MLS Commissioner Don Garber on the possibility of a future MLS-Liga MX merger

I guess you are kidding?

1) top Liga MX would LOVE a salary cap. Nobody likes spending money for the sake of it. Specially top buisness people, who are the owners of top Liga MX teams.

2) No pro/rel, MLS doesn't have it and LMX already banned it. No top business people wants that. This is actually a point of agreement.

3) you overestimate the influence of CONCACAF on this. Without LMX and MLS, CONCACAF is the poorest region in the football world by far. They will do whatever USSF and FMF say because they need those copa de oro every two years to keep the money flowing. I mean they already sanction the "campeones cup". They will not make a UEFA move, they would want to get on board before its too late.

4) CONCACAF and FIFA already sanction a Canada- USA league right? If I was FIFA i would love to have another top league to compete with Europe for leverage. FIFA is greedy and corrupt but not idiots. They will jump on board as soon as possible, even better if they sanction it and gives them leverage against ESL. "Oh you want to do ESL? we will throw all of our money to North America then"

5) LMX and MLS would never want this? have you been living under a rock? they have been working on this for a while and will keep doing so. LMX already eliminated pro/rel and they are auditing every teams finances. LMX ratings double BPL' and basically quadruple MLS'. Before COVID I would still have doubts. Now everyone wants the easy money. Every interview with Don and the Mexican Don they say the same.

6) MLS teams are not profitable. The reason every business people and every city is joining is because they think at some point this will be profitable. Before COVID maybe they thought they were 5 years from it. Now they are like 10 or more. Why not make money right now?

It will happen. I know ESL seems like a slap on the face on this, but the more I think about it is more like the opposite. It is the only logical way to go. Unless MLS is happy just being the 5th league in the US and top in North and Central America.

 

As always a great and analytical reply from you Paul.

let me break down my opinions.

it will I can gurantee it. People think this merger will be Seattle vs Chiapas all the time but no. It will be not that much different to what we see now, just official and without those boring gimmicks of "campeones cup"

Mex Fed is the biggest money maker yes. But if MLS is on board that also means US and Canada. Without the top three CONCACAF is nothing.

well that's why the top english, italian and spanish clubs wanted the super league. they are nor profitable right now and they wanted the ease cash from jp morgan. Football (soccer) as an industry is not profitable for the clubs. ESL (and potential MLS-LMX) will be all about revenues but mostly cost controls (aka salary cap)

when money starts flowing, they will be the happiest bunch of all

I love this topic so much and I could go on an on about how necesary is a Central American league and how the Caribbean desperately needs Dominican Republic to become good, but for now lets just stick to the topic hehe

 

Also, you couldn't even compare the leverage between Spain, England and Italy vs UEFA than USA-CAN-MEX against CONCACAF.

 

I think it's worth noting that PSG and Bmunch didn't go along with the proposed breakaway. Now, one take is that they were standing up for tradition and the good of the game, but that is obviously false. Another is that they feared the reactions of their FAs and leagues and the other clubs. Again, toss that in the false category, as both clubs dominate football in their lands.
The third way of seeing this is that they can feel a shift coming that will allow them to get their money, and eat the smaller clubs, too. PSG, especially, is a club of vast wealth, in a time of broke ass clubs throughout France. the collapse of their TV deal means a new one will have to be put in place, and while the last one benefitted PSG more than others, at this point, as pretty much everyone else is stuck in their books on chapter 13, they might insist that they are now even more equal. Really, same with the Bund, minus the TV collapse, but everyone is struggling financially, except for Bmunch and probably RBL. I mean, at Union, we're fine, but as our total expense list is less than Bmunch spends on laundry, I'm not sure we're calling many shots.
You are very correct, this was a shot across the bow. It was not the last, and at some point in the future, there will be another, followed by the boarding and pirating.

 

Ummm....PSG is owned by Qatar, which also owns BeIN and is hosting the next World Cup. PSG didn't go along with the ESL group for a variety of political reasons. One, being they don't need any more bad will towards the 2022 World Cup then they already have.

Two, they stand to directly benefit from the collapse of the TV deal for French Football if BeIN wins that contract.

Three, they are basically top dog in Ligue 1 for the foreseeable future as Lille are set to sell their top young players this summer, along with Monaco and Lyon.

As for Bayern Munich. They will always do what is in the best interest of Bayern Munich, and consolidating their position at the top of the German Football food chain.

If the ESL did come to fruition, does anyone honestly believe that Bayern and PSG wouldn't be involved at some point? Neither club stood to gain anything other then VERY BAD PR from jumping in with the initial group of ESL Founders.

 

This is my point of origin - Montagliani's interview last year --> 1:04:30

Might not be their last try but this failed attempt certainly made next time harder. Expect UEFA to take measures to protect its interests.

