How Do You Rate the Chances of a Military Confrontation Between the US and Iran?

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Iranian Monitor, Jul 1, 2005.

  1. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No too chicken to actually fight your own wars, you would rather pay others to get killed instead. Hezbollah.
    no, wuss is more like it.
    Russians didn't do so well in afghanistan,mainly due to US equipment and US training of the opposition.

    Not completely defenseless, I did not say that, but I would say that there is a very limited capability there, nothing that could deter any US attack though.
    So you don't deny your ignorance, itself not a big deal, but your stupidity either huh? Instead you put some useless drivel about me trying to insult you? Hell being you is a big enough insult. Way to run away from your country to the west to get a real education, and way not to be willing to join your military to stand up for what you believe in. Guess being a keyboard warrior is the best you can do right?
     
  2. Kamran

    Kamran Member

    Nov 19, 2004
    Melbourne - AUS
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    yeap just like Saddam, Taliban and MEK...
    :rolleyes:
    ironic that you talk about Iran getting others to fight their wars!... anyways Russians being unsuccessful for a period doesn't mean they are staying like that forever!
    yeah OK! :rolleyes:
    another try.... 2 - 0, make sure you keep the score ;)
     
  3. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Don't every buy that line. Iran does see the US trying to dominate the region politically. Iran does have problems with US foreign policy. Iran, however, does not have any problems with US culture per se. Except to the extent the "cutlure" becomes itself one of the vehicles to attack Iran politically, for 8 years Iran had a president who spoke highly of American culture. There are millions of Iranians, both in Iran and Iranian Americans, who while seeing some negative elements in American culture, see a lot of positive in it as well. Even hardliners in Iran, such as Ahmadinejad, see American ideology (when not coupled with force) as good. Good in the sense of being a strong challenger and competitor to help Iran enrich its culture, and its ideology, and be stronger for it.

    This is again mere propaganda. Iran's nuclear program is strongly supported in Iran by all sides, and that program is crticial to Iran's future well being. Iran needs nuclear energy as its oil will run out, as its own growing energy demand is already enough (if it wasn't met by other sources) to have eated up its entire oil exports.

    Iran has no problems not developing nuclear weapons, especially if it is given some simple security guarantees. It will not give up its right to full nuclear energy independence, specially when it lives in a world where the US has tried for 25+ years to stragulate its economic well being through sanctions and other means.

    Nonetheless, Iran is actually a rather growing economy, with average growth rates for the past decade that America would love to have. The growing divide between the richer and poorer Iranians is not a reflection of the latter getting poorer in absolute terms; it mostly reflects how roughly 10% of Iran's population live very comfortable lives while the rest are struggling to make ends meet (70%), while there are pockets where people live below the poverty line.

    On the latter point, let me assure you that many of the "economic figures" you hear (citing so-called opposition sources) are entirely ficititious. For instance, while Iran has a major problem producing jobs for one million young people who enter the workforce every year (we had a very high population growth in the 1980s, which incidentally has been turned around by a model of population growth), the overall unemployment rate in Iran is nothing like 30%. Rather, some 30% of Iran's youngsters (recent college graduates) are unemployed or can't find appropriate jobs. Similarly, the number of Iranians living in poverty is 10%, whatever else might be said by "opposition sources".

    Iran's overall GDP (based on the parity index) is more than 500 billion a year. By the middle of the next decade, Iran will have a GDP close to a trillion dollars if growth rates continue as their projected rate. Iran, besides being OPEC's second oil exporter and holding the world's second largest reserves of natural gas, is the top steel producer in the Middle East, is the top auto manufactuer in the Middle East, is among the top countries in Asia in a host of other industrial and technological fields. Iran is nothing like what you imagine it to be.
     
  4. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I see you didn't answer anything I said, thus proving my point.
     
  5. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Saddam was an ally of convience when he was butchering Iranians. You see how easily we took him out. Taliban, again we did not support the taliban, we supported the fighters fighting the Soviets. We agains easily disposed of the Taliban. MEK. Where is your proof? Oh that's right, everytime I ask you for proof of that you either disappear or avoid the question.
     
  6. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    The MEK is right now supported financially by Israel as well as pro-Israeli groups in the United States. There are hundreds of members of Congress who have been lobbying, at Aipac's bequest, to have the MEK removed from the terrorism list. They include both Democrats and Republicans. Anyone who takes Aipac money.

    Among the neocons, a faction that is particularly odious and obnoxious including people like Bolton, but even total hacks like "Dr. Corosee (the man behind the infamous swift boat ads), Timmerman (running right now peddle stories about Iran and Al Queda) and a bunch of similar folks are open advocates of using the MEK against Iran. One of their top spokesman, Jaffarzadeh of the MEK front organization National Council of Resistance, was also hired by FOX and served as their "Middle East analyst".

