Official prediction thread-expansion draft

Discussion in 'FC Dallas' started by Viking64, Nov 6, 2004.

  1. Viking64

    Viking64 Member

    Feb 11, 1999
    Tarheel State
    Let's have a list of your unprotected:

    Prediction of Unprotected
    1- Chris Gbandi D
    2- Steve Jolley D
    3- Jason Kreis F
    4- Ty Maurin M
    5- Toni Nhleko F S-I
    6- Oscar Pareja M
    7- Eric Quill M
    8- Carey Talley D-M

    If FCD trot this out there, FC Dallas might lose one player. Might.
    Gbandi- why would someone want a part time player
    Jolley - too high a cap number in back line
    Kreis - too high a cap number anywhere
    Maurin - hardly seen MLS action, why risk it
    Nhleko - SI that puts out too little for so much $$
    Pareja - too old
    Quill - Could get taken, but his crap year here made it unlikely
    Talley - the most likely to be taken by RSL, since he's got experience, not too old, and started some of the year.
  2. stopper4

    stopper4 Member

    Jan 24, 2000
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Cool. But in what order what you re-protect players. Remember when FCD can protect an additonal player when an unprotected player is picked by another team.

    You'd protect both goalkeepers?

    I'll submit my full list later on. It's a drill weekend and I'm beat.
  3. Viking64

    Viking64 Member

    Feb 11, 1999
    Tarheel State
    I would just because Clarke did rebuild the defense. If one gets picked up, you are looking at a P-40 kid and praying that Cassar, who has a history of injury, does not get hurt. No thanks, when the team has plenty of spares to throw out, why not?

    As for protection, if Talley or Quill get picked I take up Maurin, or maybe Gbandi. But it does not say you have to protect anyone after you have a player selected. It says you can. Since most of those guys are hardly a lock to make the squad, I give them all the chance to find a new gig before I cut them in the post-draft camp.
  4. Brushes Sand

    Brushes Sand Member

    Oct 12, 2000
    RSL know they aren't going to win.
    The most important thing for them is to get established.
    And the brand will be more important than their level of play
    in their first year.

    If you were tasked with building Brand for a new franchise year 1,
    and the all time leading goal scorer in the league was available
    at any price, do you take him? Who is RSL going to bring in
    that can build Brand with their allocations for MLS money?

    There are at least 10 Talleys in the A-League ready to move
    back up. We might lose Talley with the 2nd pick if we don't
    remove him after RSL's first pick.

  5. F.C.D.

    F.C.D. New Member

    Sep 2, 2004

    Looks pretty good, but my math says that you've exposed one (maybe two) too many players. If each team protects 12 then we would only have to expose 6 players or 7 if EJ isn't protected.

    So I would take Steve Jolley off the list, other that Jason and Pareja, he's the only one that consistantly started last year.

    The first I would pull back would be Talley. And being a last place team I would be surprised if we had more than one player selected.
  6. Jambon

    Jambon Member

    Mar 3, 2000
    Austin, TX
    Depending on how the conferences are realigned (has this already been decided?), RSL could end up in the same conference with FCD and a Landon-less SJ. Under those circumstances, I'd say they would have an excellent chance of making the playoffs.

    As far as players to expose, I wouldn't protect the following:

    Wagenfahr/Maurin (whichever is active roster this week)
  7. ChrisE

    ChrisE Member

    Jul 1, 2002
    Nat'l Team:
    American Samoa
    Although the Chicago Fire won the MLS Cup in 1998, I think a lot has changed since then. MLS has become more talented, top to bottom, and the talent has become deeper. It's not so easy to throw $250,000 at somebody and suddenly have yourself a star (cf. Sergio Galvan Rey). RSL is being given a lot of advantages - expansion draft, first overall pick, discoveries and allocations galore, but I'm still not convinced they'll be able to build a competitive team their first year.

    If you look at the A-league, expansion teams used to be able to join the league and succeed immediately - as the league has become more consolidated recently, that has been much harder to do - this year, all three expansion teams were very poor. I'd like to think, although I'm not entirely certain, that MLS is somewhat similar.

