Colorado vs. Salt Lake 1.80 l 3.40 l 4.50 As horrible as Colorado is away, they are that good at The Dick. COL is playing just their 3rd home game on the season after an extended bunch of mostly road games. Altitude has no effect here however as RSL plays in the mountains as well. RSL also has just 1 win in 6 away. RSL has an ability to control the midfield and be dangerous on the wings. The problem is RSL hasn't shown an ability to do this away from the narrow turf in Utah. COL, by contrast, allows almost nothing wide at home, it's a huge field. RSL must adjust the plan to grass and width. This is a tough ask. The odds reflect all of this, so there really is no good value bet on the board, except maybe draw as you rarely see 3.4. Still that is always a hit and hope bet, so I'll go with COL to have enjoyed some well-earned home pillow time and show up with the goods. COL@1.8 Toronto vs. Columbus 2.60 l 3.28 l 2.65 Toronto is tough at home, but CLB has way too much in the midfield. CLB is 6-1 and deserves to be. The arguement for Toronto begins with BMO and probably ends with CLB having allowed 9 goals. The problem with that is TOR has only scored 8. The extended argument for CLB is too long to post here. CLB beat TOR in CLB earlier this season. 2.65 is a bit of a gift. I think BMO field is overvalued here. CLB@2.65 New York vs. Kansas City 2.00 l 3.30 l 3.75 KC is garbage away, playing it's 4th straight road game - MLS win percentage is about 11% in that situation, had a fairly worthless scrimage last week, will be out of form, has lost two straight in division and away, and generally has nothing but hope. NY is unbeaten in 10 games at home. I'm seriously thinking fo not even watching this one. That said, the history of NY and KC is that records and venues don't seem to matter too much and there have been 8 draws in history. KC turns the ball over too much and too easily, NY will make them pay. It kills me to type that. NY@2.00 New England vs. San Jose 1.73 l 3.50 l 5.00 NE at home v an expansion team with Garcia at central defender. The odds are only 1.73 as SJ has scored well and has been competitive of late. Take the gift. Twellman scored last week, his first. He scores in bunches. If you can find a prop bet for him scoring, take it. <--- I NEVER recommend prop bets. NE@1.73 Chicago vs. Houston 2.07 l 3.25 l 3.50 I like Blanco and Co. to earn the points. CHI has won 5 of 6. The one loss was to KC in a fluke. Chad Barett missed an open net from 6 yards among countless other Chicago Best Buy misses. CHI has just that one loss in it's last 15 league games. HOU hasn't figured out the winning formula away yet, although both Ching and DeRo scored last week at home. HOU has jsut two points from 4 roadies this year. Both of those were scoreless draws. CHI will not be held scoreless again at home this season. If anyone else, I probably pick HOU to capitallize on the form of Ching and DeRo. I mostly default to multiple streaks in play until there is good reason not to. HOU still allows a ton of chances. Draw is relevant for you Asian players. CHI@2.07 Chivas vs. DC United 2.20 l 3.25 l 3.30 Check the injury list on this one as both teams are down players. Three time zones and DC's garbage record away say Chivas. Chivas' injury list screams DC or Draw. A home team at 2.2 is a nice thing to salt away if you have any reason. CHV has many guys that understand the game, but if Klijestan is out, that is DC's window. I might have more on this later, but I can't pick DC away just yet until they learn how to not allow everything out front. Preki and Guzan badly need a get-right game. CHV@2.2 Dallas vs. Los Angeles 2.10 l 3.30 l 3.50 DAL at home is normally a tough game, but they have been generous on defense of late. LA is winless in 3 away. DAL wins with guts, size, and work ethic. LA wins with the brilliance of LD and Becks. In a game where creation is ever so much harder than destruction, it's good to lean towards work ethic where there are only two danger men. I like Toja for that cancellation roll. LA has no answer for Cooper. I could be wrong, but I don't think LA can get wide here unless the classy Klein has found some HGH. I like DAL to solve some of the fouling out front issues for this game. DAL@2.1 Good luck!
