MLS Week 31

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Turk from Pigs Eye, Oct 24, 2003.

  1. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    Seeing as nobody has posted these yet, I picked these up from Sportsinteraction.com. The odds for each game are just about even except for SJ-Gal

    D C UNITED V KANSAS CITY Time: 16:00
    Price Price Price

    D C United 2.10 Draw 3.00 Kansas City 3.10


    NEW ENGLAND V METRO STARS Time: 16:00
    Price Price Price

    New England 2.10 Draw 3.00 Metro Stars 3.10


    DALLAS BURN V COLORADO RAPIDS Time: 21:30
    Price Price Price

    Dallas Burn 2.50 Draw 3.10 Colorado Rapids 2.40


    SAN JOSE V LOS ANGELES Time: 22:00
    Price Price Price

    San Jose 1.55 Draw 3.40 Los Angeles 5.00


    Sunday, October 26
    COLUMBUS CREW V CHICAGO FIRE Time: 16:00
    Price Price Price

    Columbus Crew 2.40 Draw 3.10 Chicago Fire 2.50
     
  2. bostonsoccermdl

    bostonsoccermdl Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 3, 2002
    Denver, CO
    quick question on the betting: how do you read the odds?

    is it a multiple? as in you pay that number to win 1?
     
  3. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    The number represents the amount you win if you bet $1. If you bet on DC United to win , for example, you would win $2.10.
     
  4. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Well...2.10 including your original dollar. You would only really win 1.10.
     
  5. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    The SJ-LA odds seem out of whack to me. SJ will be missing several players- Russell, Waibel, Ching, Corrales, LA just beat them 3-0 last week, etc. The game means nothing.

    KC also looks like a good pick to me. DC will be missing several players and Etch has been in Bolivia all week and may not have returned.
     
  6. bostonsoccermdl

    bostonsoccermdl Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 3, 2002
    Denver, CO
    thanks for the help... How sharp do the oddsmakers seem to be?

    I buddy of mine (who is an avid college football gambler) said he heard that the many bookies took a beating in MLS and pretty much dropped it b/c they didnt know what they were doing..
     
  7. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    I like KC on the road vs more shorthanded dc. Both teams have way too many injuries so the bench will decide this indirectly at least. Warren isn't 100% in net for dc.
    KC@3.10

    MET plays better on the road for some reason and has mon in NE already this season. 3.1 is jsut barely enough value to take the shot on a repeat. NE did win last week in MET.
    MET@3.1

    Colorado is struggling badly and DAL is getting healthier. Why not take a home team in their last shot at redemption for the year? Hard to take a team (COL) that only has 6 points in the last 6 games. Harder to take DAl - they only have 4 in the last 6. Still they are at home. Value is there for a home dog in a league of parity.
    DAL@2.5

    LA crushed SJ last week 3-0 in a game that wasn't that close. The interviews had SJ basicly blowing it off because there was a red card in the game. Psst, LA was leading at the time anyway. Big value here in a get well game for the Gals. I like SJ at home as an almost automatic. The problem is how do you not take the defending champs at that price?!? Hail Mary special.
    LA@5.0

    CLB isn't as good at home of late. CHI is clicking everywhere and anywhere. CLB's season ends here.
    CHI@2.5

    Main 3 is tough this week. Gimme MET, KC, and CHI in a week of me taking flyers. Good luck.
     
  8. GoDizzGo

    GoDizzGo New Member

    Jul 13, 2003
    Los Anchorage
    What motivates KC tonight? Whether they maintain the "home field advantage" in the quarters? Big whoop. Plus no Wolff, or a healthy Simutenkov. Without those two healthy, KC is hampered. DC will pack it in their box. Has KC scored from outside the penalty area this year? I don't think so. DC will be happy with the draw, KC will be happy with the draw. I'll take the draw.


    Colorado actually did well to come back from two goals down to tie it against one of the best defenses in MLS. (I can't remember the last time a team has scored 3 non-pk goals on Chicago...especially at Chicago) I only question whether or not Hankinson will save the less-than-healthy players from the hated Southlake turf. Still, there's value on the Colorado win, as Dallas will likely give some chances to the youngsters. Plus Nhleko and Curtis have been injured. I'm taking Colorado, but I may wait until I can hear what the starting line-ups will be.


