I posted a 101 lecture regarding the math of paylays on the previous week's thread. I felt it was important as this is the time of year where favorites seem more obvious as the standings have the greatest disparity. Therefore parlays seem like better bets than at any other point during the season. They are never a good idea and even less so now. Resist the temptation and bet individual games if you must bet. The math is on the other thread. This week: DC beat RSL at home, no shock. Sorry I didn't get a post up before game time. DC was a prohibitive favorte to win. I was surprised by the 2-1 score, I thought the margin would be bigger at RFK. Overall themes: Talent rises this time of year due to urgency, roster continuity, and temperature drops. The game gets faster and those that are lesser get left back. THUR: Chivas vs. Los Angeles 1.91 l 3.58 l 4.50 In spite of LA's good game last time out, Beckham is in the booth for this one and CHV is healthy and playing in a designated "home game" in HDC. Chivas has not last a home game in '07 and only unbeaten-in-forever DC has been able to get a point recently. CHV will not allow the same space as COL did last week. Easy call. CHV@1.91 SAT: Toronto vs. Salt Lake 2.00 l 3.25 l 4.05 Toronto at BMO is normally good enough, but not this time. Even thought RSL is playing on short rest, they are an altitude team and is therefore less prone to dying is the final minutes of the second game in 3 days. Also, TOR has a very short bench with people returning soon, so do check the preview and TOR articles before placing a bet. For me the greater key is RSL's resurgent play recently. Winners of 2 in the last 4 is nice. Not getting blown out in losses is also good. RSL isn't winless away any more as 1 of the 2 wins was away. I like the 4.05 just barely in this set of circumstances. TOR will have difficulty on the wings as RSL has learned how to use their youth and skills out there without Klein. The pitfall here is RSL is on the 4th consecutive roadie. I'm bucking the math here for lineup reasons. RSL@4.05 New England vs. Dallas 2.03 l 3.20 l 4.05 DAL has not been the same dominant road team of early summer. NE is the dominant home team. Toja is still out as is Cooper. NE beat DAL in DAL with them. They will beat DAL at home without Toja. DAL top available scorer is Abe Thompson off the and starting now at T#37 in MLS with 10 points. NE of course has their laundry list of Top 30 guys second only to DC's roster. NE@2.03 Kansas City vs. Columbus 1.93 l 3.25 l 3.80 This game worries me on many levels. First, CLB has a way of bucking standings when facing KC. Home or away makes little difference. Second, KC has the previous week off. After every other week off this season, KC has absolutely sucked for at least :45 minutes of the next game. This both home and away. Third, CLB is fighting for their playoff life and KC by contrast has margin as some other league results have gone their way of late. Fourth, CLB has a knack for getting away draws and KC has a knack for dropping points that on paper seem theirs. 5th, both teams have combined for just 1 win each in their last 13 league games. The argument for KC is that 3 players spent all last week training with the US National team. so the week off effect should be that much more minimal, plus whatever team boost comes with it. The argument for CLB is that thier midfield is stronger and their Argentines are stronger. Will Hesmer returns to Arrowhed. Hesmer's only career win in Arrowhead? It was a 1-0 win against Columbus in a friendly. The arcane points in KC's favor are the standings, CLB is crap away, better on the wings and offensively, and lastly this. KC's problems over the years have been concentrated in August - the very worst month to be outside anywhere at any time of day in KC. August is gone, as is the humidity, and even the obnoxiously loud crickets and cicadas have quieted to a peaceful dull hum. Trust me, that's a massive db improvement. I know, that sounds like a reach. Then again, you don't live here. If you have to have something more tangible, then lean on this: KC plays better at pace and when able to exploit team speed. Greater pace can be played at the 55 degrees it will be Saturday night at Arrowhead. KC gets better and buries CLB here. KC@1.93 Chicago vs. New York 2.28 l 3.20 l 3.05 Chicago is unbeaten at home with Blanco. NY is winless away in recent memory. Blanco's greatest strength is his positional play. His teammates always know where he will be, that's almost always in the right spot, and his ability to delivery balls from wherever benifits every position. This is key in this game as Angel is the single best player on the field, but CHI only has to neutralize him. Always easier to do when not running around in panic mode. CHI's ability to shut down the wing both through effort and the fact that NY will have to respect Blanco's ability to create should be enogh for a point. Because NY is so horrific away of late, I'll reach for the whole enchalada. CHI@2.28 Colorado vs. Chivas 2.35 l 3.10 l 2.94 Chivas away and on very short rest post classico at altitude is bad enough. COL has won 3 straight at the Dick to make it worse. I believe CHV is clearly the better team, but that is asking alot; especially given what should be an emotional let down following the HDC battle tonight. That's why the prices are close. I can't recommend putting money on this one as an arguement can be made for all 3 results. I'll take COL to ride the streak and take advantage of schedule, The Dick's width, the strangeness of ball physics at altitude, and the much cooler temps than what CHV will be used to. COL@2.35 Los Angeles vs. Houston 2.70 l 3.25 l 2.54 LA on short rest vs the Champions. This game has a legitimate unknown quality to it as starts like Ching and Beckham are on the shelf. This is the time of year to bet on Champions. Good GK and the absent attacking stars say take the under here. I like Onstad and HOU's ridiculously good defense in an UNDER situation. If you have not noticed, Houston has allowed just 20 goals in 25 games. If HOU only allows 8 goals or less in the last 5 games, they set a new MLS record held jointly by '99 LA and '00 KC (29 GA). If HOU allows 7 or less, they set the per game mark also. This is the old Quakes/Gals rivalry still. You had better believe both teams are keenly aware of the numbers even if nobody is talking about them yet. HOU@2.54 Good luck. -WC
Postmortem: THU: Chivas blitzed LA, not a shock. Guzan continues to show not only improvement, but improvement on what has been an All-Star level. It isn't just him, Chivas' defense is great and may today be better than even Houston. LA, by contrast had little brain function late and left massive space for Goat runners to exploit. LA needed to score and they had to commit. Chivas did what great teams do. Totally expected. SAT: The articles have TOR "controlling" this match. OK, but for me the scoreless draw had more to do with RSL indiscipline and taking an early red card. TOR, up a man and at home couldn't put any of their numerous shots past an everpresent Rimando. Sometimes you take a loss. These things do happen with young teams at the end of long road trips, it was RSL's 4th consecutive game away. Going forward, RSL did trade for KC's Movsisyan, who has 5 goals in about 600 minutes this year. I mentioned DAL was short and NE were rampant at home. 4-2 NE. DAL did get a nice spark with 2 from Ruiz, bringing his total to just 6 on the year. That might speak well for DAL later this year. NE is just gold at home of late. The draws taketh and the stoppage-time winners giveth. KC pulled two stoppage-time goals. FOr only the third time in MLS history a team ties and wins in stoppage-time. For those who thought I was silly at mentioning KC being better in cooler weather, there's 2 goals in the 93rd and 94th minutes to escape winners in what will undoubtedly be 3 points remembered with great fondness by the Cauldron. Sceptics will mention CLB shots (plural) off the post or an ify call here and there. Going forward, this is the type of win that occassionally lifts the winner to better performances and even more often drowns the team that loses in the unescapable gravity of a psychological black hole. Post game quotes form Crew players bear this out. CLB is a team in trouble mentally and I'm not sure BMO field is the place to cure those problems. CHI and NY draw. Draws happen. My mistake here was overestimating CHI's ability to score and underestimating NY away slightly. It's a forgivable mistake though as NY did have the poor streak working. Chicago evened this one with :20 remaining and assaulted the NY net. They just came up short.