Mitsotakis is in hot water and frankly he ought to be. I think he will survive, but it comes at a cost of his ability to govern more effectively going forward. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/opinion/greece-mitsotakis-predator-spyware.html
There probably won't be an East Med pipeline with the way things are going. https://themedialine.org/top-stories/turkey-greece-tensions-could-deepen-european-energy-crisis/
https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/09/01/erdogans-delusions-foreign-powers/ A lot of the paranoia from Turkey today is a consequence of US policy failures throughout MENA and through the failed coup of the Gulenists. It's not entirely unfounded, but Erdogan is much to given to Islamism and ideas of grandeur. His support for MB, Palestine, and Syrian jihadis came back to bite him. He brings a lot of this upon himself. It's his decision if he wants to go down this route and drag his fellow Turks with him, but if the US wants to surround Russia and bring Russia to it's knees, what chance does Turkey have in the end following that same path? Putin at least has nukes. Iran and Venezuela should serve to him as cautionary examples of the price Turkey will pay in the end. That's where this path leads Turkey. Things will not reach the end they did in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan, but they could if he goes to war with Greece.
More tough talk from Erdogan, more talk of invasion. https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1...-erdogan-ups-rhetoric-on-greece-amid-tensions https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkish-leader-erdogan-ups-rhetoric-134926288.html September is the month likeliest to witness a military incursion of any sort from Turkey against Greece.
Greece warns another European war could be on the horizon as Turkey hints at the possibility of an invasion https://www.businessinsider.com/gre...ict-possible-amid-tensions-with-turkey-2022-9
War between Azerbaijan and Armenia seems to be breaking out: Breaking: Azerbaijani Armed Forces have launched military offensive against Armenian positions in Armenia proper. Intensive shelling in Goris, Sotk and Jermuk starting at approx. 12:05 a.m. on September 13. Updates to follow.— EVN Report (@evn_report) September 12, 2022
Russia has a military base in Armenia and those forces partake in a peace keeping mission in what is known by international law as Nagorno-Karabakh (what Armenia recognizes as Artsakh).
Could Greece and Turkey Go to War? The Answer Is Yes By Michael Rubin https://www.aei.org/op-eds/could-greece-and-turkey-go-to-war-the-answer-is-yes/ The article is a little biased towards us, but the statements are valid. The only thing I can add is Erdogan and Turkey have become paranoid, but that paranoia is not based on fantasy. Russia and China justifiably share the same paranoia and unfortunately possess similarly flawed attitudes. IMO Turkey will not fully hitch their wagon with Russia and China. They will continue playing off the powers and seek to build themselves up as a major player, especially as it relates to Eurasia and North Africa, where they seek to become the main power broker. Given what is happening in Ukraine, I don't think we will see a war for the time being, but a war is possible even at this juncture. I suspect Erdogan will ride out another election in 2023. He will see how things play out with the Russians in Ukraine before he makes a decision to invade Greece. I believe he will look to exploit a moment when the others powers are more distracted. Also, I don't think the economy in Turkey is in such dire straits that the public would fully turn on Erdogan yet, but the conditions have it made very difficult for their people. By and large the average Turk is willing to sacrifice their cost of living to a great degree if it means advancing their national interests long term. This is true of Russians and Chinese. Greece cannot accept vassalage to Turkey. As such, I do think war may eventually come. There is a window to until 2028-2030, when Greece is scheduled to receive F-35s, that Turkey may act. I think even my country may be the one to attack first. A pre-emptive attack may be necessary if it becomes all too evident Turkey will invade. Bear in mind Erdogan's recent comment. He has claimed Turkey may suddenly invade one night, so I don't see why Greece should limit her options to getting punched in the face first. I agree the president has maybe as little as a year to balance things out between our countries and help prevent the outbreak of war between us. Letting things slide and reacting after the fact is not good enough, but I feel so far that has been how things are being handled.
