I'm choosing to be an optimist: we're realistically 3 points off the pace, and I think we'll still qualify for 2018. But what happens when we get there? I wrote an article on how player ages make a difference at the World Cup, and what that could mean going forward: https://andthenthehex.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/arenas-first-order-of-business-address-the-midfield/ Some additional thoughts on this: 1) First off, @olephill2 and @Mr Martin have done excellent work in this space, particularly with this thread from 2008, and inspired 2) This analysis also relies on the work from GoalImpact on the aging curve for soccer players. The explanation here is an informative way to think about the progression from potential, peak-performance, and sustained performance. 3) On to the data: here are the rosters from the past 4 world cups by age group. Next to that is the minutes played by each of those age groups (no GKs in this analysis.) The core-age players are usually 50% of the team's minutes. I think this also reflects the narratives of our strongest tournament rosters. The 2002 and 2010 teams had a strong core group, some younger players who forced their way on the field, and key contributions from vets (Cherundolo and DeMerit were the two 31+ players in 2010, and they played every minute!) Conversely, the 2006 team, as mentioned in the above thread, didn't have the core players. The 2014 team was probably too reliant on the older group. 4) Now let's look forward. From our most recent roster, here are the guys who will be in that core 25-30 age group at the 2018 World Cup: Forwards Jozy Altidore (29) Bobby Wood (25) Aron Johannsson (27) Midfielders Michael Bradley (30) Defenders Steve Birnbaum (27) John Brooks (25) Timmy Chandler (28) Omar Gonzalez (29) Fabian Johnson (30) Big ol' hole in the middle of the field. Arena getting the midfield right - and setting us up for success at the tournament itself - will be a key priority.
the only lock is Pulisic, its a free-for-all after that. Bradley, Jones, Feilhaber, Kljestan, Nagbe, Perez, some other youngsters, maybe even old man Landon if the cards fall right. It is the most impossible area to predict of the bunch. But I know that we will have the best chance of unlocking the best midfield with Bruce in charge. I would expect the elder generation to be heavily leaned on to get us through qualifying though.
I've always been a big "prime-age" believer in building tournament squads. Those core guys aged 25-30 are crucial in forming a dependable backbone. Then you spice things up with a couple of young guns (Pulisic obviously) and round things out with couple of classy vets. The OP sets up the dilemma nicely by pointing to the black hole in midfield. 2 years ago, when he became eligible, I pointed to Nagbe as a potential key guy this cycle. The fact that Nagbe never started any matches and never played more than 45 minutes (just 1 time) has been frustrating. He is the ideal age for a core midfielder, and he has ball-handling skills that are sorely lacking in the US pool. Yes, he isn't a worker-bee/warrior type. But we have enough of those. The #1 player I'm curious to see how Arena uses is Nagbe (age 28 at the next Cup). I could see him as a #8 in front of Bradley at the #6, in a Y-midfield. Or I could see Nagbe in the attacking midfield roles in a Y-mid or Box-mid alignment. The #2 guy I'm curious about is Danny Williams (age 29 at the next Cup), also as a #8 option, or maybe converted back to the #6 role he played at times some years ago. These are two prime age guys already in the pool who need to be tested ASAP. Short term, leading into March qualifiers, I have no problem trying Kljestan or Feilhaber or McCarty or keeping Jones around. Bedoya as depth. But Nagbe and Williams are key for me at the moment. Do these the guys belong? Can we build around them? If yes, then the midfield problems start to solve themselves. If not, then Arena has to dig deeper into the player pool.