    San Jose really isn't motivated all that much for tonight's match, and you have to like LA at such overblown odds.

    Revs-Metros - pass.


    I wonder even think about putting any money on Sunday's match until today's DC-KC result is known.
     
  9. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    In general I think the oddsmakers are pretty sharp. I have seen a couple of games this year where they were obviously wrong, though. I saw one game listed where you could get a payoff of more than $3.00 for win, lose, and tie. One poster here a few weeks ago said that the same oddsmakers make the odds on MLS as for other leagues and that they know the other leagues much better. This seems true to me. It's probably also true that there's not much betting on MLS.

    What your friend said may be true.

    I don't bet money. I use the odds on the games for picking players in MFLS fantasy soccer. The LA-SJ odds seem off to me, though. Maybe SJ should be favored but not by that much. I also thought last week that NY being favored over NE was wrong since NY was missing so many players.
     
  10. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Well, that was either a typo, an oddsmakers error (for which they don't have to pay out), or it was a listing of the highest prices available, meaning those were 3 separate bookies for each of the 3 win-draw-lose prices.

    After 3 years of doing this I'm pretty convinced that the bookmakers know next to nothing about MLS. Injuries and national team call-ups, no matter how substantial, never seem to have the slightest impact on prices. I'd guess that they just punch some key numbers into a computer (such as records home and way, goal differential, recent form) and the computer spits out prices. European bookies seem to generate the prices for MLS, with American-sports focused sites just copying their prices, if they even bother at all.

    Two things work in the bookamkers favor. One, few people bet on MLS so in the end it doesn't matter too much. It just builds up their resume of leagues offered and, due to the time differential, gives the drunks in Europe something to bet on when they get back from the pub and go online looking to make an impulsive bet late at night. Secondly, there is so much parity in MLS that it really is a difficult league to bet. Put down something like 1.75 3.30 3.75 for any MLS match and the bookmakers have a good chance of making a profit. That's a bit of an exaggeration of course, but not that much of one.
     
  11. bostonsoccermdl

    bostonsoccermdl Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 3, 2002
    Denver, CO
    Do they update the lines once starting lineups are called out? Can you place a bet that close to teh game?

    ie. I am watchign the Metros/Rev's game and once the metros lineup was revealed it was bovious that it was their "B" team and the REv's were playing to win....
    I totally different picture than 5 minuters b/4 the game.

    just curious
     
  12. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Nope. I don't think MLS is deemed to be worth the resources it would take to do that. Most people betting probably don't know the players anyway. I'd guess that more foreigners bet MLS than Americans actually.



    You can place a bet pretty much right up to kick-off, though I imagine it would be a challenge to get a bet off if your finding out the line-ups that close to game time. MLS isn't a big enough deal that they offer live betting. But we can always dream...
     
  13. bostonsoccermdl

    bostonsoccermdl Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 3, 2002
    Denver, CO
    Finally!!!!!, one advantage exists of the league not being taken as seriously as other sporting leagues in the U.S..
     
  14. GoDizzGo

    GoDizzGo New Member

    Jul 13, 2003
    Los Anchorage
    First of all, books cut off betting at the scheduled kickoff. Because of their lack of attention, they don't realize that, along with the rest of American sports, it starts at least 5 minutes later than the "announced" starts. The books account for this on the "big 4" American sports, but with MLS they treat it like the European kickoffs that normally kickoff very close to schedule. (I believe we're in the same boat as the MFL)


    A question: Do the regional TV telecasts (not ESPN2 and FSW) announce starting lineups in the pregame? Do they announce a pre-game before the listed kickoff time? The mini-dishes still haven't gotten everything ironed out where I live, and the Yahoo Platinum package hasn't ever started their stream before the listed kickoff. The internet radio broadcasts that I've listened to don't seem to start unti the listed start time of the match.

    Unless someone knows differently, getting line-ups before the listed kickoff time is difficult. One of the most challenging parts of wagering on MLS is that in many cases newspaper accounts and fansites are either given misinformation or report info that's 48 hours old, and thus there are suprises upon the announced line-ups. MLSnet's injury information for Saturday matches is usually posted by Wednesday, so that info is old.
     

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