soccerment.com/bend-like-beckham-top-free-kick-takers-europe/ This is the sort of analysis that I think is best with regards to free kicks—i.e. looking at conversion rate compared to xG. This actual article only has like 4 years of league data (starting with 2014-2015), so the sample is small (and very small, to the point of meaningless, for many players included, who might’ve only taken/scored just a few free kicks in that time). And as it relates to Ronaldo it obviously doesn’t include his best years. But it’s the type of analysis that I think is the right way to look at this. With Messi—who actually took enough free kicks in that time (198 attempts) for it to at least be a reasonable sample size—we can see that he scored 10.6% of his free kicks (i.e. 21 out of 198), and his free kicks averaged an xG of 0.07 (i.e. 7%). So he scored a good bit above expected. That’s obviously very good. There’s a bunch of players in the data set who outdo xG even more than that, though I think that’s mostly probably just a function of low sample size for those players (i.e. the data set is just people who scored several free kicks on mostly very low numbers of kicks, and most of them would very likely regress a lot to the mean with more attempts). Ronaldo also had a decent number of free kicks in the data set (105 attempts). It looks like he had a 3.8% conversion rate on his attempts (i.e. he scored 4 out of 105). The xG on his attempts was more like 0.0625 (i.e. 6.25%). So, at least in the free kicks in this data set, Ronaldo was affirmatively a bad free kick taker. It’s only league data, and Ronaldo made a few FK goals outside of the league in that time period, so my guess is that his conversion rate in all competitions in that time period was much closer to the xG. But I think it does indicate that he wasn’t really a good FK-taker anymore, even in the 2014-2018 time period. He still scored a good number of free kicks in that time period, but that seems to have been about number of attempts rather than actually being above average at converting them. The one final thing I’ll note is that this data set does give us information on the average difficulty of free kicks. Ronaldo’s average difficulty in the data set was above average, but not actually by much at all. The average xG of free kicks is 0.06, and the average xG of Ronaldo’s free kicks was about 0.0625. This suggests that the difficulty-of-attempts thing probably isn’t actually a big factor as it relates to Ronaldo.
Most of your infos about 1958 are factually correct..just that they will be even better if you refrain from penning half truths in between. Brazil beat Austria 3-0 and played out a goalless draw with england in their first two matches.surely they were stronger with the inclusion of garrincha and pele but was that struggling? I don't know. Pele assisted the 2nd vava goal I suppose and without that Brazil were winning 1-0 against Russia. In the SF pele scored his hat trick after Brazil were up 2-1,with France down to 10 men.I am actually applying your reasoning and according to that Brazil were up 3-2 in the final without pele's goals.also his 'assist' to vava was bit of a lucky one if he even got a touch at all. Coming to 1970, please tell me which players from 1974 squad according to you were as good as tostao, gerson and Carlos Alberto? Also jairzinho wasn't at his peak in 74 as he was four years earlier and Any sensible football lover will agree with that I assume.not trying to undermine pele's legacy but just trying to look at things as they are. I myself dislike the reasoning I put about 1958 but just replicated your logic.also I've never said Brazil 1958 had a great chance without both Pele and garrincha.rather saying with garrincha and without Pele they would've had a great chance.vice versa is true to me as well.
Correction to the above: I meant to say Ronaldo’s xG on his FKs in that data set was more like 0.0575 (i.e. 5.75%), not 0.0625. Basically, the xG was slightly below the average free kick, suggesting that his free kicks are, on average, slightly more difficult than average.
