Is Ukraine about to explode?

Part of the problem of prognosticating is that you end up being wrong. I will be more than happy to reconsider my positions and provide mea culpas if this turns into something that spurrs the average "Ukie" to the hills armed with grandpa's vintovka. I just don't see it. Zenit's analysis in regard to Belarus's plight is spot on - they'll take their laughably corrupt and totalitarian regime over Ukraine's because the vodka's cheaper.

 

No, some Ukranians are protesting at the moment. And again, some Ukranians do think it matters........but not in the same way that you do. They like one tinpot man better than the other.

Because small scale rioting in the streets is indicative of nothing more than small scale rioting in the streets. I guess South Central LA denizens were interested in the judicial process when they looted their neighborhood, right?

Actually, exit polls didn't.

But your optimism isn't based on anything. My realism is. Ukraine is no more ready for Democracy than Iraq is; probably even less so. Look at Russia, with a far more advanced and educated citizenry. They loooove Putin. You're projecting your wishes on the populace, just like so many Europeans did with the US elections. How could so many people be so stupid? Well, its not that they're stupid, its that they don't want the same thing you do. They fundamentally disagree with your world view. Just like they do here.

But that's not accurate. You had a parliament, which despite its domination by Bismark and the Kaiser was still a body that had to be wrangled with. Ukraine has had a parliament for, oh, 10 years out of a millenia of existence. Germany has had liberal thinkers and a national discourse on the issue. Its a cosmopolitan culture. Ukraine is a country composed of poor peasants, and I defy anyone to name me a uniquely Ukranian thinker/philosopher.

Not really. Germany's struggle toward Democracy is far, far, FAR younger. Germany was, after all, one of the countries dramatically influenced by the French Revolution (witness the goofy Rhine Confederation), by the semi-elected bodies of Junkers that at least had some say in government, by the existence of various representative bodies, and many other factors. Ukraine has been ruled by brutal autocrats since time immemorial.
Also, Germany's population is highly educated. Ukraine.....well..........

I don't think you do. They want Ukraine to be a place where vodka is cheaper. They're not rioting in the streets for freedom, a point you've yet to recognize.

In 100 years? Possibly. But until then, ensuring "fair elections" is like putting a bandage on a mortal wound.

Oh, come on. Yushchenko is totalitarian too. You do realize that about 3-4 years ago he was in the same coalition as the current President? "Reformer" is another relative term.

You can't force democracy. It has to be learned. I think you'd be surprised to find that Ukranians will resent foreign intervention to "correct" the election far more than an unfair election.

Look - you've no basis for thinking Ukraine can get to Democracy quickly. If anything is suggested by the other states in the region, its going to be a rough go of it. A very rough go. Your optimism has little basis in fact, given what we know of Ukraine.

 

This wasn't really MY main point, rather Shurik's. I wouldn't say that Ukraine doesn't "deserve" its own identity (even if that's a very relative term - who deserves anything, really?), merely that trying to fashion one artificially is well nigh impossible. They're trying to excise their Russian roots, yet to do that they'd have to take out most of their culture as well. Again, I'll ask the question - who can name a uniquely Ukranian author, or philosopher or thinker? None of the Soviet era ones count, because they're Soviet, and "Odessa humor" would be Jewish, anyway. The closest I can think of would be Overchenko, and while he's an author I like, I'm not sure I'd be starting my new culture based on him.

 

You guys are oversimplifying the situation.

First of all, listening to you, one would almost think that ALL of Ukraine voted for Yushchenko, while the pro-totalitarian clique led by Putin completely forged the results.
The fact of the matter is that Yushchenko and Yanukovich have an almost even number of supporters. For every ballot counted twice for Yanukovich in Donetsk, there is a ballot counted twice for Yushchenko in Ivano-Frankovsk. (Which brings the argument to a whole new dimention, namely: just how dedicated to democracy do you think Yushchenko supporters are?)
So, the half that voted for Yushchenko is really mad and has taken to the streets, which is also understandable considering that Gore supporters had also taken to the streets 4 years ago, albeit in a much lamer, American, fashion. The half that voted for Yanukovich is laying home drunk right now and isn't heard from.
What the hell does that prove? Only that the Ukies take their elections much more seriously than the Yanks.

