http://sport.stv.tv/football/scotti...eaten-swiss-fa-over-failure-to-sanction-sion/ It wouldn't be the club that would be in trouble from Fifa it would be the USSF for breaking the rules and not getting approval from the Mexican federation. Fifa could not only ban all USSF sanctioned leagues from Fifa competitions but ban all USSF national teams (senior, women and youth) from Fifa competitions. They could also strip them of World Cup media rights. So it wouldn't be like Mexico City FC wouldn't be able to play in Champions league and thats it, it would mean a complete disconnect from all Fifa competitions and all the money that goes with it.
The only place that MLS could expand would be the Caribean. And that is not going to happen. Eventually The Caribean will form it's own super league.
Initially I entertained the idea because I wasn't sure of the specific rules. Then I took exception to certain posters suggesting that the MLS couldn't ever compete based on the current level of interest. He criticizes us for speculating then makes claims that the MLS will never progress as a league. Lets not forget that this brilliant point was addressed when I made the case that the NHL by in large is a niche sport in this country. Regions of high support, hardcore fans, but doesn't really move the needle for casual fans like the NFL. When you compare the NHL to the FMF it crushes it in revenue, nearly 6 times the revenue generated by Mexican football, and nearly equal revenue generated by the Premiership. It's not wild speculation when MLS fans target something near that of exposure and viewership, that's not an unattainable goal. You not wanting to consider the possibility seems a bit suspect to me. The strong US economy won't benefit the foreign leagues to the same extent as if the MLS provided the viewership increases. Commerical revenue will be the difference between MLS and FMF. American companies would be trying to tap into American consumers. Considering how most foreign TV contracts are configured, American broadcasters partner with distributors like Sky, and rebroadcast in the US. So sponsoring the EPL directly is out of the question. While clearly shown the base of EPL fans in the US is significant and growing, from a marketing standpoint are you really going to sponsor a league with the intent to tap into the base of US soccer fans? Are you going to advertise on a channel that a large segment of the country doesn't get? Or would you advertise on a channel that treats the league in a derisory manner. As an American company would you partner with a league that the majority of the fan base is Spanish speaking, and watches on Spanish speaking TV, when another league has similar viewership and covers a broader base of Americans?
I never said this league will never progress. I don't like long-term speculation, but you get sucked into it in this forum. Well, the Mex Final drew double the amount of viewers than this league's Final did. And it continues to find new revenue streams and markets. It's still growing. So I stand by my prediction, and others will stand by theirs. It's all good, as long as all predictors can be around to eat crow if they are wrong. I stopped right there. As I said earlier, I'd rather not add in more "what ifs" to wanton speculating, which is kinda daft to begin with. Just name a date, if you are inclined to predict, and we will return to this thread when that day comes to see who is right. If you're not inclined to predict, then it's all good, that's better.
And almost all those new revenue streams are within the US. Which brings me back to the original point of this thread. Why do you think Mexico wouldn't want to fuse with a US league and play in the US a lot more than they do now, thus bringing in even more revenue? The only reason they wouldn't want to, and why this just won't happen, is that Mexican teams would be subject to more strict regulations. FMF owners tend to enjoy doing whatever the hell they want. But other than that, I'm sure Mexican teams would love to play half their league games in the US, even against US opponents.
I will throw out a prediction. MLS is growing its average seasonal attendance per game at a rate of 1.2% per every 10 years. Lets do the math. currently MLS is at 17.8K in 2011 2021 = 21.4K 2031 = 25.6K 2041 = 30.7K 2051 = 36.9K 2061 = 44.2K 2071 = 53.0K So my prediction is if the MEX league plateaus at 25K* then MLS will be equal in attendance to the MEX league somewhere around 2030. 25 years from now MLS will be the dominate league in North America. I don't know that much about the growth of the MEX league, and I tried to find more info on it. How fast is the MEX league attendance growing? *Somewhere I saw average seasonal attendance figures at 25K per game, is this correct?
Well, nothing's saying that this league's attendance growth won't plateau either. But in any event, write your username and password somewhere where you might run into it 25 years from now. Then we can come back to this forum in its holographic interface. The loser will change avi and sig to winner's liking. I predict you will be wrong.
You are correct... and honestly if I had more access to the Mex league I would probably watch some of it (I catch some highlights here and there). Some of the USMNT players continue to go to the Mex league to earn more $ then they can in the states. I am all for a strong Mex league, this will benefit MLS. Also, I am curious if you know where I can find information on the growth of the Mexican league. Is the trend of the league growing or has it reached it's max potential similar to the NFL in the states?
Sorry to quote myself, but I made a mistake. MLS is growing around 20% every 10 years, not 1.2%. Although the math doesn't change, because I was adding 20% every ten years.
You are calculating the wrong numbers. After the 1st attendance growth wave, it becomes unsustainable without stadium expansions which would be a financial burden. If MLS wants to 'catch' the Mexican league it isn't going to do it in the stands, it will do it on TV. Italy has weak attendance numbers, but clubs have much higher revenues and values compared to MLS. If you want to do a meaningful chart, you should look at how much sponsorships and tv revenue has gone up over the years and compare that to the Mexican league. Once MLS tv/sponsor revenue exceeds the Mexican league, then you can bet that spending would have probably exceeded them as well making for a 'stronger' league.
