NFL - Week 13

Get your picks in early. Two games tomorrow!

 

I'm a little late to the game today. Another Wednesday-before-Thanksgiving parties to remember...

Anyway, it's 13-7 Lions at halftime...

Still gotta go with the Pack to come back in this one. Favre hasn't looked too good and the Lions' D is playing their typical inspired game on Thanksgiving. And still it's only a 6 point game. Think Favre will be able to muster up just enough offense to win this one 24-23 in a thriller...

Miami and Dallas have a little history on Thanksgiving. Dallas crushed Miami the last time they played on T-Day when Jimmy Johnson coached his first game back in Dallas as Miami's coach. But the game most of you may remember was on Thanksgiving in 1993 (I think) when Miami went into Dallas and played in an unlikely snowstorm that blanketed the field in white for most of the game.
Miami was down by one or two points late and was going for the winning field goal. Dallas blocked it and it seemed the game was over. Guys were hugging and some even headed to the locker room. But Leon Lett chased after the blocked kick, apparently thinking that it was a live ball or something, and tried to recover it inside his own 10 yard line. Predictably he couldn't get a handle on it, but by touching it he made the ball live again and this time Miami recovered it. Stoyanovich came out for another attempt, and when Dallas called timeout to ice him (as if that needed to be done on this day), it actually allowed him and his holder to clear the snow away from kicking spot (shades of the snow plow game in New England) and this time he was able to make the kick as the clock expired. I've heard that game called the "Lett it Be" game. Now THAT's funny.
I'm sure we'll see that infamous play a couple times during today's game. Poor Leon Lett. Two of the most famous boneheaded plays ever were committed by him and both get replayed over and over as the years pass. Gotta love it...

As for my pick, well I guess it's Miami's turn.
Don't know what freaky events will transpire, but I love how Ricky Williams has come alive in recent weeks and think he can continue it even against Dallas' tough defense. Miami wins in a slobberknocker...

 

I've always loved that one, too. Both players' attitudes towards the game were summed up in that one play...

On to this weekend's picks:

Arizona over Chicago. A Train is out, and Kordell is still Kordell. A healthy Shipp should be able to run all over the Bears' defense, and don't think that Kordell can repeat last week's heroics.

Houston over Atlanta. A bit of reverse psychology since I need a big game out of now-full-time starter Duckett in my fantasy league. Atlanta's been playing teams tough, but can't seem to put them away. This time I think Houston gets the lead early and stays there.

Buffalo over NYG. Both offenses sputtering, but Buffalo's defense has been solid for most of the year. Taking the Bills in another ugly one.

Cincinnati over Pitt. Saw the Bengals in person last weekend. Their offense is big time, and their defense bends but doesn't break. I think they're going to win the North, and if they do it'll be because of winning games like this one in Pittsburgh.

St. Louis over Minnesota. Vikes got a reprieve when Green Bay couldn't take care of business in Detroit. Don't know if their defense can stop the Rams unless Bulger has another crappy game on his own. As poorly as they've played, the Vikings can still afford to lose this one and win their division. The Rams are more balanced and are playing at home, which should be the difference.

Indy over New England. Bellichick may gameplan his ass off against the Colts, but the Pats are still too one dimensional (no running game) for my liking and can/should be beaten by a better all around team on the road. Assuming Manning is 100%, taking the Colts.

Carolina over Philly. The Panthers play just well enough to win at home. Philly is hot right now, but think Carolina's D will come up big against McNabb. The Eagles can absorb this loss as it's clear that Dallas isn't going to hang around in the division race. Plus, the Eagles can be run on and Carolina can run it with anyone.

SF over Baltimore. Think the game by Anthony Wright last week was a fluke. If you saw the game or the highlights, Wright threw a lot of jump balls and Marcus Robinson just went up and got them.
As a QB, he doesn't look any better than he did with Dallas a couple years ago. Meanwhile, Garcia gets his starting job back and think he's less likely to throw a pick against the tough Raven D than Rattay would have been. Garcia controls the ball and the clock, and Anthony Wright comes back to earth.

New Orleans over Washington. Again, think Hasslebeck's decent showing last Sunday night was kinda flukey. With all week to prepare for him, the advantage has to lie with the Saints this week. Still think New Orleans has an outside shot at a wild card. Either way, I think they win this one and the speculation over Spurrier's future in Washington gets turned up a notch.

Seattle over Cleveland. The Seahawks find the perfect defense to bounce back against. They can put last week's gut wrenching loss behind them with an authoritative victory. Alexander approaches 200!

Denver over Oakland. Two starts and two solid outings by Mirer. If he does it again I might start believing. But the Broncos come in angry after last week's improbable loss at home to the Bears.
If Portis can get untracked early, it will open up the little dump offs for Plummer, which will in turn open up everything else. It's going to be a long day for the Raiduhs.

KC over SD. KC hasn't looked too good in recent weeks. But San Diego will have no answer for Holmes, and watch for Tony Gonzales to have a nice game, too. Even the most mediocre tight ends look like Kellen Winslow against these linebackers. And the good ones tend to have career days (see Shannon Sharpe's performance two weeks ago). KC in a rout.

Tampa Bay over Jacksonville. If Del Rio is talking about benching Leftwich then you know he's in trouble against the Bucs defense. Tampa Bay can still make the playoffs. They've got an easy schedule, and 9 wins could be enough if Dallas starts to stutter like I think they will. A potential wild card deciding game in New Orleans looms next week, but expect the Bucs to handle the Jags beforehand.

Tennessee vs. Jets. If McNair starts, I'm picking the Titans. If not, it could be too much for Volek to handle on the road on MNF, in New York no less. So, McNair = Titans win. No McNair = Titans lose. Either way, the important game is next week at home against the Colts. For that reason Fisher may decide to sit McNair as a precaution.

 

Chargers?


I hope we're both right about Leftwich, because if the Bucs win - or lose by 3 points or less - I'll hit my 6 team teaser!

Speaking of pointspreads, watching Doug Flutie drive the Chargers down the field with less than a minute left, then throw a "meaningless" 25 yard TD pass with no time left on the clock, was a thing of beauty. The score was 28-17 before the last-second TD. The line was Chiefs -7. I didn't have any money on the Bolts (I had the Chiefs on the tease so I was safe), so it wasn't nervewracking for me, but there are plenty of new additions to the I Love- or I Hate - Flutie clubs after today's game...