UEFA giving more money to the top leagues and clubs is them being aware of what sells globally.

Nothing stops them from spending less as of today. A cap just removes their freedom to spend however they want - Business people aren't fans of regulations.

Perhaps... but a 40 clubs + league would be quite comical, don't you think?

How do you fix the "domestic roster rule"? According to Garber "US laws doesn't allow to discriminate" - something like that.

Let's say there's a solution there... Mexico's pool being deeper would further affect young US players minutes...is that a good thing?

What about the OFC?

See video above - not happening until it gets done in Europe first.

The Campeones Cup is not interfering with CCL so why would concacaf care? If anything, that's more games/work for the players for a meaningless cup until 2023 when a CCL berth gets attached to it. If anything, that's a clever way from concacaf to give both leagues what they want

• control (competition, revenues etc)
• more games between both leagues
• Liga MX wins more US exposure while MLS gets more games against a stronger league.
• A CCL berth legitimize it raising the value of the tournament.

As Montagliani was implying, this might be more about a few individual trying to make some noise than an actual movement like in Europe

No - they sanction a US league where 3 Canadian clubs we're granted special permission by them and the CSA to compete in a US league using the exceptional clause under FIFA Statute 73.

South American football, Copa Libertadores + Sudamericana doesn't count? Would a merged MLS-MX even crack the top 10 with a league that size with a cap salary / force parity diluting the talent around...

Interesting point of view. Greedy, yes - that's why they are expanding both World Cups and CWC - i don't follow your reasoning for ESL

There's a difference between a straight up merger and the ESL model. MLS and MX would not see it as a positive that their top clubs form their own "league". They'd react like the European leagues who saw this move as "devaluating" their respective championships hence messing up with the leagues and other owners interests.

I just think their should be more analysis about the potential downsides than just raising the finger and scream "we're number... ~15 or so" - maybe?

I see the upsides for the top clubs in a ESL model but their was an understanding of the negative impact of such a move on European football outside of such league

The consequences of such a "hypothetical project" in North America has not remotely came close from being been fleshed out like it was in Europe all those years - so, this is premature

 

do you have any evidence that either the FMF or USSF supports such a project for North America? Judging by what happened in Europe, weren't they all against it?

Not saying the contrary but how "solid" are the tier below to support their development?

Not sure Liga MX would be celebrating the death of their league

 

But it's hardly unanimous, most clubs are against such project

He's just one man who can be voted out and his soft stand on ESL was not well received. He's nowhere near what Blatter used to be.

With all do respect, the idea of those owners ensuring this trickle down effect

North American context, perhaps although not all MLS academies are created equal. NCAA - are draftees earning consistent 1st club minutes? Private academies - with pay to play? Will that system compete against other top nations? I don't know

That would be the "noise" coming from the league's office that Victor was referring too. I'd also agree that both leagues have more pressing matters.

Might happen someday, not before the Europeans nor short term in my opinion

 

Very different dyanmic in CONCACAF v UEFA, though. UEFA is trying to protect a money-spinning CL, plus the English, Spanish, Italian and German FAs are trying to protect money spinning leagues.
Concacaf and the US, Can and Mex feds are trying to build a money spinning setup that's worth splintering and fighting over.
UEFA is totally screwed if the massive clubs of Europe opt out of the CL to form their ESL. UEFA were fighting for their lunch money.
CONCACAF doesn't have any lunch money to lose, at this point, with CCL The collection of also rans see the CL money as a boon, but it only exists because the massive clubs make the event a global event worth the money for a TV deal. Strip them away and, well, you've got the UEFA Cup, or league or whatever they're calling it this year (doesn't really matter, does it).
The European FAs went nuclear on this so quickly because they know the power behind football has been shifting, quickly, to a very few owners. The game today is entirely about money, and the money flows because of the clubs of those owners. UEFA knew that Covd-19 had further weakened their position v the ESL type clubs. Their only card was an idiotic overplay on the part of those owners. However, I think it's a mistake to suggest a PR disaster in Europe (which, really, illustrates just how much power the owners thought they were bringing to the fight. They thought it was game over before it started. Idiottic miscalcuation, made of arrogance) stops an effort in CONCACAF.
Stopping the ESL on a long term basis means taking money out of the driver's seat. As long as everyone else is begging to suckle on the ManU etc cash flow, it will always loom in the background.

 

What evidence/proof do you have that most LigaMX clubs are against a combined LigaMX-MLS league?

Thankfully Infantino (to our knowledge) isn't Sep Blatter. Blatter's power came from corruption, let's not forget that.

