NCAA Tourney - who is in?

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by recsoc, Nov 15, 2003.

  1. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    Automatic (23 teams):
    America East - Binghamton
    Atlantic Soccer - FIU
    Atlantic Sun - UCF
    Ivy - Brown
    Metro - St. Peter's
    PAC-10 - UCLA
    West Coast - Santa Clara
    16 games to be played:
    ACC - Maryland vs. UVA
    Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island vs. Temple
    Big East - NOtre Dame vs. St. John's
    Big South - COastal vs. Birmingham Southern
    Big Ten - Indiana vs. Penn St.
    Big West - UC-Santa Barbara or Cal St. Northridge
    Colonial - VCU vs. George Mason
    Conference USA - SLU vs. UNC-C
    Horizon - Butler vs. UW-Milwaukee
    Mid-American - Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan
    Mid-Continent - Oakland vs. UMKC
    Missouri Valley - SMU vs. Bradley
    MPSF - San Jose St. vs. New Mexico
    Northeast - FDU vs. Central Connecticut
    Patriot League - Lafayette vs. Lehigh
    Southern - Davidson vs. College of Charleston

    At-Large - 25 Teams -
    "For Sure" - at-larges that are already out of their tourney's:
    1) Wake Forest
    2) UNC
    3) Old Dominion
    4) Hartwick
    5) Notre Dame/St. John's loser

    That leaves 20 spots - and 15 losers from the above matches.
    Who else will get in?
  2. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Besides the five you listed, in no partiular order...

    UC Santa Barabara - 15-4-1 (CS Northridge won the Big West Saturday night)
    Akron - 14-4-2
    Virginia Tech - 14-4-2
    Oregon State - 13-5-0 (has a game Sunday)
    Michigan - 13-6-0
    San Diego - 12-4-3
    Tulsa - 12-5-2
    Washington - 11-4-2 (has a game Sunday)
    Creighton - 10-5-3
    Yale - 10-6-1

    Like you said, the Big East loser is a lock so add that to the other four you posted and the 10 I just named and suddenly you're down to 10 at-large spots.

    There are a LOT of teams on the bubble and they are screwed every time there's an upset Sunday. For instance, Indiana is in, regardless, while Penn State needs a win to go the NCAAs. Same with the Maryland/Virginia in the ACC and Saint Louis/Charlotte in the C-USA.

    A lot of the bubble teams will be losers Sunday. Lehigh-Lafayette, Farleigh Dickinson-Central Connecticut, SMU-Bradley, etc...
  3. due time

    due time Member+

    Mar 1, 1999
    Santa Clara
    Loyola Marymount 12-6-1
  4. KR

    KR New Member

    Jan 5, 2000
    Big East according to Ray Reid

    Ray Reid was interviewed on TV during the telecast of the Big East Finals (Great win by Notre Dame). Reid sees 6 Big East teams going to the big dance : St. John's. Notre Dame, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall and of course, UCONN.
  5. OnTheSidelines

    OnTheSidelines New Member

  6. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    Who's IN?

    Automatic (23):
    Rhode Island
    Notre Dame
    Cal St. Northridge
    St. Peter's
    Western Michigan
    San Jose State
    Santa Clara

    At-Large Locks (6):
    Wake Forest
    St. John's

    The Bubble - 19 spots - I see 29 teams in the running. I used the computer ratings top 50 - so anyone not in the top 50 and not in automatic is not listed. The computer ratings are a week old, so don't take into account the past weeks results:
    Far West - 4 are already in:
    Oregon State
    UC Santa Barabara
    San Diego
    Loyola Marymount
    CSU Fullerton

    Great Lakes - 4 are already in:
    Michigan State

    Mid-Atlantic - 4 are already in:
    Penn State
    Seton Hall

    Mid West - 2 are already in:

    New England - 2 are already in:

    New York - no one on the bubble - 3 already in

    S. Atlantic - 5 are already in:
    Virginia Tech
    William & Mary

    South - 5 are already in:
    College of Charleston

    Who are the 10 eliminated? Don't forget - regional representation is very political in the NCAA's - as long as one team is in from each region - one region could have the remaining 40 spots.
  7. alco_soccerstar

    Nov 3, 2003
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    MARYLAND is in it!, I went to their camp over the summer and their team is excellent. They lost to UVA, but still can win the NCAA Championship
  8. soccerwriter

    soccerwriter New Member

    Jul 2, 2000
    new york
    why are we all assuming UConn is in? Because Ray Reid says so? Look at their non-conference top-25 results and with the exception of a 2-1 home win over Indiana, all are poor. Losses toWake Forest UNC, Maryland and Yale. In my opinion, the loss to Yale will be the difference in an NCAA bid.

    Also dont think Seton Hall is in either, although would be less surprised by their at-large bid than UConns.

    I see four from the Big East (ND, SJU, Va Tech and Rutgers). Also could see two top 5 seeds in ND and SJU.

    I can see Binghamton at Rutgers in the first round. Possibly St. Peter's at FDU as well.
  9. RobtheAggie

    RobtheAggie Member+

    Sep 10, 2001
    Middle Georgia
    Rochester Rhinos
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Someone needs to merge the duplicate threads.