No worries, Miguel Ibarra will be 28 in Russia. Problem solved! Nice work @cpwilson80. Honestly, better than most of the soccer "journalists". You covered the most important aspect. A few addition thoughts... Firstly, if we move Fabian Johnson to midfield that adds a second prime age guy there, an attackingish one at that, although likely more on the wing. I decided to look a little bit deeper than "called up in the last year" (I'm looking at the past 4) to just see if there was anything out there/what went wrong. If you mentioned him in your article I'm ignoring them. Age 25-30 at 2018 WC. Attacking Winger Types: Miguel Ibarra (28) Joe Gyau (25) Brek Shea (28) Ethan Finlay (27) Fafa Picault (27) Josh Gatt (25) .....(these guys "could/have" play there)..... Bobby Wood (25) Gyasi Zardes (26) Jerome Kiesewetter (25) Juan Agudelo (25) This is an interesting mix of Flameouts, Injuries, Klinsman Reaches, and Forwards, nonetheless it demonstrates the decent depth we have here. Of course with Fabian and Pulisic, we may not need any of these guys here. But to the crux of your article the central midfield: Joe Corona (27) Jose Torres (30) That's it other than (not so inspiring list) of guys you mentioned/played more recently. Hard to believe that JFT is only 29. A bit of an indictment on JKs early Liga MX infatuation, but more so an indictment of the pool. As you point out (and Arena has "bemoaning" the lack of attacking passers out there), the attacking CMs are almost completely absent. Possible Dmids (also one could add Matt Polster to this list as he was called up by JK (didn't play) and would be 25), but who will create? Nagbe the one possible exception. Beyond that there is little in this age group to look at. The only 2 potential other names I have are: Sebastian Lletget (25) and Kelyn Rowe (26) Obviously Arena knows Lletget well, but his 2nd MLS season didn't go as well as his first. Bruce played him all over the place, but rarely as an attacking central player. He came off the bench quite a bit. It's a bit hard to judge just how much BA likes him. Rowe, similarly, played all over the place for Revolution, though mostly on the wings. He's had an impressive 4 years as a young MLS player, but never quite cementing himself as a future star. Both of these players should be called in January, though neither is likely to be the answer. It sounds as if Bruce will start by giving Sacha and Benny a shot and winning a spot. While clearly they are good players neither is likley to thrive at the International level, now, let alone at age 33 in Russia. My conclusion is we will go back to slogging through matches and grinding out results. It will work out O.K., but will leave us longing, much like the past 20 years. P.S. Freddy Adu turns 29 on 6/2/2018. Not sure whether to
The number one question is what to do with MB. I think he's neither or best 6 nor 8 and requires a box-to-box midfielder next to him. The current MLS favorites on this board aren't really B2B players but rather 8s and I firmly believe that MB is not a candidate as a 6 vs. Mexico/CR or better. what should we do if he's not the best at either 6 or 8 and we don't have a good partner for him? Is BA willing to sit our captain? should he?
A front 6 I'd like to see in the near future: ------------Altidore------Wood----------- ---Pulisic----------------------Nagbe----- -----------------Williams------------------ -----------------Bradley------------------- It's a Y-midfield, or could even be a box. Pulisic and Nagbe are pinched in but free to shift around a bit. Defensively they'd shift to more traditional LM and RM roles. This is how Bob Bradley sort of used Donovan and Dempsey at his cycle's 2009 peak. That's 5 prime-age guys plus Pulisic, who will be 20 at the Cup and can provide the youthful spark like Donovan did in 2002.
Interesting stuff. I do think those charts side by side show a bit of a problem in terms of more young players making the roster but getting fewer minutes. 35% of your guys getting only 7% of your PT sounds like an inefficient allocation of resources.
I would agree if we are taking only a single WC into account, but if you were given two WCs to play with, you might want to front-load the first one with younger players, at least a bit.
Arena has been very clear that he sees MB90 as a #6. With that decision the dominoes will start falling.
For him, yes, but perhaps not for us? Green 19 Yedlin 20 Brooks 21 AJ 23 Mix 23 Chandler 24 Altidore 24
4-5 man midfield (depending on tactics): Pulisic (19), Bradley (30), Cameron (32)/Roldan (23), Nagbe (27)/Johnson (30), Lletget (25)/Perez (20). It jumps around a bit, but they're all within an acceptable range, and it's not too old or too young on the whole I don't think. Can't exactly shoehorn prime players. Gotta work with what we have, which ain't half bad frankly. Still enough time for sleepers to emerge. Oddly enough, Sean Davis would fit in that 25-30, and I like his game. Doesn't have a clear weakness. He's Geoff Camerony.
For me, It's one of the biggest mysteries over the past year, where a fairly standard player trajectory was about to reach its destination, and then deviated wildly. How many articles did we read in the build-up to MLS Cup 2015 about Portland's formation shift optimizing Nagbe's talent? It was also the SAME POSITION where the US needed some new ideas post-Gold Cup. Yet he was behind Finlay and Nguyen in early 2016, behind Diskerud at Guatemala, behind Zusi at home to Guatemala, and proceeded to play all over the place in the Copa build-up and tournament.
I was thinking along these lines too. We could have guys like Roldan, Acosta, or Delgado emerge as options, and they'd just be a couple years younger than the 25-30 window. Maybe even guys like Zelalem or Hyndman, though I'm more skeptical of them being good options for a WC about 1.5 years away when they aren't getting 1st team minutes yet.
Thanks for the kind words...it was a fun one to research. The Lletget/Rowe positional rotation surprised me. I like watching both players, but they also seem like guys who are fantastic to have on a roster, but might not be the first choice at any one position. Of course, the Revs in the 4-2-3-1 have many pretty good options with Nguyen, Agudelo, Bunbury, and Fagundez all spending time in that attacking midfield band. It makes it more difficult for Rowe to lock down a position that could be a launching pad for US consideration. I think this gets to your other point. We have many more options in that tweener role of withdrawn forward / outside attacking midfielder than we do true central midfielders. How or why that happened is worthy of further exploration, but it seems like it goes beyond the ebb and flow of a player pool.
