NCAA Tournament Selection

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by gauchodan, Nov 13, 2023.

  1. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    Top 16 seeds
    1. Marshall
    2. Notre Dame
    3. North Carolina
    4. Georgetown
    5. West Virginia
    6. SMU
    7. Virginia
    8. New Hampshire
    9. Clemson
    10. Wake Forest
    11. Portland
    12. UCF
    13. UCLA
    14. Hofstra
    15. Duke
    16. Stanford
    First-round matchups
    • California Baptist at San Diego
    • Omaha at Missouri State
    • High Point at Charlotte
    • Boston U. at Syracuse
    • Dayton at Louisville
    • Rider at Vermont
    • UC Irvine at Loyola Marymount
    • James Madison at Pittsburgh
    • SIUE at Memphis
    • Yale at Bryant
    • Seattle at Oregon State
    • LIU at Denver
    • Mercer at FIU
    • Lipscomb at Indiana
    • Green Bay at Western Michigan
    • Kentucky at Xavier
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  2. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    VCU was the only team to miss the field from above the cut line of 35/37. James Madison was the one team pulled up into the field to replace them. Penn State and Akron were not selected. Kentucky and Pittsburgh survived.
    Sandon Mibut and TimB4Last repped this.
  3. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    As far as top 16 seeds, Clemson (rpi 17), Stanford (rpi 19) and Duke (rpi 20) were given 1st-round byes while Bryant (rpi 11), Western Michigan (rpi 13) and Charlotte (rpi 14) were denied.
    BigRedFootie and TimB4Last repped this.
  4. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    My initial gut instinct was Clemson would be given a top 16 seed, but then I used my metric and stepped away from that prediction. Looking at how they selected and seeded, the Committee rewarded teams that played lots of games vs. Quad 1 and Quad 2. I will tweak my metric to reflect that and see how I do next year!
  5. fanatica

    fanatica New Member

    United States
    Feb 6, 2020
    grateful to you, gauchodan. amazing work and service to us all
  6. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    I trust Gaucho Dan's RPI. I drilled down into the top 32 teams and compared their "seed" with Dan's RPI. Ignoring the regional/travel restrictions, here were the big winners & losers:

    Team Seed gain(+)/loss(-)
    JMU +18
    Clemson +8
    Oregon State +6

    Charlotte -10
    Bryant -8
    Louisville -7
    Hofstra -6
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  7. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    At-large bids by conference, with their champions in parenthesis.

    ACC (Clemson) – 8: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, Pittsburgh
    Sun Belt (Marshall) – 4: West Virginia, Kentucky, Central Florida, James Madison
    American Athletic (Charlotte) – 3: Southern Methodist, Memphis, Florida International
    America East (Bryant) – 2: New Hampshire, Vermont
    Pac-12 (UCLA) – 2: Oregon State, Stanford
    West Coast (San Diego) – 2: Portland, Loyola Marymount
    Big East (Xavier) – 1: Georgetown
    Missouri Valley (Western Michigan) – 1: Missouri State
    Summit (Omaha) – 1: Denver
    Western Athletic Conference (California Baptist) – 1: Seattle

    Shocking that the Big Ten, which features former national champions Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State and Wisconsin and former Final Four/College Cup teams Michigan, Rutgers, Penn State and Ohio State, is only a one-bid league.

    Same for the Big East, only getting 2 bids. This is the conference of former national champs Georgetown, Akron, St. John’s and UConn, and former FF/CC teams Creighton and Providence.

    Crazy that the ACC adds Stanford and SMU to the mix next year.

    Interesting to note that whole this has been a down year for a lot of traditional powers, 10 of the 16 seeds, including the top 4, and have combined for 13 championships since 2000. Will there be a newcomer to the championship ranks, or will some team add another star in December?
  8. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    How down a year for traditional powers was 2023? A total of 37 teams that have been the the College Cup/Final Four at least once, including 12 former D-I national champions, failed to make the NCAA Tournament this season.

    Here are said teams, in order of RPI, with the year they last appeared in the CC/FF and, if applicable, their last national title in parenthesis. Teams in italics had losing records and thus weren't eligible for tournament selection.

    39. Saint Louis – 1997 (1973)
    41. Akron – 2018 (2010)
    43. Washington – 2021
    46. Penn State – 1979
    53. Ohio State – 2007
    54. Connecticut – 2000 (2000)
    55. Cal State Fullerton - 1993
    56. Michigan State – 2018 (1968)
    57. Davidson – 1992
    58. Cornell – 1972
    59. Providence – 2014
    60. Michigan – 2010
    67. UMBC – 2014
    68. St. John’s – 2008 (1996)
    73. Wisconsin – 1995 (1995)
    74. San Francisco – 1980 (1980)
    78. San Diego State – 1987
    79. Santa Clara – 2003 (1989)
    86. Harvard – 1987
    88. Princeton – 1993
    89. NC State – 1990

    90. UC Santa Barbara – 2006 (2006)
    93. Virginia Tech – 2007
    99. Creighton - 2022
    100. South Carolina – 1993
    102. Maryland – 2018 (2018)
    104. Rutgers – 1994

    105. Massachusetts – 2007
    107. Brown – 1977
    108. American – 1985
    114. Evansville – 1990
    135. San Jose State – 1968
    172. Navy – 1967 (1964)
    177. Columbia – 1983
    190. Army – 1966
    198. Eastern Illinois – 1981
    201. Howard – 1988 (1974)
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  9. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    The above is not to suggest this year's NCAA Tournament teams are without pedigree. Anything but; 22 of them have been to the College Cup/Final Four, most multiple times, and won a combined 34 national titles, including 11 of the last 12. There's also a couple of D-II national titles with this group.

