One of the promotion criteria is average attendance, and so far only Kagoshima has the necessary 2000+. Azul Claro and Nara are slightly below 1600. With these crowds they won't be promoted even if they somehow manage to finish in Top-4 alongside Kagoshima.
Shakaijin is not over yet, but since Arterivo Wakayama has qualified to the promotion series as the league winner, three remaining spots are sealed by Hannan University and Banditonce Kakogawa from Kansai and Reinmeer Aomori from Tohoku. Here is the final list of participants: Sapporo FC Ganju Iwate Reinmeer Aomori Briobecca Urayasu Saurcos Fukui FC Kariya Arterivo Wakayama Banditonce Kakogawa Hannan Uni Matsue City FC FC Imabari Nippon Steel Sumitomo Oita SC That's a great list with plenty of J. League aspirants and only two non-independent teams. Better still, they should replace either RKU Dragons or Fagiano Next.
As I understand, they don't want to expand for now, and JFL will be kept at 16 teams for the next season as well. They will also incorporate just 2 new teams. If someone (i.e. Kagoshima) is promoted, there will be less relegation, not more promotion from regional leagues. So the competition for JFL spots will be incredibly tough this year.
Regional Leagues playoffs under way! GROUP A Nippon Steel Oita 0-0 (pk 5-3) Banditonce Kakogawa Briobecca Urayasu 6-0 Sapporo FC Urayasu taking the lead already, unsurprisingly. The draw is bad for both Nippon Steel and Banditonce, tbh neither of them has the capacity to overcome Briobecca so promoting (even as best second) is going to be a long shot. GROUP B Rein Meer Aomori 1-1 (pk 4-5) Matsue City FC Kariya 1-0 FC Ganju Iwate Very interesting result. I never rated Kariya much, as far as I know they've never had J. League ambitions (they were in the JFL until five years ago but went back down to the Regional Leagues). I also thought Matsue City would beat Rein Meer more easily, they've definitely taken over from Dezzolla as the Shimane team. They should also have some former JFL players iirc. Ganju... I don't know. With Rein Meer and Blancdieu getting better every season, this was perhaps their last chance to advance to the JFL. But it's gonna be hard now. GROUP C Saurcos Fukui 1-0 Arterivo Wakayama Hannan University 0-1 FC Imabari Very interesting result from Saurcos, they didn't look as dominating in the Hokushinetsu league this year but they won an important one. Also I don't think it's already been mentioned- Sagawa Printing is folding at the end of the season, should clear up another spot in the JFL
Didn't know that, thanks for the heads up. If I got it correctly from the JFL release, they might not be folding completely, but voluntarily relegating to Kyoto league. I wonder whether the league will choose to promote three teams from the Regional leagues instead of two, or not relegate anyone and keep promotion at two.
Great result by Urayasu! Maybe we will have Kariya getting back to JFL after 6 years on regional leagues Imabari again is one of the favorite teams to climb to JFL!!
Day 2! Group A Nippon Steel Oita 0-2 Briobecca Urayasu Banditonce Kakogawa 4-0 Sapporo FC Briobecca 6, Banditonce 4, Nippon Steel 2, Sapporo FC 0 Sapporo FC is eliminated regardless of tomorrow's result. Nippon Steel Oita can get to second but can't win the group either. Briobecca Urayasu wins the group unless they lose in regular time against Banditonce Kakogawa; in which case, regardless of the other game's score, their opponents would win the group instead. Group B Rein Meer Aomori 5-1 FC Kariya Matsue City 2-0 FC Ganju Iwate Matsue City 5, Rein Meer 4, Kariya 3, Ganju 0 The messiest one. Matsue City wins the group if: they win in regular time against FC Kariya; they win PKs and Rein Meer doesn't win in regular time against Ganju; they lose PKs and Rein Meer loses (either after PKs or in regular time). If Matsue City wins PKs and Rein Meer Aomori wins against Ganju in regular time, or if Matsue City loses PKs and Rein Meer wins PKs, it's up to the goal difference between the two teams. Rein Meer Aomori wins the group if: they win against Ganju in regular time and Matsue City doesn't win against Kariya. It's worth noting that by winning their game in regular time Rein Meer Aomori are qualified regardless of their placement, as even if Matsue City wins its game they would be best second (there is no team in the other groups which can get to best second with 7 points) If Rein Meer Aomori wins PKs and FC Kariya wins in regular time, it would be up to the goal difference between the two teams. FC Kariya wins the group if they win in regular time against Matsue and Rein Meer loses against Ganju, either by PKs or in regular time. FC Ganju Iwate is just here for the experience and doesn't even have a shot at second place. Group C Saurcos Fukui 4-0 Hannan University Arterivo Wakayama 2-1 FC Imabari Saurcos 6, Arterivo & Imabari 3, Hannan 0 Saurcos Fukui wins the group if they don't lose against FC Imabari in regular time, in which case it would be up to the goal difference between the two teams. If Arterivo Wakayama winning in regular time against Hannan, then it would be up to the goal difference between the three of them! Hannan University can theoretically get second but there is no scenario where they can get promoted as best second with just three points, and are thus eliminated.
