MLS Week 11 - (Wed game also)

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, Jun 10, 2003.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    From intertops:
    Wed - dc 3.0 3.15 2.1 Colorado
    Sat - Chicago 3.85 3.15 1.8 MetroStars
    Columbus 2.55 3.05 2.45 DC
    San Jose 2.5 3.0 2.5 Dallas
    New England 2.3 3.0 2.75 Colorado

    From bet365:
    Wed - dc 3.0 3.0 2.1 Colorado
     
  2. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    A lot of these numbers seem out of whack. I would favor Dallas over SJ, DC over Colorado, and why are the MetroStars so heavily favored over Chicago? You've got to figure Razov to "fire" one past Grafer.
     
  3. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Tougher to call this week I think. Obviously the big thing to keep in mind will be all the missing players. My initial thoughts are New England, even without Twellman, are a decent pick. I'm not sure how much more healthy San Jose will be Saturday, but if it's the San Jose of the last couple of weeks minus Donovan then maybe Dallas is a good pick. Maybe. Hard to say. San Jose were unlucky not to get a point away to Columbus so perhaps too much emphasis is placed on their injury situation. I'll have to ponder further....
     
  4. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    A little difficult to take Chicago after their performance last weekend, but you're right "Turk from Pigs Eye" even with Chicago's absentees that's a high price considering no Howard, Mathis or Pope.

    edit:
    William Hill have Chicago at 5.00.
     
  5. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Picking a winner in this one is somewhat like a high school janitor picking which plugged toilet in the boy's locker room to snake first. No winners here. I'm personally glad I can't watch this one on the Shootout.

    Both teams are horrid, missing people, reside in lsat place, have questionable coaching, questionable leadership on the soccer operations end, and are currently dealing with difficulty. The only kind thing to say of either team is both have won within the last two games.

    First dc - They are close to an abortion on the road giving up 2 a game at 0-3-1 overall. The one being the April 26 tie at lowly Colorado. Stewart, Convey, and Nelson are at the Confed Cup. I wish I could tell you who will replace these 3, but I'm not certain it will matter. Etch is in yellow peril so will have to play more conservatively on defense. Rimando has been playing better.
    Colorado had Stewart go down with an ACL tear. Zizi Roberts is still out also. The rapids are more lie a slow trickle offensively with just 4 goals in 8 games. They did win the last outing at Mile High against winless at the time LA.

    It's tempting to go draw here, but 3.1:1 isn't enough for me. Two terrible teams should recognize this as a great opportunity for points so someone should get a winner. I like Spencer, Chung, and Henderson slightly over Olsen and Etch in the battle of dangerous players on the field. As it's been longer since Colorado earned a win, they have less guys out, and are at home.
    COL@2.1
     
  6. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Not that I disagree with the sentiment expressed, but this match does have one thing going for it. With only 2 teams not making the playoffs at least games at the bottom have a little more at stake.
     
  7. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    I'm wondering if this could be a breakout week for Casey Schmidt. Colo looked rediculous with two midgets up front last week. They have two games. I have Casey on my MFLS team and I need somebody to replace Donovan. I could also go with Buddle but although he should start I don't think he will score a goal. I'd like trade for Jason Kreis.
     
  8. BerwynBlazers

    BerwynBlazers Member

    Jul 23, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I was thinkin the same thing about Schmidt, I've had him on by mfls bench since the beginning of the season. I bought Damani Ralph after I couldn't afford Razov. I'm going to put a rather large stake on the Fire game, I don't see Razov letting the team lose to Bradley. The one guy I'm worried about on the MetroStars is Mike Magee. I took him out of MFLS lineup and I'm sure the Chicago boy will want to have a good game against his hometown team. Go Fire.
     
  9. Turk from Pigs Eye

    Turk from Pigs Eye New Member

    Jun 14, 2002
    Pigs Eye (St. Paul),
    Is there any news on KC vs. LA?
     
  10. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Any minutia will make the boards, just check them.

