So, who do you think will win (not who do you want to win) on Tuesday. Put aside your wants and dig down deep inside and say who you think will win and by how much.
Kerry will win the popular and electoral votes by narrowly carrying Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Nevada.
Out of a sample size of 15? Given the BigSoccer political climate this indicates a Bush landslide. Of course the margin of error is plus or minus 100%.
Unless one side wins by 5% or more, it will be contested. Even then I wouldn't be surprised by a Chicken Little screaming "fraud."
Sorry...I can't stand Bush and even though I'm campaigning for the Democrats, I just don't think Kerry is going to win. This country is too ignorant to elect him. Bush has a carte blanche...he gets away with so much, lies, lies and more lies, and is not held accountable for the crap job he's done these past 4 years.
Hey, a few years ago in this state, the GOP candidate for Snohomish County executive cried voter fraud ... ... after losing by 15 points. My prediction: Kerry kicks ass. The polls, as they did in 2000, underestimate Democratic support, only more so this time. Kerry's electoral vote total will be well into the 300s. Bush will still refuse to concede, but Kerry will simply declare victory. The lawyers will war, and the Ds will win the clash of the briefcases, then add their own spin to trash-talk with new and inventive uses for Latin and subordinate clauses. The House may very well go Democratic; if not, the Democrats will retake the Senate as well as the White House. If it's a GOP House, the Republicans will find themselves labeled as obstructionist, especially as pressure comes from international investors to do something about the deficit.
Can't argue with you there, Americans must be dumb if the choice boils down to Dubya and the Ketchup Queen. Anyone else want to ask for a mulligan?
Bush: 314 (Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming) Kerry: 224 (California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachussetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington)
You forgot Poland! Ok, that was soooooo last month. After you state by state list I should have gone with the instant classic... [dean]YYYYYEEEEEEAAAAAOOOOOOO!!!!!![/dean]
Here is mine. Kerry wins the electoral vote, but loses the popular one. Both houses remain Republican. Off course as my namesake suggest.....I know nothing.
Bush, narrowly. Unless the wilder predictions about voter turnout are accurate both in terms of numbers and significance.
Michigan is MY state. We will not vote Bush. Hell, we didn't the first two times around (primary and presidential elections in 2000).
I honestly have absolutely no idea, and won't be staying up to find out, as I don't think that it will be settled that night, or the next. But I'll tell you two things: (1) In terms of elections in my lifetime (since 1970), this is the most important. (2) The currently ignored Senate races may be just as important, especially if BushCorp. returns to lead Empire.
I am 100% certain that Kerry will win the overall popular vote. The electoral vote... well, I think he'll win, but it'll be close. I'll trust Zogby when he says Kerry will win, but I don't have a solid feeling about that.
Kerry wins. (1) Polls aren't showing the choice of the 18% of us without land lines. The vast maojrity of people without land lines are in the 18-29 age bracket and will vote predominantly for Kerry. (2) Polls that are showing likely voters aren't including new registrants, the majority of whom are Democrats. Polls are underestimating Kerry's support. Kerry will win. Bush will be without a job. I hear they need research subjects at the Yerkes Primate Research Center in Atlanta. He can qualify for that.