NSR Greece political thread

Discussion in 'Greece & Cyprus' started by SF19, Nov 20, 2020.

  1. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/11/19/turkish-general-greece-f-35/

    GCT is hardly an impartial source, but it's still a good article that I think balances the former Turkish general's condescending language towards Greece.

    I'm not one to mince words. The reality is Greece has had a reeling economy for years and her military has been in disrepair as a result. The Turks think they hold stronger cards to take Kastellorizo and other islands, which would allow them to lay greater claim to the East Med. This has been a goal of Turkey's to establish her regional hegemony and ensure her own independence from foreign interference. Turkey's goal would reduce other countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Greece, to vassalage, while springing upon Israel another threat that is potentially worse than Iran.

    It's important to stress that Turkey needs a pretext for war with Greece in order to muddy the waters to legitimize her claims because if the matter is taken to an international court like The Hague, Greece's claims will hold better than Turkey's, especially in the Aegean where Turkey stands to lose her grounds for what currently passes as her casus belli against Greece. It's Turkey's goal to create justification for a war with Greece or to at least bully Greece into accepting her claims with her threats of war (Greece will not be cowed by threats of war).

    Despite these realities faced by Greece, Turkey realizes their gambit in the Mediterranean and Aegean will be dead on arrival if Greece gets the F-35s. Turkey with their s-400 anti-aircraft missile defense systems will be left for sitting ducks and they know it, even if they refuse to admit it.

    Once this sale takes place, Erdogan's grip on his country will also come in for a big reality check. For all his talk of grandeur, Turkey's failing economy and incapabilities against Greek F-35s will leave Erdogan in a deep hole from which he can't dig himself out from. The Turks have burnt their bridge with France and their financial blackmail on Spain and Italy, as well as their commercial ties to Germany can only last for so long before the tide turns on them completely. Either Turkey rejects Erdogan or she seals her fate as another Iran or Venezuela.

    This sale will give Greece enough of an advantage militarily to dissuade Turkey from invading Greek islands and pulling Greece into a war over natural gas reserves in the eastern parts of the Mediterranean sea.

    We know the US will fast track this sale because the US doesn't even hide her frustration anymore with Erdogan. This was made most evident with Pompeo's visit with the patriarch of the Greek orthodox church in Istanbul. He snubbed his Turkish counterparts. It was a not so subtle jab at Erdogan who has steadily lost stock with Trump. The incoming Biden administration will be no different, as evidenced by Biden's comments to the New York Times in December of last year.

    I don't expect the kind of crippling sanctions on Turkey that have been used against Iran (incidentally, those sanctions against Iran will likely be pulled back with Biden in office once they sign Iran back on to another JCPOA deal), since such a move would only embolden Erdogan's grip on Turkey; however, as Turkey turns against the West, it may be enough to convince the Turkish public that Erdogan is leading Turkey down a path similar to that of Venezuela and Iran. If Turkey doesn't change course, I think inevitably everything Erdogan fears about foreign interference and the development of a Kurdish state will become an even starker reality.
     
  2. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    Turkey continues to thrash about. They seek a fog of war incident and to throw into question Greece's sovereignty. Their sinking currency and economy raises real possibilities of war. The EU has to take a firmer stance come the summit December 10th and 11th. A failure to set red lines could invite catastrophe.
     
  3. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/508000-turkey-drone-swarms-war/

    By the time Turkey began cooperating with Azerbaijan against Armenia in September 2020, Turkish drone warfare had reached its zenith, and the outcome in Nagorno-Karabakh was all but assured. One of the main lessons drawn from the Turkish drone experiences in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh is that these conflicts were not fought against so-called “poor countries.”

    Rather, the Turks were facing off against well-equipped and well-trained forces operating equipment which closely parallels that found in most small- and medium-sized European countries. Indeed, in all three conflicts, Turkey was facing off against some of the best anti-aircraft missile defenses produced by Russia. The reality is that most nations, if confronted by a Turkish “drone swarm,” would not fare well.

    ...

    The face of modern warfare has been forever altered, and those nations that are not prepared or equipped to fight in a battlefield where drone technology is fully incorporated in every aspect of the fight can expect outcomes similar to that of Armenia: severe losses of men and equipment, defeat, humiliation and the likely loss of their territory. This is the reality of modern warfare which, as Gustav Gressel notes, should make any nation not fully vested in drone technology “think – and worry.”

    This is the one thing that has me concerned, but once we get the F-35s we will be at a complete advantage.
     
  4. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    Iran has semi-officially alleged Israel killed Fakhrizadeh, a physicist believed to be leading the feasibility of Iran's nuclear program that ended in 2003, by using a remote electronic device, which I take to mean a drone.
     
  5. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c98b96-29de-11eb-9c21-3cc501d0981f_story.html

    More on Turkish drones and their effectiveness to date, but also the difficulty Erdogan has had in translating that into meaningful political gain.

    The conflict flared in September, marking the collapse of a decades-long peace process. Azerbaijan, with Turkey’s support, retook swaths of territory it had lost in the 1988-1994 war over the region. It used Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli kamikaze drones to overwhelm Armenia’s defenses. One estimate tallied Armenian losses of nearly 200 tanks, 90 armored vehicles and 182 artillery pieces.

    Azerbaijan’s military gains, which included about 40 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh, appeared to hand Turkey another strategic victory.

    Deaths of Syrian mercenaries show how Turkey, Russia could get sucked into Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

    But Russia, which has jostled with Turkey for regional supremacy, also benefited, by negotiating a cease-fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan that elevated Moscow’s role as a power broker. After the peace deal was signed, Russia thwarted a Turkish attempt to send its own peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh.

    In other places, too, Erdogan’s government has struggled to turn battlefield successes to its strategic advantage.

    In Syria, the Idlib cease-fire staved off an imminent humanitarian disaster but did nothing to solve the underlying tensions in the province, which Syria and its Russian backers are determined to recapture from Syrian rebel forces that control it.

    In Libya, Lacher said, it is extremely unlikely that the Turks will be able during peace negotiations to secure a settlement “that legitimizes their interests and cements their presence.” He added, “It’s quite difficult to convert that military victory into political gain.”
     
  6. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...-priced-m1117-guardians-heading-greece-173625

    Over the summer the U.S. Congress approved the sale of 1,200 used 4x4 M1117 Guardian Armored Security Vehicles (ASV) at what can only be described as a truly discounted price, and those vehicles could soon be headed to Greece. The ASVs had been used by U.S. Army military police units, and were offered to Greece for around 70,000 euros ($83,700) each—which is a considerable savings for cash-strapped Athens, as the vehicles originally cost $800,000 a piece to produce.

    However, the sale price to the Greek military didn’t include the platform’s armaments, so Athens will have to supply its own machine guns and grenade launchers. Yet, even in used condition and without armaments the M1117 could be just what the Greek military needs—an affordable platform with plenty of spare parts to ensure that the Guardians will remain operational for years, even decades, to come.'
     
  7. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    I'm not sure what either side hopes to accomplish with these talks. This is nothing more than a show of face. Erdogan continues to use threats of military force against Greece to get what he wants and Greece can only stand fast against those threats.

    https://greece.greekreporter.com/2021/01/13/are-greece-turkey-talks-doomed-to-fail/

     

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