    I wonder if for example Michigan will be penalized by the absence of one of their best players, Knox Cameron. I remember when the NCAA committe put Kenyon Martin's Cincinnatti (sp?) Bearcats in a lower seed for the basketball tourney because he broke his leg and would not play. Is it possible that the teams with U-20 National team players will also recieve similar seeding?
  10. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    UConn has a very good strength of schedule. That, and wins over Indiana and Notre Dame will likely do it for them.
  11. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    Player availability is a factor in selection - whether it be due to injury, red card, or National team duty.

    I htink UConn w/ 8 losses and not a strong showing in their tourney is out.
  12. PB04

    PB04 New Member

    Aug 27, 2002
    If UCONN is in (and I doubt it) then NC State should be in (and they probably won't). State has a better record, similar strength of schedules (NC State's should improve after playing Maryland and UNC this past week) and better results against common opponents. The Big East and UCONN this year have essentially been the ACCs whipping boy (1 win, 9 losses).

    If you review the schedules and results of the top Big East teams - the only team that has some good wins (out of conference) is Notre Dame. Also if you are using the computer rankings, the Big East is only the sixth toughest conference. The top three power conferences are the Pac 10, WCCF and the ACC. Five teams from the Big East would be ridiculous.
  13. sheeplover

    sheeplover Member

    Sep 16, 2002
    Zidane's right foot
    ACC Teams

    The ACC will get five for being the best conference in the country:

  14. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    I think Clemson has a tough argument - 8 losses and 1-5 vs. top competition. Not a great finish.
    They do play a tough schedule to their credit.
  15. KinleyDog

    KinleyDog New Member

    Aug 20, 2003
    clemson doesn't seem right to me, but they do have a winning record (actually better than uva), but i'm just not sure if there were enough big wins. one could argue that nc state should also make it too. for the sake of the acc, i hope they both make it though.
  16. sheeplover

    sheeplover Member

    Sep 16, 2002
    Zidane's right foot

    Clemson will get in on their win at UNC, that's what it comes down to I think.

    I am 99% sure you will see them in the field, probably playing the Friday game @ Coastal Carolina
  17. nostradamus

    nostradamus New Member

    Oct 10, 2003
    in the US love

    I admire your support for your team, but as you know, it all comes down to politics in those at large is who you know! Beating UNC was good, but not good enough!

    I hope they make it for their players' sake! Would they host or have to go to Coastal?
  18. sheeplover

    sheeplover Member

    Sep 16, 2002
    Zidane's right foot

    As I'm sure you already know Nostradamus, Clemson is in because of strength of schedule and the fact that the ACC deserves 5 spots every year.

    They will play at Coastal or at FIU Friday night.

    FIXXXER New Member

    Feb 16, 2001
    Hotlanta, GA
    I concur

    I say Clemson is in the 48 team field this year. I'll also say at Coastal on Friday night.
  20. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Coastal is 18-2 and you think they're playing a first round game?

    They may not be seeded (Top Eight) but they're gonna be one of the 16 teams to get a first round bye.

    And, I imagine they'll host Sunday, too.
  21. sheeplover

    sheeplover Member

    Sep 16, 2002
    Zidane's right foot

    Don't you host two teams on the Friday night if you are a top 16 seed and play on the Sunday?
  22. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Re: Sandon

    Not as I understand it.

    My take is that there are 48 teams in and the top 16 get a bye the first round. Presumably, the first round is Friday and the team's that had a bye host the second round Sunday.

    Mathematically, you need an exponential of 4 to make a tournamend work and 48 ain't it. (4,8,16,32, etc...) Thus, with 48 teams, you need a bye for a number of teams to get you back to that exponential of four.

    If 16 teams ina 48-team tournament get a first round bye, that means 32 teams play the winners, added to the 16 teams that got a bye puts you back at 32 in the second round and your back on one of the magic exponential numbers.

    Coastal may host a game Friday night but it will be as a neutral site for the two teams with the winner playing Coastal Sunday.
  23. sheeplover

    sheeplover Member

    Sep 16, 2002
    Zidane's right foot
    big gulps huh

    Isn't that what I said?

    Clemson will play @ Coastal on Friday night against someone with the winner playing Coastal on the Sunday.

    Maybe you just misunderstood or I was unclear.
  24. VCU Fan

    VCU Fan New Member

    Sep 4, 2002
    Actually, the format this year is the same as last year, with the first round occuring on Friday and the second round on Wed., Nov. 26. For example, instead of the scenario posted earlier with Clemson and, say Old Dominion playing at Coastal, Clemson would play at ODU (just an example, mind you) Friday, with the winner playing at Coastal next Wednesday. Is that clear? In other words, no neutral site games (barring special circumstances). I think the NCAA went to this format to try to boost attendance, which was usually pretty poor for that first round game that didn't include the home school.
  25. nostradamus

    nostradamus New Member

    Oct 10, 2003
    in the US
    Re: Clemson

    Strong schedule with only one important win...a stretch...looking at schedule could not beat Winthrop or Air Force. I hope they make it though!

    That the ACC deserves 5 spots, is purely especulation on your part. Regional pairing is what NCAA looks for.

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