The question isn't whether Donovan could have made $1M in Europe (I assume he could at least for the next 2-3 years) but whether he would have chosen ~ $450K in LA vs. $1M in Eindhoven. IMO, he would have come home for $450K. As it is, he cost $1M in transfer fees and then ~ $1M for 5 years in salary. Or 5 Amado Guevaras. His non-soccer appeal is less certain. He's a metrosexual type, fine to have on a team next to a Roy Keane or an Eric Cantona type, who can be role models for the blood-thirsty males, with Landon to please the same fans who like boy bands and Christina Aguilera. IMO, that works on teams with the already existing high profile. As a main attraction, he seems a bit too manufactured like the abovementioned boy bands. Maybe he'd be a popular Indy/CART/Formula 1 car racer, where pretty types can get hordes of girls after them. But most popular soccer players are far grittier fellows. Even Posh Boy.
I can see your point, but really, neither you nor I can come up with any reasonable certainty about Donovan's "reserve price". You say it was $450k, but why? Why not $250? Or $650k? Unless you can come up with a very solid reason for that specific price, when you negotiate, you'll get shredded. I think you've got to assume that Landon's 900k is the result of a reasonable negotiation, with give-and-take from both sides. The fact that comparable players may make similar money elsewhere isn't conclusive of anything, as you say, but it does tend to show that a real negotiation happened. We know Donovan wanted to come back. We also know he's worth more to MLS as a marquee player than in Europe (call it the McBride effect). You notice in the salary list how many apparently unmarketable players seem to get relatively large top-ups from marketing and other bonuses? I think there's more money, at least at player level, in the marketing of soccer than I (and many here) thought. It may not be a major revenue stream for the league, but an extra $100k for a player's salary makes a big difference.
How do you think it plays out though? MLS: we think you'll come home for $450k. BJ: but I can make $1.2 million elsewhere. MLS: but you're damaged goods they won't pay you more than $700k. BJ: but I am worth more to you than I am to them, so pay up be-yotch. Aren't both points important information to the negotiation? One of them doesn't automatically trump the other.
I don't think it was reasonable in terms of a standard negotiating process. AEG wanted him. He knew that. His agent knew that. And they used that knowledge to jack up the price. It's like when you see a nice house that you really love, you still don't want your wife to start sighing, "And, honey, we can put the nursery right here." In order to get a good bargain, you'd want her to say, "Is this where Batman lives?" In other words, it's not enough to buy the home that you want. To call something a bargain, you want to get the best $/sq. ft. deal in the neighborhood. Paying $500 per foot where everyone else is paying $350 is just not prudent ... even if you agree with your wife's emotions 100%.
3 goals in the last 2 games (and I think 6 in his last 4)-- yeah, he's definitely past it. Face it-- with the possible exception of EJ, or GAM, or whatever we're calling him on this thread-- Donovan is our best player. I don't think he should captain our team between now and the next World Cup, but he's our best player. And he's good. Very, very good. He plays on the energy he gets from the USMNT, he loves Cali, and he's got a beautiful girlfriend, and he's a bit of a prima donna. But he's still very, very good. Just read the recent article from Grant Wahl on CNNSI.com in which he interviews Beckenbauer-- he thinks that Donovan just went to the wrong team-- he would love to see Donovan at Bayern Munich. You don't get Beckenbauer talking about you like that unless you're just that good.
OK-- but then aren't we back to deciding what a jacked up price is? You? You're just pulling numbers out of the air. I don't think you've said anything unreasonable at all, but if Landon's agent is saying: "hey, we see players of Donovan's caliber making $1m+ in Europe", if your response is "oh yeah? Well our impression is that he'll play here for $450k", then I can guarantee that that salary figure is going to end up a lot closer to the $1m than the $450k because, well, it's actually based on something. Yes, we ALL understand that-- Donovan's position wasn't the strongest. But why do you think it's such a trump card that it completely trumps the market for such players? Of course he should have gone at a discount-- but a discount of 50%? (1) Everyone else is paying $500 per foot or more (hence the discussion of other players of Donovan's caliber can make) (2) Who said Donovan's a bargain? Maybe he's a house in a great location but located on cliff where there have been mudslides-- you'll certainly get him at a discount, but he's still going to cost you.
