THUR: Toronto vs. New York 2.45 l 3.30 l 2.80 We knew TOR at home wasn't a joke. What we didn't know is how putrid KC can be in the middle of the park. TOr has still only beaten lesser teams, and KC at a mere shadow of themselves. I still like NY away here both for value of odds and TOR has no answer for not only Angel but also for teams that don't turn it over consistently. I'm posting this before I've had time to review the injury list and MLS preview. Do check those. Parke and Angel might be out for NY. If not, I like NY. NY@2.8 Weekend: Columbus vs. Kansas City 1.93 l 3.30 l 4.00 Colorado vs. DC United 2.49 l 3.25 l 2.85 New England vs. Chicago 2.30 l 3.25 l 3.00 San Jose vs. Dallas 3.07 l 3.25 l 2.25 Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles 2.20 l 3.30 l 3.30 Houston vs. Chivas 2.10 l 3.25 l 3.55
Fort the year through 5 weeks I'm 17-18 on straight predictions. Up almost 6 units betting a strict 1 unit/game (a "unit is $10 for me). Yours may vary and as always, in reality use "Kelly criterion" to maximize bankroll in your daily life. I also have the following team by team results: Team W L $(+/-) CHI 3 2 14.0 CHV 2 3 -24.3 CMB 3 2 20.5 COL 4 1 44.7 DAL 1 4 2.0 DC 4 1 3.3 HOU 1 4 -30.0 KC 3 3 22.8 LA 2 3 0.0 NE 1 5 -20.0 NY 3 1 17.5 RSL 3 2 14.0 SJ 2 2 -5.0 TOR 2 3 0.0 Total 17 18 59.5 Good luck. This came out tough to read. I have no idea how to format it, sorry.
I learned my lesson last week in betting against TOR at home. Three game winning streak, on their turf, against a team that last won on the road on July 8, 2007 (a 1-0 win over Colorado). There's also little incentive for taking the road team here (2.45 vs. 2.8?), so I've got TORONTO.
Columbus vs. Kansas City 2.00 l 3.30 l 4.00 KC can't connect 2 passes and is in #3 consecutive away. Lopez is a disappointment and is scoreless in 5 games, Trujillo is getting big bench time, Davy Arnaud still isn't back, Sealy is offside often, Jewsbury seems to be the only road warrior on the roster, and CLB has good kids and good vets. Don't bet he farm as this series rarely if ever follows "form". Stay completely away from anything like a prop or parlay here. CLB@2.00 New England vs. Chicago 2.30 l 3.25 l 3.60 I like NE at home v anyone (even 1 loss in 13 CHI) until further notice. CHI has alot of value on the other side, however. I wouldn't pie on this one either. Draw has merit so in reality I would do a NE "asian" here to include that. NE@2.3 Houston vs. Chivas 2.15 l 3.25 l 3.65 Houston is finally at home after an extended trip. That usually spells good things, especially in division and against an opponent that is reeling a bit with injuries adn poor poor defending. None of Chivas' defenders right down to Guzan in net has looked worth a hoot in a long while. Houston should have enough to overcome what will be a better performance from Chivas, who predictably lost at HDA 5-2 to LA last week. I don't think draw has any merit here. I think the question is does Houston win by 1 or 4? HOU@2.15 Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles 2.45 l 3.30 l 3.05 RSL has lost some of the early seson bloom and LA is just gangbusters with LD running everywhere and Becks finding him. LD is flat uncoverable, the MLS Player of April, and should probably have 4-5 more goals ridiulously. LD doesn't have to defend when they score 5. They should get 2 on the turf against a slid and improving defense. RSL has the ability to counter what LA does with their youth and speed. Not sure about the brain just yet (it's coming) and that's where LA's value away here makes good. LA@2.45 San Jose vs. Dallas 3.65 l 3.25 l 2.25 Dallas has enough. DAL@2.25 Colorado vs. DC United 2.65 l 3.25 l 2.85 Ilike COL at home. COL is also returning home after an extended roadie. DL away has been a huge issue so far this season. COL's midfield is just that much better at altitude. DC has issues there. DC wins by possession, width, and shots. COL doesn't allow any of that at home. By contrast COl wins with effort and finishing. That is precisely what has killed DC all year, even in their wins. COL@2.65 Good luck.
My picks (in order of confidence, home team in all caps): COLORADO over DC United: DC is very, very bad in Denver. United hasn't taken a point since 2003, and the team's last win in Colorado was May of 2000. I like playing streaks until they end - not a believer in "being due." Add in DC's defensive woes, the team's struggles at altitude in 2008 (big loss at RSL, too) and the fact that everything resembling a winger has at least a slight knock coming into the game, and the team looks toothless. The only hope for DC is that the fiery Christian Gomez can't channel his emotion and picks up a stupid red card (he's done it before). HOUSTON over Chivas: Chivas has one regular season win over Houston in franchise history. The Dynamo beat Chivas in the ring game (Houston will be presented with championship rings before the game) last year, and while Chivas is getting more healthy, the backline isn't getting any faster. Houston gets its first three points of the season. Chicago over NEW ENGLAND: If taking "draw" wasn't such a money suck, this would be the place. I have utterly no idea what to do with these Revs. Big win over FC Dallas? Check. 4-0 loss to Chicago on opening night in Illinois? Check. Embarrassing home loss to the Rapids? Check. I'm taking the Asian here. COLUMBUS over Kansas City: I know next to nothing on this one. But I do know that Columbus is hot, and Kansas City is, well, not. This season, that seems to mean nothing, but I can't come up with a compelling reason to pick KC here. Los Angeles over REAL SALT LAKE: Something tells me this is all sorts of wrong. But when a team has the best player in the league on a goal scoring tear, you've got to think that's enough, even if RSL is improving. The hosts are also coming off a midweek game, so there might be some tired legs out there. The over might be a nice side bet here - the Galaxy=the Phoenix Suns. SAN JOSE over FC Dallas: Time to chase the big number. 3.65? Really? When (re-)opening a stadium? San Jose has looked pretty bad this season, but I'm not sold on Dallas yet - a road draw against a poor (thus far) Houston side and a win over an also-poor Chivas side tells me less than a loss to New England at home does. Don't put too much stock in the midweek Open Cup loss - San Jose ran out a mostly reserve lineup against mostly RSL's top guns. Anyway, I'm chasing here, but we'll see. [EDIT: Bodog is only giving me 2.9 on SJ so I'm taking SJ Asian here instead.]
didnt get a chance to get my picks on saturday but i m taking DC on sunday. If SJ can trash colorado at home so can DC. good luck
2-2-1 on the week (push on SJ). Up .5 units (Bodog's lines were a little different). Guzan kept me from having a pretty good week to this point. Hoping that I end up in the red, though, after today. C'mon DC! RS