PBP: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump :: The Election That Just Won’t End Thread :: [R]

Based on the overwhelming turnout for Biden, I'm predicting that he will win 538 electoral votes.

 

How did that turn out for Tricky Dick in 1960?

 

Nixon ended up losing, so that's not good news.

 

BREAKING: 5th Circ denies GOP bid to block Election Day drive-thru voting in Harris County—but given the uncertainty the litigation created, Harris Co clerk announced earlier tonight that he preemptively shut down all but one drive-thru site pic.twitter.com/zYylrXyyLC

— John Kruzel (@johnkruzel) November 3, 2020

SCOTUS will be literally the only 5-6 judges in the country to agree with this suit. Hope not.

 

It's a wipeout. Stop the fight.

1323500293011738624 is not a valid tweet id

 

538 is giving Biden a 89% chance to win. An error greater than 3% nationally required for Trump to win 538.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast

Dems are slightly favored to take the Senate with an 80% chance of Dems holding between 48 and 55 seats with 51.5 being the average.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

Dems are clearly favorites to hold the House with an 80% chance of holding 225 to 254 seats with 239.3 being the average.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/

They also give Dems a 72% chance of winning all both chambers and the Presidency and a 98% chance of Dems holding at least the House and/or Senate even if Trump does win.

Final joint probabilities:

72%: DEM trifecta
17%: Biden + GOP Senate + DEM House
6%: Trump + GOP Senate + DEM House
3%: Trump + DEM Senate + DEM House
2%: GOP trifecta

Other combinations have negligible chances.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

 

My wife was good enough to have outpatient knee surgery scheduled for this morning. We had to be here at 6:15. So between the procedure, and getting her back home and settled later today (fortunately, she's pretty proficient on crutches), that'll gobble up the first half of today. Plus, it allowed me to take a sick day from work, so I don't need to pretend to be working today. I'll go on a long hike this afternoon. Try to make something decent to eat for dinner. By my approach is to avoid the news as much as possible today. This thread is one of the few places I'll venture for news today.

 

You lucky bastard! (assuming you can Bogart one of her vicodin tonight.)

 

She had emergency gallbladder surgery almost exactly one year ago, from which we still have a stash of completely unnecessary oxycodone somewhere in the house, I assume we'll have even more by mid-day. That, coupled with the bottle of Lagavulin 16 I received as a gift yesterday, is probably a path best left unexplored. Regardless of the election's outcome.

My post-election survival strategy - should it come to that - will be more traditional: drinking to excess in my backyard out by the fire pit. It's actually very similar to my post-election celebration strategy.

 

It's election day! You have to make a choice! There's no both sides to opioids and alcohol!

 

At about 4PM central time in the last presidential Election Day I made the following post in the EU forum

So my powers of prognostication are not great. I will say today I think Biden wins and easily enough that the pundits and journalists trying to say it is close are trying to sell papers, increase ratings, and get clicks.

Personally as a never Trump Republican/conservative/libertarian I think he needs to lose badly. If it is close some will believe it was the messenger and not the message and will double down in nationalism under someone like Tom Cotton. And if it is close we will get years of whining how he was robbed.

My prediction is Biden wins about 54% of the popular vote and 326 EVs.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/BzkGo

 

I'm stocked up on some CBD-dominant hybrids, Angry Orchard unfiltered cider, and Vly Creek vodka. No matter how things roll, I'm ready.

 

Johnnie Blue is coming out for the blue team tonight.

 

Bravo, Chaser

 

Louisiana usually gets its votes counted pretty quickly. If we go for Biden, it's all over...

 

I'm grading papers today. No plans to do anything different tomorrow. Though if it goes badly too ********ing bad for the pieces of shit asshole mother********ers who turned in their papers later than the ones I'm grading today.

 

But the odds of that happening is something like, infinity to none, right?

 

Late papers shouldn't be graded! (Well, if you go by Individual One who argues that late votes shouldn't be counted).

 

Considering the circumstances ANGRY Orchard is appropriate tonight