In terms of the talent on the team, I fully agree. It is perhaps the most talented in the last 20 years or so. But I do have to wonder if, after the Euros. this English side isn"t starting to lose its focus under Southgate.
Wales is a battle hardened tournament team who can beat good European sides on their day. In the past few years they have beaten Mexico, Czech Republic, Turkey, drawn a powerful Belgium team and given fits to the Netherlands. The only time they have been blown out is against France and Denmark. Anybody who think we can't lose against is a complete fool.
We don't play good soccer but nearly no one is playing good soccer right now. Maybe it's long Covid, who knows. So my hope is not based on us being great, but on everybody else sucking even more.
My view as well, England since 2018 is easily the best England I've ever seen alongside the very first one I actually watched (the 1990 version that rapped/sang along side my teenage favorite band, New Order). They had plenty of talent in the later 90's and again circa 2006-2010, but never quite put it all together (the whole Lampard-Gerrard problem definitely was a huge issue), but the past four years theyve definitely put it together impressively, that being said, we are lucky that they're coach isn't a complete genius. Great man manager, it seems, great at building a defense, but man is he ever wasteful of his attacking talent, and far, far, far too conservative, but until they're actually punished for those issues, few will take the critique seriously, they'll just point to the semifinal and final, and say, "nothing's been close to that, quit complaining,", but it's important to critique everything, the strengths and the weaknesses and it definitely appears that they can't seem to put together an approach that maximized what is a bountiful supply of attacking weapons. It hasn't hurt them too much yet until June, and hopefully the issues crop up again against us this coming winter, but yeah, their talent is good enough to win it all. In the main thread I'm pretty stunned by the general perception that Brazil and Argentina, and then a couple of Euro sides are the big sides (usually some combo of France+ 1 of Spain, Germany, Portugal or Denmark) are the real contenders and a ton of them dont seem to rate England. I don't get it. The past two major tournaments England was clearly a top 2-3 side in the world and/or Europe, that makes them a contender if they continue to kill it, and it's worth noting they won the U17 and U20 WC's in 2017, and just won the UEFA '19 championship as well, so, definitely legit side. As for the fans, I think the '21 debacle speaks for itself, they flushed what was a somewhat rehabbed reputation from the 80's straight back down the toilet w/that ---- show performance and rightfully earned a bad reputation from their behavior. In my experience online in these forums, the tag applies, but it's important to note, it applies to the examples you meet that hold it, obviously not everyone. We should know, on these boards alone the USMNT fan base is quite varied both in attitude about the team as well as temperament, the same as any fan base in the world including England, but a rep like theirs doesn't suddenly materialize out of nowhere for no reason. There's a reason I never attended a Raiders game in an opponents jersey, nor a game in Philly etc, same deal.
I'm not really buying. Ukraine outplayed them and were incredibly unlucky to lose that match. The Belgium home draw was after Belgium had already qualified for the World Cup, still a good result, but not remotely as impressive as it would have been if it had occurred mid-qualifying, which is what the Czech's pulled off, instead the Welsh beat a team of Belgium backups on the final matchday of qualifying when they were already through. Credit to Wales for beating the Czech's in the dying minutes of regulation at home (82nd 1-0) and drawing them on the road, but beyond that, their qualifying campaign was nothing worthy of note. The Euro's were actually more impressive, in the group stage anyway, they tied a good Swiss team, pounded a bad Turkey team, and only lost 1-0 to Italy before Denmark took them out to the woodshed and beat the ---- out of them 4-0. Hmm, classic example of me disagreeing with myself by the end of a listing of the evidence. Looking at all that, I honestly don't know what you take away from it? What did they do exactly in qualifying or the Euro's? I like the Swiss result, a lot, though Id need to rewatch the game to get a sense of whether that was against the run of play, but honestly, Turkey was ---- that tournament, god awful, Italy beat them, Denmark kicked the hell out of them (though they managed to hold the beating off till the 2nd half), and in qualifying their group was Belgium, Czech Republic, Belarus, Estonia and themselves. In other words they had a third tier Euro