Secondly, saying that Yushchenko is bringing democracy and Yanukovich is bringing totalitarism reminds me of those Israelis who were maniacally afraid of Kerry because they saw him as an Arab-lover who would join the stone-throwers in Gaza. Or those old Russian immigants who think Democrats are Communists. Politics are rarely Frodo vs. Sauron, my friends. In fact, both are bringing the same damn thing, a corrupt half-assed totalitarian beuracracy, which is the only government possible in today's Ukraine and today's Russia. Yushchenko would just color it blue and yellow and make more advances to the West, in hopes of securing various international bribes.

And thirdly, nobody is denying the Ukies their national identity. I am sure that, whatever the outcome, they will go on dancing the gopak and enjoying the boiled galushki all they want. But one would have tobe blind not to notice that, beyond these naive attempts to differentiate themselves from Russians, they are remarkably similar in the most important aspects of the national psyche. And this, unlike the spellings of cities, is a much more difficult thing to change.

 

Hey, it's democracy for ya. This happy little country is just as polarized and just as split geographically as Khokhlyandiya. Whatchagonnado, make Kerry the President of the North?
I've posted the turnout numbers for the West in the EU forum. They are just as fishy.
Besides, I really do not think it matters. The only differences between the two are
1) What language they prefer to speak when swearing profusely
2) Whom they will accept bribes from, Europe or Russia

Either way, the Ukie people won't see a squat of difference.

 

This has been my opinion for about a decade. Its funny listening to the West jumping all over each other to show how bad Putin is. Yes, by the standards of an American President, he's a totalitarian dictator. That being said, I think he's the best ruler Russia has had since Piotr forced the boyars to cut their beards. (Seriously - I can't think of another country so bereft of decent leaders.) I wrote a paper years ago arguing that Russia's political and cultural development was approximately 150 years behind Europe. Communism may have set them back a bit further. (The timeline fits surprisingly well.) Putin now is no different than, say, Napoleon III in Paris. Sure, by our American standards Napoleon was a draconian beast. By European standards of the time, he was just another decent administrator and terrible general.
Putin's not trying to rob the country blind. That's the most one can hope for. Considering how much more sophisticated Russia is than Ukraine, all that remains for the Kievans is to determine which former Kuchma crony (oh yes, that's right) gets to steal from them.

 

wow, i can't believe that people are discussing this topic. CNN will barely cover this news and the s*^*t could hit the fan any day now. It is good to know that bigsoccer posters are so worldly.

I did not read all of the posts preceding this but I thought I might add my two cents. I lived in Ukraine for 3 years and have considered this land my second home. My time spent there was in the most Russian of Ukrainian cities, Kharkiv / ov. Everybody there spoke Russian yet all of the billboards, official documents and most of the TV programs were in Ukrainian. I got the impression that the majority of the people there considered themselves of Russian heritage but found it interesting that they supported the Ukrainian National Team (Shevchenko is their GOD) and would wave Ukrainian flags during May Day/other holidays. It seems they are quite confused on their identity and the government is trying hard to create a sense of Ukrainian nationalism. Most children who cannot remember the Soviet Union believe they are Ukrainian.

I tend to believe that Russia is not looking out for the interests of Ukraine and would rather see Ukraine corrupt, poor and under their influence than free, rich and independent. Most of the Russian nationalists in Kharkiv I met want to see Russia as a superpower again and know that without Ukraine, it won't happen. Supporting Yanukovych or Kuchma was basically a vote for Russia and the oligarchs/ high level corruption left over from the Soviet times. It seems that the Russian nationalists do not remember that Kharkiv, one of the most russified towns in Ukraine was purged by Stalin in the famine. Stalin wanted to subvert Ukrainians. In the surrounding villages of Kharkiv, many people still speak Ukrainian. I find it hard to believe that some Russians claim there is no such thing as a Ukrainian.

As far as the election goes, it is undeniably corrupt and I am sure Yushchenko won. Yanukovych is full of it and I find it laughable that people on these boards believe him. I personally witnessed unbelievable violations in Kharkov / iv. In the hotel I was staying at, many Ukrainian soldiers in the room next to me openly admitted that they were in town to vote for "dead people". One of the extra classes I was teaching was interrupted by the dean so he could personally tell the students which party they need to vote for if they were voting in Kharkiv. (if they openly supported anyone else they would be temperarily expelled) This right in front of an American! ( I told the students to ignore what he said) Students who were registered to vote in the surrounding villages were not allowed home on the weekend. They were barred from leaving the dorms!!! Another violation was the fact that EVERY shop, window, school and street light had a pro-Kuchma (for a united ukraine party) poster slapped on it. My friends, who were influential in the city, explained that without a pro-government poster, the "tax" police would show up. Whoever said that many people in Ukraine did not understand some of the basics of democracy was correct. I had students asking me (a Yank) who I was going to vote for in THEIR ELECTION.


