MLS' Club Capacity and why pro/rel won't happen

it doesn't matter what you predict, it will be wrong in some way or another.

You have two parts... 1. Pro/rel and 2. League size.

On pro/rel, business model issue. In North America, one should expect a major/minor league model like in hockey, baseball, basketball. Players will get promoted/relegated, but teams won't. This model is being created with MLS/USL affiliated teams.

League size... MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL have 30-32 teams. They have been stable at those sizes for about 15 years. Even with the new Las Vegas team, the NHL is in the 30-32 range. 32 teams seems to be a sweet spot in league organization and bracketing playoffs for the post season.

One other point, with the NFL, it seems that there are teams interested in moving and cities interested in having a team move in. This gives the league some leverage with teams and stadia/other facilities in their current and prospective homes. How many teams can they add and maintain that leverage?

So, until another league expands past 32 teams I would not expect MLS to expand past 32 teams.

 

Forgetting about how many clubs you propose, 38 games and then playoffs would be too many and would make it harder to take breaks for World Cup Qualifiers, the World Cup, and the Gold Cup.

 

The green and yellow reminds me of Norwich.

 

There's no evidence that 40 is wanted, as you note, but it is possible. On your point, however, I don't know that MLS needs to get to 40 to make pro/rel far less feasible than it seems right now (which is not really very feasible at all). These 40 cities cover most of the UsCan major markets. At 28, there really isn't enough of a market share issue left to force a merger or a pro/rel approach, unless we see spectacular growth in the popularity of the game.
But I would agree with the notion that to maintain playoffs, 38 is a bit too many games, and they're more likely to try to stick at 34.

 

I think at some point MLS will be happy with 32 teams and allow USL and NASL to fight over the remaining scraps. NASL only wants to grow no larger than 18-20 clubs so all the secondary markets can gravitate towards that league. The rest can go to USL as it seems to be moving to more of a regional set-up. The new Canadian Premier League that will probably be starting up in 2018 will take care of the Canadian cities and provide even more teams to the North American soccer tapestry.

MLS: 32 (2 Conferences) Div 1
NASL: 18-20 (1 Table) Div 2
USL: 40-48 (4 Conferences) Div 3
CPL: 8-10 (2 Conferences) Div 1a?

That's 98-110 professional teams right there.

 

I think this is my favorite idea for the future of MLS, 2 conferences of 16, home and away in conference and 4 inter-conference. each year. Also works with 28 or 30 total, allowing more inter conference.
Despite the name, does the CPL notion actually consider it being 1a instead of a solid 2? 1a would, to me, mean challenging for Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, and they don't seem to be talking that way, do they? Also, two CPL conferences with only 8-10 teams doesn't seem necessary, though the travel could be hellish if the 10 include clubs such as Halifax.

 

MLS is smart, therefore they will NEVER expand into every market that can hold a team. They'll want a credible threat to convince the good taxpayers of Columbus to pony up a tax abatement from Crew Stadium 2.0.

 

From what I've been hearing, the CSA want this league to have the 3rd highest salaries in CONCACAF after MLS and Liga MX. I'm hearing a $2 million salary cap to start and 8 international players, similar to MLS 1.0. Owners would be a mix of NHL and CFL people and some others with deep pockets. TSN would provide the TV exposure and broadcast rights might be enough to fund the league payroll. But we still haven't heard anything from the CSA even though they were supposed to talk about it at the Annual General Meeting in May.

The 2 Conference format mimics the CFL and would allow for less cross-country travel. Each season could be 26 games with home and away games against inter-conference teams and playing 4 times a season against in-conference teams for a 10-team league. Maybe they could even do a split-season format. But I get the feeling it's only going to be an 8-team league at the start.