Yeah, but Beckenbauer's washed up too. Honestly, if you want to point to all those goals against 5th tier opposition, it ought to be pointed out that Donovan now sits on the bench for the US team-- another clue to his decline.
If you read between the lines, you sort of see why AEG jumped at this chance, "Donovan could have gone to Holland for $1M and so we matched." Well, I, having noticed the primary motivation behind Donovan's decision, would have asked for the 50% discount and I would have been willing to let the deal go, if the amount was not agreed to. But Leiweke was so afraid of Vergara overshadowing with the mighty Chivas, he felt the need to go grab a name. That's fine and dandy, except now every 4 goal scorer will demand $900K. If you pay one, you have to pay the others. But that's the Eredivisie and Bundesliga neighborhood. MLS is on a different budget. It can meet the asking price up to a point and then it has to let the deal walk. Well, I want a bargain, gosh darn it. At least, I want value. If I can get 25 points out of a $250,000 player, guess what I want out of someone making $1M?
I see your point about negotiations but your example argument is just as arbitrary - you just pick MLS caving in... and I said MLS could have probably gotten Landon to cave in. Landon also had the pressure of knowing that staying at BL would meant he value diminishing AND what price do you put on happiness... MLS could have said, "Fine... you get $1 million in Europe but here we're only going to pay you $750,000 - it's all we can afford... and we both know you'll make more here in the US off endorsements - let that make up the difference..." I agree with you that it's impossible to know how the negotiation could have gone, but I personally feel that they could have made Landon sweat a little... they just made it really easy for him to come back.
Actually, that was my point... Repeating "Donovan wanted to come home" doesn't really do anything for the argument. Bingo. You believe MLS caved because you think $900k is too much to pay for Donovan. But as far as any of us can tell, $900k is actually pretty much in the ballpark for a player of his character. So, given that the negotiating points cut both ways, why are you so certain that MLS got taken to the woodshed? I'll take it a step further-- we have no idea how the negotiations actually did go. If they sat and negotiated for a few days, I'm sure each side was sweating...
But here's what I don't get about your (and others') position: do you really think MLS didn't use Donovan's "primary motivation" in the negoations? Why do you assume it didn't already play a role in the negotiated amount? All you're basing this on is your impressions of what is reasonable for Donovan, which however reasonable they seem to me, don't count for jack-- and I say that with a good deal of respect for your position.
Because we sat on the house HE wanted to be in - he already had left MLS, the league had already dealt with not having him in the league... he wanted to come back, correct? Because Landon had more to lose - the league hasn't gained anything materially (i.e. significant attendance boost or marketing revenue) by him coming... would MLS have been significantly worse off from a business perspective had he not come? But MLS didn't need to - what could Landon do for "brinksmanship"... "I won't come back to my mom and girlfriend... if you don't pay me, I promise I'll pull the trigger on my career... you'll be sorry... you'll see." I think MLS was kind to him because they have a tendency to oversensationalize the impact of one player on the league. For example, EJ didn't leave MLS, but he hasn't been playing either as much either (he's been injured) - did attendance go up or down? either way? has FCD been losing? Oddly, in many markets it doesn't seem to matter if teams win or lose, who they put on the field... the same amount of people show up. Go figure. If I'm MLS, I give him a big haircut in pay and tell him... "look, we're on a budget, but we'd love for you to come play"... I would also have taken the $4-5 million they (Benfica? Porto?) offered for EJ...