WhoScored actually has data on shots taken by “situation,” which includes shots taken from set pieces (i.e. direct free kick attempts), for league and CL/Europa from 2009-2010 onwards. From 2009-2010 onwards, it seems that Ronaldo attempted 506 free kicks in league and CL/Europa. According to Transfermarkt data, he scored 31 free kicks in those competitions in that time period. We can then add to that Ronaldo’s free kick scoring and attempts in major competitions for Portugal. We know that he scored 1 free kick for Portugal in major competitions, and that Tifo video says he had attempted 53 for Portugal before the 2022 WC, and I believe he attempted 3 more there. So if we add that to the other data, we have 32 free kicks scored in 559 attempts. That is a 5.7% conversion rate. From the link I provided above, we know that the average xG for Ronaldo in league play in a four-year span was about 0.0575 (i.e. 5.75% conversion rate). We can probably reasonably assume that the xG for Ronaldo’s free kicks in this larger data set was pretty similar to that. So, combining all the the conversion-rate data we actually have (i.e. combining his FK-taking in league + CL/Europa play from 2009-2010 onwards and his FK-taking in major tournaments for Portugal), it seems like Ronaldo was basically pretty much exactly an average FK-taker overall, since his conversion rate was very likely right at his xG. Of course, the above doesn’t count several things. Most prominently, it does not include FK data for club from prior to 2009-2010—where Ronaldo had a couple great FK-taking years, which would very likely pull his career conversion rate a bit above his xG. It also doesn’t include FK-taking in certain other competitions—including domestic cups, super cups, club World Cup, and NT matches not in major tournaments. Ronaldo did score some free kicks in those competitions (not many in those other club competitions, but I believe he did score 9 FK goals for Portugal in non-major-tournament matches). It’s not clear whether including that data (which we can’t do since we don’t have data on attempts in those competitions) would increase or decrease his conversion rate. My guess is it probably wouldn’t change it a whole lot either way, since his percent of FK’s scored in those competitions seems fairly similar to the percent of his career matches in those competitions. Furthermore, the long time period of the data we do have smooths out the data—obscuring the fact that Ronaldo was above average early in the time period and below average later. The conclusion I’d take from this is that, over the course of his entire career, Ronaldo was most likely a slightly above average free kick taker, but that that fact is a bit of a simplification because he had a several-year span where he was great, then several years where he was about average, and then several years where he was very bad.
Seems like a good analysis and fair conclusion to draw. Just as a caution, though, I find WhoScored player histories are sometimes not complete or accurate. For instance (assuming I am using the website properly), WhoScored says Pirlo took 0 set-piece shots in 8 games during the Europa League campaign of 2013/14, but that isn't right. Pirlo actually scored 2 FKs in that campaign and likely took a few more set-piece shots. Likewise, WS says Pirlo only took 2 set-piece shots in Serie A 2011/2012, which is also not right. The same for a few other competitions. I may be able to find the correct number by subtracting open play shots from set-piece shots, but cannot be certain of that. This is also not the first time I recall WhoScored having incorrect or incomplete stats. Perhaps the website is more diligent when it comes to Ronaldo's stats, as he is a mega-star, but its also possible that the numbers could be incorrect or incomplete.
I question the value of xG data, as I doubt they have meaningful sample sizes for some of the shots that are taken. Cristiano took shots from distances you do not see other players attempt, and frequently.
Interesting. I just tried to cross-reference WhoScored FK-shots-taken stats with those in FBref (which has such data from 2017-2018 onwards), and the numbers don’t match at all (WhoScored’s are much higher). So I’m not sure what is going on with WhoScored data. You present reason to believe it may be undercounting attempts, but it being higher than FBref suggests it may be overcounting. So, overall, that perhaps just invalidates the entire exercise I did to be honest. I don’t think we can draw any conclusions when the underlying data set is so suspect. That said, we do still know a few things that back up the general notion/conclusion of my post, even if I don’t think the WhoScored data adds anything reliable: (1) based on the Tifo data, Ronaldo’s free kick conversion rate in La Liga was about average overall, but it seems likely his conversion rate was a bit higher in those years in other competitions since he had 13 FK goals in other competitions in those years (compared to 19 in La Liga, in like twice as many games); (2) without having conversion rate data, we can still be virtually certain that his free kick conversion rate at ManU was good (particularly his last two years there), and we also know his conversion rate after he left Real Madrid was poor; (3) based on the link I provided, the average xG of his free kicks probably wasn’t far from average; and (4) Ronaldo’s free kick conversion rate for Portugal in major tournaments was quite poor, though him having scored 9 FK goals outside major tournaments for Portugal suggests his conversion rate for Portugal was otherwise probably about average at worst. The overall conclusion I’d draw from all that remains similar. Ronaldo was a great free kick taker for several years, then an average free kick taker for several years, and then a poor free kick taker for several years. Without the WhoScored data being reliable, I don’t think we can really say how that averages out over his career, though, but given that sequence of great—>average—>poor, intuitively we’d expect it to fall in the “about-average” zone overall.
