My 2022 World Cup Group Stage Predictions: What do you think?

This.

I looked back up to 1998 and looked which "hipster" Round of 16 clashes we got.
They always happen when a not favoured side topples a powerhouse and finishes top of the group and the group next to that group finishes according to script.

1998

Nigeria - Denmark (Nigeria had toppled Spain)
Romania - Croatia (Romania had toppled England)

2002

Mexico - USA (Mexico had toppled Italy)
Sweden - Senegal (Sweden had toppled England)

2006

Swiitzerland - Ukraine (Sweitzerland had toppled France)

2010

Uruguay - South Korea (Uruguay had toppled France)
USA - Ghana (USA had toppled England)
Paraguay - Japan (Paraguay had toppled Italy)

2014

Colombia - Uruguay (Uruguay had toppled Italy and England)
Costa Rica - Greece (Costa Rica had toppled Italy and England)

2018

Croatia - Denmark (Croatia had toppled Argentina)
Sweden - Switzerland (Sweden had toppled Germany)

2022

????

I bring up two possibilities that go through my mind

Denmark - Poland (Denmark topple France)
Japan - Morocco (Japan topple Spain and Germany)

 

Plenty of examples the other way, though, where the favorites squared off in the final group play match. Just off the top of my head, Belgium-England in 2018. Two teams that really didn't want to win that match. I don't think England had a single starter who played except for Pickford. England lost, and benefited greatly from the loss, as they avoided the much tougher side of the bracket with Brazil and France.

 

your huge database seem to have a cough.

how many goals did trinidad-tobago score in 2006?

 

I forgot about them. Probably because they picked up still a point despite not scoring.

And yeah, my database is huge.

 

I think they will.

 

Belgium are garabage defensively. They found a way to coat it against most teams by relieving pressure via holding on possession in the own half. But if they face actually a side that is able to hold on the ball for large stretches of a game that is where Belgium suffer the most. Then they can't control the flow of the game and their defense is at high risk of getting exposed. I mean Vertonghen and Alderweireld barely can run anymore. They are both very slow now. If a Morocco cheered on by the crowd can constantly run attacks on that backline they can beat Belgium.

Already judging by the highlights of the friendly games Morocco played in Spain you could see the incredible atmosphere on the stands. Morocco will have great support in Qatar I suppose and it might propel them to pip Belgium for progress to the Round of 16.

I have Belgium - Morocco and Germany - Japan for now as my shockers of the group stage.

 

Update (probably not the last one haha)

A: Netherlands, Senegal
B: England, USA
C: Argentina, Poland
D: France, Denmark
E: Spain, Japan
F: Croatia, Morocco
G: Brazil, Serbia
H: Portugal, Uruguay

The only change is in bold.

 

I call Belgium's destiny.

Group stage exit with 3 points.

They will (easily) beat Canada. But consecutive losses to Morocco and Croatia send Courtois, KDB and Lukaku packing.

 

I have Group F finishing now like this:

Morocco - Croatia___________Draw
Belgium - Canada___________Belgium win
Belgium - Morocco__________Morocco win
Croatia - Canada____________Croatia win
Canada - Morocco___________Canada win
Croatia - Belgium____________Croatia win


Croatia________7
Morocco______4
Belgium_______3
Canada_______3

I said it from day one. This group felt and still feels a group in which the results will be all over the place and not straightforward by any means.

 

I still believe Qatar will have a big party in the opening game. Qatar's only bright moment will be the opening day. They will show themselves as highly professional hosts and they will get a 2-1 win over Ecuador.

I can relate if you guys have Ecuador favourites in that match (Qatar's form has been terrible for a while) but I just don't see them showing up. The hosts want it more. The gap in quality between these two teams is overstated.

Qatar have more firepower upfront. Players like Akram Afif and Ali Almoez. Does Ecuador have any players of that caliber upfront? They have only an aging Enner Valencia. Qatar will edge it out. Home advantage, more experience plus more attacking prowess will make them winning the opening game.

 

I don't discount the possibility of Qatar beating Ecuador (that was my initial prediction after the draw), but Qatar's stock has gone further down in my eyes since then, while Ecuador's stock have gone up slightly. Now I see Group A with one clear favorite (Holland), with Senegal next but not necessarily assured of finishing above Ecuador. Qatar, otoh, seems now destined to finish without a win.