    Thanks to google, you can do your own research. All of it is public record, and even Israel's support for the MEK is not well disguised. After all, their satellite station is operated by an Israeli group! And their "nuclear revelations" are all known by everyone, including the IAEA, to be fed by Israel.

    Almost every story you read that is baseless, and a lie, ultimately can be traced to the numerous media and propaganda organs set up by these folks. They adopt different titles and change their names but their tactics give them away. Their usual tactic is to lie. To make up stuff, without any constraint about being credible. The purpose of their lies (and many forgeries) is to give some people an "Iranian dissident" source to then reprint the lies in more mainstream media.
     
  7. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok sport, I did not make a baseless accusation therefore the burden to prove my point is not on me but on the one making the accusation. He said MEK, I said prove it. Speaking of which, where is your proof? Back it up or don't bring it up.
     
  8. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    To set yourself up in a position to want to "judge" an issue, you have to be unbiased. You are not.

    I already mentioned that everything I said is public record. If you want to go through each point, just do you own research. Indeed, on this very thread, in the Newsweek article I posted, you will find substantiation for the fact that Israel uses the MEK to make allegations regarding Iran's nuclear program.

    As a general source, however, to get a picture of how many countries play footsie with this terrorist band, here is from the online encyclopedia wikipedia:

     
  9. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh yeah lets talk about bias and who is or isn't. Do as I say not as I do right?

    Again no proof, calling for the lifting of the designation is not the same as funding them. You can do better. And again, I did not make the claim, if you want to claim something then back it up, as it is right now, I am calling bull shi{t} on your claims.
     
  10. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  11. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  12. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Your opinion are not particularly important to me. As I have mentioned, you believe that it is okay to lie to advance your bias. I don't.

    For others who read these pages, besides the political support they have recieved, as well as financial support from Israel, here is how the US is actually using them to infiltrate Iran.

     
  13. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    IM the biggest anti-semite on these boards is calling me biased? OMG you are a fvcking joke pal. You are a coward who is afraid to live in Iran and certainly would never serve in any armed forces. You daily print bs about how Iran is this and Iran is that, then when asked to back up your crappy lies you can't. Instead you goto disreputable sites and claim them as accurate. What a load of crap you are.

    The US does not support MEK. You have not proved it cause it cannot be proven. There I am calling you a liar IM. You are a racist, you are racist against America, even though you live here and benefit from the greatest country on Earth. You are racist against Jews. Bet you hate Blacks too right?

    You support Iran's efforts to break international law in trying to develop a nuke. You support Iran's backing of a real terror outfit named Hezbollah and cheer when they kill any Israelis.

    I have less then zero respect for you because you are not a man. You are a coward who hides in the US and uses the freedoms that come with living in America to spew your hate and false statements. You slander the country that gives you the freedom to slander it. I look forward to when you return, if you really do, to Iran as it means we will no longer have to sift through your meaningless posts here on BS. Why do I say that? Cause once you are back in Iran, you will not be allowed to post on sites like BS. If you could even find a place to connect to the WWW.
     
  14. BenReilly

    BenReilly New Member

    Apr 8, 2002
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Don't confuse someone who makes up stories, with someone who is a vigorous advocate of an unpopular position. I consider it corrupting that the "other side" is not properly represented in American public discourse. Indeed, that is what allows some of the outrageous lies and false perceptions about Iran to cloud the real issues that might need to be debated in America.

    Some of the lies implicate issues I have personal knowledge about. For instance, this stupid notion (now advanced by scarecrow) that Iranians in Iran cannot connect ot the internet and read bigsoccer. Nonsense. Millions of Iranians are connected to the internet, including some who regularly post from Iran in various English language website that are clearly anti-regime in orientation. While Iran does filter a few very overtly political sites, those are almost all in Persian. Otherwise, except for pornographic sites, the worldwide web is open to Iranians inside Iran. This is something I know for a fact as I have many relatives in Iran.
     
  16. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
    By all means.

    Well, it does take you some time to invent things (like a US invasion through Azeri land!) so its better you spared your imagination the taxing effort. However, sadly, you're wrong. So long as the US eliminates Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons, they don't care whether you, your grandmother or the mullahs are in charge.

    Are you insane? They've publicly stated it!

    Baseless assumption and irrelevant to the discussion. Your anti-Americanism has nothing to do with the matter at hand.

    Of course it can. How do you think Israel took care of an Iraqi reactor in the 80s? Throwing flowers on it?