The professional academies in the US and Canada have barely been around for a decade. Most are less then 10 years old. Ajax, Barca, Southampton, Lyon, etc. weren't built overnight. How quickly we forget that for many ears the private pay to play and the NCAA's were the backbone of the USMNT. Your scepticism as a Canadian fan has merit, seeing as Canada hasn't been to a WC since 1986.

Victor is but one man, and can be voted out. He's nowhere near what Jack Warner used to be

Joking aside, Victor may want to take this "noise" more seriously as well. I get that he rightfully wants to protect his CPL baby, and continue to attempt to make CCL into a money making endeavor. Ignoring, or simply treating a LigaMX-MLS cooperation as "noise" is negligent at best.

What other more pressing matters do both leagues have?

What does a Super league happening or not happening in Europe have to do with one happening/not happening in North America or Africa or Asia for that matter? FIFA sees dollar signs when they look at North America and Asia (The US and China especially). If FIFA has a chance to make money, they will back it.

 

As much proof as people claiming this is happening. It's not unanimous because a handful of owners publicly voiced their interest when they all have the freedom to come out and say it.

The closest you have to a merger is the proposed Netherlands-Belgium merger. Fans don't want it, top clubs are for it but medium lower clubs are against it. I know, different type of leagues but unbelievably complex nonetheless.

You realistically have to expect a lot of push back especially in Mexico. Even if an announcement was made, I could see top club retreat faster than the EPL clubs did in the ESL fiasco.

Good one - was that jab thrown out of frustration from missing the last WC and Gold Cup?

If you bothered to ask me instead where my skepticism came from, it's mostly due to the fact that this hasn't been done before and such a venture is way more complex than talking "valuations" and it being a "no brainer" to MX owners.

Once/when we actually have league officials addressing those complex matters and articulate how it would actually look like, than hearsay from some people and poster on a forum are not very convincing. What about the downsides for both nations in all other aspects of football? Were they identified? Was there proposal for solutions?

At least the top ESL clubs tried to articulate something no matter how flawed it was, here it's nothing but noise and hype. I'll be optimistic when the right people articulate an actual vision while acknowledging the challenges with proposals to mitigate them - That's project management 101 and rightfully so, just noise as Victor said

CFU loves him so who knows. Also, there are rumbling that his ambition is the FIFA presidency

He actually did.

CCL expansion is no accident. Had the tournament stayed in the status quo, the league cup would have had the space to expand. The league cup was accepted by CONCACAF because it didn't interfere with CCL and won't feature the top clubs qualified in CCL if i remember correctly.

So as of 2023, you have a group stage of top MX and MLS clubs playing the entire fall while excluding the rest of the region.

This move had more to do with what the League Cup could become, which could be the genesis of a Super League type structure which could rival CCL, the bigger worry was that.

What does CPL have to do with anything? Merger or not, the league would still be there just like the CFL exists despite the NFL behemoth next door.

He legitimized the League Cup by attaching a CCL berth to it while allowing both leagues to make money however they see fit from it. It's up to them to grow that competition to whatever they want it to be.

If you think about it for a second, CONCACAF League was cancelled and the League Cup looks eerily like Sudamericana or our version of Europa and this was handed to both leagues.

If you ask me, the smart play would be to grow it as a legitimate Tier 2 continental tournament under MLS and MX control but I could see CONCACAF pushing back if they ever wanted to bring back CONCACAF League.

Winning a CCL? Profitability? Logistics? TV rights/company in Mexico who have a lot of power on what happens with league?

How about selling the idea preemptively to fans to avoid the ESL backlash - this is highly unpopular in Mexico

Does MLS REALLY need Liga MX when they are on the path to outgrow them? Or is it a case of "can't beat them - join them"? It's like I have more faith in MLS long term than some of the merger enthusiasts in here

Let me remind you that less than 2 years ago they had a club that wasn't paying their players. Granted they made changes and stopped pro/rel but talking about merging with a league that had a club who wasn't paying it's players not too long ago - most would find this premature.

FIFA put out a statement against the ESL - soft granted - but against it.

So Infantino saying that MX-MLS would be a good thing just makes him look inconsistent and quite foolish. ESL defeat is not a good sign which as I said above, pushing the League Cup could yield bigger results than a flat out merger which complicated AF to pull off. Let's see if Eredivisie and Jupiler ever merge first

 

MLS has 3 of it's members based in Canada due to a special exemption approved by the CSA, CONCACAF and FIFA. That's not the same thing.

It's not as simple as "they have 55% of the vote" - it's much more complex than this and that's assuming this would be unanimous on the MX side. Ultimately, you need CONCACAF and FIFA approval regardless

MLS is a US league with 3 Canadian clubs authorized to play in it conditionally. The league is not sanctioned by the CSA nor part of its pyramid - schematics I know but legally, it isn't overlapping like the NHL, NBA or MLB. FIFA and it's legal baggage is a different beast altogether.