 

Incidentally, my gut tells me that Iran and Senegal will meet in the R-16. And I think Carlos Queiroz will this time emerge victorious against Senegal.

 

Although I didn't pick Iran in my provisional predictions I give them a decent chance to advance. But I watched the Iran - Senegal friendly the other day and Senegal clearly had more and better chances. I think particularly Senegal with their physical strengh and pace are a very tough match up for Iran.

 

If Senegal can stop being wasteful in front of goal, they will beat both Qatar and Ecuador quite easily.

If they continue their struggles in front of goal despite dominating matches, they are only inviting those 2 to possibly take their place in the 2nd round.

 

Senegal can't beat Ecuador "quite easily". This narrative that they are on the same level as Qatar is laughable. They have the physicality and organization to compete with Senegal any day.
I will be very surprised if that game ends with a two or more goal margin for either side. Qatar, on the other side, is FAR from showing those basic qualities.

 

20 November can't come soon enough.

Qatar 2-1 Ecuador

Remember this.

 

Despite creating (and sometimes being gifted) half a dozen goal scoring chances against Iran, I was actually less impressed by Senegal after their friendly against Iran than beforehand. They faced Iran when the team was divided politically and in terms of how to respond to the protests in Iran, with the team quite distracted and showing clear signs of some of its political divisions. (Several Iranian players were under enormous pressure to come out and take a stance against the government and the fact that Sardar Azmoun was the first to do so, added unwanted pressure on those players known to be reluctant to follow suit and earned the animosity of others known to be supportive of the government).

On top of that, with Southgate personally in attendance, and with Queiroz trying to test as many players as possible while keeping his cards close to his vest, the team Iran fielded had 7 changes compared to the one against Uruguay (Iran tested 22 different players in the two friendlies against Uruguay and Senegal). Despite all that, I was so sure Iran could (if so inclined) mount a comeback and liven up its game that I welcomed the own goal that gave Senegal the lead. I welcomed the own goal because it gave me an opportunity to see how Iran would respond and I wasn't left disappointed.

Anyway my assessment is that Iran will prevail over Senegal if the two were to meet at the knock out rounds. Furthermore, while I previously saw Senegal almost a shoe-in to advance from its group, I no longer feel that will be the case. I still pick them to advance but I feel it would be very close.

 

Interesting comment. Thanks.

 

Fernando Santos said before the Spain clash "The best is yet to come".

I fully agree. The 1-0 loss to Spain will serve as blessing in disguise. Portugal will reach new heights in Qatar. They will at the very least come home with a medal.

 

The big caveat is IF they can increase their conversion of chances, which I don't see them doing any time soon.

I think Senegals games will be close, because they will fail to put both Ecuador and Qatar away, when they should, even possibly leaving them susceptible to a negative result, much like what happened in the Iran friendly, and has happened in their games vs Egypt.

As far as Qatar and Ecuador, I think they are a lot closer than you think.

Qatar seems to always get trounced by European opposition (with the 5-1 Ghana trouncing the exception)

They've never really been beaten like that playing in both the Copa and the Gold Cup where they were competitive with those teams.

They never got trounced in the Copa and even managed a draw and a one and two goal loss to Colombia and Argentina respectively and again this window they drew against Chile, so they will do very well against Ecuador IMO, and the home advantage would make me favor them. I dont see them losing that match, I'm with Kam on this one.

From what I've seen of Ecuador, they are pretty average, nothing to write home about. Not particularly good offensively or defensively.

 

That copa was 3 years ago when they were at their peak.

Chile is dogshit now. Everyone and their mother is beating them. In fact, they were on a 6 match goaless streak before playing Qatar. They had to play a side like Qatar to get a goal (and they even missed a pk as well).

 

I agree about everything you said. Chile are dogshit. But it doesn't change my opinion on the outcome of the opening game.

I think never in history a World Cup host lost their opener. The odds are against Ecuador.

 

You are absolutely wrong on Australia. They are terrible. In all honesty they shouldn't be in Qatar to begin with. They finished in WCQ way behind Saudi Arabia and Japan. Australia showed spirit in the playoffs but they capitalised also on Peru not showing up for the playoff.
Australia will face much much better sides in their group and even Tunisia will be very tough as they will enjoy great support on the stands. If anything Australia will finish last. Possibly without any points which is my prediction.