Kerry Presidency = Cheaper Oil

In further news, a Kerry presidency means an end to world hunger, global warming, killer hurricanes, and most importantly, an end to cats sleeping with dogs!

 

It's a shame you don't read, because if they're right about Kerry, then they're right about the price of oil.

 

Apparently, it will also mean another spell as PM for Mr Tony Bush-Blair or so he thinks.

 

I saw a link somewhere this weekend that predicted a drop in demand. Dunno where it came from and I'm too buzy/lazy to go find it.

Personally I doubt it. The only way there'll be a global oil demand slump is if the global economy tanks big time (i.e. see 1929). Barring that, the supply and demand curves are going to be this (holds thumb and index finger about a millimeter apart) for at least the duration of the Kerry presidency.

Bottom line, volatile oil prices, high oil prices in the $40-50 range. Get used to $1.90 (if you're lucky) gas people. Ain't squat Kerry or Bush can do about it.

Now, one of thouse guys could get serious about to reducing oil dependence and make those prices less impactful. Guess who that might be?

I can't either. Kerry's a mystery on that one. We'll have to see. But I guarantee Bush won't unless faced with a monumental crisis and perhaps not even then.

Oh, and regarding the SPR... There is a reason that presidential candidates always talk about the SPR as a way to mediate prices but then hardly ever do so once elected. Because the SPR is also a finite resource and using it to control prices is VERY risky.

Let's you try to prop up cheap prices by drawing down the SPR. You are successful for a couple of months. But because of the reasons cited above and elsewhere
you get tapped out on the SPR and prices continue to go through the roof, well there you are with your d*ck in your hand and no SPR.

 

It does in this one: http://money.excite.com/ht/nw/bus/20041101/hle_bus-sp44488.html

Just below the mid-page ad.

 

I think the use of the SPR to "lower" prices is well stupid. That being said, still voting for Kerry. Though I will just be one of the 30% in Texas compared to the 70% for Bush.

 

Well, if the growth rate in China drops to a sustainable level (say 4 or 5%) that would help reduce demand somewhat, but yeah I would have to agree with that $40-50 range. Another thing energy traders are mentioning though as a possible factor in the "Kerry=Cheap Oil" equation is a decline in the so called security premium (consensus seems to be that this is around $10-15 per barrel right now). Sounds like some traders are jittery about the prospects of a US war with Iran if Bush is re-elected. They're betting on lower probability of war with Iran if Kerry wins.

 

GAS IS CHEAP. $2.90 gas adjusted for inflation is what we were paying through most of the 70's-90's.

I wish Democrats would take just a single Economics class.

 

Please excuse my ignorance but are you talking per litre or per gallon here?

 

GAS IS CHEAP in the US... compared to the rest of the world...

 

That's right; Kerry Presidency = Cheaper KY Jelly Oil! I hear you get a discount if you present your same-sex marriage certificate in Massachusetts pharmacies!

 

You are correct. However, the price of light, sweet crude affects the prices of gasoline worldwide. So you all are right, US gas is very cheap compared to elsewhere, but if prices of crude oil are being artificially driven up by US policy, they're being driven up for everybody relative to what they are now.




Mostly, however, I just wanted to type "light, sweet crude."

 

Really? Excellent!

 

And a couple of years ago, we were paying $1.25, so what's your point.

While you are at Mr. Econ, explain why my first vcr cost $1,000 and now you can pick up a better quality machine for $50.

And, while you are permorming your dissertation on the economic value of the $2.25 tank of gas as adjusted for inflation, why don't you interview the heads of major airlines and trucking companies around the country. Tell them how "cheap" their fuel is.

And, finally, in that econ class of yours, why don't you study up the difference between deficits and surpluses.

 

There is no way Kerry can lower oil prices. This is not an issue where a producer is keeping production down, but will give up in the face of competition from National Reserve oil. There is no more capacity. In fact, the price of gasoline will rise up after the election no matter who wins, as I believe that the price of it is kept artificially low to help elect Bush.

Besides all the oversees production problems covered elsewhere, there is a big one here in America. Hurricane Ivan totally made a mess of Gulf oil pipelines. The problem actually has a century long cause - New Orleans. The Mississippi, as all rivers, wants to move. The problem is that it wants to move far to the west of New Orleans, which means the reason for the city to exist would be removed as well. So what has been done is to engeneer the river so that it stays where it is, and even adjust its path so that it self-dredges a region near the city. What all this does is make the river send a great deal of silt down to the delta which has created a very large, very steep and very unstable cliff of silt on a deep seabed. Ivan dislodged the silt and and underwater lanslide with the force of a small nuke washed away a bunch of pipes, cutting production by more than a quarter. Every deep sea diver in the world is now down there looking for pipes and putting them back together. It's going to be six-months to a year before it all gets fixed.

 

straight folks use lube too.


not that you would know.

 

Eh, flip 'em over, do 'em dry.

 

Bush definetely won't because his family business, as well as much of his adminsitration, as well as many of his biggest contributors, is from big oil. No way in hell Bush is going to bite the hand the feeds him by pressing for conservation.

At least Kerry, who does not depend on money from the big oil companies, has a chance of pressing for conservation.

 

I think it's fairly obvious that George Soros and his billionaire cronies were playing a speculative game with the world energy markets, to drive up the price of oil and drive Bush from office. Soros did the same thing with the Asian markets a few years ago. George Soros is a known terrorist.

 

Exactly Right!

Let's move "MoveOn.org" to Axis of Evil List!

 

I think a Kerry presidency = pricier oil.

Kerry has a protectionist streak in him, and also will go for a weaker dollar to scale down the current account deficit. Plenty of economists are calling for a 30% reduction in the value of the dollar. Weaker dollar means imports will be pricier. We import most of our oil. Therefore, oil prices should go up if Kerry is elected. QED.

I think a Kerry administration will go further to reduce demand for oil, through conservation and alternative technologies. If such programs are wildly successful, US demand could drop significantly. Not that it really matters, with China and India rapidly increasing consumption.

The Bush administration is more likely to turn US assets over to foreign entities in order to scale down the current account deficit. Bush is very comfortable with terrorist-coddling Saudis, communist Chinese and totalitarian Russians, and isn't the least bit concerned that at some point in the near future, these people could hold our mortgages.