    Here are the team's from this year's NCAA Tournament who have been to a CC/FF, with their most recent time there, their last national title and, if applicable, their number of D-I titles.

    Syracuse 2022 (2022)
    Indiana 2022 (2012, 8 all time)
    Pittsburgh 2022
    Clemson 2021 (2021, 4)
    Notre Dame 2021 (2013)
    Georgetown 2021 (2019)
    Marshall 2020* (2020*)
    North Carolina 2020* (2011, 2)
    Stanford 2019 (2017, 3)
    Virginia 2019 (2014, 7)
    Wake Forest 2019 (2007)
    Denver 2016
    UCLA 2014 (2002, 4)
    Charlotte 2011
    Louisville 2010
    Southern Methodist 2005
    Duke 2004 (1986)
    Florida International 1996^
    Portland 1995
    San Diego 1992
    SIU Edwardsville 1982 (1979)^
    Long Island 1967

    *Played in spring of 2021
    ^Also won a DII national title (as has Seattle, which also won an NAIA natty).
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  10. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    I noticed that, too. Pitt doesn't have a very distinguished record, but they played 9 Quad 1 teams. They only won 1 of those and lost 6, but received what I'd say is the biggest "boost" in seeding (from a 30 RPI to ~ #20 seed) from the NCAA.
    fknbuflobo and TimB4Last repped this.
  11. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    Editing this list. I mistakenly thought that JMU was hosting, when in reality it was Pitt who are the biggest winners:

    TimB4Last repped this.
  12. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Pitt has an SOS of 1.

    Clearly that meant something to the committee. Also, the NCAA appears to have a love-hate relationship with James Madison.
    BigRedFootie repped this.
  13. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    I know we've been throught this discussion before, but going 1-6-2 vs 9 Quad 1 teams qualifies you for a 10-seed jump over your RPI? Pitt BARELY qualified for the tourney w/ a 6-6-4 record, but is hosting a first round match with an effective seed of 20. As long as we're also talking about JMU (8-4-5), they went 2-3-3 against Quad 1 squads, but they aren't hosting.
    fknbuflobo and TimB4Last repped this.
  14. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    Predicting who makes the NCAA Tournament can be a moving target. This Selection Committee clearly valued strong scheduling. Pitt playing the #1 SOS was a plus. Going 1-6-2 vs. Quad 1 was not a minus.

    In my metric, I combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 and used total points earned...figuring that would reward teams on the scheduling side. Pitt was 2-6-3 vs. Q1/2, good for 9 points. That's better than Bryant, who was 2-1-2 vs. Q1/2 for 8 points. Some would value Bryant's way-better winning percentage vs. the same group of teams...others would value Pitt playing all but 5 games against stiff competition.

    I think I may split up Q1 and Q2 to double the impact of scheduling. I still like the concept of using points vs. winning percentage.

    And as soon as I tune that up, a different Selection Committee may value some other metric more!
  15. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Hey, I wouldn't have given them a home game.

    A bid, yes. But those bitches would be on a bus.
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  16. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    I still stand by your RPI calculations. NCAA should hire you!
    gauchodan repped this.
  17. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    And I like PItt and their coach. I just think that the NCAA dropped the ball on this one. We are, of course, not privvy to practical adjustments that were made, such as travel/regional assignments and whether or not a given team has facilities sufficient to host (you used to have to ask to host each year). There also has to have been some effort to balance the number of teams from a given conference across the four brackets. These would explain SOME of the seeding and hosting selections.
    fknbuflobo, Fitballer and TimB4Last repped this.
  18. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    Thanks. All I'm doing is modeling the NCAA's calculation.
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  19. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    They should model yours.
    fknbuflobo repped this.
  20. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    I'm just saying I have not invented anything. It's not my ranking system. It's theirs. My only addition to the RPI is being able to update it in real time.
    BigRedFootie repped this.
  21. fknbuflobo

    fknbuflobo Member+

    Arsenal FC
    United States
    Nov 16, 2011
    Akron, Ohio
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah. That is really cool. Thanks.
  22. BigGreenTruck

    BigGreenTruck Member

    College: The Thundering Herd of Marshall
    Aug 29, 2023
    South Charleston WV
    No need to worry anymore about Pitt this year as they are a 1 and done. JMU goes in and wins 2-1. The Big East Champs in Xavier gone as well Kentucky takes X out 2-0.

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