    As much as you can criticize the personnel moves made by the club, Dallas wasn't just mediocre this year because of the offseason, they were mediocre because we were terrible the year before, and it's hard to rebuild that much in a single year. Although MLS has made parity seem practically second nature to its fans, I'm not sure a RSL constitued of Carey Talleys, Steve Jolleys, and Chris Gbandi's is going to be able to go 10-11-9 like the rest of the league's teams.
  8. Jambon

    Jambon Member

    Mar 3, 2000
    Austin, TX
    I can certainly accept your premise, except on one point - that we actually achieved mediocrity this season. In my opinion we only rose from 3rd-worst-in-league-history in 2003 to worst-in-league in 2004. Woo hoo.

    As far as RSL's chances to win in their inaugaral season, that depends on the same thing as always - good coaching. They may or may not have it. There is no reason to believe at this point that we do.

    I have no doubt that a Nowak or Gansler would kick the living hell out of us with a team of Talleys, Quills, Jewsburys, and Carrolls. If Ellinger is a good coach and gets lucky with a Damani Ralph or Taylor Twellman in the draft, he might do the same thing too.
  9. terp fan

    terp fan New Member

    Nov 21, 2000
    Who stays and who goes:

    00 Jeff Cassar stays because he's cheap and equal to Garlick. (protect)

    1 Scott Garlick costs three times Cassar's number. (expose)

    2 Cory Gibbs is a core player going forward, until WC when he and Johnson like go to Euro. (protect)

    3 Carey Talley has versitlily to play holding MF, CB or outside back positions and with Jolley probably leaving and Stone retired he will be important for experienced depth, doesn't make a ton of money. (protect)

    4 Chris Gbandi may have run out of chances with CC but may be good trade bait, look for a move before the expansion draft. (expose)

    5 Steve Jolley sadly makes too much when coupled with Gibbs number. His dollars will be needed to pay new allocated players and organization seems ready to give Goodson a chance along side Gibbs. Perhaps a trade deal may be worked with him too. (expose)

    6 ROB is core member of the team going forward and he's likely the get his green card within the next 12-24 months making him even more valuable. (protect)

    7 Eddie Johnson is core member of the team for the next two years and FCD will try to sign him to an extension within the next two years or lose him to Euro and reality is he will be gone after the WC. (protect)

    8 Oscar Pareja stays because of his history with the team (leadership), he still has a bit left and Nunez isn't ready. If a big signing is made in the middle then Oscar may be expendable but I think he stays anyway. (protect)

    9 Jason Kreis is a victim of the league continuing to improve and passing him bye. He looked old and slow this year, make too much money and got more time than he earned due to captaincy. I don't see him back even at the minimum because he would not be a happy presence in the locker room. (expose)

    10 Brad Davis had a very bad year but he's younger than Quill and CC seems to like him. Has some upside. (protect)

    14 Milton Reyes will be valuable as a weapon for FCD or as trade bate. His speed can change a game but rarely did. Chivas will probably give up a lot to get him and his green card. (protect)

    15 Eric Quill is Brad Davis in terms of production but is younger and doesn't seem to have CC's favor. (expose)

    16 Matt Behncke is very effective at three positions, is loved by CC and will be critical to the depth along the backline especially with Goodson's inexperience, Gibbs missing games with WCQ and no proven left back. (protect)

    17 Simo Valakari among the best holding MF's in the league although overpaid. Likely to be team captian next year. Will be better with some time off prior to next season. (protect)

    18 Toni Nhleko is a great guy that everyone pulls for but his SI will be needed to get a more productive SI. (expose)

    19 Bobby Rhine will be with FCD until he retires, brings a lot to the team beyond what we see on the field. (protect)

    20 Clarence Goodson will again be P-40.

    21 Ramon Nunez will be developmental in some unknown status.

    22 Phil Salyer is young, cheap, a good defensively and brings needed depth in the back. (protect)

    23 Ty Maurin started the preseason as FCD's most effective attacker but never got a chance once the season started. Could be moved to developmental before the expansion draft but if not he just hasn't shown enough to warrant keeping him protected. (expose)

