MLS week 2

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Justin O, Apr 8, 2005.

  1. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    From the odds comparison tool at bettingadvice. For whatever reason, for the first 2 weeks they haven't included matches with the expansion teams, though those are to be found on individual bookmakers' sites that I've checked.

    market averages
    New England v Columbus 2.50 3.01 2.57
    D.C.United v Chicago 1.69 3.25 4.42
    Colorado v Dallas 1.80 3.06 3.70

    highest prices
    New England v Columbus 2.65 3.20 4.00
    D.C.United v Chicago 1.80 3.50 5.10
    Colorado v Dallas 1.90 3.30 4.10

    The other games on william hill. I don't know why they don't show up above.

    San Jose v Chivas 1.60 3.30 5.00
    Los Angeles v Salt Lake 1.70 3.30 4.20

    You've got to like 4.00+ for Dallas if you can get it. Actually, with the exception of Chivas, all the away teams are at least worth considering.
     
  2. B Rock

    B Rock Member

    Oct 7, 2004
    The Chicago line interests me quite a bit, considering DC United played a midweek game and faces a trip to Mexico next Wed. and the fact that the Fire seemed to at least share play @ Dallas last weekend despite dropping the match.

    I'm not a big gambler, but there looks to be a bit of weakness in that number IMO, not that its a sure thing at all. Of course I am a Fire fan :D , but I wonder how much line setters for MLS focus on things like the CCC or just use a formula they probably came up with based on the history of the league.
     
  3. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    I'm pretty sure they're just getting numbers spit by a computer based on some formula. I've noticed in the past that there appears to be no effect on prices when things like national team call-ups and injurues pile up. I think that there is so little action on MLS that it hardly makes a noticeable difference if they're on the mark or not.

    And in any case, I think most people who bet on MLS are European gambling addicts who stumble home late from the pub and see MLS matches about to start, and bet without any knowledge of what they're doing. You can't help but make money off people like that! That's an exaggeration of course, but I think there's some truth to it.

    One thing to keep in mind when betting MLS is the parity. Heavy favorites are usualy a bad idea, underdogs often worth a shot. A couple years ago I did a little research and found out that if you automatically took ever price of 5.00 or higher over the course of the season you'd have made a decent profit.
     
  4. Footer Phooter

    Jul 23, 2000
    Falls Church, VA
    I think for the non-expansion games, I'd be likely to bet on all 3 underdogs. Them's some good odds. :)
     
  5. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

    Jun 11, 1999
    Down East
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Justin,

    I just checked Canbet, and I can't find MLS there. Is it not in the soccer section?
     
  6. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    I'd guess they'll be up a little later. They've covered MLS every week I've ever checked, including last week.
     
  7. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    They're up now Eric.
     
  8. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    That 4.00 price noted above for Columbus under "highest prices" was some outfit named "BoDog". They have abruptly changed their price to 2.55 now. MLS is occasionally good for such anomalies.
     
  9. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

    Jun 11, 1999
    Down East
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Both Chicago and Chivas are 5 for 1.
    Can't go for Chivas, but Chicago looks very attractive.

    DC may be tired, but Adu only played the last 15 minutes against Pumas, and I have to admit he looked fantastic. Maybe there is something to all the hype.
     
  10. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    I missed Week 1 on this board - pre-season form, my bad.

    I followed my predicts in the "Prediction league" of the mfls.com site. "Thundering Herd of Buffalo" is my team, WizMFLS division - if you want to check it out.

    Anyway, I got lucky an hit the SJ/NE draw, CLB, DC, DAL, and of course KC to make a great week. I didn't predict the microburst @MET, so that one was a bust. 5-1.


    NE 2.8 3.2 2.55 CLB NE gave up 2 and scored 2 in their road opener. The pace of the game was high. CLB cleaned West popular chick LA's collective clock in a 3-0 win. I like CLB until someone beats them - they are on a 19-game MLS reg. sea. unbeaten run. To me, NE doesn't have the backs to stop everything CLB will throw at them.
    CLB@2.55

    DC 1.8 3.5 5.1 CHI
    I can't see any way Chi wins in RFK. DC is unbeaten in 11 games in all competitions. Dema Kovalenko returns from suspension (MLS Cup Final Red) for their home opener. Chicago will scrap and dc did play mid-week making a draw or DC-asian worth a look. I'll take the black and white outright.
    DC@1.8

    COL 1.9 3.3 4.1 DAL
    I agree that DAL at that price is interesting. Still, Cannon giving up 3 is an abberation, even against a strong KC side. What may be contributing to the number is COL's blazing play for 90 full minutes. COL can run, they are in phenominal shape, and they can score this year. Understandably with no TV, nobody saw the game outside of Arrowhead. I was there. You should be one of two minds - COL in the altitude vs a young team OR play DAL and the hype of potential for the home run price. Early season draws happen in MLS - only 1 last week. I like COL to score a winner late.
    COL@1.9