Come on now, we aren't stupid. Yuschenko won the election. I know there were violations in the west but probably not the same scale as in the east. You also have to take in consideration that almost all of the media in Ukraine was heavily baised against Yushchenko. For god's sake look at his face!!

I am not pro this or that and actually have sympathy for the Russian language cause in the east. But I do believe that Ukraine would be better off without Kuchma, Yanukovych and his clowns. Let's hope this ends peacefully.

 

I think you guys are playing to much Europa Universalis...

 

Tks
Seriously i have no doubt that sooner or later EU is going to reach Ukraine, here in Portugal we have more than 100 000 Ukranians living and most of them voted on the pro ocidental candidate, i am sure the other millions of Ukrainians outside Ukraine feel the same.
Ukraine is an huge market so its even more interesting for EU to have Ukraine, despite their connections with Russia and despite of the 10 millions Russian-Ukranians living in Ukraine, obviously this would take time, but probably in the next 10 years if democracy is consolidated in Ukraine the talks will start and the Ukraine membership will be accepted.

 

A. Are you 15?
B. Have you actually read any part of this thread? You expect democracy to be solidified in 10 years and see it as a "market"? For ********'s sake man, pay attention!

 

Well, duh! Russia is looking of the geopolitical and economic interests of Russia. As damn well it should. And it is in Russia's grave geopolitical and economic interests that Ukraine sticks with them and not the EU. It's not good or evil, it's just the way it is.
What's in the geopolitical and economic interests of Ukraine is open to discussion. Evidently, the Ukies themselves aren't quite sure. And most of them don't even care!
The whole election is about two things:
1) ************ the Moskali for some
2) Raise the pensions for the others

Everything else, including Yushchenko's presumed liberalism and Yanukovich's presumed corruptness, is window dressing.

Do you really believe that Uncle Kolya and Aunt Tamara in Kharkov woke up yesterday morning and said to each other: "Well, let's go vote for Akhmetov, Putin and Stalin just to spite the hated Khokhly?"
Please. The Russian-speakers in the East vote the way they do because they are against the rampant "Ukrainisation" of their region and ethnical and linguistic intolerance of those Ukies who equate Russia and Communism, while forgetting that the two people are essentially one of the same.

It's undoubtedly corrupt and I am sure that both sides cheated their brains out. Yanukovich may have been a better cheater than Yushchenko, but that doesn't change the fact that Yushchenko cheated too. How can you tell who really won if both sides are corrupt?
Is your idea of democracy to appoint a worse cheater? PLease...
Don't even try to deny the fact that soldiers and prisoners in Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk and Vinnitsa were ordered to vote for Yushchenko and that "inconvenient" ballots in the said regions were hardly even counted at all.

 

@ Shurik and Nicephoras,

why do they even hold elections in Ukraine if the results are known beforehand?

 

Because some people are delusional about the two countries' readiness for democracy and because the two countries want the West to think they are democratic.
Hey, they held "elections" in the USSR for 70 years, when all the candidates represented the same party and ran unopposed. What was the meaning of that? You'd have to be Russian to understand.
You would also have to be Russian to understand why this country really does not want elections or democracy right now. It's useless to them, like a garage-door opener for a person who doesn't have a car to open the door for. Or a garage to put the door on. Or a house to attach the garage to. Or the land to build the house on. Or money to buy the land with. Or the resolve and work ethic to earn the money with. Do you see?
When Putin went ahead and started his "war on terrorism" buy cancelling mayoral and gubernatorial elections, making it the President's job to APPOINT local administration, the Russians were completely in support of it. They don't need democracy! It's not their thang.

The Ukrainians think they want democracy but their actions are hardly those of the people who respect it. Forging the ballots in Lvov in favor of a "democratic" candidate isn't any more democratic than forging the ballots in Donetsk in favor of a "totalitarian" candidate.
Timoshenko has already called the Yushchenko supporters to seize the railroads, ariports and banks. Some democracy there. The Ukies are completely and utterly delusional about their dedication to freedom. Freedom cannot be enforced with an iron fist. They are more Russian than they think or are willing to admit.