side in the Czech's who hit a high water mark in the Euro's before looking much crappier in qualifying, a Belgium side they got the opener against, only to get trashed 3-1 on the road, then got to play them at home on the final matchday when Belgium was already partying and rolled out a mostly backup lineup (my exact fear for the England-Wales matchday 3 game, for what its worth), and the other two opponents, Belarus and Estonia are basically road apples in the group. So why should we rate them? They beat Ukraine because they were playing at home, got a fluke own goal, got the benefit of Ukraine having not played in months due to a war, and still got played off the field performance wise in the game. Honestly I just don't see it, at all. I think they're a good, tough hard out caliber side that always play hard, but I don't think they're talented and it's very much a positive that I think they aren't likely to be respectful of us in the same way our Central American collection of nemesis sides are. I think they'll be very, very, very surprised at how much speed we have on the flanks, and the way we can boss a game in the middle, assuming we're reasonably healthy. Again, could they beat us? Yep. Could they draw us? Yep. But are they better than us? I see no evidence that they should beat us or draw us unless we produce a garbage game and we're certainly capable of that (home Honduras NL, road and home vs El Salvador in 3 games, road vs Panama, road vs Costa Rica and Canada). If we play like that we can lose, or draw for sure, but if we show up reasonably healthy, and ready, we win, period. As an example, Canada circa qualifying would beat the ---- out of this Wales team, easy. I feel the same way about us, we should, but unlike Canada, we struggle to produce consistently game to game, so anything could happen. While Iran is in the crapper right now, if they rediscover their qualifying form, and their Asian Cup form, they worry me, the only reasons Wales concern me in the slightest are 4 fold: 1.) Bale. Give him a set piece or a moment and he can still get it done, and he make get games against guys like Zimmerman and Long etc who might start and then will have stronger intel). 2.) Our inconsistency. Our performances have been consistently inconsistent. That alone gives reason to be nervous. 3. Injuries: This team has sustained an astounding amount of injuries to its core group over the past few years, the only position that seems to consistently stay reasonably healthy is the bulk of the admittedly uninspiring for now, striker group. Wing Forwards, CM's, Fullbacks, CB's, and Keepers have all been injured repeatedly over and over going back to Adams year long absence circa 2019-2020. 4. The Match schedule, which was a god send to Wales. Admittedly, this is only true so long as England pulls 6 points out of its first two matches, but when it comes to World Cups historically, you want 1 of 2 types of teams on the final match day: #1: A team that's imploded and sucks and just wants to go home and isn't mentally into matchday 3 or #2 A favorite that rests guys on yellows and starters after winning their opening 2 matches. We got #1 but Wales got #2, and unless we pull points off England in matchday 2, the possibility that Wales advances largely because England doesn't give a ---- and rests guys on yellows and players in general is a HUGE concern, and while this was always a concern cup to cup historically, its even more of a concern in a condensed cup like this where the matches have 24 hours less rest time than typical. I expect us to advance, but if we don't, I expect Wales to get through because of the advantage they get in England resting guys on matchday 3. I think that's really the scenario, so it makes it absolutely critical that we beat Wales on matchday 3, hopefully pound the hell out of them, and then either win, draw or lose by only 1 to England so GD favors us and we can get the business done against Iran. I should add that if Steffen's in goal, I retract everything considering he could blow the game straight out of his backside considering his incredibly horrendous decision making skills in and outside the box.
No need to be afraid, but there's no reason to feel overly confident either. We could win, lose or draw to any team in our group. I know that sounds very "duh," but there's really no way to predict these games. Just watch and hope for the best.
World Cup in November. Let's hope Covid is done this winter, because if the masks and vaccine requirements for travel are reinstated, it's going to be pandemonium. We'll only know in early October how things are shaping up, though.
I’m not afraid, as this team will fight. But we could be three and out and it wouldn’t be surprising. The real battle is which Concacaf team looks the best despite not impressing too much overall. Some very serious bragging rights are up for grabs.