You're stating elements of the negotiation that affect the valuation-- but not saying a single thing about what a good baseline for what the valuation should be. If your point was that, given MLS's economics and the negligible effect players seem to have on attendance in the long-term, Donovan's value is much too high, I'd agree that's a start, but still think that MLS suits know alot more about the business side. I just feel like you're assuming that everyone at MLS is an idiot based on certain ethereal perceptions of what players are worth, when you don't have the business case in front of you. As I keep pointing out, I don't think anything you guys are saying is ridiculous-- it's just that I'd tend to think reasonable people are negotiating these deals and so other considerations win out.
I think you should also factor in that MLS is not nearly as concerned about a player's performance-salary ratio as his fan draw-salary ratio. Sometimes the two are closely linked, sometimes not so much.
Well, roughly, a logical chain would go like this - a player X is hypothetically worth N amount. But, due to exigency, he is willing to accept less if his other wants/needs are met. The question is the extent of the value that is placed on the player's other wants. If the final price is equal to his original asking price, then it's zero or close to it. He did not suffer from his contrary desires. He got his cake and ate it too. The only way it would not have been so would be if the value of all his wants - playing at home, close to his family/dogs/girlfriend - was really valueless to him and his claims to such were all a ruse. But if they were not, then the other point of view has to be that AEG was taken.
But, as others point out, it's tough to say that Donovan or EJ alone draw that many fans. But Rommul had an interesting idea a few weeks back that essentially, a league had to reach a certain minimum standard of play for many people to bother watching-- I didn't really agree with him in that context, but it could explain that MLS needs a certain amount of "star power" for 15k to show up to games-- even if the absence of one particular star seems to have no effect on attendance.
But we don't know what "N" is. Around 1m euro seems like a reasonable guess to me and is based on a few other salaries out there, but I admit it's still a guess. But that would mean Landon paid roughly $200-$300k for the privilege of playing in the US. Even if it's only a 10% discount, not many people are lining up to take 10% hits off their salary...
There's where I don't agree with you. Not for the Galaxy. The attendance number is rather trivial in LA, because the key is a) the very expensive seats - one of these is worth twenty GA seats. b) the in-game advertisements As to whatever they get from Donovan, chances are they haven't fully realized it yet, due to Landon's having been acquired after the season started.
Forgive me for jumping in late, but has anyone realized that there is a link to an Excel spreadsheet with every player's salary on the NYT Soccer page? Total player pay by team, in millions: CHI $2.245 (3rd) Chivas $1.802 (7th) C-Bus $1.652 (9th) Colorado $1.500 (11th) Dallas $2.609 (2nd) DC $2.176 (4th) KC $1.770 (8th) LA $2.754 (1st) NE $1.461 (12th) MET $1.857 (6th) RSL $2.092 (5th) SJ $1.651 (10th) And apparently, the league is still paying Clint Baumstark.
For the life of me, I can't figure why those don't fall under the parameters of "reasonable negotiation." aosthed is positing the opposite side of that coin--that AEG semi-intentionally paid enough to where that knowledge and use of bargaining chips would never even come into play. It's one thing to say that AEG got out-negotiated on the margins (which is what you're implying)--and while it's about equally easily true as not, we still have no real evidence of this--it's quite another to say there wasn't a negotiation (which is what aosthed is). I see the former of the two as a minor point. ---------------------- Right. And you don't see people taking 50% paycuts every day. Whereas you do, every day, hear professional athletes say (albeit in a different context) that it "wasn't about the money"--right after they followed the money.
Justine Mapp? Which would explain alot... Also Nick Besagno's got a great agent at $86k total, with $36k of that coming from "bonus". Again, at some point last year, the "bonus" portion of player salaries was explained, in part, as payment for "marketing". If a guy that's played less than 90 minutes of MLS ball is getting over a third of his salary from this "bonus", it ought to make some of you question just how important a player's marketability is to the league.
We were to busy arguing ideological propositions All I have to say is "wow." I think I count 9 guys who would be due for a raise if they won the championship this year. They'd feel the cold steel of cap hell pretty quick.