Yes. 15 points--one against Mexico and Costa Rica, six from T&T, and eight from the other two teams--is definitely enough for third. 13 points might be (especially with the best GD), 12 is doubtful, and anything less won't. Hard to say where the cutoff is for fourth.
Still 0-0 in Panama minute 28, though not hoping for much. Best players on the Mex-CR pitch include MLSers Urena and Gio--according to Andres Cantor.
GOL de Mexico! This result means CR has to play for everything vs Honduras in a month, can't back off. Panama winning now, of course.
Looking at past hexes. 2014 3rd - 15 points 4th - 11 points 2010 3rd - 16 points 4th - 16 points 2006 3rd - 16 points 4th - 13 points 2002 3rd - 17 points 4th - 14 points ***CCAF only had 3 spots instead of 3.5 *** 1998 3rd - 14 points 4th - 12 points ***CCAF only had 3 spots instead of 3.5 *** They need all 6 to "leave no doubt".
Talking about wildfires and smoke, this is stunning: When we say the West is burning, this is what we mean:Scores of huge fires ripping through tinder-dry forests, blanketing the US in smoke. pic.twitter.com/ovhshHFlH0— Alex Steffen (@AlexSteffen) September 5, 2017
Just catching up. So I was busy shooting Pulisic last night. A disappointing 1-1 draw against a much weaker opponent. Speaking of Will Pulisic, how'd the game with his cousin Christian go last night? I assume the US romped.
I'm planning to make a results matrix later today to show what happens with various results, but Mexico has clinched. Costa Rica is a lock, not yet mathematically clinched, but they would need all the worst results and to lose tiebreakers they currently have solid leads in. Trinidad is technically alive, but they need two wins and to catch up on tiebreakers. The part to be determined is Panama, U.S., Honduras. The only match left among them is US-Pan. The weakest opponent any of them have is T&T-US. Both Panama and Honduras play Costa Rica, and Honduras plays Mexico. I have no idea how motivated either of those teams will or will not be.
I would love to see that. To me it seems a win against Panama is a must. Otherwise the path is very difficult.
There are five games remaining with one of the three teams still in the hunt: US-Panama, Costa Rica-Honduras, Trinidad-US, Panama-Costa Rica, and Honduras-Mexico. At the moment, there are 243 possible outcome combinations, not including tiebreakers, which can be ignored.* The big game is US-Panama; the two currently sit in fourth and third, and it's the next match to be played. Because there are so many possible results, listing each is impractical, so I'll focus on match day nine with the matrix below for that day only. A few things are clear: winning on the road against the US will all but grant Panama an automatic bid if Honduras loses or draws. An American win is almost as decisive if Honduras loses, especially as the tenth match is the easiest for the Americans. Honduras's chances at an automatic spot are best if the big game is a draw, but they're further behind than it looks glancing at the standings. They probably need four points from two games to advance, and probably need all six for third, and maybe a bit of luck, too. US>Pan, CR>Hon: US 12, Pan 10, Hon 9 US>Pan, CR=Hon: US 12, Pan 10, Hon 10 US>Pan, CR<Hon: US 12, Hon 12, Pan 10 US=Pan, CR>Hon: Pan 11, US 10, Hon 9 US=Pan, CR=Hon: Pan 11, US 10, Hon 10 US=Pan, CR<Hon: Hon 12, Pan 11, US 10 US<Pan, CR>Hon: Pan 13, US 9, Hon 9 US<Pan, CR=Hon: Pan 13, Hon 10, US 9 US<Pan, CR<Hon: Pan 13, Hon 12, US 9 Match ten is each of the three running separately; no telling how their opponents will head into the last day. *On tiebreakers: Presently, Panama (+2) has a better GD than the US (+1), but in any scenario where the two end up with equal points, the US will be at least equal, and almost certainly will have more goals scored (currently 7 for Panama and 12 for the US.) Honduras is well behind (-7), and lacks a head to head with either team to possibly make up the gap. Also, there is a mathematical possibility of Costa Rica falling to 4th or Trinidad rising to fourth, but that requires overcoming monumental GD gaps (14 and 12), so that's a curiousity but not worth serious contemplation.