    25 Dave Wagenfuhr is developmental.

    The only possilbe chances I could see happening would be through trades or Gbandi may be protected at Oscar's expense. The names must be given to the league by 11-15-04 and draft will take place on 11-22-04.
  10. Viking64

    Viking64 Member

    Feb 11, 1999
    Tarheel State
    I don't see how you figure that. The rules are you can protect 12 full roster players, and P-40's. FC Dallas has 22 players on the entire roster, so 12 from 22 is 10. I am supposing that Johnson stays p-40 with Goodson. Stone retired, so they only protect two players that way. That leaves 8 unprotected. Nuñez was a straight draft pick, and I figure his salary makes him not eligible for P-40. Unless MLS gets generous and allows Clarke to put Wagenfuhr and Maurin BACK on P-40, they are going on the block. And if Johnson does graduate, then there will be 9 unprotected.

    Garlick's salary does make him vulnerable, but I stick by my picks.

    As I said, I can't see FC Dallas losing ENOUGH of these guys, much less too many.
  11. Scipio Gothicus

    Aug 6, 2001
    Cabo San Lucas
    Celtic FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am looking at this a bit differently. Which players will want to be exposed?

    Garlick came here to start, and though he has been classy while on the bench, he knows he is number two in Dallas. He might be good for an expansion team, as well. RSL will have a goal of getting to the playoffs first year, and they will need a solid 'keeper to get there.

    I also think the Jason will want out. EJ cemented a starting spot this year, as well as a regular role in Il Bruce's camp. The talk from the team is that the MPA will go to a striker, and this leaves no place for Jason. Even if he were willing to accept a huge salary cut, he would not be starting. His value to RSL would be veteran leadership, and marketability to fans of the MLS in the area. Instant credibility in an American player. This year, of course, could be a fluke. He could have eight or ten goals left. Jason would be very tempting if left exposed.

    Sir Drinxalot
  12. Brushes Sand

    Brushes Sand Member

    Oct 12, 2000

    I don't want to face Jason and I don't want to lose him for nothing.
    We leave him unprotected, we get NOTHING for him. If he can retire
    in Frisco, we get an allocation. Of course, it won't be like Chicago
    or New York or LA replacement allocations, but it would be a replacement
    allocation nonetheless. Burn/FCD have more than a million dollars
    invested in the League's all-time leading goal scorer. What did we
    get for Sanchez? Leonel? Sutter?

    I fully concurr that Jason's production was not what it should have
    been for his cap figure. I also believe he is worth something to
    this franchise in Frisco both on and off the field, and in retirement, both
    on and off the field. And I will not be happy if he is allowed to leave
    with no compensation to the team whatsoever thus insuring that
    our investment in his name is not used to build the FCD brand in
    Frisco, thus insuring that there is no compensation from the league
    in the form of a replacement allocation, and thus insuring that our
    (potential) conference foe has someone who has Karmic Vengeance
    in his gameday bag of tricks.

    Jason, GE, Clark Hunt, CC & Wagner are all stuck in a conundrum.
    It's in no one's best interest for Jason to leave, and it's in no
    one's best interest for him to stay under the status quo.

    It is time for everyone to concede something, on all sides,
    to insure that everyone saves honor and investment.

    In this situation, there will be no clear winners, but it is
    possible for everyone not to lose. Jason leaves, everyone
    loses. Jason stays, with different role, compromised salary
    figure, and HSG pays more for his services in a reduced
    role than they otherwise would for anyone else. Jason doesn't
    have to uproot his life. Jason gets to retire from Frisco.
    HSG gets to use MLS All-Time leading goal-scorer to build
    FCD Brand in Frisco. FCD gets goal production from a right

    Rice-Eccles is Field Turf. IMHO, Jason has a better chance
    of adding to his goal scoring tally on set pieces in Frisco than
    he does watching from the bench in Utah with busted Cruciates.

  13. 3rd Degree

    3rd Degree Member

    Feb 6, 2000
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You are a bit off....
    1. P40s are graduating before the expansion draft. That menas Eddie
    (and DJ countess in Chi).
    2. Maurin is full roster, Wagenfuhr is protected as develpmental. Unless MLS changes their minds again they will stay this way for Exp Draft.
    3. Nunez is protected as he is essentially the same status as P40, just like Danny Szetela is for Cbus.

    so there are 19 players of which 12 can be protected.
    developmental "safe" list is: Wagenfuhr, Nunez, and Goodson.
  14. Brushes Sand

    Brushes Sand Member

    Oct 12, 2000

    Good news on Wags and Nunez.