 

Shurik got to Molineux's post before I could (meeting at work), but he echoes my sentiments. My two points would have been:
1. Of course Ukranians are "confused" about a national identity, since they don't have one. A move to speaking nothing but Ukranian would have the goofy effect of reading one's own literature in translation. Really, who was the last author anyone can remember who wrote in Ukranian? Among many others, of course. Who in the world makes Ukranian cinema???
At the moment, the only difference is a different dictator and Shevchenko.
2. When students ask you to vote with them, effectively, how dedicated to "democracy" are they? This was an election between two stooges of Kuchma; one current, one prior. Did Yuschenko really think he was going to work with Kuchma to change the system? Puhleeeze. He probably found Kuchma to be too corrupt in the long run, but considering the election results in the West, that just means Yuschenko blanched at a total level of curruption, a smaller one having been fine.

P.S. Tomo's point is a curious one. Why do they hold elections? Because its the civilized thing to do. Everyone else seems to be doing it, lets do it too. They don't fully understand how and why to do it, they just know everyone else does it.

 

My friend i am not 15, and talking about democracy... you know i live in a nation where we had more than 40 years of repression, we obtained our freedom without a single fight in 25/4/1974...12 years later we joined EU.
Now this was in the 80s, now we are talking about something that could happen 10 years from now, and obviously i said --» "but probably in the next 10 years if democracy is consolidated in Ukraine the talks will start and the Ukraine membership will be accepted."
1- If democracy is consolidated.
2- Talks will start.
3- Membership will be accepted (could take another bunch of years)

 

They would also have to ban Taras Bulba, with its frequent screaming references to "the Russian spirit".

Who, oddly enough, endorsed Yanukovich.

 

While the economy has been picking up since Yuschenko's term as PM, it will never really take-off until there continues to be corruption at all levels of government and law enforcement. Of course this isn't an election between a saint and a devil, but the only way to change the system is to vote out the corrupt ************** fat cats in power. The power should know that closing newspapers, killing journalists, and pocketing billions cannot go unpunished.

This IS the formation of the true Ukrainian national identity. Ukraine is now the only country in all of CIS to be holding real elections with truly competing powers. This separates its people starkly from the sheep in Russia, Belorus, and Central Asia that sit on their asses and vote 90% for a Putin, and 10% "Against All Options", living once again under dictatorships of various degrees.

I just hope that they will find a way to resolve the current crisis without the use of the army and tanks. I cannot imagine anything resembling a civil war in Ukraine, but it's hard to know what to make out from all the city council resolutions yesterday.

Shakhtar btw won't be wearing their Orange colors for the foreseeable future, a bit crazy if you ask me

 

Then don't make facile posts connected to video games in a serious discussion.

no kidding.

Hooray for Portugal and the anti-Salzar forces. We have already discussed how comparisons to Western Europe are ridiculous. Ukraine is centuries behind Portugal.

No, it couldn't.

Except to think that democracy would be consolidated in the Ukraine you'd have to think they have real democracy in the first place, which they don't.

 

And if you seriously believe that Yushchenko will stop it, you are living in the phantasy land. Like I said in my first post in this forum, it is only possible if the entire population is expunged to Russia, where it belongs, and the country is settled by the Swiss.

All to be continued under whatever leadership.

Really, REALLY disagreeing on politics is not a Ukrainian national identity. Russians had the same division in 1993 and 1996 and look where it got them.
A new national identity for the Ukies would be to hold truly democratic elections, work hard and live prosperously. Now THIS would be something completely new and unknown before. And most of all - more un-Russian than changing Kiev's spelling could ever be.
But this ain't happening, my friend.

Completely nuts. Of course, it's only slightly more nuts than Dnipro's trashing of its traditional red in 1992.

 

The problem is that two fat cats ran. So how's this going to help? The Ukranians who want "change" just want their guy to win, democracy be damned. Some liberals.

You gotta be kidding me. They loans for shares election in 96 was far more open and fair. The Ukranians will mewl for a bit, then go back home and live as unhappily ever after with Janukovich as they would have with Yuschenko.

 

I disagree. Yes, I'm sure Yuschenko appropriated some spare change for himself while being PM. But the Kuchma regime (how long has it been already, since '94 or what?) has been acting with complete impunity and generally taking the country in the same direction that Putin was taking Russia. Some economic reforms to mallify the population, consolidation of powers, closure of opposition media, and bam, you are President For Life.

It's nonsense to say that just because both have served as PMs under Kuchma, and both have made money off of their post, they are equally bad, "shilo na mylo" and so on. It's the kind of apathy and useless sheep-like resignation that leads to the status quo continuing forever and ever in all authoritarian non-Stalinist states.

 

And the political re-awakening of the people isn't measured by how the government counts their votes. It's measured by the acts of civil disobedience and mass protests that follow the rigged counting.