Ehhhh, fans will argue over this to the end of time because we have results based fans, and performance based fans. El Tri finished ahead of us in qualifying. El Tri also currently sucks. Their performance is qualifying was putrid, they were "outperformed" in every single match against Canada and the US in qualifying, and beaten by the US in four consecutive matches, and Canada outperformed them outright in 3 consecutive matches across '21-'22. Didn't change the fact that El Tri grinded away, used the benefit of their experience and familiarity with playing in Central America to pile up road points and actually tie Canada on points by the end. But they still sucked, their fan base knows it, we know it, all of Concacaf know it. This isn't 1986-2018 El Tri, this is some shrunken, pitiful, vastly inferior version that simply can't seem to produce actual chances and goals with any regularity despite some pretty impressive talent in the attacking end, if not in midfield or on defense (simply too old). El Tri should qualify to the knockouts most easily, Poland is garbage, Saudi Arabia has been a perennial punching bag cycle after cycle, Argentina will gut them like a bear does salmon, but still, their path to the knockouts is easy as pie. In fairness to El Tri, ours should be too. Wales is garbage, at least in my view, they are a bunch of worker bee's and an immensely talented by very old Bale and a keeper that stood on his head in the playoff and that's it. Iran just fired and rehired their coach, were the opposite Coin to Canada's disastrous june, losing the window entirely beyond a match they got curb stomped in against an Algerian B team. But I do like their increasingly competent performance across their last 3 world cups ('06 to '14 to '18, better every cycle), and they held steady in qualifying and at the Asian Cup playing consistently like a top 3-4 side in the region. Organized, familiar with each other and w/a couple of elite attakcing weapons. Then England. El Tri and the US basically had an exceptionally similar draw, I just happen to think Wales is a touch better Poland, and Iran is a touch better than Saudi Arabia and England a bit better than Argentina. We'll see though. Canada's failure to to jump into pot 3 really seemed to be a disaster, they ended up in group 4 instead of 3, and then got a not surprising, highly difficult draw, but honestly, it's not impossible either. Belgium is an aging side exceedingly vulnerable to the attacking talent Canada has. Morocco gave up 3 goals to us in that friendly, but still strike me as a very solid side, played well in qualifying, and well enough in the Cup of Nations. Croatia is the Wild card there. Nobody knows what to expect from that side that seems to ebb and flow every 8 years or so, building great teams periodically sandwiched around aging, solid teams (1998 and 2018 being the high points obviously) but like Belgium, they are old and vulnerable. Canada basically drew 2 of the best 6 sides at the 2018 World Cup, plus a perennial second tier CAF power. They've got the toughest road, but they were also the best coached and most consistent concacaf side in 2021-2022. If I were to bet, for now, what might happen, I'd bet that: #1 the US would advance with 6 points and play the Netherlands in the Round of 16. #2 El Tri would advance and get obliterated by France in the Round of 16 #3 Canada would shock the world either against Belgium, or Croatia, but still finish in 3rd place anyway.
The three problems for us are striker, keeper & defensive square. The LB problem seem to have been solved by Antonee, so we better pray he's healthy in November. After him, the fall is steep. We qualified scoring only one goal away from home outside the destruction of that sorry Honduras in SPS. That is somewhat worrisome. We have never had such a weak bunch of goalkeepers are we do now. The Robinson - Zimmerman pair had looked good, but with Miles out, the situation got troublesome. Berhalter has compensated giving Musah a more defensive role to support Adams in covering the middle, but our defensive square (Zimm-Long-Adams-Musah) needs time to gel. It's not an ideal situation, and people are going to blame failure on certain players (I'd bet money Long will get blamed even for Pulisic missing an open net), so I don't feel particularly confident about surviving the group. It's a 50/50 this time.
And those are big ones. I think the defensive square, and in my opinion it's more just the center back pairing, could be a deciding factor on success in Qatar. Cohesion between CBs and a solid understanding between them is crucial to keeping goals out of the back of the net, especially given that Antonee and Dest both have their own defensive frailties. With only two games before the tournament starts, that's my biggest concern, because Gregg may also be of the opinion that CB cohesion is important, which would mean that Long starts, and I just don't think he's up for it. But would love to be proven wrong come November 21st...
Berhalter has to be aware that he is up against more than this or that player. He is up against some smart managers who will look for our weaknesses and exploit all of them.
Sitting here, after a long day of work, the above quote prompted an unsettling moment of clarity I’d not ever fully considered. When we’ve done well at the World Cup, I almost feel teams underestimated us, and didn’t properly prepare. That’s not going to be the case this time. Those days are over. They are probably studying game tape as I write this!
I highly doubt that. The World Cup is extremely prestigious, and we are always playing teams of professional soccer players, players at the top of the professional game if we're talking about top nations. At this level, you'd need compelling evidence to suggest that teams simply "didn't properly prepare" for an opponent at any point on the World Cup stage. Soccer is a highly variable game, and the nature of the game allows for upsets. In the WC playoff, Italy didn't lose to North Macedonia because they didn't care, or because nobody on Italy was prepared, or because Italy didn't know what North Macedonia was going to do. They lost because sometimes such things happen in soccer. It is what it is.
I’m old… so I think I’m anchored on that 2002 Portugal game as an example of what I’m talking about. In the past, I’d read that Portugal hadn’t really scouted and/or prepared for the USA team much. Maybe that isn’t true? I dunno. In my mind, that game was a big turning point for the program. But I don’t think any country, in today’s era, will make the same mistake Portugal purportedly made.