 

==============================
My idea is almost as crazy as yours, and somewhat mimics US College football.
Lets have a single table league with 39 teams
-This year you play everyone once =38 games (19 at home and 19 away)
-Then next year, you play the opposite= 38 games (19 at home against the team you were away to last year) 19 away
to the teams you had at home last year.
=
38 games, no playoffs like the EPL
Supporters Shield would really mean something
(US Open Cup still gives all the other levels of soccer a chance against the big guys.)
Since everybody plays everyone each year, there will always be plenty of regional rivals, close travel, classic matches,
big markets-- you could really customize the TV schedule.
So like in college football, the meaning "wait until next year" or wait until you play at our place gives everyone something to complain about, talk about all offseason.
Traveling fans can also plan ahead on what cities to visit
See, told you i was crazy....

 

Points for originality. Still, a single table with 39 clubs seems a bit unwieldy, doesn't it? I mean, you're sitting in 27th place thinking, meh, almost middle of the pack...
US fans could use a year to plan trips though.
And obviously, in a US league, there will be playoffs.

 

Yes, I agree with these two statements.

The rest, not at all.

 

Sure. MLS 'could' expand to 40 teams. If this happened, I'd want an American/National league with neither side meeting (except for protected rivalries) until the MLS Cup final. MLS will probably naturally top out at 30-32 teams with two conferences subdivided by regional divisions like the NBA or NFL.

 

Why would anyone want join NASL? I know some potential owners are considering a NASL bid but franchise fees and salary costs are higher than USL and average attendances for independent USL teams are matching those of NASL.



Out of the 12 possible NASL expansion teams named in this This article names, only 3 are still definitely in the hunt.

USL Definites
Nashville
Orange County
Austin

USL Probables
San Diego - April 2017
San Francisco - 2018

NASL Probables
Detroit
Chicago
Atlanta

NASL Possibles
Las Vegas
Celtic USA

Fell Apart
East LA
New York United

That would expand NASL to just 14 teams.

Attendances wouldn't indicate there's any benefit in choosing NASL either.

FC Cincinnati 16750 USL
Sacramento Republic FC 11569 USL
Minnesota United 8719 NASL
Indy Eleven 8290 NASL
Louisville City FC 7221 USL
San Antonio FC 6321 USL
Tampa Bay Rowdies 6095 NASL
Ottawa Fury 6013 NASL
Puerto Rico 5691 NASL
Carolina RailHawks 5245 NASL
Saint Louis FC 4900 USL
Rayo OKC 4654 NASL
Oklahoma City Energy FC 4484 USL
Jacksonville Armada 4416 NASL
Richmond Kickers 4216 USL
Charleston Battery 4152 USL
New York Cosmos 4122 NASL
Tulsa Roughnecks FC 3882 USL
Miami 3853 NASL
Rochester Rhinos 3716 USL
Detroit City 3528 NPSL
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC 3171 USL
Chattanooga 3084 NPSL
Wilmington Hammerheads 3083 USL
Edmonton 2335 NASL
Fort Lauderdale Strikers 1310 NASL

 

At some point, we have to sit back and say, do we have too many leagues (MLS-NASL-USL-PDL-NPSL) and too many teams ? We have some really weak attendances in some locations. And my deepest worry, that it will always be about "if you are not MLS, you are no one" mentality. BUT, we can't have everyone be in D1. Maybe we need to consider a baseball style set up A-AA-AAA-MLB with tied ownership. An example would have been if MLS stayed at 20 teams.
Each MLS team would have 20 partners/affiliations with 20 NASL teams and in turn, 20 affiliations with 20 USL teams and 20 PDL teams.... PDL>USL>NASL>MLS.
>Put your college kids in PDL to keep college eligible (or until we can fix that problem)
>USL is for your players done with college, but need more playing time to develop, walk on's, home grown etc
>NASL is essentially your reserve team playing a full schedule
>MLS is the mothership, the big show
-
I know it sounds weird, and there are hundreds of geographical examples for all teams:
PDL = BAKERSFIELD GALAXY
USL= LAS VEGAS GALAXY
NASL= SAN DIEGO GALAXY
MLS = LA GALAXY

 

What if two or six teams are tied on points after the 38 games are played?