In JFL news, Kagoshima United have confirmed a place in the top 4 and should they pass J3 criteria will be in the 2016 J3. (via @GifuRichy on Twitter)
Final results GROUP A Nippon Steel Oita 4-2 Sapporo FC Banditonce Kakogawa 1-2 Briobecca Urayasu Briobecca Urayasu 9, Nippon Steel Oita 5, Banditonce Kakogawa 4, Sapporo FC 0 GROUP B Rein Meer Aomori 2-2 (pk 5-3) FC Ganju Iwate Matsue City 1-2 FC Kariya Rein Meer Aomori, FC Kariya 6, Matsue City 5, FC Ganju Iwate 1 GROUP C Saurcos Fukui 2-2 (pk 6-7) FC Imabari Arterivo Wakayama 0-3 Hannan University Saurcos Fukui 7, FC Imabari 5, Hannan University, Arterivo Wakayama 3 Briobecca Urayasu, Rein Meer Aomori, FC Kariya and Saurcos Fukui qualify for the final phase of the tournament, which will be held in two weeks.
Kagoshima is officially in J3. Still no news on promotion/relegation between JFL and Regional Leagues though. The league has lost two teams so they can do without relegation at all—or they can choose to relegate Tochigi Uva and promote three teams from the playoffs.
Not yet decided; the final playoff round will start on Saturday. Teams who made it to the final are: Briobecca Urayasu Saurcos Fukui FC Kariya Reinmeer Aomori I'd put my money on Briobecca and Saurocs. Both will make solid J3 teams in the near future.
The similarities with 2012 are striking... 17 teams, a Kyushu-based team promoted, the Sagawa backed team folding and Tochigi Uva in last place. In 2012 they chose to promote the first two teams from the final playoff round, with Uva playing a playoff game against third-placed Norbritz Hokkaido. For weather reasons, both games were held in Tochigi and the away goal rule ended up not being applied. Otherwise, Tochigi would've won the series for an away goal... scored at home playing against a guest side. The series led to a penalty shootout, which Tochigi won.
I can't believe FC Ganju Iwate scored 200+ goals in the last two seasons and they won't be in JFL again.
The main factors I can think of: - Tohoku is not exactly the most competitive league. If you compare it to Kanto or Kansai there has always been a big gap between the future/wannabe pros (Grulla, Fukushima United, Vanraure) and the amateur base (Akita Cambiare, Morioka Zebra, FC Primero, Shiogama Wiese). This year only Cobaltore and Rein Meer could somewhat match Ganju's level, the other teams being way below thus allowing Ganju's very high scores. - Ganju was founded from parts of Grulla Morioka's management who were in contrast with the rest of the club because of its difficulty in going further than the Regional Leagues. Now that Grulla is in J3, they may have more difficulty attracting sponsors/fans to them
Briobecca Urayasu 2-0 Saurcos Fukui FC Kariya 1-3 Rein Meer Aomori Kariya in a tough spot now. Getting points vs Urayasu will be hard for everyone, so the other three teams will have to fight hard for the remaining spot... and considering Saurcos is probably stronger than Rein Meer, they almost need a miracle to advance now.