MLS: Week 5

I'm sure everyone needs a make-good week after the draws and upsets of last week. I'm down to just over a2 unit profit after last weeks 1-6 debacle. Could have been worse, Barrett missed a yawningly open net over the bar from 7 yards out that would have made it an 0-7 week.

Pressed for time, gimme Dallas at home. NE has a tough time defending what Cooper does. DAL@2.25

THUR:
Dallas vs. New England 2.25 l 3.25 l 3.10
SAT:
Toronto vs. Kansas City 2.38 l 3.26 l 2.90
Columbus vs. Houston 2.10 l 3.26 l 3.60
DC United vs. Salt Lake 1.80 l 3.36 l 4.33
Chicago vs. Colorado 1.83 l 3.36 l 4.50
Los Angeles vs. Chivas 2.25 l 3.25 l 3.25
SUN:
New York vs. San Jose 1.75 l 3.36 l 4.61

 

This is getting ridiculous. I'm barely ahead still. OK, Dallas rolls over to a team who could handle Cooper in the dead corner, but could handle everyone else well. NE was short 6 starters, didn't play particularly well and still had enough to look the better team over almost every :15 period. The game was at a fairly high level, so I don't think DAL is that bad. The rest of the East didn't like that game; I'm certain of that. How good will NE be when they are healthy? The only note speaking in DAL's favor is Juan Toja. As he goes, generally that is how DAL goes. Toja is coming off of injury so he isn't 100% or close to it and came off mid second. Both teams will win alot.

Today's odds:
Toronto vs. Kansas City 2.50 l 3.25 l 2.90
Not much to pick from here. TOR is great at home, they actually resemble a real team. Dicchio and KC have history so this will not be a friendly toned game. KC goes forwada and TOR has difficulty with that, especially on the wings. KC is on #2 of a 6-game roadie. Stats say this has an effect, but KC as a road dog? Hmmm. KC got shots v Chicago, MLS' best defense and TOR isn't that. Both teams are getting good results as KC is in joint first, has just 1 loss in 6 and TOR has won two straight. The book says take a home team on a run especially if there is a road win in that run. Not sure how that holds up for 2nd year teams, but I'm going against it. TOR also has guys returning to fitness. The problem is KC should prove to be better than whatever level RSL has come to this season. I like KC to get up and down wings, I like Hartman better in net, I like KC to hit a target. If you are worried about turf, don't be, KC has turf at their practice facility and it also rained late week here in KC. Important as TOR wets the field if it isn't raining. Both teams have rookies starting so don't bet the house here.
KC@2.9

DC United vs. Salt Lake 1.80 l 3.35 l 4.85
DC at home and struggling, RSL away is still a wasted pick. RSL has just 1W in 6 roadies. Before that it was 1 win in umpteen. DC can't be this disasterously poor forever. This isn't a confident pick as the odds truly suck for such a middling team playing a quickly improving one. Tom Soehn is on the hot seat already. Emilio must produce. RSL couldn't care less. I still like DC in this spot, but it's tight. I leave this one out if I have a choice. RSL could easily draw. There are better spots.
DC@1.8

Columbus vs. Houston 2.20 l 3.30 l 3.55
Houston hasn't beaten anyone. Coulumbus scores, defends with confidence, rolls into transition quickly, and generally causes problems. Will Hesmer has allowed 6 including stopping 2 pks. But CLB has scored 8 in 4 games. CLB hasn't lost at home (2-0). HOU hasn't won away, nor have they scored much (0-1-2), and they are on the 3rd away game consecutively. HOU also has guys out. Bad combo even though getting 3.55 on the defending Champs is tempting to say the least. Not today. Sigi's boys eek one out, setting up the first place in the East showdown v KC next week.
CLB@2.2

Chicago vs. Colorado 1.91 l 3.30 l 4.50
Ridiculous odds on Colorado and poor odds on CHI, but again don't be tempted by the movement towards COL. that's just the public. CHI doesn't lose two in a row at home much. CHI dominated KC on shots and chances. Barrett missed a wide open goal solo in front of net to gift KC all 3. Blowout might be on order here, but COL does have a midfield. Unfortunately they do leave holes everywhere if the ball enters the box. With CHI they most assuredly will enter the box and that is how CHi will win here. Barrett finishes last week and CHI is basically a 1-loss team since Blanco's arrival, that's why the odds suck.
CHI@1.91

Los Angeles vs. Chivas 2.50 l 3.25 l 3.10
Chivas is hurt, Donovan is playing great and still isn't finishing everything. Becks is what he was supposed to be. Not good timing for Chivas even in a rivalry game where things matter less. Gals too much.
LA@2.5

New York vs. San Jose 1.75 l 3.40 l 5.00
SJ away and losing 3 hours over 3 zones is enough for me. I don't care if Angel and Parke are absent or not. NY has enough here.
NY@1.75

You've heard this song before, home favs and KC. It's been a good formula over time. It's been pretty crap so far this season. At some point teams have to ein home games more consistently.