The bigger factor is probably experience, with a body that isn't too mature or immature. Just so happens that would usually fall into the 25-30 age-range, or thereabouts. Pulisic would be pretty experienced at that point, even though he was only 19. He'd have went through Copa America, WC qualifiers, + years of Bundesliga + Champions' League. Just don't want to go nuts w/ the youngsters/inexperienced players. Could afford another one probably, just the midfield shouldn't be littered w/ them. In 2002 we had Donovan (20), Beasley (20), O'Brien (24), Mastroeni (25), Reyna (28), and Lewis (28). So it was pretty young, we just weren't going crazy in that regard. Better skewed young than old though, I say.
Two other MFs with a little NAT experience... Kitchen (26 in 2018) and Morales (28 in 2018). I wouldn't mind seeing Grella(31) get a chance in a more attacking role. Grella had 7G and 6A in 2016 and decent numbers in 2015 too.
I'm hoping Acosta gets to understudy Jones. I think the styles are similar but Acosta needs to absorb the Jones swagger and leadership. He is also one of those three lung guys like Jones and Bradley and has had his team in first place for two years at age 20-21. I;m afraid FCD will lose him soon. Can see him in Germany for sure.
MB is simply not a ball-winner nor structurally a great defender. It looks to me like he's really lost a lot of his foot quickness which makes it hard to win challenges. Perhaps BA will use him ina way that relieves a lot of his responsibilities and therefore allow him to perform better as a six it I just don't see him being successful vs. Mexico/CR or better teams. Here's to hoping I'm wrong.
I completely agree about Nagbe. I think improving the technical skills, passing, and playmaking on the team will be paramount and that means include Nagbe and one of Feilhaber or Kliestan. He can do that in a couple of different systems, depending on if he wants to try to get more of a #10 on the field or keep the Jozy - Wood partnership going. I can see that going a few ways. --------------------Jozy (is a lock right now) Pulisic (lock) ----------------------------------------Johnson --------------------Nagbe-------- Feilhaber/ Kljestan/ Nguyen -------------------------------Bradly (lock) Unknown-----------------------------------------------------------------Yedlin/ Chandler/ Cam -------------------------Brooks (lock)-------------Cam /Birnbuam------------- In this set up its probably Kljestan because he's a more two way player. I lean this way. I think Arena likes Nagbe and really likes Kljestan- He did an interview and called him the best player in the MLS the last year or two. If he wants a more pure #10 then a 4321 might work with Johnson LB and Nagbe at right wing. That would allow him to put any of those three ( again probably Kljestan) in the CAM position and put another deep playing ball winner next to Bradley. Trapp or Williams or Jones. Someone like that. That's possible but as he has said- he doesn't have time to tinker with the player pool. So bringing in Trapp or Williams seems unlikely. Jones is the more likely version there. He may go the most simply version with the fewest changes. ------------------------Jozy ----------------------------------Wood Pulisic--------------------------------------------Nagbe -------------------Kljestan -------------------------------Bradley Johnson -----------------------------------------------------Yedlin -------------------Brooks ---------------Cam ------------ Honestly this is very likely and even probable. Its a very solid system that adds playmaking, passing ability, and technical skill. It simply moves on from Jones. I would like us to move to a more 433 set up. I like my first linuld eup better. But this could work very well. Its actually what I thought JK would do and should have done... but he gets hung up on players personality and I think he wanted a hungrier, driven NAgbe and that's just not who he is. I also think he couldnt' let go of Jones and that I really hurt him these last couple of games. Overall I think the main two inclusions we'll see from Arena are Nagbe and Kljestan. I think Feilhaber and or Nguyen will make the roster consistently but unless he goes with a 433 set up- won't be starters. I think Jones phases out unless he's willing to bring his energy and destructive force off the bench. We'll see.
Nice post although I firmly believe that at present and for the past several years, JJ has been far more valuable than MB. Given that he is getting older and needs to be replaced for Mexico is a real challenge obviously. The challenge with both of those setup is that it has limited ability to defend against strong teams as MB is just not a ball-winner/stopper which is the most important role for a six when paired with a offensive partner (Sacha) or two mids in front of him (Nagbe plus X). It's a great set-up to go play CONCACAF excluding Mexico and CR but teams that have strong possession/incisive passing will be a nightmare for us. I'd rather have Cameron playing that role quite frankly.
While a little harsh, I think that you have pointed out the #1 issue that BA has to solve and by placing MB90 as the #6 he will have to make other adjustments in order to balance out Bradley's deficiencies. I suspect in the end we are going to see adjustments form BA similar to the ones we saw from JK. There is no free lunch.