Seems like an extremely difficult week to me. After the first three, I think they're all pretty much toss-ups. All odds from Bodog. Home team in ALL CAPS. Listed in order of confidence: NEW ENGLAND (1.59) over San Jose (5.10) – Twellman’s back, Ralston’s back, and San Jose’s on the road. If you need me to help you here… CHICAGO (2.20) over Houston (3.00) – Houston needed a late PK to get the full three last week, and this week has to go to Chicago to face the best team (by my mark, at least) in Major League Soccer. Also, the Eastern Conference owns the Western Conference thus far this season (with the exception of DC … remember for later). Bet against that at your own peril. NEW YORK (2.00) over Kansas City (3.35) – Long road trips suck. Period. Kansas City is 1-2 on the current roadie, with an impressive win over Chicago, a tough loss to Columbus and a loss to Toronto FC. In reality, that’s not too bad, but combined with a less-than-impressive opening to the season (beating DC and Colorado at home does not a resume make) means we haven’t seen much from the Wiz yet. Say what you will about the Red Bulls (and lord knows I have), but the squad has only one loss on the campaign. I like NY at home here, but I’m not as confident as WC seems to be. Columbus (2.55) over TORONTO (2.50) – It’s become passé to talk about how much better Toronto FC is at home, but the side’s wins at BMO this year have come over RSL (1-0) and Kansas City (in the middle of a huge road trip). New York got a point out of there last week. That’s not all that impressive. Missing Moffat will hurt Columbus here, though. Also, this is back-to-back weeks on the road for Columbus, and the team looked less-than-impressive in San Jose. On the road, Columbus is 2-1 – the win over SJ, a loss at NY and a win over DC on a game-winning-own goal. I’m taking Columbus here, but the Asian might not be a bad play, and I’m not overly convinced by my pick. CHIVAS USA (2.20) over DC United (3.00) – Ugh. If you can get decent odds on “scoreless draw that puts soccer in America back 40 years,” this might be the place. Chivas is now without ¾ of its starting backline (Vaughn, Zotinca, Bornstein) due to injury and has one point in its last five. But DC can’t score away from home; United has a grand total of zero goals away from RFK in 2008 during MLS play. DC has never lost at Chivas before, but this has the best chance – East vs. West or no. Asian might not be bad here, as Chivas’ offense hasn’t been world-beating as of late. COLORADO (1.75) over Real Salt Lake (4.25) – Rivalry game. It’s true that Colorado is very, very good at home. It’s also true that RSL got four points from two league matchups in Denver last year (including the hilarious 1-1 draw with two own goals). However, RSL is 0-3 away from the awful turf this year. I really want to have one more reason to chase the huge number for RSL here, but Colorado has the best player (Gomez), the better keeper and is at home. (EDIT: Late move on Bodog has Colorado at 2.00) FC DALLAS (2.10) over Los Angeles (3.25) – A loss at home against the Red Bulls and a meaningless midweek friendly against Vancouver seems to have cooled off the Galaxy a bit. The team will warm up playing in midday sun in Dallas, even in May. Dallas redefines mediocrity for me and is 0-2-1 in its last three. Cooper’s goal last week hopefully means he’ll find the net a bit more frequently going forward – if he doesn’t, it’ll be a long season at Pizza Hut Park. Landon Donovan is listed as “questionable” currently, but that might have been a polite excuse to hold him out of the Whitecaps friendly. I’ve got Dallas, but again – I’m not sold.
Interesting that the bodog odds for COL tonight went from 1.75 to 2.00 at kickoff. Was there a last minute injury scratch I'm not seeing? I jumped in last minute with a rather sizable wager for the home side, but with the Crapids craptacular home performance against SJ ringing through my ears. I'll say goals from Cummings, Gomez with Duchar netting a consolation.
Good call on the RSL-Colorado game. This in from the injury wire - Chivas currently has EIGHT players listed as out, including SIX defenders. There are only three other defenders on the roster - two of them have a combined total of 185 minutes this year, and the third is Jim Curtain. That CHV-DC game is a tough call right about now. RS
Post-game: 3-3 heading into today. NE was a gimmie. DC should be ashamed, and the paper bags should be out next weekend at RFK. I was really close to taking RSL for the number - glad reason won out. As for the losses...BIG game from Kevin Hartman. Even with all the honors he's won, he's *still* underrated. Columbus looked a bit disinterested, except for GBS, who looked horizontal for most of the match. And Chicago-Houston? Upsets happen. RS