Armenia says 49 soldiers killed in clashes with Azerbaijan (CNBC headline) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/armenias-pm-says-49-soldiers-died-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan.html The Azeris claims losses too, but they didn't specify. Key point of contention: I'm trying to wrap my head around why Armenia would attack Azerbaijan like the Azeris claim. It seems unreasonable to me that Armenia would escalate like this without cause. It's clear the Azeris tried to sneak into Armenia proper. I suspect things escalated from there. The Azeris crossed into Armenia because they were responding to Armenia's aggressive posturing with their border positioning. The problem seems to be that Azerbaijan quite literally crossed the line themselves. The US has stated Russia might be looking to stir the pot, but the US has not definitively pointed that finger at Russia for this. Did Armenia get Russian backing to carry out this attack? The idea this will serve as a useful purpose for Russia seems unlikely to me. It's more like another headache for them if anything. Another fire that has to be put out while they got a much bigger fire to look after in Ukraine. IMO there is no advantage to anyone, not even Armenia or Azerbaijan, to see a restart of these hostilities. This is a clusterf*ck owed to a miscalculation on Azerbaijan's part if I had to make an educated guess. Frankly, it has to be stated that the US made a mistake giving military aid to the Azeris despite the problems this clearly posed after the 2020 war between these countries. Seeing how hostilities have restarted and how there is now talk of war again, this will look bad on the US. It now looks as if Biden added fuel to this fire.
More war talk, this time from Turkey's parliamentary speaker during his visit in Malta. https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1193213/turkish-parliament-speaker-calls-greece-a-national-threat/
We could be nearing a major turning point in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. https://tass.com/politics/1505847 Putin postponed a yearly meeting with his defense leadership. This meeting is usually held in May, so he's been postponing it for awhile. I believe he is delaying to allow more time to process Russia's options, as he wants to be more sure of his final decision, but it's possible this same meeting may see his generals decide he needs to step down. I think a coup is a risky and messy affair. I think the Russians feel like they are fighting a war against the West, not just Ukraine. I think for many of these generals, they are patriotic and see this as an existential war for Russia. They might be willing to back him to the hilt if they believe in their capabilities to wage nuclear war and that the West will blink. In saying that, these generals may doubt Russia's capability to wage a nuclear war effectively and may fear the cost of it should the West not blink, which would be reason enough to quit now while they're ahead. They could decide on a coup if they feel this way. Facts are, the war has not gone well for Russia. They have paid a lot Russian blood and Putin takes responsibility for this decision to invade Ukraine. Also, Russia is running low on options and doesn't have any that look any good. One option, however, appears to be the possibility of Russia officially annexing Ukrainian territory they now occupy, which provides two solutions. This comes from a retired US general: https://www.businessinsider.com/for...-putin-nukes-ukraine-retakes-territory-2022-9 The question becomes, will Russia's generals support Putin if this leads to nuclear war? Or will his generals depose of him before it gets to that point? I think this meeting will be very important in making that call.
https://www.dw.com/en/azerbaijan-has-used-russias-weakness-in-ukraine-expert-says/a-63121660 They went a little further than they intended. A miscalculation on their part IMO.
Polls show majority of Turks do not view Greece as an enemy. https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1...-against-greece-not-paying-off-inside-turkey/ I don't disagree with Turkey's view that Greece is being used as a counter weight by the US against Turkish ambitions, but IMO Turkey has to fall more in line with US/EU agenda if they want a share of the resources in the East Med. Otherwise if they seek an independent path or hitch their wagons more with Russia and China, they will not be allowed to hold this sort of leverage over Greece and EU, by extension their US partner.
Davutoglu pointing out the issue Turkey faces with it's rhetoric under Erdogan and the eventually reality of her weakened position once Greece has F-35s: https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/09/16/turkey-davutoglu-erdogan/
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/15/nancy-pelosi-is-going-to-armenia-00056947 Good. Pelosi is rounding her career off with a real legacy.
Putin faces toughest challenge yet as Russian leader https://thehill.com/policy/internat...ces-toughest-challenge-yet-as-russian-leader/ Not all that new to me, but a good, balanced briefer no less and useful for later reference.