    Do you really think the US is unable to monitor such things? The US spy program, augmented with English, Israeli and other help, is the best the world has ever seen. If they so wanted, they could carpet bomb Iran to ensure that no potential nuclear facility remained operational.

    I don't think you understand that an air war and an "air strike" are not the same thing.
    As for oil - hahahahahahahaha.

     
  17. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
    You know, if Stalin arose as a zombie and needed a press secretary, I couldn't think of a more perfect choice than IM, the man who tried to claim Iran's "democracy" was more democratic than the United States.
    I'm sure IM would explain Stalin's feasting on the brains of Russians as merely a "Russian concept" which "paled in comparison to Bush's oil lust".
     
  18. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I find it very telling that he did not even try to deny his racism against America and Jews.
     
  19. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Well, I for one am not here to trade in these silly insults...

    I found this article interesting. It relates to a political cartoon carried by a newspaper in Bahrain and Iran's attempts to flex its muscle. The Bahrainis have apologized for the cartoon, but not after Iran organized a large protest in Bahrain among Bahraini shias denouncing the newspaper. I should note that Bahrain hosts a US base and that is an issue of friction between Iran and Bahrain as well.

     
  20. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Before I call it a night, I also like to post some pictures of the actual troops that make up Iran's armed forces. Reading some reports in the Western press, you would think these guys have horns and tails. Or, alternatively, that they are all religious fanatics. Because fo religious reasons, members of Iran's armed forces are permitted not to shave their facial hair, but as you will note, most are clean shaven.

    Airforce cadets
    [​IMG]

    Army:
    [​IMG]

    Revolutionary Guards:
    [​IMG]

    Special Forces:
    [​IMG]
     
  21. JBigjake

    JBigjake Member+

    Nov 16, 2003
    try $125 billion. haven't seen your stats, try these:
    http://www.undp.org/hdr2001/indicator/indic_18_1_1.html
    http://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2003/tables/table1-1.pdf
    http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/littledata/113.pdf
    http://www.albany.edu/history/middle-east/iran.htm
    http://www.payvand.com/news/05/apr/1111.html
     
  22. !Bob

    !Bob Member

    Apr 28, 2005
    UK
    In the words of the wise; "and I see your true colours are shining through".

    If you had read my post, you would see that I took that from another analyst. If you want to accuse someone of over-flexing their imagination, try that guy. I had addressed everything you said in your reply but you still went on to make unnecessary explanations. I gave possible reasons for an American attack, one of them being the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Don't forget how Bush's reasonings changed with regards to the war in Iraq. WMD to start with, liberation to end with. I wanted to cover all possible basis since you don't know what line of reasoning people could take and how that could change as circumstances change.
    My understanding of threat was nuclear weapons. Thanks for showing that any peaceful nuclear technology and economic benefits for Iran are also deemed as a threat.

    Unless your statement is indicating that Iran has publicly stated their nuclear weapons program. :confused:


    Sarcasm. It's a funny thing. Plus by saying the media is biased in America and warps the views of the public I'm being anti-American. Again thanks.


    More lack of knowledge on the subject. If you had read or followed the reasonings for the difficulties in dealing with Iran you would know how wrong your arguments are. Iraq had everything in one installation and it was widely known where everything was. Bit of the difference from the situation in Iran and one of the main reasons analysts are very optimistic at the effectiveness of tactical air strikes.


    True it is the best spy program probably and we saw how accurate it was on Iraqi WMDs. The post by Ben regarding Bigjake's question is from Fox. If someone on Fox says there may be installations we don't know about, you should pick up some clues.

    I bet you said that (and maybe still saying it) for Iraq too.


    So just to recap, you said there was no indiscriminate bombings in WWII and when I gave you examples of nukes, firebombings and Germany you came up with this. First of all, thanks for stating that there was reason in these specifically targeted civilian populations. Secondly, if you're gonna make claims that the other person doesn't know what the word is, you should first know what it means. Or you could just check in a dictionary, here I'll help you; Mr Webster can be helpful in these case;

    http://www.webster.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=indiscriminate&x=0&y=0

    1 a : not marked by careful distinction : deficient in discrimination and discernment



    Sorry I thought you said Iraq war was won by air strikes!! I guess small landing of marines and the small number of troops in Iraq are just for fun. A war is not complete until the objectives are met. Have the objectives of the Iraq been met yet (depending on which objective you go by again). Just because Bush goes on TV saying we've won and it's finished doesn't make it the case. If the war had truely been finished the soldiers would be back home instead of dying in Iraq.