    Will be very upset if Maurin turns in to something after we had
    our hands on him and actually saw Big Production Potential.

    Problem is, CC and GE are damned if they do, damned if they don't
    re: Maurin. We have no idea because we never saw him. And how
    can you protect an unknown asset?

  15. 3rd Degree

    3rd Degree Member

    Feb 6, 2000
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Frankly I would be stunned if anyone took Maurin.

    I would not be stunned if MLS reverses themselves and "promoted" all developmental players who are not P40... thus moving Wags up... but for now he is in the clear.
  16. Kevin Lindstrom

    Oct 28, 2003
    Dallas, TX
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lots of good analysis cut.

    I agree on Scott - and I can't imagine RSL not taking him unless they think they can get their hands on Kasey. Probably too soon to count on that. We need cap space. Yes, relying on Jeff will make me nervous, esp. w/o Jolley (if he is exposed and taken). But adding an allocation (and possibly a discovery or two) and re-upping Ronnie is not going to be cheap.

    Not sure I agree on Talley simply because of the cost - I'm not so sure he is that cheap, and if the team is really going to add an allocation salary, we're going to need that cap room. But you're right, he is versatile.

    GBandi will be exposed, but I'm not sure anyone is going to take him.

    Jolley - oy. While our defensive organization was not incredbile with him in there, it was a LOT worse when he wasn't. I think while financially "smart," I think this is a bad move if they do it.

    I think that, as much as I would like to see Oscar never leave, I don't think he has the legs to make it anymore. Is he really worth a spot on the team and cap room just to be a mentor to Nunez (who doesn't seem to be listening, anyway?) If we can graduate him to the coaching staff, that would be better.

    I seriously doubt Jason is taken - all he has to do is make it clear that he is not going to play on that turf (and considering his experience in Southlake, who can blame him?) and while he may be exposed, he isn't going to be taken. And there is an argument that RSL wouldn't take him for his production, anyway.

    Eric is actually older than Brad, but yes, he is definitely someone who should be exposed (or otherwise has pictures of CC or GE in compromising positions.)

    Can't agree more on Toni - wished they had done it last season. For those who point to his production, I would give you two words, "Ninty minutes." As in, how many times did he play that?

    Not sure about Bobby, although his versatility to play right mid for Ronnie woudl be important (we don't really have anyone else who can play that position well....) I think it depends on his salary situation. Surely he has been in the league long enough to have a more veteran salary.... Then again, he clearly has one of the best attitudes on the team, so if they can keep him, I'd like to see it.

    Bottom line - we have to expose 7. Quill, Nhlecko, GBandi, Garlick, Oscar, Jason and Jolley(*)....

    Protected (12): Cassar, Benchke, Davis, Gibbs, Johnson, Maurin(*), O'Brien, Reyes, Rhine, Salyer, Talley and Valakari

    Ineligible (P-40) - Goodson, Nunez, Wags

    (*) - this is what I think they will do, not what I think is the right decision. Unless one of the developmental players is a defensive organizer (or unless Goodson or Gibbs becomes one), this will be a weakness for us.

    Personally, I hope that we can get two good discovery players and at least one allocation of note and put them to good use. That will require a good bit of salary cap space. Losing Toni should help, but it won't be everything.

    If we can use both allocations and both discovery signings, that would be great.

    Either way, we need salary cap flexibility.

    It is going to be very interesting.
  17. Jambon

    Jambon Member

    Mar 3, 2000
    Austin, TX

    Either he is P40 or he isn't. If he is, we don't have to protect him. If he isn't, we do. I'm not sure what you mean by "essentially the same status as P40."
  18. F.C.D.

    F.C.D. New Member

    Sep 2, 2004
    First - Good notes Terp!