With the current stadiums maxed to capacity the average attendance per game would be 23.5K. If the MLS continues to grow at 20% every 10 years then the MLS wont need new stadiums until around 2025 -2030. I believe the general public wont take MLS seriously until most games have the atmosphere of the Sounders. This takes bodies in the stands, and when the bodies are there then more advertisers will jump on board. MLS can't use the Italian model because the Italian league was already a successful league going through a slump in attendance.
Can we please expand MLS into the part of America where 65 million people live first before moving on to other countries?
Link? I think you are getting confused with total attendance (more teams in the league) with average attendance. MLS had its best year ever in the average, but we just passed Year 1 of the league. So in 1996 we had 17.4 in 2011 we had 17.8 that is basically flat. Obviously that stat is as mis-leading as your stat, also I think MLS will be capped in the short run to about 20-22K for the next 20-30 years at least, maybe then MLS teams can move (or build if they have to) into NFL size stadiums. But I do not see that happening anytime soon. Yes if MLS can ever get to NHL (another niche sport) levels in revenue, then MLS would be the biggest league in North America (but the CAP may still limit MLS teams from competing against free spending Mexican teams).
Brazil has 2/3 the population of the USA, fast growing economy (#6 in world GDP) and soccer is their #1 sport, MLS will never compete with Brazil (unless the NFL and College Football goes out of favor). Brazil, China and Eurosuperleague are my picks for top league in the world by 2050-2075. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
This shows Apertura 2011 at 23.8K http://www.worldfootball.net/zuschauer/mex-primera-division-2011-2012-apertura/1/ Clausura 2011 is shown as 27K http://www.worldfootball.net/zuschauer/mex-primera-division-2010-2011-clausura/1/ I do not think the numbers are reliable, it could be more, or it could be less. If I add both half tournaments from their last full year I get 7,905,999 Total attendance (just regular season) / by 306 games = 25,836 average for the 2010-2011 season.
Chinese clubs may have the financial muscle, but I don't see China ever becoming the #1 destination for international stars. Brazil, maybe, but again, I can't imagine many Europeans flocking there. My point was simply that the United States, by its very nature, is a prime destination for all people around the world for many reasons. Doesn't matter if we're on the verge of a Chinese century, or BRIC are taking over the world. America is the biggest brand name in history. America has global clout in a way China or Brazil never will in our lifetimes. As MLS grows, so will its international appeal.
Well so were the Brits and French at one time (main reason many peoples from their former colonies go there). One thing China does have going against them, they only allow 4 foreign players (one of them must be Asian). Then again that matches with MLS only allowing 3 DP players. Brazil will surprise people, we will see how they do in 2014 (and 2016 Olympics) they still have lots of issues with the country (crime, corruption, pollution) but hey weather is very dang good. All I know is that the next 20-30 years will be very interesting as more countries raise to try to pull away from the Euro dominated world of soccer, it would be nice if MLS, Brazileirato and Chinese Superleague grow to at least challenge the European leagues (maybe pushing them to form an EU wide league). We are used to being #1; but the world will be multi-polar once again, competition is good (maybe not for nature and world resources), I do not think getting to be a top world league will be easy.
I absolutely agree with ceezmad on one thing: The European Leagues would only unite if they were forced to by the raising strength of the leagues outside of Europe (Like with every other unification process in Europe, btw). Right now, it seems as if it is not going to happen in the near future. But you should consider that economic growth alone is not enough, countries like China or the US would have to produce themselves a large amount of players that can compete with the average Bundesliga, Serie A, PL etc player to challenge the European Leagues. That is the bigger hurdle for the mentioned Leagues in my opinion.
I think we are looking at the same numbers... here is the link. The years I used where from 2001 to 2011. I didn't use 96 as a starting point because the league was brand spanking new that year (of course the attendance would be elevated) In 97 it dropped to 14.6 and between 97 and 2001 the average attendance was 14.3. 14.3 to 17.8 equals 24%. So you are correct (I was wrong) it isn't 20% it is 24%. And no the stat is not misleading. I am not a statistician by any means, but it is quite common to to not include the strange or outlier numbers in statistics. I think the first year of the league qualifies as an anomaly. Here are the numbers at 24% currently MLS is at 17.8K in 2011 2021 = 22K 2031 = 27.3K 2041 = 33.8K I think in 10 years MLS will cap out at 22K.
The goal of expansion in North America should be to advance and improve the standing of soccer in non-traditional markets. What would be the point of adding a Costa Rican side - where soccer reigns already - at the expense of a potential US or even Canadian city? It's one thing to add international teams from Central America when you are heavily established in your own country, but since we're a long way from that with the MLS, all eyes should be focused on the internal matters.
All eyes on expanding to the Caribbean, which makes travel more complicated and expensive, creates even more work permit and transfer issues (see Whitecaps convincing FIFA that underaged Salgado should be able to play for them)...not to mention the fact that there are still some VERY good USL teams that have not been brought into the fold...Carolina for one, Orlando another....and I firmly believe this northwest expansion (Seattle, Portland, Vancouver all in three years) will soon include Calgary and Edmonton, to make it complete. Then after you've tapped all of the existing USL teams, you take a look at existing MLS cities and say to yourself (can New York support a second club (Cosmos), can Chicago? Can Toronto?...follow the european model. If there is demand, then forget protectionism and exclusivity, create an intra-city rivalry like London, Madrid, Manchester have. It's great for football. Just my humble opinion...