    SJ 1.6 3.3 5.0 CDC
    Chivas wasn't poor in the creation vs an average DC side, they couldn't hit water out of a boat for shooting however. Ex-Wizard F Matt Taylor being the main offender. Not many of their starters have experience playing the Quakes in the hallway...and shooting can be a trend. If you can't hit the net with time on a proper field, how can you hit it with none in confined space? A poor price for the home team might make me skip this one and find value elsewhere. One point from 2 home games would be a disasterous start for Lalas' crew. Two would be poor also, but SJ does have 5 straight reg. sea. ties. Draw is reasonable, I'll take the $6 for my $10.
    SJ@1.6

    LA 1.7 3.3 4.2 RSL
    2 dangers here. Steve Sampson is quickly accumulating a poor record in MLS and we don't yet know anything about RSL. Last week @MET was played in a 50mph wind storm and noone could aim true. MLS teams that play their second consecutive on the road win at a percentage that makes even 4.2 risky. Add in the bi-coastal nature of the road trip and the numbers get worse. LA will be rightly embarassed and ready to open HDC in style. Easy call here if you are draw-shy.
    LA@1.7

    -WC
     
  11. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

    Jun 11, 1999
    Down East
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is this real or imaginary money? :)

    I opened a Canbet account earlier this evening and deposited funds with Mastercard. The transaction has yet to be recorded. Have other people had problems using credit cards ?
     
  12. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    I've had no problems with a visa debit card on canbet. Maybe the issue is the card itself? I had a friend whose cc company somehow blocked some, all, or at least his, online gambling site.

    I'll take modest stakes Columbus and a somewhat larger stake on Dallas. I'd been doing very well for a while with the very few bets I'd been placing. Missed a couple recently though, and then did poorly last weekend. Could be the beginnings of a bad run.
     
  13. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    This is a very good point. You could do worse than take draws across the board this week.

    edit - Also, the name is a bit scary, but Russian McBet (http://www.mcbet.ru) has what must be the widest selection of MLS bets out there. They even have exact scores, which I don't think I've seen before.
     
  14. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    I think we will see fewer draws this year than last. Scoring is up. They had lots of trouble scoring early last year.
     
  15. Footer Phooter

    Jul 23, 2000
    Falls Church, VA

    I don't know that I'd trust anything from Russia. And "McBet" ?!? :eek:
     
  16. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

    Jun 11, 1999
    Down East
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, I have no action this week.
    Mastercard refused the transaction, and Neteller defeated me.
    I have to verify something with my bank branch, and of course they are now closed for the weekend.

    Anyway, I'll take Dallas for an imaginary c-note.
     
  17. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Fonbet is Russian and fine. The Russian thing doesn't scare me too much. A little research is always in order before opening an account with an outfit that isn't one of the big names, though.

    Another bad week. Birmingham lagely made up for my MLS follies thankfully. A couple weeks of observation might be in order.
     
  18. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Good thing it was imaginary. Psst - COL is better than their results.

    I sucked too, 1-4 for the week. Three ties will do that.
    -WC
     
  19. Magpie Maniac

    Magpie Maniac Member

    Dec 28, 2001
    North Carolina, USA
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've been considering getting into online sports wagering as a minor hobby. Small bets. Fun and games. Anyway, even in this great country of ours, I still sometimes think we're in the middle of the 16th century. They make it so damn difficult to do something as goofy as online gambling.

    The major banks have agreed to not process transactions with online bookmakers. PayPal has agreed to keep their hands clean, too. (Since I have a "verified" PayPal account, that would have been the easiest option.) Neteller has promise, but setting up and funding an account with them has been a bitch. I got an error message and it stopped me in my tracks. Now I have to do the online check thing and wait a few days.

    Once I get going with Neteller, I'm going to go with Ladbrokes. I want security and legitimacy even if it means slightly lower odds and no MLS. They're the largest online bookmaker and owned by Hilton Hotels. Bodog looked pretty good, but being in Costa Rica gave me pause.

    Does anyone know why horse racing bookie YouBet.com is perfectly legal (in most states), located in California, and traded on NASDAQ, yet the sports betting companies online must hide out in the Carribbean?
     
  20. Magpie Maniac

    Magpie Maniac Member

    Dec 28, 2001
    North Carolina, USA
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Scratch that. Looks I'll be going with Bet365. Pinnacle and Gamebookers look decent, too. Ladbrokes supposedly doesn't accept US accounts.

    What deposit/withdrawal methods do most of you use? Any experiences with Neteller? How about FirePay? I know that credit cards are out because of legal issues.
     
  21. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

    Jun 11, 1999
    Down East
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Neteller has worked out ok, after finally getting the account set-up.
     
  22. Magpie Maniac

    Magpie Maniac Member

    Dec 28, 2001
    North Carolina, USA
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Bet365 allows both deposits and withdrawals through Neteller. Does Gamebookers allow the same? I saw Neteller as a deposit option, but not as a withdrawal.

    TIA. :)
     
  23. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

    Jun 11, 1999
    Down East
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Don't know about Gamebookers.

    It's ok with my Canbet account.
     
  24. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    I just started with betandwin.com via Neteller. Initial impressions are that the site is great, especially for MLS, though payouts are usually the final judge of that. We'll see (I hope) how that goes.

    In general I should say that gamebookers and bet365 are definitely excellent, though I'm not sure about hoe neteler and gamebookers work together.
     

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