What's amusing is how most people minimize the game governance, legal issues and sanctioning matters while those are at the heart of the matter. Dislike Montagliani all you want, he's right when evoking the sheer complexity of a merger and that it is a sanctioning issue at it's core. His comment was interesting when he said "you're not just merging leagues - you're merging countries"

That's why I said that an "Expanded League Cup" is much more realistic and that's actually what prompted CONCACAF to expand the CCL as a reaction not a merger giving berth to a 50 team league.

Unless the different FAs vote him out - Based on the UEFA FAs who unanimously voted against it - it's reasonable to assume the ones on other continent might not react that differently.

 

Well observed, and for the life of me, I don't know why I didn't consider that this "merger" could basically be business-only, ie one company managing two leagues (and properties like SUM and US-based El Tri matches) with little to no inter-league play. That's a perfectly plausible outcome-it would give this merged entity massive (some might say monopoly) control over the game in the region, and huge sway in eg endorsement deals.

It's not profitable year-on-year, but the clubs still gain in value. There really is a purely economic argument for pro/rel, which is that it leads to the greatest cumulative franchise value (and probably the greatest cumulative revenue across the entire industry). This is because the second tier (and sometimes below that) become a better product when pro/rel is around.

But it's a compensation issue. In a closed league like MLS, converting it into pro/rel would require a whole new crop of potential owners to compensate the current ones for the risk they'd be taking on. I don't regard that as impossible, but it is a formidable challenge logistically, because you'd have to get dozens of new owners on board at the same time to pay essentially expansion fees to enter into a second division (and then probably another fee the first time they actually get into the top flight). Hard to get that many big checks and big egos together at one time.

MLS/LMX would be easier, because the compensation issue would actually go the other direction (that is, assuming the previous mostly-business-only merger is not the kind we're talking about, but rather actually combining leagues).
In order to have a combined league without pro/rel, you have to buy existing clubs out of it (or have a huge and unwieldy league, probably over 50 teams), and you've given them a Spirits of St Louis-style incentive to always hold out for more money on the buyout than you're comfortable with giving them.

I had always kicked around the idea of a Caribbean Winter League, a la baseball, for the local heroes to come to in their offseasons while simultaneously developing prospects.

What stops them is the same thing stopping every league from doing it. They would all love to pay their players working class wages like this was the 1950s, but for:

1) The players themselves, and
2) Each other
(and sometimes 3) the law)

That's what all salary caps are about. Club X would love a world where they got to pay their guys less as long as Club Y couldn't just lure them away with bigger checks, and would love to have more negotiating power over the players.

 

Why I love this forum is for all the great well thoughts replies about every issue. Agree or disagree this is a great spot for debate.

I don't know if you noticed, but no team got promoted in Mexico this year. Not only from 2nds to 1s, but also from 3d to 2nd. Why? audits. They hired Ernst & Young to audit every f team in the 3rd division.

As I said before, I don't see any road forward that doesn't include a merger somehow. It can be tomorrow or in 5 years, but I think the future of MLS and LMX is tied together.

@paulberry made some excelent points here.

 

There's a cool litlte feature on transfermarkt which allows us to view club value from July 15, 2011 to July 15, 2021. if we take that look for the Championship ( it gives us the same clubs, so Fulham 2021 was championship, while in 2011 was premiership) we see, overall, a difficult ot pick apart value picture for the past decade. Now, it's easy to dismiss some of it, Fulham's €99.7m value in 2011 could be inflated a bit it's €147m value in 2021 primarily because it was EPL vs championsihp. Still, that's okay growth.. OTOH, AFC Bournemouths' €3.4m value rocketed to €121m this summer, by climbing from the first, into the prem, then falling back to the championship. Meanwhile, for a lot of clubs, the values are kind of dead even. Middlesboro climbed from € 39.3m to €39.7m. Reading went from €21m to €35m. Birmingham fell from €78m to €39m. Blackburn and Stoke each had similar drops in value.
That's gonna happen, of course. but compare that to MLS. In 2011, the highest valued clubs were NYRB at €35m, LAG at €33m and TFC was next at €19m. Now, NYRB has managed to fall in total market value by €5m, but every other club has seen substantial growth. 12 clubs are now worth more than NYRB were back then, and the combined value of the now 27 clubs is €950m, while the 18 clubs in MLS at that point had a total value of €141m, (that's an average value of €35m today v €8m in 2011.
My point is I'm not sure it's accurate to say pro/rel adds more value to lower league clubs, esp as if we went into the finances of the championsihp clubs we'd be looking at enormous piles of debt and unsustainability as the primary option.