I will say that I suspect that the weird stats on WhoScored, at least in terms of Pirlo's stats (I use him because I'm extremely familiar with his career), are probably just that numbers have not been inputted properly. It could be a display issue and not an actual miscount. For instance, if I subtract the "shots from open play" from "total shots", it either matches up with number of set-piece shots, or in some cases where the number is either absent or clearly way under-counted, seems about right. Doing this, I sussed that Pirlo (minus his NYC attempts) made 156 attempts in the 228 games in recorded. That's about 0.6482 attempts per match, which seems plausible at least. But things are complicated further when you raise the issue of Fbref stats being very dissimilar.
The level of scrutiny Pele is subjected to is just ridiculous. He assisted only the 2nd goal, not the first; his hattrick in the semi-final came at the Xth minute, not Yth minute; he did not touch the ball hard enough for his assist; he scored after an opponent had a collision and needed to take painkillers (France weren't down to 10 men by the way). Such absurd scrutiny, that too in a thread where Messi is being exaggerated to have performed at the level of Maradona 1986. Messi did jack shit compared to Pele in the World Cup, but where is the scrutiny there? Also, you should look more at the context and less at the scoreline for your assumptions. Against Russia in 1958, Pele did assist the second goal. However, for the first goal, you did not mention how he created the space for Vava to run into and score. When he ran from the penalty box towards the midfield, the Russian defender marking him ran with him. Didi placed the ball in the resulting space created. Vava ran into that space and scored. If it was Messi, it would be called the greatest key play ever. Regarding 1974: I already said that among the defenders, only Carlos Alberto was better than his 1974 counterpart (overall, 1974 defence is >> 1970). However, a Carlos Alberto does not win a World Cup. Dirceu and Caju are amongst the best ever Brazilian midfielders/deep-lying forwards; they could be considered to adequately replace Tostao and Gerson. In Pele’s absence, Jairzinho and Rivelino were supposed to be the leaders of that team; however, they could replace Pele. Jairzinho scored 24 of his 33 goals when Pele played (53 matches; 0.45 goals per match). Without Pele, he scored another 9 goals in 26 matches (0.34). Rivelino scored 13 of his 26 goals in 30 matches (0.43) when Pele played. Thereafter, he played another 62 matches and scored 13 goals (0.21). So, basically, their peak coincided with Pele and their off form happened after Pele’s departure (when they were actually supposed to be in their prime). It is only indicative of O Rei’s leadership and ability.
The phrase "virtually no one in history" does not apply here as there are many players who have had more successful NT careers than Messi. For example (not an exhaustive list): Among recent Brazilians: Cafu: 5 major trophies (incl. 2 World Cups + 1 runner up) R9: 5 major trophies (incl. 2 World Cups + 1 runner up) Romario: 4 major trophies (incl. 1 World Cup) Roberto Carlos: 4 major trophies (incl. 1 World Cup + 1 runner up) Dunga: 4 major trophies (incl. 1 World Cup + 1 runner up) Taffarel: 3 major trophies (incl. 1 World Cup + 3 runners up) Ronaldinho, Bebeto, Kaka etc: 3 major trophies each (incl. World Cups) Among older Brazilians: Garrincha: 6 trophies (incl. 2 World Cups) Pele 10 trophies (incl. 3 World Cups) Didi: 10 trophies (incl. 2 World Cups) Djalma Santos: 11 trophies (incl. 2 World Cups) Nilton Santos: 15 trophies (incl. 2 World Cups) Among non-Brazilians: Giuseppe Meazza: 4 trophies (incl. 2 World Cups and 2 European Cup precursor), Jose Nasazzi: 7 trophies (incl. 1 World Cup) Spanish players like Iniesta, Xavi, Ramos, Casillas etc.: 3 major trophies (incl. 1 World Cup). Also, most of these players have not had as many failures as Messi (9 out of 11; 82% failure rate!). An international career with such a high failure rate cannot be considered to be a great NT career. Things might change after 2026 though. The main reason why Messi played so many tournaments is lack of success. Brazilian Ronaldo, for example, won so much in the beginning that later on he sat out tournaments such as the Copa America/Confederations Cup even when fit. He had nothing left to win.