 

Isn't that what the market will tell us? If we have too many teams and too many leagues, they will fail and fold. I guess if the top level teams make enough money, they could subsidize lower division sides, as in the baseball model. But US soccer revenue is nowhere close to healthy enough to think that could happen anytime soon.
We've done this math in other threads, but if the US was going to match European nations for professional clubs/population, it would have somewhere between 350 and 600 fully professional teams. If you add in Canada it's a bit more.

 

Based Germany on the number of teams there would be 252 pro clubs but many cities in the US have multiple teams, which would never happen in the US, except maybe in New York, LA, the Bay Area and maybe Chicago. There are currently 161 pro/semi-pro teams in the US including B and teams plus dozens of NCAA teams, of which 9 average attendances > 2,000.

If you look at the top 40 metropolitan areas, I've bolded the ones which I think are suitable for MLS. Miami - Fort Lauderdale/Tampa-St Pete (south FL), SF-Oakland, Detroit, Riverside - St Bernadino, Phoenix, San Diego, St Louis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Sac, San Antonio, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Indy, Virginia Beach, Providence, Nashville, Milwaukee, Jacksonville, Memphis, Louisville, Richmond, OKC, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Buffalo, Rochester, Tucson, Honolulu. Tulsa, Fresno, Bridgeport, Albuquerque, Albany, Omaha, New Haven, Dayton, Bakersfield, Oxnard, Allentown-Bethlehem, Baton Rouge, El Paso, Worcester, Macallen-Ed, Grand Rapids, Columbia, Quebec City, Winnipeg, Greensboro, Hamilton, Akron, North Port, Little Rock, Knoxville, Springfield, Stockton. Poughkeepsie, Charleston, Syracuse, Toledo, Colorado Springs, Greenville, Wichita, Fort-Myers, Boise City, Lakeland, Des Moines, Madison, Youngstown, Scranton, Augusta, Harrisburg, Ogden-Clearfield, Harrisburg. Chattanooga is also sustainable at the moment.

Out of those, you've got a max of 26 that could maybe support a MLS team, anywhere from 16-20 in reality, That would be ideal for a MLS 2, without pro/rel until those teams prove themselves sustainable in MLS 2, with

- soccer appropriate stadiums (no baseball, no oversize football stadia)
- expandable to at least 22,000
- at least 50% full on average in MLS 2
- within easy reach of downtown
- without football markings
- preferably with grass pitches

Once at least 16 teams prove themselves sustainable in MLS 2, over several seasons, you may want to consider pro-rel (if Garber is gone by then).

I think it's preferable to the way NASL is setup and would probably destroy it. I think that still leaves enough teams to have a competitive USL.

 

You're leaving out Canada. You are correct if you're looking at the top three leagues in Germany, but the regions have to be included as well. Clubs such as RW Essen, KZJena, Lubeck, even the asshats at Berlin D, lots of 2 sides, and many others have histories and are professional in a kind of way. They rarely average more than 2000 a game, but some are a bit north of that. All told, the comparative number to Germany for the UsCan would be 550 clubs.

 

Are you counting this as one area? They are on opposite sides of the state. It is almost 300 miles from Tampa to Miami. Those areas are only about 30 miles further closer than Chicago is from Columbus (Toyota Park to MAPFRE is 327 miles).

 

Maybe Ottawa.

What level did you go down to?

449 teams in the US and Canada including MLS, NASL, USA< PDL, NPSL, NCAA and CSL
171 in the USASA elite leagues
109 Senior A level amateur clubs in Canada

And 100s more in state and city leagues.

 

I'm counting the fact that every club in Miami/FTL seems to have failed.

 

Just basic regionals, 72 of them, 56 in the top three leagues, so 128. Germany has about 81 million, US about 320m, Canada about 35m. for a per capita equivalent, 4.3 times 128 ... I have no idea why we started down this road.

 

In truth I don't think the number of clubs in Germany has to do with the USA and Canada anyway.

 

Only thing definite about Austin, is that they're dead in the water .... you haven't been keeping up, have you.