I would add some nuance to that: #1: The attack was god awful at El Salvador, at Panama w/backups, at Jamaica. #2: The attack was solid w/possession at Canada, but didn't produce many chances. #3: The attack was excellent at Azteca. It is not an exaggeration to argue that that was easily the best performance we've ever produced at Azteca, and that we were extraordinarily unlucky to come away with only a draw in the match: 1.26-.4 xG tells the tail pretty succinctly and considering the view of Pefok and Pulisic's misses after this match, most would've expected much higher xG. #4: The attack started the implosion of Honduras. Preceeding the match Honduras was fine, Honduras would implode after that second half against the US. #5: While the team imploded at Costa Rica, the performance there was probably the best US performance at Costa Rica since they nearly drew them back in '97, falling 2-3 instead. The first half was largely one of US dominance, the 2nd half imploded due to Steffen's incompetence. In terms of road performance, you had 3 clear stinkers (El Salvador, Panama, and Jamaica), one mediocre performance (Canada-lots of possession, not enough chances), 2 quality performances (at Honduras and at Mexico), and 1 surprising one, at Costa Rica. I think LB is indeed scary as hell if we lose Jedi, but it's always been a disaster historically, usually we played a CB out of position there, or a guy who'd never be on any WC team EVER unless he was a LB. This time we have a good one, and some potentially reasonable ones like Vines, and I hope, Paredes, and a few others, but yes, it's scary. Keeper is complicated: Steffen is a gaffe and judgment mistake machine, Horvath seems to be either elite, or WTF, Johnson is more of Horvath, and Turner is a shot stopper extraordinare who will be picking up splinters. To me, Keeper is simple: go with Turner. Done. If not Turner, roll the dice with Gaga, gives him experience and in a short 3-4 game window, I'm not sold the lack of experience will be as big of a risk, as steffen, Horvath and Johnson's penchant for making howlers a regular part of their game plan (but again, I'd just start Turner, and move on, in terms of my 3, I'd take Turner, Horvath and Gaga). As for CB pairing, the reason Long would be blamed is because he's either been hurt, or stunk for more than a year running, he shouldn't be starting over Crystal Palace's 20 million dollar man, nor JAB. We'll see. I expect we could be in for an U20 WC style experience, where we see mighty performances like we saw against France and Nigeria in '19, or Brazil and Uruguay in '07, or Ecuador and Senegal in '17, alongside some wtf moments like losing to Austria in '07, getting played off the field in '17, or looking a pale immitation of the team that beat France in the following match against Ecuador in '19 (in fairness, when we saw the lineups in the youth forum, we all hung our heads in shame, predicting, in horrifying fashion, that starting Mendez and Durkin in midfield would prove a disaster, and they were). My expectation is that the team will show huge in games, probably two of them, maybe 3, but they'll also totally ---- the bed in crazy youthful fashion at least once, I just am not sure when. Currently my expectation is that we'll crush Wales, we'll shock England (draw or win) and then fail to beat Iran. I think Iran is the hidden land mine. We'll see though. I do think predicting a weird, let down, garbage performance, like Iran in '98, Poland in '02, Ghana 2nd half after the ref hosing in '06, Slovenia first half in '10, is more than reasonable. These are very, very, very young players with zero WC experience playing in the weirdest WC in more than a decade (no alcohol in stadiums!!!!, being playing in a ridiculous host nation, one city wide, and in winter). Weird things are definitely going to happen, though I'm suspecting other than maybe one surprise CAF team (and maybe USA if we're lucky) it will be the usual suspects in the Quarters, Semi's and Final.
No doubt, the lack of reps with our CB's and D-Mid combo is a HUGE problem. Long has been hurt, and is way too uneven, Richards has been hurt lately, and when healthy wasn't consistent (the good news with Richards is that he played with Dest on the U20 team so at least there is familiarity there). If nothing else, it did feel like our first choice MF, and our wing forwards were really starting to gell after the March and June windows. In march they sliced and diced Mexico, destroyed Panama, and produced the best road half we've produced in Costa Rica since 1997 (before Steffen and the D ruined it), in the June window they produced plenty of chances against Morocco and Uruguay (the D was iffy no doubt), and were also reasonably good in the NL games. I feel like the attack is finally coming around, but defending clearly was a problem in the June Window, and in the Panama and Costa Rica matches, cohesion and communication and reps are almost certainly a HUGE part of the problem, subtract Robinson and we basically ended up w/going back to totally raw unfamiliar CB pairings, generally between the #5 guy and the #2 or #3 guy in Zim. A disaster against England waiting to happen. Praying Richards can win the job with his play in August and September, and shake off the rust of no familiarity in September. Probably a pipe dream, but at least the talent is there.
Hopefully the English and Welsh confidence bleeds into their staff's, their fans certainly seem to think we'll be easy works. Hoping that holds up, so we can surprise them in four months.