    Now I can safely put you in the Bush camp. So I assume this liberation was the purpose from the beginning and WMDs were just a side issue that happened to be mentioned too many times at the beginning and somehow the Brits misunderstanding and using WMDs as the reason for war since the Attorney General's (Lord Goldsmith) report specifically stated that a war for liberation as it's primary reason is illegal


    Sorry but I didn't know such wars were really allowed. Again thanks for showing the American perspective (and I hope not all Americans think this way). America cannot attack a country with the sole purpose of turning it into a "crater". I doubt the rest of the world will be too happy and even if America is the only superpower, I doubt it could go up against the rest of the world. It doesn't happen because of the dire consequences but it has happened in the past where one nation thought too highly of themselves and you being the history expert will probably know what I'm talking about...;)


    This might be a case of dumb and dumber and then you. I said "I'm pretty sure Napolean's tactics did not involve air superiority and destruction of key military and command installations before or during the invasion." Any military tactics, even if you ask a 5 year old would involve destruction of key enemy installations. It doesn't take a genius to figure that one out. If you read my line, it is being sarcastic refering to air strikes to destory installation before or during the attack. If it is too difficult for you to understand I'll try drawing diagrams next time.

    Now can we please quit it with these stupid e-penis arguments? If you are here for a proper discussion, then fine but if you want to randomly attack me just for the sake of doing it and distorting the point of the argument. Maybe I am being too mature...
     
  23. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    As I mentioned, Iran's GDP (purchasing power parity index) is over $500 billion. Indeed, 2004 estimates are $516.7 billion. See:
    http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/fields/2001.html

    Iran's growth year this year is around 7%. Last year (2004) it was 6.3%. See:
    http://www.indexmundi.com/iran/gdp_real_growth_rate.html

    Real US dollar GDP is totally irrelevant in terms of giving you a comparative understanding of economic conditions in various countries. They only tell you how much US dollars are available in one country as opposed to another and are helpful only if an economy relies on US dollars for its operation. Otherwise, different economic systems and exchange rates make $1000 (US) in one country give a totally different life style than in another country.

    Let me give you this example to highlight the issue somewhat. If you understand GDP, it stands for the total value of good and services produced in a country in a given year. That figure is perforce a fraction of a country's national government budget. That is because a government does not control 100% of economic activity in most countries, and besides, each dollar spent has what is referred to as the "multiplier effect".

    With that preface in my mind, what do you think was Iran's government budget last year, and what do you think it is this year? Here is a hint, even the government budget is much higher than those GDP (US dollar) figures!

    Due to various reasons, I shoudl note, Iran will be trying very hard to deal what might become the final death knell in US dollar even being as important in international trade as it has been. Iran is trying to set up an alternative exchange system, beginning in the oil industry. If successful, that would constitute a major blow to the US economy, since the American economy is in large measure propped up artificially by the demand in US dollars for international trade etc.

    While I do NOT agree with this article by Pravda , trying to give this as the motivation for any US war against Iran, nonetheless I post this article because it refers to the issue which was brought up not long ago by the Financial Times as well. If Iran succeeds in that quest, and the dollar is no longer such an important denomination, "US dollar GDP figures" will mean even less as the US dollar itself will no longer become a benchmark. Even now, they don't mean much for comparative basis, but they do have some significant for international trade.

    Again, before any silly argumets, I don't rely on Pravda for my news or anything, but this is a recent article that touches on a point that has been covered (but not sufficiently) in the Western press.

     
  24. !Bob

    !Bob Member

    Apr 28, 2005
    UK
    I read something about this and how Iran was one of the major players in an attempt to influence OPEC to change from dollar to euro however I was under the impression that this was for all purposes nullified when KSA stood firm against it. There is question as to the close relations between the US and KSA and given the influence KSA yields within other Arab nations (and hence OPEC), it seemed unlikely that this would happen. However, having said that, the possibility still remains in particular since things are not exactly stable in KSA. Hence it could be possible that America may wish to get rid of even that possibility of change.

    It should be noted that other world economies would also suffer should this move happen. The economics are very complicated but there was something in the FT regarding talks that Japan was making possible moves towards Euro but not fully...in order to stabalise their economy... I am afraid that I cannot fully remember the article.
     
  25. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    The GDP figure I gave for Iran, incidentally, was based on CIA estimates but they are derived from the same figures you find at the IMF and the World Bank. You just have to look at the right index (purchasing power). Overall, Iran's rank 19th in the world in terms of GDP (purchasing power indiex) right now. It ranked 21st in 2003 and is expected to rank among the top 10 by the next decade.

    Here is an article on Iran's national budget for this fiscal year.
     

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