Well you started such absurdity by saying the score was 2-2 without pele's hattrick (against France) when the truth is Brazil thoroughly dominated the second half against 10 men and France did not stand much chance then.against Russia, for the first goal pele did just space, that is zero .Didi created it with a deft through ball and vava finished nicely. Caju was there in 1970 too and played quite well but the side was so resourceful he struggled to break into the first 11.rivelino played very well in both 70 and 74 I thought whereas jairzinho was at his prime in only 1970(25 years old) much like maradona '86 at the same age. Thus your weak narrative such as 'Carlos Alberto doesn't win you world cup' doesn't stand.no single player does. You require blood and sweat of 11 people.
You are listing people’s NT resumes without taking away a WC win (which was the whole the premise of the discussion—what peoples’ resumes would look like without their best tournament). And regardless of that, you’re also just listing what people’s teams won. But notice that Messi’s resume without WC 2022 would also include *three* player of the tournament awards in major tournaments. That’s a huge deal. The overall picture of team success and individual accolades Messi would have without his best tournament is stunning and is not something that all (or even most) of the people you listed would match without their best tournament. You’re also doing some fairly misleading things above like counting R9 as having two WC wins when he didn’t play a single minute in one of those. As for having a “high failure rate,” I just fundamentally disagree that NT players should be measured by rate of success, rather than the absolute amount of success and great individual performances they had with their NT. Having the longevity and consistency as an elite player to be a major NT contributor for many many years is a massive part of being a great NT player. You literally contribute more in your NT career if you play more, and players who weren’t elite for as many years (or who just lost interest in playing for their NT) and therefore didn’t feature in as many tournaments shouldn’t somehow get credit for being a greater NT player just because they had success in the lesser number of times they actually played. Over the course of his NT career, Messi brought his NT a World Cup win, a Copa America win, a World Cup runner-up, and three Copa America runners up, while putting in performances that got him two World Cup golden balls, two Copa America player of the tournament awards, and one Copa America best young player award. That is an incredible amount of accomplishment with his NT. Other players who accomplished less but have a lower “failure rate” simply did not contribute to their NT as much and therefore were not greater NT players. The only way that you might be able to count that “failure rate” against Messi as compared to players who played less for their NT is if he actually played *badly* in those “failures” (i.e. the team would’ve been better off having some replacement-level player instead of him, so his contribution was legitimately negative). But that was never even close to the case. Even in their worst tournaments, he was still easily contributing quite positively compared to not having him.
You forgot the Argentines who were as good as Messi in the world cup if not better: Sergio batista: 1 world cup, 1 runner up in 02 tournaments Burruchaga: 1 win,1 runner up Giusti:1 world cup, 1 runner up Cuciuffo: 1 world cup, 1 runner up Olarticoechea: 1 world cup, 1 runner up Ruggeri: 1 world cup, 1 runner up and 2 CA (if I am not mistaken) Thanks for a good laugh
Do we how far back they go for incorporating data into their xG? Does all of the data that goes into xG start at 2012 when OPTA first introduced it? Because you may have a point if they only started collecting data for xG around 2012, as many modern players don't shoot from long distances. From the previous generation though, I can think of a fair few who did shoot from long distance and odd angles with some regularity (at least 30+ yards), including Juninho, Roberto Carlos, Assuncao,etc... which would yield a larger sample size. Juninho would basically consider shooting from anywhere in the opposition half.