I wish we had leaders in Greece who spoke up more and addressed Turkish fears and paranoias for what they are, fears and paranoias. The door is open to Turkey, but their ambitions cannot come at the expense of the West and leave Greece suffering the same kind of vassalage Turkey fears she will suffer. Turkey's vice-president voicing the same sentiments Erdogan has expressed, but in a more level headed way and with less of the tough rhetoric: https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/09/17/numan-kurtulmus-greece-ukraine/ IMO naive of Turkey to make this argument. If Erdogan wants to invade Greece, it will probably lead to breakaway states within Turkey, likely a Kurdish state and a European oriented, much less Islamic Turkish state made up of the parts of Turkey that actually matter. Greece won't get anything other than maybe a unification with Cyprus, if even that because Cyprus holds value as an independent nation (tax haven, etc). Erdogan and his allies will be left with the rump state he fears most, an Islamic backwater where ISIS commanders can hide out. An invasion of Greece will be his ruin and we will all suffer dead for nothing. Erdogan has to face reality, much like how Davutoglu pointed out. It doesn't pay for Turkey to turn as far as he has against the West and to treat Greece and other neighboring countries like vassals. His neo-Ottoman vision and a restoration of an Islamic caliphate or union is a fantasy. He has to see the failed coup for what it really was, an act of desperation from a US built fallback network built in the Cold War to combat the potential of a Soviet takeover that outlived it's purpose and is finally gone, not a concerted effort by the West to keep Turkey under her thumb. He and the Turks who think like him need to wake up.
A report on China's growing threat to US-led world order was released by a think tank chaired by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt: https://www.pcmag.com/news/former-g...warns-china-could-cripple-us-military-economy The report concludes that the years between 2025-2030 will be a critical period in which China could succeed the US. To counter, the report states US must find ways to; innovate and build to keep pace, bring back manufacturing, govern AI without too much red tape, keep the internet secure and open, adopt a new military doctrine known as "Offset-X," and digitally enhance US intelligence gathering. What's left out: the US always holds the option of going to war with China before she can establish a hegemony. Hopefully saner minds prevail and the world doesn't go to shit. I don't really have an issue with China leading the AI revolution if they were a freer country, but for a country that is so draconian to it's own people to become the world's most powerful country, that's a scary proposition.
Russia moves to formally annex swathes of Ukraine https://news.yahoo.com/medvedev-says-moscow-backed-separatists-071804364.html Putin speech rescheduled 8 am in Moscow That's 0500 GM, 6 am in London or 1 am in New York https://www.forexlive.com/news/putin-speech-rescheduled-8-am-in-moscow-20220920/
Putin drafts up to 300,000 reservists, backs annexation amid war losses https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/21/putin-speech-annexation-ukraine-russia/ He plans to formally recognize those parts they now hold as Russian territory, meaning any further attacks on those territories constitutes an attack on Russia proper, which Russia could use as a basis to launch nuclear attacks on the West. Erdogan Says Finding 'Dignified Way Out' For Both Sides Could End War In Ukraine https://www.rferl.org/a/erdogan-says-russia-ukraine-agree-to-swap-200-prisoners/32042954.html Erdogan claims that during his "very extensive discussions" with Putin that the Russian leader "is willing to end this as soon as possible." Erdogan made the case that any solution should see Russia return the invaded territories to Ukraine. Ironic considering Turkey's occupation of Cyprus (now nearing 50 years) and Turkey's almost daily threats of invading Greece.
Where is the outrage? https://oc-media.org/footage-appears-to-show-desecration-of-female-armenian-soldier/
Looks like Putin is being backed by his generals to support a nuclear war if necessary. Now the West has to face the fact Putin isn't going anywhere. An Off-Ramp for Putin Is Repugnant But Necessary https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-22/an-off-ramp-for-putin-repugnant-but-necessary A Decision Tree for Biden If Putin Goes Nuclear https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...-a-guide-to-how-biden-might-decide-to-respond I see things settling into a kind of stalemate until things reheat again next year probably. Russia will formalize their claim on the territories they hold now as Russia proper. The West will hesitate to support attacks on these territories. They will play the waiting game, hoping the Russian economy and war fatigue will turn the tide against Putin (IMO the Russians are by and large willing to make sacrifices and Putin isn't alone in thinking Russia must not cave to the West, it's a position more widely held than most seem willing to accept). I don't think there will be a settlement reached anytime soon. There is a real prospect of World War and it could be around the corner. Likely window is 2025-2030. China could emerge as world's most powerful nation and the challenge for the US and West is during that window.
Macron warns of 'crisis of democracies,' including in US, in exclusive US interview https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/politics/emmanuel-macron-democracy-threats/index.html