    My Protected 12:
    1. Cassar - Obvious
    2. Gibbs - Obvious
    3. Talley - Can play too many positions to leave unprotected. Especially with Stone's retirement, Talley is our only back up d-mid.
    4. Jolley - I would protect him as he brings a lot to the table and Corey will be gone for significant periods of time over the next two years.
    5. O'Brien - Obvious
    6. Johnson - Obvious
    7. Davis - Off year this year, but was our MVP the year before. Too young and too much up side to give up on him for nothing in return.
    8. Reyes - Even if you don't like the way he plays, Chivas would snap him up in an instant. Have to protect him.
    9. Behncke - Protection at left and center for a good price, especially if Gbandi leaves.
    10. Simo - Obvious
    11. Rhine - Assuming JK and Nhlecko are gone and we get an allocated Forward, he'll be the 3rd forward.
    12. Garlick - Helps provide half of one of the best GK tandems in the League. If we lose him where do we get a back-up?

    Exposed - I placed these in order of pulling them back.

    13. Pareja - Would hate to lose him, but I don't think even Chivas would want a 36 year old central midfielder not named Valderrama.
    14. Salyer - Decent player, but did he show enough for a team to say "I have to have him on my backline?". Even if we lost him should be able to find replacement in the draft.
    15. Quill - Keep either Davis or Quill, but Brad is 5 years younger and a more exciting player.
    16. Gbandi - Assumes CC and GE have shopped him and nobody wants him. If left unexposed someone will take him. Just aren't too many left sided experienced players out there.
    17. Kreis - I agree with Brushes, If left exposed RSL would love to get the instant credibility with their fans.
    18. Nhlecko - Just didn't do enough to validate his spot, plus we'll need his SI slot for one of our allocations (I hope).
    19. Maurin - Just not enough is known about him for him to be taken him if nothing else was available.

    I initially left Garlick exposed and Salyer protected. But after some thought I figured that Garlick's departure would hurt more than Salyers, so I switched them.
  19. inferno man

    inferno man Member

    Nov 26, 1999
    I agree more with F C D's.

    Another factor in the cap is E J's salary this year.
  20. ihearttheburn

    ihearttheburn New Member

    Jul 26, 2004
    Denton/Plano, Texas
    Question: how likely do you guys think it is that Kreis & Pareja will be left unprotected, and if they are protected who is unprotected? Something to think about...
  21. terp fan

    terp fan New Member

    Nov 21, 2000
    Did you read the previously 19 posts?
  22. stopper4

    stopper4 Member

    Jan 24, 2000
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Being P-40 means being a part of the NIKE Project 40 program. Which means:

    1) you must be U.S. citizen (Ramon Nunez is not, yet)

    2) you can't 'belong' to a competitor. Szetla is sponsored by Adidas. They're paying a sizeable chunk of his salary. Therefore, Nike won't help to pay him.

    So Calvin HQ has let it be known that these two are essentially P-40 (developmental roster, league pays salary) even though they can't call them 'P-40'.

    Oh, and I like Terp's list of protected vs. unprotected.
  23. Wacko4Burn

    Wacko4Burn New Member

    Apr 26, 2004
    Waco, TX
    It still amazes me how many of you hard-core fans are so down on Jason Kreis, after all he's done for the organization. Sure, his production was down this year, but considering the price he paid on the Sucklake turf, he came back faster than expected and picked up the captaincy for the first time. Sure, he sucked the last 6 games save the last v. SJ, but so did the whole team. I say keep him and give him a shot to earn the starting spot. He deserves the chance to play on the Promised Pitch.
  24. ihearttheburn

    ihearttheburn New Member

    Jul 26, 2004
    Denton/Plano, Texas
    ya think?

    I'm just saying I don't really think its that likely that they'll leave them both unprotected. It just doesn't sound right to me... they're both veteran leaders so all I'm asking is do y'all really, truly think that it'll happen?

    Or maybe what I'm trying to say is what do y'all think they'll do as opposed to what you'd like to see?
  25. F.C.D.

    F.C.D. New Member

    Sep 2, 2004
    After reviewing my list I'd be happy if that's what Greg and Collin decided to do.

    Thanks JK and OP for the years of service, it's been great. But if them leaving means that we have a better chance of playing for the Cup at our house in '05, then so be it.

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