NSR Greece political thread

Discussion in 'Greece & Cyprus' started by SF19, Nov 20, 2020 at 10:39 AM.

  1. SF19

    SF19 Member

    Jun 8, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    Greece
    https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/11/19/turkish-general-greece-f-35/

    GCT is hardly an impartial source, but it's still a good article that I think balances the former Turkish general's condescending language towards Greece.

    I'm not one to mince words. The reality is Greece has had a reeling economy for years and her military has been in disrepair as a result. The Turks think they hold stronger cards to take Kastellorizo and other islands, which would allow them to lay greater claim to the East Med. This has been a goal of Turkey's to establish her regional hegemony and ensure her own independence from foreign interference. Turkey's goal would reduce other countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Greece, to vassalage, while springing upon Israel another threat that is potentially worse than Iran.

    It's important to stress that Turkey needs a pretext for war with Greece in order to muddy the waters to legitimize her claims because if the matter is taken to an international court like The Hague, Greece's claims will hold better than Turkey's, especially in the Aegean where Turkey stands to lose her grounds for what currently passes as her casus belli against Greece. It's Turkey's goal to create justification for a war with Greece or to at least bully Greece into accepting her claims with her threats of war (Greece will not be cowed by threats of war).

    Despite these realities faced by Greece, Turkey realizes their gambit in the Mediterranean and Aegean will be dead on arrival if Greece gets the F-35s. Turkey with their s-400 anti-aircraft missile defense systems will be left for sitting ducks and they know it, even if they refuse to admit it.

    Once this sale takes place, Erdogan's grip on his country will also come in for a big reality check. For all his talk of grandeur, Turkey's failing economy and incapabilities against Greek F-35s will leave Erdogan in a deep hole from which he can't dig himself out from. The Turks have burnt their bridge with France and their financial blackmail on Spain and Italy, as well as their commercial ties to Germany can only last for so long before the tide turns on them completely. Either Turkey rejects Erdogan or she seals her fate as another Iran or Venezuela.

    This sale will give Greece enough of an advantage militarily to dissuade Turkey from invading Greek islands and pulling Greece into a war over natural gas reserves in the eastern parts of the Mediterranean sea.

    We know the US will fast track this sale because the US doesn't even hide her frustration anymore with Erdogan. This was made most evident with Pompeo's visit with the patriarch of the Greek orthodox church in Istanbul. He snubbed his Turkish counterparts. It was a not so subtle jab at Erdogan who has steadily lost stock with Trump. The incoming Biden administration will be no different, as evidenced by Biden's comments to the New York Times in December of last year.

    I don't expect the kind of crippling sanctions on Turkey that have been used against Iran (incidentally, those sanctions against Iran will likely be pulled back with Biden in office once they sign Iran back on to another JCPOA deal), since such a move would only embolden Erdogan's grip on Turkey; however, as Turkey turns against the West, it may be enough to convince the Turkish public that Erdogan is leading Turkey down a path similar to that of Venezuela and Iran. If Turkey doesn't change course, I think inevitably everything Erdogan fears about foreign interference and the development of a Kurdish state will become an even starker reality.
     

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