    Note on dc v COL tonight: My pick failed to account for Maestroeni's absence (Nat camp). I'l stick with my original pick, but if I was to redo it, I would heavily consider "Draw".

    MO on Schmidt: I had him on my fantasy team (Thundering Herd of Buffalo) also, but not because I thought he would get major time. He was scoring in the pre-season and his price was 35. Good enough for me. I sold him some weeks ago. He could get in there as Carrieri and Spencer paired with eachother basicly eliminates anything aerial, which in turn nullifies Chung and Hendu's wing presence to a large extent.
     
  11. Eric B

    Eric B Member

    Feb 21, 2000
    the LBC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Bet 365's has KC/LA:

    Kansas City 2.75 3.25 2.20@Los Angeles

    I couldn't find MLS on Intertops.
     
  12. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    Market Average for matches of June 14:

    Los Angeles vs Kansas City 2.21 3.15 2.80
    MetroStars vs Chicago 1.74 3.24 4.17
    D.C.United vs Columbus 2.45 3.04 2.57
    Dallas vs San Jose 2.53 3.04 2.46
    Colorado vs New England 2.77 3.10 2.25

    Highest odds
    Los Angeles vs Kansas City 2.52 3.32 3.25
    MetroStars vs Chicago 1.90 3.40 5.10
    D.C.United vs Columbus 2.60 3.20 2.85
    Dallas vs San Jose 2.65 3.40 2.61
    Colorado vs New England 3.00 3.25 2.35

    source: bettingadvice odds comparison
     
  13. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    are you kidding me? The league leaders at 3.25? Chicago at a depleated and struggling dc at a rediculous 5.1? Those two jump out at me initially. KC does tend to struggle at LA, but 3.25 worth of struggle, I dunno. An A-league team against dc at 5.1 is worth a thought, much less Thornton, Razov, and crew.
     
  14. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Oops, misread on the "dc".

    Chicago against depleated MET (howard, Pope, Mathis) at 5.1 is a bargain also.
     
  15. Eric B

    Eric B Member

    Feb 21, 2000
    the LBC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, it is the highest of the books they compare. I would think the Galaxy, newly pumped at being home, at +152 is a pretty good bargain as well.
     
  16. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    over/under 2.5 goals from marathon
    Met-Chi ...1.55/2.20
    DCU/Clm...1.60/2.10
    Dal/SJ...1.60/2.10
    Col/NE...1.55/2.20
    LA/KC...1.60/2.10

    You'd have to be nuts to take any of the overs at those prices. Those are petty good prices on the unders, however, on all the games except probably LA-KC. With so many teams lacking firepower due to national team call-ups the under could be worthwhile. However, I have a dreadful track record with total goal bets so I may steer clear.

    Otherwise I'm definitely taking Chicago. That price is just too much to pass up. Home field doesn't mean much (Chicago won both away last year, and in any case I don't put much stock in most home field advantages in MLS) and I think the Fire have the depth to deal with their missing players better than the Metros can.

    I'm a little less enthusiastic about my other picks but I'll put smaller stakes on Dallas to take a still injury-depleted and now Donovan-less San Jose (depsite a decent performance by San Jose last weekend) and I'll take New England over Colorado. Hopefully Kamler plays and JMM will step up for the missing Twellman. I mean it's just Colorado.
     
  17. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
     
  18. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    "Prime 3" are dc, NE, and DAL.
    18-22 overall with the midweek loss on the tie. Up $18.80 for the year.
     
  19. BerwynBlazers

    BerwynBlazers Member

    Jul 23, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    oh huge stake on chicago
     
  20. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    A combination on Chicago, Dallas and New England pays 23.02 at gamebbokers. Zoiks! Looks like once again there's pretty solid consensus here as well as other boards. Good luck to all.
     
  21. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Seattle Sounders
    United States
    Nov 30, 1998
    on the run from the covid
    Club:
    Seattle
    [R]


























    Thank you Chicago! Anything made from the rest of the day is just gravy. (though that 3 way combination would really make my day.)
     
  22. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Stole my thunder...It's good to be a buck up with 4 games paid for to go.
     

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